Picks of the Week

 

So, back in the red.  Not out of the hole yet, but a much better week.  And, I did my picks ahead of time for last week, so will do that again, making my picks for all of the games ahead of Thursday's Thanksgiving showdown!!!  Happy Thanksgiving to all, and may we all be thankful for another winning week!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears +9 1/2 at Detroit Lions -9 1/2

I do not think the Bears will beat Detroit - they won't - but they have played both divisional rivals close in the last two weeks, covering both spreads as they lost to the Packers by 1 and the Vikings by 3.  Maybe a 28-20 type of loss here tomorrow?  And yes, I know, short week and all, but there are three Thursday games,, plus one Friday, so have to try one road team.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. New York Giants

Tommy DeVito is not the answer.  What on earth does Drew Lock have to do to get some burn?  I expect Micah Parsons and company to feast this holiday.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Miami has won 3 in a row, after a close loss to Buffalo, so they are cruising with Tua back behind center.  Jordan Love has an 18:11 TD:INT ratio, and will likely throw one tomorrow.

Kansas City Chiefs -13 v. Las Vegas Raiders

So the Chiefs have been in a lot of close games, and there is no way they should cover this spread given their performances this year.  But, they are home on a short week, Isaiah Pacheco migh be back to give the running game a boost, and the Raiders lost Gardner Minshew for the season, meaning Desmond Ridder picks up the start, although even they cannot decide if it's Ridder or Aiden O'Connell.

Houston Texans -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston needs a win after losing to the Titans, despite forcing 19,000 turnovers, just like they lost to the Lions 3 weeks ago, after making 5 interceptions.  This defense is humming, and the Jaguars offense doesn't need that, although it is rumored that Trevor Lawrence is practicing, and Brian Thomas might be back.  Won't matter.

Atlanta Falcons + 1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers face the double-whammy of playing in the east coast in the 1:00 time slot AND having played Monday night, so this is a short week.  The loss of J.K. Dobbins - if he is indeed out with a knee strain, could also seriously hurt.  Give me the noon nightmare.

Tennessee Titans +5 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Tennessee snuck up with a win last week against Houston, and Will Levis has been playing somewhat well.  The Commanders are on a three-game losing streak.  I do not expect that streak to continue, as they should still pull this out, but Tennessee's 1st overall defense and 1st in passing defense could really challenge Washington, and keep this game close.

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona keeps looking on the verge to really take off, but they haven't.  Minnesota is 9th in scoring and 5th in scoring defense.  That is a really good combination, especially since their #1 ranked rush defense could tymie Arizona's 6th ranked rushing offense.

Indianapolis Colts -2 1/2 at New England Patriots

Since Anthony Richardson is so up-and-down, and the Colts beat the Jets two weeks ago, and lost to Detroit last week (no harm there), perhaps Richardson is up this week.  That is really my unscientific and unmathematical analysis.  But, evern though Indianapolis is 1-4 in their last 5, those losses have been to the Lions, Bills, Vikings, and Texans.  All playoff teams.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Cincinnati Bengals

I don't know how Pittsburgh is doing it either, honestly, but their 7th overall defense (4th in rush and scoring) is the best place to start.  The Bengals #1 passing offense will look to take advantage of the Steelers relative weekness against the pass (17th).  Me, I'll just take the points in almost any AFC North matchup.

Seattle Seahawks -2 at New York Jets

I hate making this pick since the game is in the 1:00 time slot in New Jersey, but I believe Geno Smith will find a way to outshine Aaron Rodgers, who may have already caused the team to turn against him.

Los Angeles Rams -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Of all the teams way back in the standings, I expect the Dolphins to make the most interesting playoff run, but that is only because the Rams, at 5-6, are only 1 game off the lead of the NFC West.  Being this close with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua out for a large swath of the beginning of the season, is dangerous for the reast of the NFC West.  They should handle New Orleans, who is coming off a bye week that may have stopped their momentum from a two-game win streak.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young has definitely improved since his return from the bench, but Baker Mayfield looks posed to capitalize on a healthy Mike Evans in his return from injury with one full game under his belt.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 at Baltimore Ravens

I am soooo looking forward to this game.  I am taking Philadelphia because among great teams I would prefer to take the points, but also because Baltimore played on Monday, making this a short week for them.  Both teams only real weakness (Baltimore 31st pass defense/Philadelphia 25th pass offense) will compete against each other, as will their strengths (Baltimore's number 1 total offense/Philadelphia's number 2 total defense; Philadelphia's number 1 rush offense/Baltimores #2 rush defense).  Like I wrote, I am looking forward to this game. 

