NFL Picks of the Week

Sadly, the Bears Super Bowl hopes went "doink, doink", but at least I had Philly plus the points.  Average week, but hopefully this gets easier, at least the way the weather is in half the games should help, but you never know.

The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under.  This allows 12 picks for the weekend.  I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100.  Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts +4 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
So, Kansas City is incredibly high scoring - this we all know.  But, Indianapolis was 5th in scoring this year as well and 10th in scoring defense.  Plus, it is snowing right now in Kansas City, as I just saw a picture from my friend Alison who is currently tailgating at the game (she is from Kansas City).  This game is going to require a stop, and the Colts defense will make enough to keep this close - especially since Kansas City's defense doesn't stop anybody (31st in the league at 405.5 yards per game).

Indianapolis Colts +180 (Bet $100 to win $180) at Kansas City Chiefs
If I think this is going to be close, I have a lot of faith in Adam Vinatieri in kicking field goals in inclement weather, even important ones.  Plus, I like the +180 odds better than the -220 to select the Chiefs.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54
Three unders hit last week, much to my dismay, but bad weather doesn't always mean low scoring.  Sometimes it means defensive backs slipping on coverage, or linebackers losing their footing when trying to wrap up a big back.  It can also mean fumbles in your own territory.  I look for the over to come in this game.

Dallas Cowboys +7 at the Los Angeles Rams
I don't think I am on the Dallas Cowboys are for real and legitimate Super Bowl contenders bandwagon, but I am on the Rams have not looked great for about a month now bandwagon, and the way the Cowboys defense has been playing, the Rams should not run away with this, even if they win.

Dallas Cowboys +270 at Los Angeles Rams (Bet $100 to win $270)
Honestly, I don't know if the Cowboys are actually going to win this game, all I know is that Amari Cooper has changed this offense dramatically - for the better - and Ezekial Elliott has been a monster with the safeties not able to play in the box to cover Cooper over the top.  Plus, the Rams are at -330, and I do not like that risk at all.

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams OVER 48 1/2
Even with Dallas's defense playing extraordinarily well of late, would it shock you if this ended up at least 28-24?  It wouldn't for me.  I'll take the over.

New England Patriots -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
I like the Chargers so much more than the Patriots this year, but the Chargers history in New England, and Phillip Rivers's history against Tom Brady, might just be too much to overcome in the bad weather in Foxboro.

New England Patriots -190 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Bill Belicheck with a bye week to prepare against a warm weather west coast team traveling east to play in the early time slot.  This should be -250.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots UNDER 48
I just don't see a shootout hear.  Maybe something like 24-17,

New Orleans Saints -8 v. Philadelphia Eagles
New Orleans was 13-3 this year for good reason, and this after starting the season with a loss to Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  New Orleans was the third highest scoring team in the league and second in total defense, meaning Nick Foles is going to have to do this by himself.  Besides Drew Brees, who will be playing against Philly's 30th ranked pass defense, the Saints have the most dangerous running back in the game in Alvin Kamara - because of his versatility.  Here is where the title defense ends.

New Orleans Saints -380 v. Philadelphia Eagles
I thought about hedging my bet here as the Eagles are getting +320, but New Orleans likely beats Philly last year if not for that ridiculous Stefon Diggs last second catch-and-run in the playoffs to knock the Saints out.  This playoff run is a long-time coming for the Saints.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints OVER 51 1/2
Did I mention Philadelphia's 30th ranked pass defense?

Big Bet
Dallas Cowboys +7 at Los Angeles Rams
I just feel the league, starting with the Bears loss, and continuing through the Philly loss the following week, might have found a way to slow down the Rams.

Last Week's Record:  7-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  131-126-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($105)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($985)