Picks of the Week

You can see my record for last week down below, but I am not commenting on the games here, except to say we at WeMakeItRain wish nothing but the speediest of recoveries to Damar Hamlin and the best to his family.  Also, major kudos to the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals training and medical staff for performing exactly how I am sure they expected, in a situation they never expect to occur!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Las Vegas Raiders +9 v. Kansas City Chiefs -9

Two serious betting rules (at least for this year) could conflict in this game.  First, I (almost) always want to take the home team on a short week, and Saturday games are a short week.  But, this year the team that plays the San Francisco 49ers are 1-14 this year the week AFTER playing the Niners.  Well, the betting gods help us here with a 9 point spread, because the Raiders can cover as the home team on a short week AND lose the game.

Jacksonville Jaguars -6 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Home team on a short week, AND also just the better team.  The defenses are similar (25th/23rd overall; 15th/T12th scoring), but the offenses are way different.  Jacksonville is 8th in total offense with a really balanced rushing (10th) and passing (10th) game.  Tennessee is 30th in total offense and 29th in scoring offense.  Jaguars to the playoffs after covering.

Minnesota Vikings -6 at Chicago Bears

Nathan Peterman throws for more interceptions than yards (148/127) as the Bears secure the number 1 overall pick.

Houston Texans +3 at Indianapolis Colts

Like I said, the Bears secure the number 1 overall pick.  

Cincinnati Bengals -9 v. Baltimore Ravens

Under ordinary circumstances, this spread is way too large, except, the Bengals will be keyed up after having last week's game canceled, Lamar Jackson is out again this week, and the Bengals want to guarantee that a coin flip doesn't keep them from hosting a home playoff game if they play the Ravens next week.  Baltimore has scored 13, 17, 13, 16, and 10 the last 5 games.  That should be easy for Cincinnati to cover as Baltimore has the 24th ranked passing defense in the NFL.

New York Jets + 3 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Getting points in a close divisional game?  Yes please.  Plus, Skylar Thompson is starting at qurterback for the Dolphins.  For a team that has been bouncing back and forth between Tuanigamanualepola Tagavailoa, Teddy Bridgewater, and Skylar Thompson, Thompson is looking to be the first Dolphins backup quarterback to finish a game he started.  If not, Mike Glennon and his neck could make an appearance.  Joe Flacco starting in what is likely his final NFL game.

Carolina Panthers +3 at New Orleans Saints

Honestly, I didn't give this game much thought, just taking the points.  Carolina has played better under Sam Darnold lately.

New England Patriots +7 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Buffalo will be highly emotional, but let's not forget they lost 2 defensive backs in the short time against Cincinnati, and they have not been playing great prior to last week.  New England has an opportunity to make the playoffs with a win, they are out if they lose.  That is enough to keep this game close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 at Atlanta Falcons

Tampa Bay has already clinched the NFC South, but the way they have been playing they cannot afford to rest players or to take their foot off the gas.  They need this game as preparation, so they will play hard - at least hard enough to cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh has an outside chance at the playoffs (Patriots loss, Dolphins loss) both of which could legitimately happen.  Since all 3 of those games will be happening simultaneously, I expect Pittsburgh to come out firing against the Browns.

Los Angeles Rams +6 at Seattle Seahawks

Yes the Seahawks have playoffs on their mind, but I don't think they have enough firepower to cover this spread, even if they win.

Los Angeles Chargers +3 at Denver Broncos

Even though the Chargers don't have much to play for (they are already in the playoffs, and locked into 5 or 6, no first round home game no matter what), they will play starters at least a half, as Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams all need to shake off the rust from all the games Allen and Williams missed.  That is enough to keep it close.

New York Giants +14 at Philadelphia Eagles

My normal site has no number on this game, likely because the Jalen Hurts situation (will he or won't he play) is up in the air.  But, vegas insider shows all other sportsbooks between 14 and 14 1/2, so I will take the fewer of those two choices.

Arizona Cardinals +14 at San Francisco 49ers

Two consecutive two-touchdown underdogs in a stellar David Blough v. Brock Purder thriller.  I'll take those points, even though San Francisco will be hoping for the number 1 overall seed.

Dallas Cowboys -7 at Washington Commanders

Betting on Washington has done me will this year, but not recently.  Plus even though Carson Wentz is starting, they have announced rookie Sam Howell will play.  Sam Howell, meet Micah Parsons.

Green Bay Packers -4 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

The Lions have been a great story this year, but doesn't this entire Packers season feel like it ends in a first round playoff loss with Aaron Rodgers criticizing the coaching?

Big Bet:

Minnesota Vikings -6 at Chicago Bears

Nathan Peterman throws for more interceptions than yards (148/127) as the Bears secure the number 1 overall pick.

Plus, Minnesota is fighting for the first-round bye (along with Philadelphia and San Francisco).  

