A fantastic start to the playoffs, going 9-3 and winning both big bets!!! My only losses? Detroit and Rams failed to cover, Detroit didn't cover the 3, and Cleveland lost as a favorite. I will take that percentage from here on out!!! Divisional round time!!!
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Baltimore Ravens -9 v. Houston Texans
This Texans story is great for the league, and C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell (once he returns) are going to be a burden for the AFC for the forseeable future. Can you imagine if they got a stud running back? But, Baltimore is here now, with the number 1 scoring defense only allowing 16.5 points per game, and the 6th best pass defense to counteract C.J. Stroud's passing attack. A week off and rested, and Lamar Jackson is going to go crazy.
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens OVER 43 1/2
Just check out what this Ravens team has done playing other potential Super Bowl contenders this year! Domination after domination. They could score 30+ by themselves, and Houston's offense will push this OVER the top.
Green Bay Packers +9 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers
Don't get me wrong, San Francisco wins this game, but this Packers team is much, much different with Aaron Jones at running back. I said that last week when I picked Green Bay +7, and I will do it again with them getting 9 1/2 points. Their 28th ranked rushing defense is going to have really play the game of their lives with Christian McCaffrey, et. al. running the ball.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers OVER 50 1/2
Lots of points here to be scored between the rejuvenated Packers offense averaging 22.5 per game - including games in which Aaron Jones was absent - and a 49ers offense averaging 28.9.
Detroit Lions -6 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This game is likely going to come down to whether or not Tampa Bay's defense can stop the aerial attack of Detroit. Detroit has the wnd-best passing game in the NFL and Tampa's pass defense is 29th. An interesting stat, though, is that Tampa's last-rated rush offense averages only 88.8 yards per game, whereas Detroit's 2nd ranked rush defense gives up only 88.8 yards per game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions UNDER 49 1/2
As you will see, I will be picking the over in the next game, and I cannot select all Overs. This game seems like it is the most likely to end 24-17.
Kansas City Chiefs +3 at Buffalo Bills
If Kadarious Toney doesn't play, this game could be a route by the Chiefs. No, in all seriousness, Rashee Rice has emerged as the go-to receiver in Kansas City not named Travis Kelce, and even though Buffalo's offense is more balanced (8th in passing and 7th in rushing) thanks to Josh Allen's legs and the emergence of James Cook, the aforementioned Allen is likely to make one or two bad turnovers on which the experienced Chiefs will capitalize. And, with all three linebackers for Buffalo hobbling, at best, Pacheco could ultimately overpower the Bills middling rush defense. And I am getting points!!!
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills OVER 45 1/2
I smell shootout!!!
Big Bet I:
Kansas City Chiefs +3 at Buffalo Bills
If Kadarious Toney doesn't play, this game could be a route by the Chiefs. No, in all seriousness, Rashee Rice has emerged as the go-to receiver in Kansas City not named Travis Kelce, and even though Buffalo's offense is more balanced (8th in passing and 7th in rushing) thanks to Josh Allen's legs and the emergence of James Cook, the aforementioned Allen is likely to make one or two bad turnovers on which the experienced Chiefs will capitalize. And, with all three linebackers for Buffalo hobbling, at best, Pacheco could ultimately overpower the Bills middling rush defense. And I am getting points!!!
Yes, this is Patrick Mahomes' first road playoff game. DID YOU HEAR THAT? HIS FIRST HOME PLAYOFF GAME!!!! But, the experience of the team will take over and the Chiefs win.
Big Bet II:
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens OVER 43 1/2
Just check out what this Ravens team has done playing other potential Super Bowl contenders this year! Domination after domination. They could score 30+ by themselves, and Houston's offense will push this OVER the top.
The lowest Over/Under of the weekend, and I am pumping the over on this HARD! Lots of points in this game.
Record
Last Week's Record: 9-3
Last Week's Big Bet: 2-0
Playoffs' Record: 9-3
Playoffs' Big Bet: 2-0
Year-to-Date Record: 153-117-14
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $870
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $870
Playoffs' Winnings (Losses): $870
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,965
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