Solid start to the playoffs, finishing in the black. A couple of low-scoring games kept me from being waaaaay up, but that is the nature of betting. Let's see if I can capitalize on a good playoff start as we head into divisional weekend!
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Houston Texans +9 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is the overwhelming favorite, and I believe they will win this game. But, 9 points is a lot for this stage of the playoffs, especially given how close Kansas City's games have been this year. Plus, Houston's defense is tough (6th against the pass; 11th against the rush, 7th in total defense), and Will Anderson, Jr. is on a heater right now. And with Danielle Hunter's win percentage on the other side of the defensive line being the highest in the NFL, this game is going to be close.
Kansas City Chiefs -455 v. Houston Texans (Bet $455 to win $100)
I learned a long time ago not to bet against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. Even if this game is going to be close, I still feel strongly that Kansas City advances to the Conference Championship weekend; especially if Joe Mixon does not play for Houston (he is questionable). Plus, Andy Reid is not going to lose coming off a bye week.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 41 1/2
Have to take the over in the lowest O/U number of the weekend. Plus, the defenses average giving up over 41 total on the season, so I will take it.
Detroit Lions -8 1/2 v. Washington Commanders
The Commanders have had a helluva run this year, and finished as the 5th highest-scoring team in the NFL, but Detroit has been otherwordly on offense, averaging over 33, and their defense is 7th in points allowed. With an extra week to rest up, and with David Montgomery returning, Detroit should cruise.
Detroit Lions -455 v. Washington Commanders (Bet $455 to win $100)
I already mentioned I think that Detroit is going to cruise, so I have to pick them with the money line, right? Here is another reason why, Detroit is 5th against the run on defense, which could stifle Washington's 3rd-ranked rush offense, or at least limit it to less yard than they are used to gaining. And oh yeah, Washington is on a short week.
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions UNDER 55 1/2
The contrapositive of the earlier over/under bet. If you can't bet the under on the highest number, when can you?
Los Angeles Rams +6 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia's offense just hasn't looked right lately, even with Saquon doing his thing. Jalen Hurts only threw for 131 yards last week in his first game back from injury for a team that is only 29th in the NFL in passing. The Rams could focus on Saquon and try to limit his yards, as much as any time can. On the other side, even a great pass defense like the Eagles are going to have problems with Puka Nacua, especially in inclement weather.
Los Angeles Rams +240 at Philadelphia Eagles (Bet $100 to win $240)
Some upset has to occur, right? If so, I think it is this one, as the Rams have been a completely different team since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned in Week 7, going 9-3 (including last week's win) since. And yes this includes a 37-20 loss to the Eagles in Week 12, and I am willing to bet that Saquon doesn't have another 255 yard game along with A.J. Brown going for over 100 as well. What scares me? The Rams are playing on a short week, having played the Monday night game last week.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 42 1/2
I thought for sure that I was going to pick the under hear, with sub-freezing temperatures expected, but inclement weather often produces turnovers in plus-territory, meaning two or three extra scoring possessions.
Baltimore Ravens -1 at Buffalo Bills
If a road favorite is only favored by 1, are they truly a road favorite? Yes the loss of Zay Flowers may hurt, but as I typed last week, the Ravens are scary in two-tight end sets as that increases the big blockers for Derrick Henry, and Isaiah Likely joins Mark Andrews as excellent pass catchers. Josh Allen has been a force of nature this year, but Lamar is the MVP as far as I am concerned, and Baltimore's number 1 rushing defense will make Allen's arm try to beat them, in inclement weather.
Baltimore Ravens -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)
So, I really could have just bet Buffalo at Even here, which would hedge against my points spread bet, but because of the vig, that would have meant that I just lost $20 with no potential payout, so, the smart thing to do here is just bet on the Ravens for both, and hope for the best.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills OVER 51 1/2
No real reason for picking this over other than I just really want this to be a high scoring game, and I hope this helps manifest the outcome. But really, both teams average scoring over 30 a game (30.5 for Baltimore and 30.9 for Buffalo), so I don't feel that this is too much of a reach.
Big Bets:
Houston Texans +9 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is the overwhelming favorite, and I believe they will win this game. But, 9 points is a lot for this stage of the playoffs, especially given how close Kansas City's games have been this year. Plus, Houston's defense is tough (6th against the pass; 11th against the rush, 7th in total defense), and Will Anderson, Jr. is on a heater right now. And with Danielle Hunter's win percentage on the other side of the defensive line being the highest in the NFL, this game is going to be close.
Going to get my big bets early, taking the Texans to cover for all of the reasons mentioned in this post. Also, this game is going to be tough to watch as I need KC to win, but not by too much. Fun times.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 41 1/2
Have to take the over in the lowest O/U number of the weekend. Plus, the defenses average giving up over 41 total on the season, so I will take it.
Hoping that Kansas City coming off a bye week hits 30 on their own.
Record
Last Week's Record: 11-7
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-1
Year-to-Date Record: 145-135-10
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 10-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $213.50
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($601.50)
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