Last Week's Record:  8-6-1-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  130-115-8-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $290

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $175

Picks of the Week

I still don't know if that Space Force team is any good (way too inside of a joke.)  Anyway, albeit small, another winning week.  I will keep taking wins over losses.  No more byes means 16 games from here through the end of the regular season.  Hope that is a good thing.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Seattle Seahawks +3 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Yes, San Francisco is waaaaay better, and yes Seattle has fallen off a cliff.  But man, I didn't realize the cliff was THAT high.  Well, home team on a short week isn't a 100% lock (although hopefully the rule occurs a lot more this week - foreshadowing.

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Minnesota took it on the chin last week, but a loss to Detroit is not the laugher that it ordinarily was.  Indianapolis' defense is pretty stout (5th overall), but they give up points (21st).  Minnesota is looking to clinch the division, and is at home on this Saturday game.  Interesting note, for teams that have Jonathan Taylor and Dalvin Cook, they are horrible at rushing the ball (Colts - 26th/Vikings - 27th.)

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

I do not like this line at all.  But, the rules are there for a reason, take the home team on a short week.  Although not impressive Tyler Huntley has been more than serviceable, and even beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh last week - with the Steelers playing much tougher since TJ Watt has returned.  Nevertheless, and despite the San Francisco win, or perhaps because of it, I will stay with the home team and just not like the pick.

Buffalo Bills -7 v. Miami Dolphins

Yes Miami beat the Bills last time they played, but did you watch the game?  The Bills beat the pants off of Miami, they just didn't win.  Plus, being a Saturday night game, another short week/home team bet.  I would have liked this spread to have been about 4 1/2 or 5 though.

Chicago Bears +9 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Only because the Bears should be rested after a bye week.

New Orleans Saints -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

You cannot get much worse that Atlanta's passing offense (31st in passing; 28th overall), but then you insert a rookie quarterback.  Good luck Desmond Ridder.

Jacksonville Jaguars +4 v. Dallas Cowboys

Jacksonville has been playing well of late and Trevor Lawrence (passer rating of 95.4) is starting to emerge as the franchise quarterback that the Jaguars thought they were drafting.  Dallas may still win this, but it should be close.

Detroit Lions + 1/2 at New York Jets

Zach Wilson!!!  Yes the Jets defense might be good enough to slow down the Lions, but I do not think the Jets offense is good enough to score - well, at least not score enough (Insert generic Zach Wilson's mom's friend joke here!)

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

I honestly don't know what to do here.  The Steelers defense have been playing amazing the last 3 weeks, giving up 16, 16 and 17 points, but Sam Darnold has also been playing well.  Kenny Pickett is doubtful, but does that make Pittsburgh better, or worse?  In a tough betting situation, I take the points.

Houston Texans + 14 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs, even in winning, have looked a bit sluggish.  The chance to clinch the division notwithstanding, I am not sure what this game with Houston really means to them.  I am not saying Houston will win, but more than two touchdowns is a lot of points when betting.

Las Vegas Raiders -1 v. New England Patriots

Las Vegas has won 3 of the last 4, and only lost by one in last week's loss to the Rams.  New England is playing on a short week, having beaten Arizona on Monday night.

Denver Broncos -1 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals are on a short week, and it looks like a Brett Rypien-Colt McCoy matchup to miss.  Whatever the under is - TAKE IT!  Even if it is 12.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 v. Tennessee Titans

This team is SOOOOO much different - and better - with Mike Williams on the field, not to mention Mike Williams and Keenan Allen!

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I am surprised that the Florida Gator fans in central/southwest Florida are not clamoring for Kyle Trask yet.  Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are both questionable, but with J'Marr Chase playing, if only one of them plays, Tampa could be in for a loooooong day.

New York Giants +4 1/2 at Washington Commanders

I fully expect the Commanders to win this game and eventually make the playoffs.  However, these teams did just play to a 20-20 tie two weeks ago.  With the Giants getting routed last week by Philly, and the Commanders coming off their bye, I expect this not to be a tie, but a 3-point win for Washington.

Los Angeles Rams +7 at Green Bay Packers

I am not saying that Baker Mayfield is the end-all/be-all for the Rams.  But, he is more exciting than John Wolford, and Baker has a full week of practice.  Plus, there is no way that this line should be a full touchdown.  That is the ridiculous part - even if Green Bay wins.

Big Bet:

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Minnesota took it on the chin last week, but a loss to Detroit is not the laugher that it ordinarily was.  Indianapolis' defense is pretty stout (5th overall), but they give up points (21st).  Minnesota is looking to clinch the division, and is at home on this Saturday game.  Interesting note, for teams that have Jonathan Taylor and Dalvin Cook, they are horrible at rushing the ball (Colts - 26th/Vikings - 27th.)

I am getting the big bet out-of-the-way early.  This is my big bet because Minnesota is likely angry, they can clinch the division, and the "Noon Nightmare" will have a huge game.

Last Week's Record:  8-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  104-96-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-5-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $85

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($155)

Picks of the Week

My head is still spinning from the tumultuous Space Force - Coast Guard college game last night.  If you don't know - ask me about it.  Hope I can get that conversation out of my head and concentrate on today's game to keep up my winning streak, as last week was very good!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Los Angeles Rams + 6 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Baker Mayfield comeback notwithstanding, home team on a short week wins again.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh has won 3 of its last 4, and Baltimore is without Lamar Jackson.  Pittsburgh has been playing a lot better since T.J. Watt returned.

