Picks of the Week

Not only is the NFL back, but so am I.  A great 11-4-1 week, which means this week will probably tank.  We did start off well by winning Thursday.  Let's see if we can keep this going.Cin

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals +1 v. Baltimore Ravens
The classic overreact game, where the Ravens are coming off their shellacking of the Buffalo Bills, to the point where they are road favorites in an intra-divisional game.  This was an easy pick for that reason.

Carolina Panthers +6 at Atlanta Falcons
So the Falcons played really tough against the Eagles on the road last week, but they lost a lot of really good players to injuries, including Safety Keanu Neal, Linebacker Deion Jones and Running Back Devante Freemen.  Julio Jones is still phenomenal, but he doesn't play defense.

Buffalo Bills + 7 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Yes the Bills are awful, but no they are not starting Nathan Peterman.  That, and given the fact that the Chargers are a west coast team travelling east to play in the early game, which historically - and significantly - favors the east coast team against-the-spread.   Boy is it hard to make this pick, though.  Really, really hard.

Green Bay Packers + 2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Another pick that it is really hard to make given we don't know Aaron Rodgers's full status.  We do know that he will play, so I will take the points at home.

New Orleans Saints -9 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
I almost selected the Browns here getting almost 10 points.  But, there is no way this Browns offense is as potent as the Buccaneers offense was last week  (Go FitzMagic!), and to top things off, this Josh Gordon situation has become as problematic as it ever could be for Cleveland and its offense.  When he is on the field he is dynamic.  When he is not, he is a dynamic pain-in-the-ass for the Browns.  New Orleans in a cakewalk.

Miami Dolphins +3 at New York Jets
Another overreacttive line based upon a surprise showing from last week.  Sam Darnold looked pretty good at times, but this should be a lot closer line that 3.  Miami 24-23, once again causing all of the Ryan Tannehill haters to have to be quiet for at least another week.

Kansas City Chiefs +4 at Pittsburgh Steelers
James Conner did have a great opening week replacing Le'Veon Bell, but this Steelers team just did not look right last week.  And, if Josh Gordon is going to torch your secondary, guess what Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill are going to do.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
I promise that this is not an overreaction to Tampa Bay's defeat of New Orleans last week, but more of a reaction to the play, or lack thereof, of Nick Foles.  The Eagles may very well win this game, but it will be close, so I will take the points.

Houston Texans -4 at Tennessee Titans
I hate road favorites, especially in intradivisional games, and doubly especially in games after the favorite looked pedestrian at best.  But then I hear that Blaine Gabbert is going to be making an appearance for the home underdog, and I feel much better.

Washington Racists +6 v. Indianapolis Colts
At some point in time I need to stop underestimate the Racists, especially when playing against mediocre and worst teams, which the Colts certainly are.

Arizona Cardinals +13 at Los Angeles Rams
For those that follow this blog, you know that I thing the Rams were the second best team in the league last week, and the Cardinals were the second worst.  You can see that here.  But, 13 points is a huge number.  Just huge.  I cannot pull the trigger on that big of a spread this early in the season.

San Francisco 49ers -6 v. Detroit Lions
This is another hard pick for me, as there is no way that the Lions play that bad this week.  Also, there is no way Garappolo plays that bad either.  I would feel more comfortable if this was 3 1/2-4 points.  I will still give them.

Denver -6 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
I have a strong feeling that this Raiders season is going to be a dumpster-fire.  That is all.

New England Patriots +1 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have a great defense.  GREAT.  But, they also have Blake Bortles against Tom Brady.  Yes the AFC Championship game was phenomenal and Jacksonville was on Myles Jack fumble recovery for touchdown away from being in the Super Bowl, but they were also one coaching staff afraid to put the ball in the hands of their starting quarterback away as well.  And ... they have the same quarterback.  Plus no -or very limited - Leonard Fournette.

New York Giants +3 at Dallas Cowboys
I don't think either of these teams is very good, thus, I will take the points.

Chicago Bears -3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Both teams looked lively in losses last week.  I am picking the Bears only because of more Khalil Mack!

Big Bet
Carolina Panthers +6 at Atlanta Falcons
So the Falcons played really tough against the Eagles on the road last week, but they lost a lot of really good players to injuries, including Safety Keanu Neal, Linebacker Deion Jones and Running Back Devante Freemen.  Julio Jones is still phenomenal, but he doesn't play defense.  Too many injuries to the Falcons.

