Picks of the Week

 

With no preseason, and only sporadic reports from various training camps, I expected disaster in week 1, and although I finished down, it was virtually a .500 week.  Now, I know it is easy to overexaggerate week's 1 performances, but with a bit more of knowledge than this time last week, I am excited about entering this week's picks.  Of course, I wrote this before looking at the points spreads.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals +6 at Cleveland Browns
Generally I try to take the home team on the Thursday night's game, but for some reason I feel like something was wrong in Cleveland.  Now, the Browns' offense woke up, but I am happy to take the back-door cover thanks to a Joe Burrow, who definitely looks like he belongs in this league.

Chicago Bears - 5 1/2 v. New York Giants

Giants go on the road after playing Monday night is the primary reason why I am taking my beloved Bears.  Plus, Robert Quinn is making his season debut, which should help free up some more space for Khalil Mack on defense. Now, perhaps the Chicago offensive coaching staff can actually put in an up-tempo offensive, perhaps with a bit of no huddle, as that is clearly where Trubisky operates best.

Carolina Panthers + 8 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carolina acquitted themselves very well asgainst what I think is going to be a very good Raiders team.  Tampa Bay didn't fare very well last week, but a lot of teams are going to look that bad against the Saints (Brady Pick 6 to Janoris Jenkins!!!).  Buccaneers playing without Chris Godwin this week, and with McCaffrey, the Panthers can control the ball so that this score does not get out of control.  I will take the 8 1/2.

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 at Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville surprised the league last week taking down the Colts at home.  This week, they travel to Nashville, where the Titans are coming off a lackluster win against Denver on Monday night.  I am taking the points because of the Titans' short week.

Atlanta Falcons +3 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
Dallas did not look very good against Aaron Donald and the Rams, so I look for them to try to break out against the Falcons, especially targeting rooking cornerback A.J. Terrell (who does look promising, but he is a rookie).  Atlanta had 3 separate 100 yard receivers last week.  That might be too much for the Cowboys to have to cover.  I'll take the points.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Aaron Rodgers is on a mission this year and Detroit might not be over last week's loss to the Bears, having given up 3 touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Indianapolis Colts
Yes the Colts have a deep running back room, but the injury to Marlon Mack is going to make a difference.  There is no shame in losing to the Packers for the Vikings, but the Colts lost to a Jaguar team that is supposed to be horrid.

Miami Dolphins +6 v. Buffalo Bills

Miami is not very good, but I feel that Buffalo might catch South Beach Fever AND be overconfident.  This has all the makings of a Ryan Fitzpatrick backdoor cover.

New York Jets +7 v. San Francisco 49ers

I hate, HATE, making this pick.  But if there is one thing that I have learned over time is that you win way more than you lose by following the rules.  Of course, these aren't guarantees, they are about 66% sure, but that is a good percentage.  So, although the 49ers are WAY better than the Jets and could win this one by a ton, I am betting against the west coast team travelling east and playing the early game.  UGH!!!  - You know what, nope.  I took the road team on Thursday against the rules, so I am changing this pick to ...

San Francisco 49ers -7 at New York Jets.

Still Ugh!

Los Angeles Rams + 1 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I mean, while I am breaking rules, right?  Keep it going.  Seriously, last week the Eagles offensive line looked horrible.  And that is a big, big problem going against the Rams.  Aaron Donald absolutely dominated the Cowboys offensive line, which itself is a magnitude greater than that of the Rams.  I do not think that I am better than the rules, but what the hell.  It is week 2.

Pittsburgh Steelers -7 v. Denver Broncos

The Steelers defense should be able to tee-off on the Broncos offense that looked pretty meager against the Titans last week.  The Steelers rushing game behind James Conner and/or Benny Snell, Jr. should be able to control enough of this game to win by 2 touchdowns.  This is a battle of two teams that played Monday night, so both are on a short week.

Arizona Cardinals -7 v. Washington Football Team

Arizona is going to be really, really good this year.  Washington surprised the Eagles (and me) last week, but Arizona is going to have a much better offense than Philadelphia.  I am just happy that I do not have to type "Washington Racists".

Baltimore Ravens -7 at Houston Texans

I don't give points of a touchdown or more lightly (especially in two consecutive games).  And, it is no shame for the Texans to have lost to Kansas City, but what concerns me with Houston is that they absolutely just did not try to throw the ball deep at all in that game, essentially just allowing all of the defensive backs to pinch up closer to the receivers.  That and Baltimore's running game (including Jackson) should be enough to cover this spread.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 at Los Angeles Chargers

Until they prove me worng.

Seattle Seahawks -4 v. New England Patriots
The Seahawks are just better.  And at home.

Las Vegas Raiders +5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

No Michael Thoma, and yes the Raiders are going to be good this year.  Plus, the energy at the first home game in Vegas will be virtually nonexistent thanks to Covid, but the team is probably going to be psyched.

Big Bet

Seattle Seahawks -4 v. New England Patriots
The Seahawks are just better.  And at home.

I really wanted to select Baltimore for the second week in a row, but they are on the road

Last Week's Record: 7-8-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  7-8-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($30) 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($30)