Buffalo Bills -7 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco is just too banged up right now to really compete.  Buffalo is only one-game behind Kansas City in the fight for home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Denver Broncos -5 1/2 v. Clevleand Browns

Two teams I can never figure out, but in this scenario I know Denver is actually good, and Cleveland is not.  If I am going to be surprised, so be it.  Give me the good team.

Big Bet:

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. New York Giants

Tommy DeVito is not the answer.  What on earth does Drew Lock have to do to get some burn?  I expect Micah Parsons and company to feast this holiday.

This is not me picking Cooper Rush, but rather the fact that Dallas' defense has the chance to just thoroughly humiliate a quarterback that likely should not even be in the NFL.  I know it is a Thanksgiving Thursday game, and short week games are difficult to prognosticate, but I see nothing more obvious than this game this week.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  85-87-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 7-5

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $400

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($845)

Picks of the Week

 

So, back on the winning track (kind of).  Two games over .500 is a start, although losing the Big Bet made me go backward monetarily.  I will take the winning week as a springboard for a monster this week (I hope?!)

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Ok, so first game and I am breaking the gambling rules by selecting the visiting team on a short week.  I don't like it, but instead of coming back down to earth after a big win over Ravens last week, I think the Steelers are going to be energized and really put it to the Browns.  I am thinking about making this my Big Bet.  We will see.

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

I cannot select two road, intradivisional favorites in a row.  That would drive me crazy.  And besides, this Bears defense is no joke.  The only question is can they bounce back after a second, heart-breaking defeat last week with the Packers blocking Cairo Santos' last-second field goal.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 at New York Giants

This game, and this line is utterly preposterous.  Tommy DeVito?  What on earth to make of him?  Really, I don't care as I think Baker Mayfield will be happy to have Mike Evans back!  But this game is also why I picked the Bears.  Can't select three road favorites in the first 3 games.

Detroit Lions -7 at Indianapolis Colts

Until somebody proves otherwise, I am selecting the Lions.  I almost don't care the spread.  1st in scoring offense, 2nd in total offense, 3rd in rushing offense, 6th, in passing offense, 5th in scoring and rushing defense all make for a helluva squad.

Tennessee Titans -7 1/2 at Houston Texans

Only because Houston played Monday night.  The return of Nico Collins really does make for a more potent offense, though, so I was tempted to give the points, but Tennessee's defense is 1st against the pass and 2nd in total defense.

Miami Dolphins -7 1/2 v. New England Patriots

A whole lot of favorites here, but I think that Miami could put together a bit of a win streak here to make the playoff chase interesting down the line.

Washington Commanders -10 v. Dallas Cowboys

As I stated last week, going against the Cowboys until proven otherwise, almost no matter the spread.  And Dallas is on a short week this week (and next week, too!)

Kansas City Chiefs -10 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

OK, not sure if it is me that is not even trying and just picking favorites, or if these games really are out-of-control this week.  Picking KC not because of Mahomes, but because their 3rd rated defense is palying the worst rated offense.

Denver Broncos -6 at Las Vegas Raiders

I can't help myself.  The Broncos have been undersold on the betting lines all year, and the Raiders - except for Brock Bowers - might be tanking.  Oh year, and Maxx Crosby, that guy plays 100% no matter what.

Arizona Cardinals +1 at Seattle Seahawks

I could see this game go either way.  Even though it is only 1 point, I will take it.  Perhaps a 28-27 push.

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Jordan Love will make a crucial turnover.  San Francisco is getting George Kittle back.  He will be the difference.   That was my thoughts before seeing that Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa are both out, and maybe Trent Williams.  You know Bosa is hurt because he would have loved sacking Jordan Love.

Los Angeles Rams +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I actually think Philly is the better team and will win.  I do, however, really like this Rams team and would love to see them end up in the playoffs.  It will be hard to find a game with better receivers than A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, Cooper Kupp, and Puca Nakua.  Should be a fun one to watch!

