In short, I have no idea what is going on this year, and neither do you! That is all. That is the preamble for this week. I got nothing! I will say that I am just going to stick to the betting rules and see what happens for a couple of weeks.
A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250. All losses incur a vig of 10%. On to the picks.
Cincinnati Bengals +5 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Yeah, this will be fun. Taking the team with the worst offense and the second to worst defense in Cincinnati. Literally 32nd in total offense and 31st in total defense. But then again, Pittsburgh is 30th in offense and 27th in defense. So, maybe this isn't awful taking a home underdog in an intra-divisional game and the home team on a short week - especially since it is the same team. Go Joe Flacco, I guess?
Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams (in London)
There are a whole lot of Londoners that probably believe Blake Bortles should be in the Hall of Fame, as the Jaguars always play great in their adopted home city. Matthew Stafford is playing great this year - top 3 in the MVP right now for me - but both teams score about the same amount of points (23.3 for Rams and 23.2 for Jacksonville), so I will take the points. Also note, underdogs have done really well overseas this year, not just against the spread.
New Orleans Saints +4 1/2 at Chicago Bears
Hey, they Bears have won 2 consecutive games 25-24, so they have the ability to keep the games close. And, both of those were on the road. But, they are on a short week and Spencer Rattler is showing some signs of life as a starting NFL quarterback. Bears win, but maybe this time 24-20?
New England Patriots -7 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
This game feels like it should be 6 1/2 points, especially since we have no earthly idea how the Titans are going to react to the Brian Callahan firing. This could actually fire up the players. But, the Patriots are in first place in the division, and they have to feel good about their chances to make the playoffs given the state of the AFC North.
Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins
This pick is all about defense: Miami's is 30th in Total Defense (20th in Pass Defense; 32nd in Rush Defense; and 29th in Scoring Defense), whereas Cleveland's is 2nd in Total Defense (7th in Pass Defense; 3rd in Rush Defense and 21st in Scoring Defense). Loser of this game loses its coach!
Carolina Panthers -1 1/2 at New York Jets
Carolina is 3-3 and on a 2-game winning streak. The Jets are winless. Carolina is doing this with defense (7th in Total Defense and 9th against the rush), which could help against the lone bright spot for the Jets - its 5th-ranked rushing offense.
Minnesota Vikings +1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
I like Minnesota a lot better with Carson Wentz than with J.J. McCarthy, especially behind the 6th ranked defense (5th in scoring). Philadelphia is a good team, but nowhere near as good as their reputation as the defending champion.
Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders
The Chiefs are rounding into form. A double-digit favorite against a division rival form, probably not, but what the hell.
Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. New York Giants
Once again, it is defense as Denver is 4th in Total Defense, 6th in Rushing Defense, 4th in Passing Defense, and 2nd in Scoring Defense. Nick Bonitto for MVP!
Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers
I'll admit it; I am late to the Indianapolis Colts train, and I still might not be there. And, I am a big fan of the Chargers' potential this year. BUT, the Colts are a ridiculously balanced offensive team (5th in passing yards and 6th in rushing yards), and score the most points in the league. And, although the defense isn't great, it is the 4th stingiest to score upon, even if they do give up yards. So, the I will take the fact that they are getting points here.
Dallas Cowboys +1 1/2 v. Washington Commanders
Listen, I DO NOT LIKE THIS BET. But, the Commanders are on a short week and the Cowboys are at home getting points to an intra-divisional opponent. I'll take them.
Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
After starting off 2-0 (against the Saints and Panthers mind you) the Cardinals are on a 4-game losing streak. I expect that to continue as this Cardinals team is not good. The Packers didn't look great last week, but they won handily, and I expect them to do the same here.
San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
The injury to Fred Warner hurts this squad - literally and figuratively - but I expect San Francisco to rally just like they have all year in replacing almost everybody to injury at some point already. Plus, Atlanta is on a short week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 1/2 at Detroit Lions
First off, this is way too many points the way the Buccaneers have been playing. This should be about a 2 1/2 point line. So, I will take the extra 3 points. And, Tampa's offense is humming behind Baker Mayfield (7th in passing and 6th in scoring. And, the 5th-rated rush defense could potentially hold Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in check. I expect this game to be fun to watch, and close. When it's close, I will gladly take points.
Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans
If it wasn't for Houston's defense, they would not have two wins at all. They are 1st in Scoring Defense, 3rd in Total Defense, 5th in Passing Defense and 7th in Rushing Defense. Seattle itself is 6th in Scoring Defense so this should be low scoring, and that usually means take the points. But Seattle just finds it easier to score than Houston does this year, and I think the Seahawks will win at home pretty handily.
Byes: Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans
If it wasn't for Houston's defense, they would not have two wins at all. They are 1st in Scoring Defense, 3rd in Total Defense, 5th in Passing Defense and 7th in Rushing Defense. Seattle itself is 6th in Scoring Defense so this should be low scoring, and that usually means take the points. But Seattle just finds it easier to score than Houston does this year, and I think the Seahawks will win at home pretty handily.
I am doing it. Seattle at home on Monday night. Crowd should be electric. I'll take it.
Last Week Record: 5-10
Last Week Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 40-53
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 1-5
Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($765)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,505)
No comments:
Post a Comment