Another .500 week, but with the Big Bet being spot-on again, I inch a little closer to the break-even point. (Yes, I know that cursed me to lose the big bet this week.) So, a winning record overall, and just a bit in the red for the year, it might be time for me to make my move. Also, starting off with a Thursday win that practically everybody doubted is a good start.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks...
Houston Texans +14 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Home team on a short week.
Miami Dolphins -4 at Chicago Bears
The Bears have some good young cornerbacks in Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, but against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle the problem is that they are young. Oh yeah, and Johnson is out. Give me Tuanigamanuolepola for the win!
Minnesota Vikings -3 at Washington Commanders
I really hate taking two road favorites in a row, but I feel like I have to do that here. Taylor Heinecke is a decent option at quarterback, but this teams just doesn't score enough points. For Washington to have a chance, they are going to have to get off the field on third-down, something that they are third-best in the NFL at doing. They just don't have enough firepower.
Carolina Panthers +7 at Cincinnati Bengals
Honestly, I think Cincinnati is angry at how they lost Monday night and might be raring to come out firing against a bad Panthers team. However, their firepower is limited without J'Marr Chase (Higgins and Boyd are excellent, but Chase just puts so much pressure on a defense.) Plus, it is a short week for Cincinnati.
Buffalo Bills -11 at New York Jets
This is preposterous. An 11 point favorite on the road in an intra-divisional battle. However, I am so old that I remember when the Jets were on eof the best passing teams in the league. That was way back when Joe Flacco was starting and not third-string, a postition to which he was recently demoted. Now, the Jets are 14th in passing. The Bills, are 1st in total offense, 3rd in scoring offense, 1st in scoring defense, and 3rd in total defense. Loooooooong day for Zach Wilson.
New England Patriots -5 v. Indianapolis Colts
These Patriots might be the worst 4-4 team of all time. They are 21st in total offense, 19th in total defense, but would you want to go against a Belichick defense if you were a rooke quarterback, huh Sam Ehlinger?
Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders
All of Jacksonville's losses have been within 1 score, which means they will keep in close. Never trust a west coast team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, as they fail to cover approximately 2/3 of the time. Plus, Darren Waller is out.
Detroit Lions +4 v. Green Bay Packers
A home underdog in a division rivalry game always seems right. But, especially this game as Green Bay must be downtrodden after doing ABSOLUTELY NOTHING at the trade deadline, including losing Chase Claypool to the Bears because Pittsburgh thinks Chicago's 2nd round draft pick will be higher than Green Bay's. Perhaps not the way Green Bay is playing.
Atlanta Falcons +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
First, the Chargers (along with the Raiders) have to be the most disappointing team in the NFL. As far as this game goes, Atlanta is 5th in rushing, and the Chargers are 27th in rushing defense. The Falcons are 6th in scoring and Los Angeles is 31st in scoring defense. Plus, the Chargers are a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time zone slot. Wait, anybody know the numbers on this during "fall back" weekeng?
Seattle Seahawks +2 at Arizona Cardinals
Seattle, seriously, is the 4th-highest scoring team in the NFL. Arizona is the 30th-ranked scoring defense team. Plus, Kenneth Walker moving into the starting lineup has been a serious game-changer for Seattle. This kid is a star!
Los Angeles Rams +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I honestly didn't know what to do with this game at first. Both teams are disappointing, and are not playing up to their potential. These are the two worst rushing offenses in the league. Both have pretty good to great defenses. I'll just take points.
Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
Double digits are always a lot, but double digit favorites have covered more than they should have already this year. Patrick Mahomes and his #2 passing offense in the NFL is facing the 24th-ranked passing defense. And, he has a new toy in Kadarius Toney (to go with Kelce, Smith-Schuster, Hardman, et. al.). Derrick Henry is still a beast, but Kansas City can slow him down by taking a big lead (and they have the 3rd best rushing defense.) Plus, a rookie quarterback is making a start after only throwing 10 passes in his starting debut last week. Kansas City it is.
Baltimore Ravens -2 at New Orleans Saints
Do not let the 5-3 record deceive you, this Ravens team lost a few games at the very end. They are still losses, but it means they are better than New Orleans. Andy Dalton might throw for quite a few yards, but the Ravens should run all over the Saints. Both teams do a good job of converting 3rd downs (9th/8th), and stopping 3rd downs (8th/6th), so whichever team wins that battle will likely win the game. My guess is Baltimore because of Lamar's scrambling ability.
Byes: Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers
Big Bet:
Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
Double digits are always a lot, but double digit favorites have covered more than they should have already this year. Patrick Mahomes and his #2 passing offense in the NFL is facing the 24th-ranked passing defense. And, he has a new toy in Kadarius Toney (to go with Kelce, Smith-Schuster, Hardman, et. al.). Derrick Henry is still a beast, but Kansas City can slow him down by taking a big lead (and they have the 3rd best rushing defense.) Plus, a rookie quarterback is making a start after only throwing 10 passes in his starting debut last week. Kansas City it is.
This bet is absolutely nuts for a big bet. No way should I take a prime time game with this big of a spread. But seriously, Malik Willis, albeit talented, is a rookie that did not have much big game experience in college. A Kansas City touchdown plus a key turnover on the next drive makes this a two touchdown lead very quickly. Other games considered, Miami (except they are on the road), Jacksonville (except they are Jacksonville), Seattle (they are on the road), and New England (quarterback issues and competition with Jones v. Zappe.) If Zappe was starting, I would have New England here.
Last Week's Record: 7-7-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 59-58-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 5-2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $80
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($280)
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