Baltimore Ravens -3 at Los Angeles Chargers

Baltimore will be angry after their loss to the Steelers.  The Chargers defense is number 1 in scoring, but they are 11th total and rushing, and 12th passing.  Baltomre is first in total offense, second in scoring and rushing, and 3rd in passing.  They are last in the league against the pass, so there might be some plays for Justin Herbert to exploint, but I think the Ravens win bigger than most think.

Big Bet:

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Jordan Love will make a crucial turnover.  San Francisco is getting George Kittle back.  He will be the difference.   That was my thoughts before seeing that Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa are both out, and maybe Trent Williams.  You know Bosa is hurt because he would have loved sacking Jordan Love.

Too many injuries for San Francisco against a really good team.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  77-82-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-5

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1,245)

Picks of the Week

 

Last week was brutal.  Just horrible.  So bad that I have not yet even performed the calculations.  Will do that at the end of this post, but I will be significantly down this year, in record and money.  Well, gotta get back up with some winning weeks, and Thursday night was a great start!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 v. Washington Commanders

Home team, short week.  Simple, simple choice, especially as the home team is really starting to put their team together.

Chicago Bears +5 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

I think Green Bay will win this.  This pick is not being made with my heart.  Love has been very inconsistent this year, and I hate taking road intradivisional favorites.

Indianapolis Colts +4 1/2 at New York Jets

The Jets are 25th against the rush on defense.  I expect to see a lot of Jonathan Taylor AND Anthony Richardson - with his legs.  And given that performance last week against the Cardinals, this team may be giving up on Aaron Rodgers.

Baltimore Ravens -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

I know I said I hate road intradivisional favorites - and I do - but that doesn't mean that I won't pick them from time-to-time.  The Steelers have beaten the Ravens 10 straight times, however, Derrick Henry wasn't the running back in any of those games.

Minnesota Vikings -6 at Tennessee Titans

Tennessee's defense doesn't make sense; they are 1st in total defense and pass defense; but they are 29th in scoring defense.  This may be a close game until late, but I expect a Vikings win by about 10.

New Orleans Saints +1 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

I don't want to bet this game, I don't want to watch this game, and I don't want anything to do with this game.  Gimme the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars +12 at Detroit Lions

The Lions are the best team in football the way they are playing.  But, the Jaguars last three games (all losses) have been by 5 to the Vikings, 5 to the Eagles, and 3 to the Packers.  Close losses to really, really good teams.

Las Vegas Raiders +7 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Two competing betting rules:  Bet against the Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 slot, and don't bet a team playing on a short week. Since both of these are happening; I am taking the points, especially since it is over a touchdown.

New England Patriots +4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

In almost every circumstance I would be betting the Rams here, as they have been playing much better - despite last week's loss to the Miami Dolphins - since Cooper Kupp and Puca Nakua have returned.  They have won 3 of their last 4, incouding wins over the Seahawks and Vikings.  But, they are on a short week having played Monday night, and they are playing near Boston in the 1:00 time slot.

Atlanta Falcons +2 at Denver Broncos

Strength on strength as Atlanta's offense (5th in passing, 5th overall) against Denver's defense (4th in scoring, 6th overall, 7th rushing), and the other side of the ball for both team's is mediocre.  The Falcons need this game after falling to the Saints last week.

San Francisco 49ers -6 v. Seattle Seahawks

This could be a really exciting game as the number 7 total offense (1st passing) in Seattle will be playing the number 2 offense (2nd passing, 4th rushing, 7th scoring) in San Fracnico.  The diference, the 49ers have the 5th best total defense and the Seahawks have the 26th.  And, Christian McCaffrey has a game under his belt.

Buffalo Bills -2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

This is the game to watch to this week.  And my selection is more feel than research.  Buffalo just seems to be playing better, despite Kansas City being undefeated.

Los Angeles Chargers -1 v. Cincinnati Bengals

The Chargers are the most difficult team upon which to score, giving up only 13.1 piints per game, and they have a very balanced defense (9th against the run, and the pass, for 8th overall).  Ladd McConkey seems to be emerging as a pass-catching weapon, Justin Herbert hasn't really broken out yet this year.  Cincinnati scores (5th in the league) mainly because of their passing (4th in the NFL), but their defense is below average.  The Chargers at home in a prime time game.

Houston Texans -7 at Dallas Cowboys

It will take a lot, AND I MEAN A LOT, to pick the Cowboys going forward.  But, for starters, Dallas is 31st in the league in rushing AND rush defense.  Not a good combo.