Last Week's Record: 11-4-1

Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 11-4-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $810
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $810

SUPER BOWL ROUNDTABLE

It is Super Bowl Sunday, and we are glad that you were able to stop by WeMakeItRain where you will hear/read analysis about the game that you cannot get anywhere else.  Joining me today is Sinickal and Hopps, so the whole crew is here.  Joining us are our special guests, Audio and none other than our Patron Saint - Adam "Pacman" Jones himself.

Pepster:  OK guys, let's get the boring stuff out of the way.  Who wins this game?

Sinickal, Hopps and Audio:  HaHaHaHa.  This is funny.

Pepster:  Good point.

Hopps:  Even "Goodfellas" money couldn't stop this line from moving and taking sucker bets of Denver money.

PacMan Jones:  I bet $81,000 in small bills on the Panthers.  In fact, I just walked into the casino and threw the money into the air.  I am assuming the proper bet was made.

Hopps:  This game is over by the end of the first quarter.

Pepster:  Ok, now that that is out of the way, before we get into our normal discussion, we have to address the quarterback situation.  Since this might be Peyton Manning's last game, does a second Super Bowl victory - along with all of his other stats - vault him to the title of best quarterback of all time?

Sinickal, Hopps, Audio, PacMan:  HaHaHaHaHa!  You are killing us.

Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Dan Marino, John Elway:  That Pepster guy is funny!

Sinickal:  Peyton was a great quarterback - not the greatest of all time - but he WAS great.  Now, he is not even close to being remotely average.  In fact, I think that a wide receiver for the Broncos will be decapitated due to a Manning wounded duck.

Audio:  I will put $100 down for a decapitation.

Hopps: *Nods in agreement*  And after that decapitation, I predict that Brock Osweiler will take snaps in this game.  Let's talk about the real story in this game.  Cam Newton.  He is the MVP this year, and at 6'5", 245, he is only one inch shorter and 12 pounds lighter than Rob Gronkowski.  Newton is a beast.  I think he will dab at least 4 times.

Sinickal:  Cam will dab so much, that even Phil Simms will try to dab.  But, we know the NFL, and they will try to put as much emphasis into the Peyton Manning story as much as possible.  In fact, I predict that someone will report that Tom Brady bought Al-Jazeera and ordered the HGH report.

Hopps:  Why can't you all just leave my Patriots alone?

Pepster/Sinickal:  Because they cheat!

Pepster:  Let's get to the real story of this game, and to a statistic pointed out to me by my friend Wass (as reported by Tim Reynolds).  Carolina tight end Greg Olsen has the opportunity to become the first member of the Seventh Floor Crew to win the Super Bowl, with Brandon Merriweather and Tavares Gooden losing in their lone Super Bowl appearances.

Sinickal:  I love that this game has initiated a huge resurgence for the greatest 1-hit wonder group of all time.

Pepster:  Even bigger than Toni Basil, who until 2005 had the greatest 1 hit wonder with "Mickey".  The 7th Floor Crew is also easily the most misogynistic song to ever come out of Miami.

Sinickal:  The Miami sound came with its own G-string and a minimum dimension for ass size.

Pepster:  The most misogynistic song to come out of Miami.  Think about THAT for a minute.

Hopps:  *Tears*

PacMan Jones:  The greatest songs of all time came out of Miami.  Every Two Live Crew song is a must to be played at the strip club.

Pepster:  Because of the resurgence of interest in the 7th Floor Crew, I went back and read some old stories about the group.  One blog listed every lyric from the song that was appropriate to print.  The author wrote, "Is this thing on?  Good."

Hopps:  *More tears*

Pepster:  I predict that I will make at least 17 7th Floor Crew references.  Being a University of Miami fan, Let's give some football credit to G-Reg.  Who honestly thought that the Panthers would have any type of passing game this year once Kelvin Benjamin went out?  Everyone not related to Greg Olsen please put your hands down.  You too Ted Ginn, Jr.

Hopps:  Well, I think Ted Ginn, Jr. will make a sideline ....

Sinickal:  A sideline what?

Hopps:  I don't know.  I was going to say a sideline catch, but then I lost my train of thought thinking about how sick the Miami Dolphins fans were when they drafted Ted Ginn, Jr. instead of Brady Quinn or Amobi Okoye.  That's funny.

