Boy did I take a beating. I thought for sure that the Rams were the one team that was going to be the surprise from last weekend, but alas it was the Commanders, and for that, I lost a ton. Gotta make some of that back this weekend so that I can find enough prop bets in the Super Bowl to finish well this season. But, it all starts today. And I hope, like all of us, that we do not have to see Jalen Hurts throw for 116 yards in the Super Bowl.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Washington Commanders +6 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
This spread opened at 4 1/2, and enough money came in on the Eagles to move this 2 whole points. That is insane. My only guess is that dumb people make dumb bets (as the readers of this blog can attest!) But lets delve a bit deeper into this. Washingon and Philadelphia split the season series, with the Eagles winning at home in Week 11 26-18, and Washington winning at home in week 16 36-33, but this is the game in which Jalen Hurts left with a concussion. That being said, the Commanders have now won 7 in a row, and are playing much better than in week 11. Plus, if you add to the fact that Philadelphia may lose some key players, including those on the offensive line, to injury, or at the very least they willnot be playing 100%, and this has the feeling of a game that should be within a touchdown. Because of that, I will take 6 1/2 points.
Washington Commanders +235 at Philadelphia (Bet $100 to win $235)
If I had a gun to my head, I would actually bet Philadelphia to win this game. Close, but to win it. Both teams like to rush the ball, with Philly second in the NFL and Washington third (but over a 25 yards per game difference between them), but Philly is better against the rush (10th) than the Commanders (30th). But when the running game slows down, Washington's pass offense was 17th in yards, but with Daniels make key - and I mean KEY - throws. The Eagles are 29th in the league in passing offense, despite having A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. Terry McLaurin has proven he can come up big, and with the money line favoring a bet on Washington here, versus being -285/-290 for Philadelphia, I have to take it, and hope for another upset.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 46 1/2
I really have no reason to pick either the over or the under on this one, so I am just going to try to hope for a fun, high-scoring game. given that the teams combine to score an average of 55.6 points per game (although they only give up 40.8), I expect at least 1 quick score each, meaning I only need 33 points for the rest of the game.
Buffalo Bills +2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Lots of people have lost lots of money betting against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in big spots. But, this year just FEELS different. Yes the Chiefs won home-field advantage with a 15-2 record, but most of their wins were close, and one of the losses was 30-21 at these same Buffalo Bills. Statistically Buffalo is better on offense (12th versus 17th total; 9th versus 14th passing; 9th versus 22nd rushing; 2nd versus 15th scoring), with Kansas City being better on defense (8th versus 19th total; 18th versus 24th passing; 8th versus 12th rushing, 4th versus 11th scoring). I feel that James Cook (along with Ty Johnson and Ray Davis) could be the difference with Cook having gained 281 more yards that Kareem Hunt on only 7 more carries. If Buffalo gets up, then perhaps Patrick Mahomes throws a key interception or fumbles during a run trying to get a first down. And, the lack of super-talented wide-receivers has to come back to haunt the Chiefs as Travis Kelce cannot continue to operate as the only option through the air.
Buffalo Bills +110 at Kansas City Chiefs (Bet $100 to win $110)
I hate betting on both underdogs today, as usually the best way to get to the Super Bowl is to be the better team, and Philadelphia and Kansas City have been the better teams all year, excpet Buffalo and Kansas City seem even, and the odds with the +110 are better to me that the -130, when trying to dig out of a hole. (Ed. note - Children, this is a horrible reason to place a wager). Back to the analysis, Buffalo makes enough plays to win and head back to the Super Bowl for the first time in a long time.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 48 1/2
Only because we have seen this play out before in the playoffs, with someone trying to outscore Patrick Mahomes, creating a shootout mentality among both teams.
Big Bets:
Washington Commanders +6 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
This spread opened at 4 1/2, and enough money came in on the Eagles to move this 2 whole points. That is insane. My only guess is that dumb people make dumb bets (as the readers of this blog can attest!) But lets delve a bit deeper into this. Washingon and Philadelphia split the season series, with the Eagles winning at home in Week 11 26-18, and Washington winning at home in week 16 36-33, but this is the game in which Jalen Hurts left with a concussion. That being said, the Commanders have now won 7 in a row, and are playing much better than in week 11. Plus, if you add to the fact that Philadelphia may lose some key players, including those on the offensive line, to injury, or at the very least they willnot be playing 100%, and this has the feeling of a game that should be within a touchdown. Because of that, I will take 6 1/2 points.
Most of my analysis is complete, but this is my big bet simply because I am taking the points. It is that simple.
Record
Last Week's Record: 4-7-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-2
Year-to-Date Record: 149-142-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 10-12
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($901.15)
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1,502.65)