Big Bet:

Jacksonville Jaguars +14 at Detroit Lions

The Lions are the best team in football the way they are playing.  But, the Jaguars last three games (all losses) have been by 5 to the Vikings, 5 to the Eagles, and 3 to the Packers.  Close losses to really, really good teams.

Fourteen points is a lot of points in the NFL, especially when a team receiving the points has been playing close games.  Yes, I realize that Mac Jones is the quarterback for Jacksonville, but I have been seeing this year that maybe, just maybe, Trevor Lawrence isn't that good?

Record

Last Week's Record:  4-10

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  69-76-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-4

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($865)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1,220)

Picks of the Week

It is the heart of the season where teams make a playoff push, or fall, and bettors make money, or lose.  Time to button-up and get some wins.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -5 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

The first game between these two teams was an overtime barnburner, but this time around is a short week for the visting Bengals.  Still managed to take it down to the wire.

New York Giants -5 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers in Munich, Germany

Carolina is embarrasing - so let's send them overseas.

Chicago Bears -6 v. New England Patriots

Perhaps this bet is just hopeful.

New England Patriots +3 at Tennessee Titans

This might just be the defense that Caleb Williams needs to right the ship and prove that he is improving in his rookie season.  This is not the defense Drake Maye wants to see right now, even though he has shown promise in his few starts.

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

West coast team traveling east versus team on a short week. So, there is no good bet here.  I am taking the team with returning playmakers (McCaffrey and Jennings), versus the team without them (Godwin and Evans).

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

No Chris Olave hurts the team that is a mediocre 18th in the NFL in passing.  Meanwhile Atlanta has won 5 of its last 6, and is in control of the NFC South.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

I would feel much better if this was a 6 1/2 point spread, as this is a divisional game, but DeAndre Hopkins makes this Chiefs offense way scarier, as defenses had focused on Travis Kelce, and now they can't.  Plus, the Chiefs deense has been outstanding (2nd overall, 3rd against the rush, and 4th in scoring).

Buffalo Bills -4 at Indianapolis Colts

For all of the blame that Indy's offense, particularly Anthony Richardson, has taken this year, the Colts' defense is 30th in total defense, 26th in passing, 31st in rushing, and 24th in 3rd down percentage.  Just what Josh Allen needs.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 at Washington Commanders

The marquee game of the week.  Really just playing a hunch here, given Brian Robinson is out for Washington.

Minnesota Vikings -7 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Minnesota as a road favorite this high is tough, but Jacksonville's defense is 31st in the NFL in total defense and passing defense (and 30th in scoring defense), not good when going against Justin Jefferson.

Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Another big spread, but at least this time at home.  Chargers are the stingiest team to score against, and Tennessee rarely scores (27th in NFL).

Philadelphia Eagles -7 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Philadelphia has won 4 in a row, and the Cowboys are without Dak Prescott, and CeeDee Lamb is hobbled.

New York Jets -1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Just a hunch honestly, based on the Jets defense (2nd in passing, 6th in total defense, 10th in scoring defense).

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at Houston Texans

Nico Collins would be a great return for this Texans, but he still might not be up-to-speed, and this Lions team is humming with 6 wins in a row.

Los Angeles Rams -1 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

The Rams are on a 3-game winning streak, and get to host the struggling Dolphins at home.  Can the Rams defense (24th against the run) slow down Devon Achane and Raheem Mostert?  Enough, yes, given that the returns of Cooper Kupp and Puca Nakua have made this offense way more potent than its ranking (18th).

Big Bet:

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

No Chris Olave hurts the team that is a mediocre 18th in the NFL in passing.  Meanwhile Atlanta has won 5 of its last 6, and is in control of the NFC South.

When you take a lot of favorites, you have to select a big bet giving points, and 3 1/2 is not that much given how easily I think the Falcons will win.  It has taken a while for the defense - and all its new members - to gel, but Justin Simmons and the other new Falcons are certainly coming around.

Record

Last Week's Record:  6-8-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  65-66-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-3

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($355)

Picks of the Week

 

Two pummeling weeks in a row, although this time mostly because of the Big Bet.  But seriously, who saw Cleveland covering the spread against Baltimore, much less winning outright.  And that Jayden Daniels Hail Mary, now forever remembered as the Tyrique Stevenson play!  Football, amirite?