Pepster:  That was funny.  What is even funnier is that Ginn has ultimately turned out better than both Quinn and Okoye.  Patrick Willis, Marshawn Lynch and Darrelle Revis were both drafted after Ted Ginn, Jr.

Pepster:  So, anybody have any sure-fire predictions that they want to make that might be a little unusual?

Hopps:  The halftime show will suck.

Pepster:  We already know that.  It's Coldplay.  That prediction isn't even on the board in Vegas it is so obvious.

Audio:  I have one, I predict at least 2 defensive touchdowns.

PacMan:  I would have one of those if I was able to play against Peyton.  He is horrible.  I wish that we had Andy Dalton for our playoff run.  Damn Steelers.

Audio:  Black and yellow; black and yellow.

Sinickal:  I have two; one football related and one non-football related.  First, Von Miller will try to prevent Cam from giving away a football to a kid.

Pepster:  Do they even allow kids at the Super Bowl anymore?

Sinickal:  And more importantly, the hottest woman shown on television will be a Carolina fan!

Hopps:  Now that is a good pick.

PacMan:  I am sure that is true.  I have played in both cities before.

Pepster:  Now that bet, I like.  I am going to say that Stephen Curry is shown on television at least twice, and he will be wearing something Carolina Panthers-related.

Hopps:  Leave it to the NBA to try to outshine the NFL at the Super Bowl.

Sinickal:  All I know is that I am going to a golf show in the morning, so I am certain that I will buy a new driver.

Pepster:  I am also certain that we will hear several references to Michael Lewis's The Blind Side since Michael Oher starts for the Panthers.

Sinickal:  How can we have this entire conversation without addressing the star defenders in this game, Thomas Davis, Luke Kuechly, Kawann Short, Star Lotuleilei, Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, etc., etc., etc.

Pepster:  Because that topic would be actual analysis.  Onward to my picks.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

WINNERS

Carolina Panthers

AGAINST THE SPREAD

Carolina Panthers -5 v. Denver Broncos
Denver has no real offense.  Carolina has offense and defense.  Peyton Manning may feel like he "needs" this.  Cam Newton "wants" this.  Want wins.

OVER/UNDER

Carolina Panthers v. Denver Broncos 43 1/2 - OVER

Carolina will get to 30 plus on their own.  I just need 2 touchdowns from Denver.

RANDOM BET

At least 5 total sacks and 1 interception.

No big bet this week because there are only four bets made total.

Last Week's Winners:  1-1
Playoff Winners to Date:  6-4
Last Week's Record:  3-3
Playoff Record:  11-14

Year-to-Date Record: 139-130-5
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 13-7
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: ($195)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $395

Picks of the Week

Very mediocre week last week.  This week seems pretty easy for me.  As only two games are being played, I will pick the winner, against the spread, and the over/under for each.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

WINNERS

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
To quote my boy Hopps, "I've seen this show before".  This seems a bit obvious to me for some reason.

Carolina Panthers v. Arizona Cardinals
Carolina, despite what happened in the second half, thoroughly dominated the Seattle Seahawks, who might be the third or fourth best team in the entire league.  Carolina wins this game, despite the fact that everyone thinks that Carson Palmer, along with Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown can take advantage of Carolina's secondary.  Who, is going to take care of Cam Newton?  Really tough year to have gotten rid of Darnell Dockett, Arizona.

AGAINST THE SPREAD

New England Patriots -3 at Denver Broncos
I know what you are saying, "Pepster, why would you take a road favorite in the playoffs?"  Here is why.  New England took Denver into overtime earlier this year without Julian Edelman, the single most important player for New England not named "Tom Brady".  Why is Edelman that important?  Because he gets himself open immediately off the line of scrimmage, which allows Tom Brady to throw those short passes which keeps the defensive pass rush from hitting him.  If the team bunches up against Edelman, then Gronkowski then becomes open.  And to quote Dan Lebatard, "Gronkowski is not human.  Bill Belichick just found a polar bear and taught him how to catch things".  Plus, Peyton Manning did not play in the earlier game, and Peyton is more of a detriment to the Broncos given that he is basically a shell of his former self.  His play actually gives an extra 6 points to New England, in my opinion.