Minnesota Vikings +2 1/2 at Detroit Lions

This line is utterly ridiculous, and it seems way too obvious to pick the Vikings.  Not quite sure why I am doing it then, but, I have to.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville is better offensively than the Titans (11th to 29th), and even in rushing (10th to 15th), and exactly the same defensively (both T25th overall).  Sounds like I will take the points in what should be a close game.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 at New York Giants

The third overall offense and the 2nd overall defense versus the Giants, who are in the bottom third of each.  Philly rolls.

New York Jets +10 at Buffalo Bills

Double digits is a big spread against a team that has recently made a dramatic upgrade at quarterback in Mike White, and which beat the Bills just over a mvonth ago.

Cincinnati Bengals -5 v. Cleveland Browns

DeShaun Watson looked pedestrian against the Texans last week.  Another week of practice should help, but playing the Bengals will not.  Joe Burrow leads a Cincinnati team that is 4th in passing to a bunch of scores.

Houston Texans +17 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

I really want to take the Cowboys here just to say I did, but if I lost because Houston covers, I would be kicking myself.  If I lose this bet as it stands, I still stand by my bet.

Kansas City Chiefs -8 1/2 at Denver Broncos

The Chiefs lead the NFL in scoring, whereas Denver doesn't score.  This might be a bit too many points for a divisional rival, though, so I don't feel safe with this one.

San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brock Purdy looked pretty good last week, but more importantly, Tampa Bay played Monday night.

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

I bet Carolina wishes they had a quarterback as good as Geno Smith.  Hell, I bet they wish they had a quarterback as good as Baker Mayfield.

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

I wonder how the travel of the last two weeks affects the Dolphins (they played at San Francisco last week).  They are still better than the Chargers and their 27th ranked defense, so the Dolphins' 4th ranked total offense should move the ball and score.

New England Patriots -1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

I honestly cannot believe I am giving up points here, but the Patriots are on a two-game losing streak, and who thinks Belichick loses three in a row?  Also, the Patriots defense is solid (7th in total defense, T7th in scoring defense), whereas Arizona is next-to-last in giving up points.

Byes:  Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints, Washington Commanders

Big Bet:

Minnesota Vikings +2 1/2 at Detroit Lions

This line is utterly ridiculous, and it seems way too obvious to pick the Vikings.  Not quite sure why I am doing it then, but, I have to.

This pick literally pains me, as I have been a huge proponent of betting on the Lions, but, in this case they are giving up points.  In the 1:p.m. game slot, the Noon Nightmare strikes again.

Last Week's Record:  9-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  96-91-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-4-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $390

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($240)

NFL Conference Championship Picks of the Week

Jacksonville looked strong, and Atlanta and Pittsburgh disappointed me last week.  Oh well, on to this week's conference championship games.  Like last week, I will be the line, money line and over/under.  The Money Line gives me the opportunity to make up big chunks of my deficit without extra bets, or extra money placed on the game.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars +8 at New England Patriots
That defense can be so dominating.  I am not saying they will shut down the Patriots offense completely, but they can get to Tom Brady with just 4 lineman.  This is especially true on obvious passing downs when they can pair Dante Fowler on the inside with Marcell Dareus and keep both Calais Cambell and Yannick Ngakoue on the outside.  The corners can be physical with the Patriots receivers, and knock them off their routes.  Tom Brady will still be Tom Brady, but can the rest of the offense compete, especially on the line?

Jacksonville Jaguars +290 (Bet $100 to win $290)
For all the reasons that I stated above, plus Leonard Fournette is so strong that he can keep the chains moving.  That being said, I honestly think the Patriots will win this game, but at a -$440 opening line (now -$350) the incentive to pick New England just isn't there.  I can bet $100 on the Jags to win $290, or I can bet $350 on the Patriots to win $100.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots UNDER 45 1/2
I hate taking the under, but this game does have Blake Bortles going against Bill Belichick's defense.  Jacksonville's defense as well.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Minnesota Vikings
I believe I learned my lesson last week in not taking a road favorite in Philadelphia.  If it was a point or two less, I would take Minnesota, as I think they are going to win outright, but I feel this is going to be a close game as both defenses were superb last week.  Philly's corners may give up a big play or two to Diggs and/or Thielen make the difference.

Minnesota Vikings -$150 at Philadelphia Eagles
For the reasons stated above - the Eagles corners will give up a couple of big or important plays.  Yes, I have to put up $150 to win $100, but the Eagles are only +$135.  My gut says Minnesota wins, so I will take that play here.

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 38 1/2
What a ridiculously low over/under line.  24-17 hits the over.  I'll take it.  Yes the defenses are great, but that also means that after some 3-and-outs the offense will take over in good field position.  I will take the over.

Big Bet
New England Patriots -$650 v. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee has no chance to advance.

Last Week's Record: 5-7
Playoff Record - 12-12
Last Week's Big Bet: 2-0
Year-to-Date Record:  136-136-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  11-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($370)
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  ($170)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1380)