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans +2 1/2 at New York Jets

I saw this one coming a mile away.  I even commented to several people that this line looked way too easy.  But I fell for it anyway.  Home team on a short week.  Home team on a short week.  Home team on a short week.  I feel like I need to Bart Simpson a chalkboard with this saying.

Baltimore Ravens -8 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Denver's defense is really good; 7th against the run, 4th against the pass, 3rd in scoring defcnse and 3rd in total defense.  But, this is a Baltimore revenge game after last week's embarrasing loss.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Yes there is only 1 game difference between these two teams, and yes Cincinnati's strength (7th in passing offense) could be counteracted by Las Vegas' strenght (7th in passing defense, but Cincy scores a lot more than the Raiders, and the Raiders are a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playin gin the 1:00 slot.  So, I am just going to adhere to the football gambling rules and take the home team (although not sure where the falling back hour enters the equation).

New England Patriots +3 at Tennessee Titans

The Titans defense is good to great, but their offense is pathetic.  The Patriots are just bad, but they get Drake Maye back, and that has to count for something.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Yes I am taking a road intradivisional favorite, but I think Carolina has proven time-and-time again just how bad they really are.  And, Derek Carr returns for New Orleans.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

Dallas' run game is truly horrific (last in the league) and now Ezekial Elliott is left home for disciplinary reasons.  Is Dallas falling apart, or will they rally? We don't really know, but Atlanta's pass offense is 6th in the NFL and Dallas's pass defense is 20th, so I will go with any rally falls short.

Buffalo Bills -6 v. Miami Dolphins

Yes Tuanigamatualepola Tagavialoa has a game under his belt after returning from the league's concussion protocol, but he was healthy and at home in Week 2's 31-10 loss to these same Bills, who have the 5th-highest scoring team in the NFL, and the 6th-best scoring defense.

Cleveland Browns -1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Cleveland beat Baltimore last week behind Jameis Winston at quarterback.  Could it have been a fluke?  Of course it could, bet let's not forget that we saw them make the playoffs last year with Joe Flacco.  Plus, this is a 1:00 game in the Eastern time zone in which the visiting team traveled from the Pacific Time Zone.

Washington Commanders -4 at New York Giants

If ever there was a game for a let down, this one could be it for the Commanders after last week's disastrous let down in the fourth quarter only to be victorious on the hail mary.  And, I would think that betting-wise, especially given that Washington is an intra-divisional road favorite; however, the Giants played Monday night, and thus are on a short week.  Washington continues its resurgence.

Chicago Bears +2 at Arizona Cardinals

The Bears have demoted Tyrique Stevenson for this game, but he will play.  Not sure how this team adjusts after that crazy ending last week in Washington, but ARizona is 26th against the pass, and D.J. Moore is due for a crazy game.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Philly has won 3 in a row after losing to Cleveland in week 6, and have had two blowouts on the road in the past two weeks.  They are getting hot, and Jacksonville - despite playing tough against Green Bay - is not.  The Jaguars are 31st in defensing the pass, and Philadelphia has all of its weapons - including A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith.

Seattle Seahawks +2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Two teams that I absolutely cannot figure out for the life of me.  Both could end up 6-11 or 7-10; or in the second round of the playoffs.  Crazy.  Just taking the points.

Detroit Lions -2 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

So, a third intradivisional favorite makes me nervous; but Detroit really looks like the best team in football right now.  The offense is humming (4th overall and 1st in scoring); the defense - although not great overall (20th) - has its strengths (1st in 3rd down percentage; 5th in rush defense and 8th in scoring defense).  Green Bay also has a prodigious offense (5th in rushing, 6th total offense and scoring offense, and 8th in passing offense), but their defense is way more pedestrian.  Not bad, just pedestrian.  Plus, with Jordan Love playing but perhaps at less than 100%, the Lions take a big jump toward home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Indianapolis Colts +5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

A move to Joe Flacco could help jump start this team, given the Colts a passing threat to help make room for Jonathan Taylor.  And the fact that this change came at the demand of several of the team's leaders themselves, means the rest of the team could be rallying behind Flacco (like Cleveland last year?).  Not sure they win, but they should keep this close.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a lot of points to give up.  A LOT.  And, if I told you the team with the 2nd best passing offense, the 4th  best scoring offense, the 5th best total offense and the 10th best rushing offense was playing on Monday - you would agree that the Chiefs are a great offense.  Except those rankings are the Buccaneers. But, and it's a big BUT - like Kim Kardashian level - that was when Tampa Bay had receivers.  Without receivers, this KC defense (2nd against the rush, 2nd in total defense, and 5th in scoring defense) will be too suffocating at home.