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have had a great year, and are perhaps the second best team in the NFL, unfortunately, they are playing the best team in the NFL.  Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis are the best linebacker combination in the NFL.  I WILL NOT ARGUE THIS POINT!!!  They have a phenomenal running game, led by Cam Newton, for whom Arizona's defense just cannot account.  If Arizona is going to have a chance, they are going to have to win an absolute shootout, which brings Greg Olsen - the second best tight end in the league this year behind Gronk and highly touted member of the Seventh Floor Crew, into importance - which is not what Arizona wants to do.  If Arizona can make it a shootout, Carson Palmer will have to keep his interceptions down to 0 or 1, which can be tough.

OVER/UNDER

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos 45 - OVER
The Patriots with Gronkowski and Edelman is good for at least 30 themselves, despite the talent on Denver's defense.  The quick passing game will not allow the Broncos' defense to hit Brady with any regularity, and thus, he will pick them apart little by little.  Denver - in order to win - is going to have to rely heavily on its inconsistent running game, which Belichick will gameplan against.  They will tempt Manning to beat them, which he cannot do.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers 47 1/2 - OVER
Lots and lots of points to be scored today, although I feel the over won't be hit until late in the fourth quarter, when a rallying Arizona Cardinals team scores a touchdown with around 2 minutes to go, just before they fail to recover the onside kick.  One note about the Panthers courtesy of Bomani Jones and his producer.  While discussing that Patrick Peterson could cover Ted Ginn, Jr. man-to-man in order to take him out of the game, Jones's producer states that Corey Jones and Jerricho Cotchery will have to have big games.  Bomani Jones's response is simple.  "It's 2016 and we are talking about Jerricho Cotchery".  Now you may think that quote would lead me to pick Arizona, but that goes to show how great Cam Newton and Greg Olsen have been this year - Carolina is winning with Ted Ginn and Jerricho Cotchery.

Big Bet Game of the Week
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Going back to my boy Hopps, "I've seen this show before".

Last Week's Winners:  2-2
Playoff Winners to Date:  5-3
Last Week's Record:  4-4
Playoff Record:  8-11

Year-to-Date Record: 136-127-5
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 13-6
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: ($205)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $590

Tebow, The Next Newton?

Let me open this way. You will learn nothing new in the next few paragraphs. This is my effort at piling on to the Tim Tebow narrative.

So, Tim Tebow has finally been tapped as the starter in Denver. His early success is almost a guarantee give that he has a bye week, then a homecoming game in Miami against one of the worst teams in football. The Bye week alone should be enough to vault him into the top five quarterbacks in the league. The schedule gets harder after that, but will it matter? Three weeks from now, Tebow will be better than Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers or...wait for it...Cam Newton!

It will be interesting to watch the next few weeks. Tebow does some things that blow your mind - and not in a good way. He had a play in the game against San Diego in Week 5 in which he turned his back to the line of scrimmage for no apparent reason. it was part of some strange pirouette that didn't make sense because he wasn't under that much pressure. What the hell was that? I am sorry. I shouldn't cuss when talking about Tim Tebow.

I get that he is big and athletic and super enthusiastic and a really sweet guy, but he is not a NFL quarterback.

Let me repeat that. He is not an NFL quarterback.

Full disclosure -- I also thought Cam Newton would fail miserably in the NFL. Fail like Tiger Woods in a family structure. I was completely wrong. Cam Newton is big and athletic, and is blessed with a cannon. Newton can make any throw from the pocket and is near impossible to defend when he is on the run. He is also much better at understanding his offense and reading defenses than I ever thought he would be. I am quickly becoming sold on him as a starting quarterback in the league. So far, he is worth the first overall pick that Carolina spent on him.

Tebow, on the other hand, was drafted much earlier than he should have been. It was a mistake to put this kind of pressure on him and on the Denver Broncos franchise. Tebow has poor mechanics, poorer accuracy, and the arm strength of Carl Lewis. That combination will not survive in today's NFL. If you can't make all of the throws in this league, you will not survive!

I am looking forward to this. I am not a true Tebow hater, I just think that the love for this guy borders on irrational! It will be comical watching the UF fans fawn all over him during his "Florida Day" in Miami next week. It will be nauseating listening to the Brett Favre like love affair with him a week from Monday. And it will be satisfying to see him taking his place on the bench with all of the other highly touted, underachieving quarterbacks that simply can't play at the NFL level.

We have seen this story before.