Big Bet:

Cleveland Browns -1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Cleveland beat Baltimore last week behind Jameis Winston at quarterback.  Could it have been a fluke?  Of course it could, bet let's not forget that we saw them make the playoffs last year with Joe Flacco.  Plus, this is a 1:00 game in the Eastern time zone in which the visiting team traveled from the Pacific Time Zone.

I know this sounds crazy, but I like to pick home teams either getting points, or giving just a few, so this game fits the bill.  And, we cannot view this team as the Cleveland Browns from most of the rest of the year as DeShaun Watson is not playing.  He was the biggest hinderance on this offense.  Look for two of Cedric Tillman, Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy to approach (or hit) 100 yards receiving with Winston flinging and the Chargers' defense focused on a healthier Nick Chubb.

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  59-58-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $90

Picks of the Week

 

After two great weeks in a row, last week did me in.  A big negative salvaged only by virtue of winning the Big Bet, which continues to be my saving grace in this NFL season.  If I could figure out Arizona, well then that would be something!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams +3 v. Minnesota Vikings

Cooper Kupp back; Puka Nacua returns; and the home team on a short week.  Easy call, even with Minnesota playing really well.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Yes, this Browns team is a dumpster fire.  Jameis Winston could give them some fire offensively and Nick Chubb has a game under his belt.  And to top it off, Baltimore played Monday night.

Houston Texans -4 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor returns so that should ease some pressure off of Anthony Richardson, but Houston's 4th-ranked pass defense will not.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Good win in London on Sunday, but now the Jaguars face a 5-2 Packers team that didn't have to travel home from the United Kingdom.

Tennessee Titans +11 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Yes the Lions are really good, especially on offense where they are 4th in rushing, 3rd in scoring and passing, and 2nd in total offense.  But Tennessee is equally amazing on defense as they rank 1st overally, 3rd in passing defense and 7th in rushing defense.  Mason Rudolph also doesn't make the stupid turnovers that Will Levis made.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Two gambling rules at odds in this one (see what I did there?).  Tampa is on a short week, but Atlanta is the road favorite in an intra-divisional game.  Tamps looked pretty good at times against Baltimore, and has looked great at times this year.  Wide Receiver injuries hurt, but I will assume somebody will be able to catch the ball (Cade Otton, Richard White).

New England Patrionts +7 v. New York Jets

This fame sucks, and it sucks to try to bet.  I am just taking points here, and nothing else.

Miami Dolphins +4 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona played Monday night, and they have to travel east?  Plus, Tuanigaminuolepola Tagavailoa returns to spark the Dolphins offense?  And I get points?  Yes please.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Mpore of a gut feeling than anything, but Cincinnati just seem to be playing better than Philadelphia, even with their 3-4 record, whereas the Eagles haven't really looked great.

Chicago Bears +1 at Washington Commanders

I would really liked to have seen this game with Jayden Daniels starting.  Mariota is a solid veteran, but not as dynamic as Daniels, and Washingotn will need that dynamism against this Bears defense.  Damn, they just announced that Daniels is playing, and I am too lazy to change the pick.  I'll just take whatever additional 1/2 or full point is added before kickoff.

Los Angeles Chargers -7 v. New Orleans Saints

Too many injuries for New Orleans, even with the extra days rest from playing last Thursday.

Buffalo Bills -3 at Seattle Seahawks

The NFL's 5th highest scoring offense addes Amari Cooper with a full-practice week, so I will take Buffalo in what I expect to be a shootout.

Kansas City Chiefs -8 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Cheifs have been very underwhelming for an undefeated team, but that won't stop them from becoming very scary once DeAndre Hopkins works his way into this offense.  I don't expect much from him today, but the Raiders defense might!

Carolina Panthers +11 1/2 at Denver Broncos

I just really hate giving up double digits in an NFL game.

Dallas Cowboys +4 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Yes, Jordan Mason is returning, but Ricky Pearsall is the healthiest receiver on San Francisco, AND HE GOT SHOT!

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 1/2 v. New York Giants

Russell Wilson brings some stability to the Steelers (if not more talent than Fields), and the Giants are not very good.

Big Bet:

Houston Texans -4 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor returns so that should ease some pressure off of Anthony Richardson, but Houston's 4th-ranked pass defense will not.

I don't like giving up points for a Big Bet, but Houston at least is at home.  I didn't like any of these games for a guarantee.

Record

Last Week's Record:  6-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  52-49-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-1 

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($240)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $545

Picks of the Week

A second consecutive 9-4-1 week.  These are the types of records I like to see!!!  Off to a bad start this week, but hopefully I can keep up the level I have been selecting recently!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Home team, short week didn't work.  Really, really didn't work.

New England Patriots +6 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (London - Wembley Stadium)

Drake Maye showed something last week, and despite New England not having a lot of offensive talent, Maye might be able to score enough against the leagues 31st scoring defense to keep this close.

Indianapolis Colts -3 v. Miami Dolphins

I really have no idea what to do with this one.  Yes, Anthony Richardson is returning, but do we really know if he is good or not?  No, we don't.  But, Tua Tagavailova is still out for Miami, so that offense hasn't shown anything since he went down with injury.  So maybe Richardson is inconsistent, but makes a few plays to win and cover.

Buffalo Bills -9 v. Tennessee Titans

The Bills have actually been struggling this year offensively; 25th in the NFL.  But, optimism is key.  And if Josh Allen is hyped due to the acquisition of Amari Cooper, that coould do a lot for this team, even if it will take Cooper a couple of weeks to get up to speed.  Interested in seeing how Tennessee's top ranked defense fares against the new look Buffalo with James Cook back and Amari Cooper suited up.

Detroit Lions + 1 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

In a matchup that should be a close barnburner, I'll take points, even if it is only 1 1/2.  The over (50 1/2) should be a good play here, also.

Cincinnati Bengals -5 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

I hate road intradivisional favorites, but Cleveland is awful and they have already traded Amari Cooper.  Could Wyatt Teller, Joel Bitonio, and/or Myles Garrett be far behind?

Houston Texans + 2 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Green Bay's 25th ranked passing defense is their downfall here, as Houston looks to take advantage of the Packers' secondary.

Atlanta Falcons -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Eastern time zone home team against a Pacific time zone team in the 1:00 slot; covers over 2/3rds of the time.

New York Giants +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I do not want to take 2 intradivisional road favorites, and Cincinnati seems more likely to cover than the Eagles.  Is it possible that we have been overrating the Eagles (and Jalen Hurts?) for the past couple years?  Also feel like the Giants are not as bad as everyone thinks, either, so I'll take the points.

Carolina Panthers +9 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Please don't get me wrong, Washington wins this game.  It is just that 9 1/2 points seem like a lot to me.

Los Angeles Rams -7 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Too many Maxx Crosby trade rumors circulating for this Raiders team to be focused on the rest of this season.

San Francisco 49ers -2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The return of Jordan Mason to the lineup should put a jolt in the San Francisco offense, at least enough to defeat a Kansas City Chiefs team lacking in firepower.  Could they be looking for a trade deadline upgrade, especially at receiver?

New York Jets -2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

At the very least Aaron Rodgers knows Davante Adams, even if Adams cannot get fully up-to-speed on the entire playbook.  The Steelers will be starting Russell Wilson, hoping they get the Wilson from 4+ years ago and not thei this year/last year version.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baltimore is the better team here, but could Baker Mayfield exploit the one kink in the Ravens' armor - pass defense (31st in the NFL)?  They may, but Tampa's entire defense is its Achilles' heel (28th overall, 29th passing, 18th scoring).

Los Angeles Chargers -1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Don't really know what it is about these Chargers, but they look like they could make a playoff run.  Number 1 scoring defense in the NFL - and 6th in total defense helps.

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -5 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

I hate road intradivisional favorites, but Cleveland is awful and they have already traded Amari Cooper.  Could Wyatt Teller, Joel Bitonio, and/or Myles Garrett be far behind?

I am going against everything I like to do for my big bet.  Pick home teams, that are underdogs, or only slight favorites being among them.  But, this Cleveland team is a mess.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-4-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  46-40-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 5-1 

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $610

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $785