Picks of the Week

Things went downhill last week, fast, but pulled out some of the later games just to get to 7-9.  I need to pull a miracle week 17 and have a great playoffs in order to salvage this year.  The problem is, we don't really know how long some of the stars will end up playing this week.  So, I am just going to make pics without too much thought or analysis.  Here goes ...
My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears +12 at Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay Packers +7 at Detroit Lions

Indianapolis -6 v. Houston Texans

New York Jets +15 at New England Patriots 

Washington Racists -4 at New York Giants

Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Dallas Cowboys

Cleveland Browns +6 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Carolina Panthers +4 at Atlanta Falcons

Cincinnati Bengals +9 at Baltimore Ravens

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 v/ New Orleans Saints

Tennessee Titans -1 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Kansas City Chiefs +3 at Denver Broncos

Los Angeles Rams +5 v. San Francisco 49ers

Los Angeles Chargers -7 v. Oakland Raiders

Arizona Cardinals +8 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Big Bet
Chicago Bears +12 at Minnesota Vikings

The Bears have been at their best against the tougher teams in the league this year.  That should continue.  Even though the Bears will likely not win, twelve points seem like a lot.

Last Week's Record: 7-9
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  116-116-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($455)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1085)

Picks of the Week

Another .500 week (7-7 with 2 pushes), so I am not making a good cut into my deficit.  I need a big, big week.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Rave s -13 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
Although I am not sold on Baltimore, they are 4-1 since their week 10 bye and Indianapolis stinks.

Minnesota Vikings -8 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers in IR means more Brett Hundley.

Cleveland Browns + 6 1/2 at Chicago Bears
John Fox is 0-7 with Chicago when playing as a favorite.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
Carolina wins.  I just cannot pull the trigger on a double digit spread after how tough Tampa played Atlanta last week.

Detroit Lions -3 at Cincinnati Bengals
The Andy Dalton watch is on.

Miami Dolphins +10 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are 11 points better than Miami, but for some reas9n this spread seems weird.  Miami's defenae could keep this closer than it should be.

Buffalo Bills +11 1/2 at New England Patriots
This intra-divisional game should not be a blowout.  If the season ended today, Buffalo would be in the playoffs.

Atlanta Falcons +6 at New Orleans Saints
Atlanta has won 4 straight against New Orleans, and will take over first in the NFC South with a win.  They at least keep it close

New York Jets +6 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Always bet against the west coast team travelling east and olaying the 1:00 start.  66% chance of winning that bet no matter which twams are playing.

Tennessee Titans +6 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
Tennessee is 5-1 at home, but then again, the Rams are 6-1 on the road.  Should be a close game.

Washington Racists -3 v. Denver Broncos
This is Kirk Cousins audition for a job for next year, weather in Washington or Denver.

San Francisco 49ers +4 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jimmy Garrapolo.

New York Giants +3 at Arizona Cardinals
The Giants have been playing tough of late.

Dallas Cowboys -4 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Todd Gurley gassed the Seahawks defense, and is he Keel Elliott will do the same.

Pittsburgh Steelers -9 at Houston
Although I don't like the number, Pittsburgh is substantially better than Houston and are likely Out For Blood after the Jesse James non touchdown last week.

Philadelphia Eagles -9 1/2 v. Oaklamd Raiders
Philadelphia has won its last three home games by over 26 points.

Big Bet
Atlanta Falcons +6 at New Orleans

Getting points in an in traditional rivalry in which the game is important for both teams.

Last Week's Record: 7-7-2
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  109-107-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $80
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($630)

Picks of the Week

Three straight 8-8 weeks, but this is not helping me cut into my deficit.  I have a good feeling about this week.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Denver Broncos -3 at Indianapolis Colts
Denver has no offense.  Indianapolis has no offense OR defense.

Chicago Bears +5 at Detroit Lions
Detroit has won 8 of its last 9 against Chicago, and I don't expect that to change today.  What I do expect is a close game given how the Bears defense has been playing, and Ameer Abdullah's injury and fumble problems.  If he is in the game, he will fumble.  If he isn't, then Detroit becomes one-dimensional on offense.

Los Angeles Chargers -1 at Kansas City Chiefs
So technically this is a road, intra-divisional favorite on a short week, but it is only one point and it is Saturday night rather than Sunday morning, so not that short.  The Chargers have outscored their opponents 131-53 in the last four games, all wins.  Kansas City has a long way to go to recapture their early season offensive form.

Miami Dolphins +3 at Buffalo Bills
If the season ended today, Buffalo (with only 1 more win than the Dolphins) would be in the second wildcard position and make the playoffs.  I do not believe they are a playoff-worthy team.  Neither do I believe in Miami, so I will take the point.  Both teams offenses are awful (Miami 28th in yards, 24th in points; Buffalo 26th in yards and 23rd in points).  So I do not expect a lot of points to be scored in this game, so I will take the extra 3.

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Green Bay Packers
So Aaron Rodgers is coming back from a broken collarbone.  It'll be interesting to see if and how much he plays, as Brett Hundley is still technically the starter.  Doesn't really matter as Carolina has the 7th best pass defense to accompany the 4th best rush defense (5th overall).  They will eat Hundley alive, and Aaron Rodgers - as great as he is - will be a bit rusty.  I see the allure in playing Rodgers as Green Bay is still technically in playoff contention, but there really is no reason to rush him back this year.

Cleveland Browns +7 v. Baltimore Ravens
Yes, I know, I always pick against Cleveland, and it usually works. But, Cleveland has been playing much better as of late (see last week's overtime loss to Green Bay, and Baltimore's offense, despite being 9th in the league in scoring is 27th in total yards and 29th in third down percentage.  Baltimore by 6.

Houston Texans +11 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars will win.  The question is, "by how much:".  Eleven points is a lot in an intra-divisional battle (See Dolphins hosting Patriots from last week), and Houston's defense is 10th against the rush (Jacksonville's forte) and 5th in third-down percentage.  Jacksonville 27-17.

Minnesota Vikings -11 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Eleven points is still a lot, but this is not an intra-divisional matchup, and Cincinnati looks like they have given up.  Chicago - of all teams - took them behind the woodshed last week.  Minnesota should do the same.  Minnesota is third in total defense and 7th in total offense, whereas Cincinnati is 32nd in total offense - DEAD LAST - and 19th in total defense.  Minnesota big.

New Orleans Saints -16 v. New York Jets
With Josh McCown in the game, the Jets would have a fighting chance, and the spread would not be 16.  As it stands, the Jets lead the league in Bryce Pettys and Christian Hackenbergs.  This line couldn't be high enough to make me take the Jets.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 1/2 at New York Giants
Yes, Carson Wentz is out, but Nick Foles does have experiencing starting.  The Giants have experience in being 29th in offense and 32nd in defense, including 31st against the run.  If the Eagles want to simplify things for Foles, they can run LaGarette Blount, Jay Ajayi and Corey Clement at this 31st ranked run defense.

Washington Racists -4 v. Arizona Cardinals
Washington is a disappointing 5-8 right now, but the Racists are at home, and although Arizona is not in the Pacific time zone, they are west travelling east for an early game.  And they are starting Blaine Gabbert.

Los Angeles Rams +2 at Seattle Seahawks
A hugely important game in the NFC, and arguably more important than the Patriots/Steelers game.  If any team will attempt to exploit the Seahawks depleted secondary it will be the Rams.  And, Los Angeles has the horses to get after Russell Wilson, who has played extraordinarily this year.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. New England Patriots
This should be a tough, close game, which is why I am taking the points at home.  I do not discount New England much after last week, as every team has their down day and Gronkowski is back, so I do expect them to play Pittsburgh tough.  Pittsburgh's defense might still be playing emotionally after losing Ryan Shazier, but his production cannot be overlooked.  He led the team in tackles, interceptions, passes defensed and forced fumbles.  Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell do lead the league in receiving and rushing respectively, but New Enlgand leads the league in Belichecks and Bradys.  Give me points.

San Francisco 49ers -1 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
San Francisco - who played teams tough despite losing early in the season, now has a two game winning streak with Jimmy Garapolo at the helm.  Tennessee, although 8-5 and in the playoff hunt, just doesn't seem like a playoff team.  Their offense is 22nd in the league, and their defense, despite being 9th overall, is 22nd against the pass.  A tough close game, but San Francisco gives Tennessee's playoff hopes a ding.

Dallas Cowboys -3 at Oakland Raiders
After a few game hiccup, the Cowboys have now won two games in a row after Tyron Smith has returned at left tackle.  Do not underestimate his importance to the team.  If you don't believe me, go back and watch the weeks 10-12 games against Atlanta, Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Chargers.  Oakland, on the other has won 3 of its last 5, but those victories have come against Miami, Denver and New York Giants (losing to New England and Kansas City).  I don't even recognize this Oakland offense from what I expected after last season.  I blame Marshawn Lynch.  Seriously.

Atlanta Falcons -6 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is another huge disappointment this season, and Atlanta, after struggling earlier this season, seems ot be hitting their stride having gone 5-2 in their last 7, including wins against Dallas, Seattle and New Orleans, as wwell as a 14 point victory over Tampa Bay.in week 12.

Big Bet

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Green Bay Packers
So Aaron Rodgers is coming back from a broken collarbone.  It'll be interesting to see if and how much he plays, as Brett Hundley is still technically the starter.  Doesn't really matter as Carolina has the 7th best pass defense to accompany the 4th best rush defense (5th overall).  They will eat Hundley alive, and Aaron Rodgers - as great as he is - will be a bit rusty.  I see the allure in playing Rodgers as Green Bay is still technically in playoff contention, but there really is no reason to rush him back this year.
This was a tough decision for me as I honestly thought about selecting 5 different games for the big bet.  This was the home team giving up the fewest points.  Other home teams considered were Minnesota (-11) and Washington (-4).  Eleven was just too many points and Washington is too erratic.  Away teams considered include Dallas (-3) and Atlanta (-6).  Both teams were visiting teams and in the case of Atlanta, a Monday night game, which is always more difficult to bet.

Last Week's Record: 8-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  102-100-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($245)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($710)

Picks of the Week

Two straight 8-8 weeks, but both big bets were successful, meaning I am inching my way back from the massive whole I dug for myself to start the season.  Hopefully, I can make a bigger dent in that deficit today.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints
Home team on a short week.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 v. Chicago Bears
No faith in my team for this year.  The third or fourth pick could be very valuable this year for team's needing to trade up for a quarterback.

Indianapolis Colts +3 at Buffalo Bills
I think Nathan Peterman, who will start today, will have a better performance than his last start, bit that doesn't mean it will be good.

Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Just playing the odds here, very few teams ever really win 9 games in a row, right?  It might be cliche, but the trenches will decide this game as Carolina is 5th in rushing and 4th in rushing defense, whereas Minnesota is sixth in rushing and second in rushing defense.  I'll take points at home.

Green Bay Packers  -2 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
Brett Hundley has started to look serviceable lately, and the Browns are, well, the Browns.Josh Gordon is already the teams leading receiver for the season.  OK, not really, but Corey Coleman with 206 receiving yards FOR THE SEASON is their best receiver not named Gordon.

San Francisco 49ers +1 1/2 at Houston Texans
Tom Savage, giving points.

Oakland Raiders  +4 at Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland beat Kansas City in Oakland back when the Chiefs were playing well.  The Chiefs have gone 1-5 since that game (including that loss), so I will take the points.

Detroit Lions pick 'em at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Detroit has the sixth best passing offense and the Buccaneers have the 31st ranked passing defense (and 31st overall).  Tampa Bay is also dead last in third down percentage defense.  I would have thought Detroit would have been giving 2 or 3 points in this game.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at New York Giants
Dallas's offense came alive last week, even without Ezekial Elliott.  This, after being absolutely dreadful for two weeks.  The difference, apparently, is not Elliott.  The difference is Tyron Smith, who returned to the lineup against the Racists.  He is back again this week.

Tennessee Titans -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
The Titans are leading the AFC South.  Yes, leading.  Arizona is helmed by Blaine Gabbert.  Adrian Peterson has given the Cardinals some life since being acquired by Arizona, but Tennesseehas the third best rushing defense giving up 86.2 yards per game.  Tennessee stays atop Jacksonville.

New York Jets -1 at Denver Broncos
The Jets, quarterbacked by Josh McCown, has by far the most stable quarterbacking situation in this game.  Denver's defense is still the fifth ranked defense in the NFL, but their offense is atrocious.

Washington Racists +6 at Los Angeles Chargers
When I first saw this line, I immediately thought Chargers.  They have the second best passing offense and have given up the fourth fewest points in the NFL.  But, something seems fishy; something that I cannot put my finger on to analyze.  Maybe it is that nobody can explain Kirk Cousins, so he might bounce back after last week's shellacking.  I am not sure.  But I am leery of giving up the six points here.  Not confident about this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars -2 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
This is a tough one to decipher.  Seattle, or at least Russell Wilson, has looked great in the last few games (really all season).  And, since Wilson is so elusive, it is hard to sack him - which is Jacksonville's forte. But, Jacksonville rushes better than any team in the league at almost 150 yards per game.Seattle's defense is the seventh best rush defense, but their quality and lack of depth due to the entire secondary being out (practically) that it is going to be hard to trust them to put 8 men in the box to stop Fournette.  This could be dangerous.

Philadelphia Eagles pick 'em at Los Angeles Rams
The two highest scoring offenses in the league, but I am going with Philadelphia because the have the number one rushing defense in the NFL at 68.1 yards per game, and the 3rd best defense in yards per game and 3rd down percentage defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 v. Baltimore Ravens
The Steelers can clinch the AFC North title with a win or tie against the Ravens.  Although Baltimore, led by their defense which has given up the third fewest points in the league, has been surprisingly good of late.  Still, I think they are doing it with smoke and mirrors.

New England Patriots -10 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
So, yes, I am taking an double-digit, intra-divisional, road favorite, which goes against everything I usually hate to pick, but, it is Bill Belichek and Tom Brady versus a very mundane and boring offense led by Jay Cutler, which usually only scores 17 points per game on average anyway.  Assuming New England's defense, which gives up a ton of yards by only the 9th most points, holds Miami near its average, New England would only have to 28 or so points.  That's why they call it gambling.

Big Bet

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 v. Baltimore Ravens
The Steelers can clinch the AFC North title with a win or tie against the Ravens.  Although Baltimore, led by their defense which has given up the third fewest points in the league, has been surprisingly good of late.  Still, I think they are doing it with smoke and mirrors.
I hate waiting for the night game for my big bet, but I really have no choice here.  My other options were:  (1) Colts at Buffalo, but they are away and they are the Colts, even though they are getting points; (2) Green Bay at Cleveland, but they are a visiting team giving points; (3) Detroit over Tampa Bay, but Ameer Abdullah is out of the game; and (4) New England over Miami - but 10 1/2 points is a big number.

Last Week's Record: 8-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  93-92-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $70
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($465)

Picks of the Week

I am running a bit behind, so no analysis this week.  Just picks.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Washington Racists -1 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Chicago Bears -2 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Minnesota Vikings +2 at Atlanta Falcons

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

New England Patriots -7 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at Green Bay Packers

Jacksonville Jaguars -9 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Miami Dolphins +1 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

New York Jets +4 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Tennessee Titans -7 v. Houston Texans

Los Angeles Chargers -13 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Carolina Panthers +5 at New Orleans Saints

Los Angeles Rams -7 at Arizona Cardinals

New York Giants +8 1/2 at Oakland Raiders -5

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Big Bet

Los Angeles Rams -7 at Arizona Cardinals
I also thought about Pittsburgh over Cincinnati, and New England Patriots over Buffalo, but since Pittsburgh and New England are both road intra-divisional favorite, I went ahead and took Los Angeles because they are giving up few points than New England and over Pittsburgh so I would not have to wait for Monday night.

Last Week's Record: 8-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  85-84-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $70
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($535)

Picks of the Thanksgiving Week

Happy Thanksgiving.  One of the things that I am thankful for is you loyal (and not so loyal) readers.  Most of you that read regularly I know, but every once in a while someone will come up to me to mention that they read this column every week (or close to every week), and I am humbled that you are interested in my musings.  I do this not just to keep track of my picks, but as a way to practice my (non-work related) writings, and to add a little humor to my own life.  The fact that others take time out to enjoy (which may be a little strong) is a bonus.  Thank you.

A small step backward last week, but at least I got the big bet correct.  Back to lots of football this week with no teams on  a bye week, so 16 total games, starting with 3 today.  Enjoy your turkey, spaghetti, or whatever food you traditionally eat, and watch some NFL football.  Just don't overdo it today, as there are lots more this weekend!

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Say it with me please - don't take intradivisional, road favorites, especially on a short week.  Plus, Detroit has won three games in a row plus their last four Thanksgiving Day games.  Minnesota has both the fifth ranked offense and defense, and has won six in a row since their loss to ... you guessed it ... Detroit.

Los Angeles Chargers -1 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
Going into this writing, my plan was to simply follow all of my standard betting rules, and a road favorite on a short week was not in the cards, but Dallas has only scored 16 points (with only one touchdown) since the Ezekial Elliott suspension, and the Chargers have won four of their last six.

Washington Racists -7 v. New York Giants
Again, a short week, and even with New York's victory last week, I am still completely unimpressed with the Giants this year.  Home team big.

Chicago Bears +13 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I do not expect the Bears to win this game, but Chicago does have the fifth best rushing game in the NFL, and should be able to keep the ball some and limit Philadelphia's possessions.  Philadelphia's defense is first against the run, but a lot of that can be attributed to the fact that Philly has led in most of the games forcing their opponents to pass the ball.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 at Atlanta Falcons
The Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Buccaneers are certainly not afraid to take chances with the ball, and will likely score enough points against Atlanta's defense to cover the spread.  If Devonta Freeman was available, it would enable Atlanta to use a more balanced offense to work up the score on the 29th ranked defense in Tampa, but he likely isn't playing.  So, Atlanta by 7.

Cincinnati Bengals -8 v. Cleveland Browns
At home, against Cleveland.

Tennessee Titans -3 at Indianapolis Colts
If the Titans want to make the playoffs, they have to beat the teams they should beat, that includes the Colts, who are 25th offensively in points scored, and last defensively in points allowed.

Buffalo Bills +10 at Kansas City Chiefs
Tyrod Taylor is back, and Kansas City couldn't even score 10 points against the Giants, much less 10 points MORE.  The Chiefs are reeling offensively and need to right the ship quickly, and Buffalo looks to bounce back from the short-lived Nathan Peterman experience.

Miami Dolphins +16 1/2 at New England Patriots
New England wins this game easily, but the Dolphins' individual's pride as NFL players show through as they get the back-door cover by scoring a touchdown in the last two minutes to lost by 14.

Carolina Panthers -5 at New York Jets
Carolina has won 3 in a row since an inexplicable loss to the Chicago Bears, and Cam Newton has played more like Cam Newton since the Kelvin Benjamin trade has forced the Panthers to be more creative offensively.  The Panthers' second ranked defense should feast on the 25th ranked Jets offense - although surprisingly Josh McCown's QBR is over 10 points higher than Newton's.

San Francisco 49ers +6 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
This pick at first glance seems ridiculous.  However, despite being 1-9, has played all but about 3 games extremely close, and Seattle is without basically their entire defensive backfield.  Add to that San Francisco's propensity to blitz the quarterback against Seattle's struggling offensive line, and we might have the makings of an upset.  I am not going that far as to predict a win for San Francisco, but they do keep it close.

New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are 20th against the rush on defense, and New Orleans is second in rushing, at 144 yards per game.  New Orleans is also second in passing yards per game, 1st in total yards, and 3rd in points.  Too much firepower for the Rams defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars -5 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Jacksonville has won 4 in a row and 5 of its last 6.  Arizona has Blaine Gabbert starting.

Oakland Raiders -5 v. Denver Broncos
I do not like this game.  I do not like this line.  I am picking Oakland because they are at home, they were embarrassed last week by New England, and because Denver is in even worse shape than Denver.

Pittsburgh Steelers -14 v. Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh's offense is clicking with Le'veon Bell leading the NFL in rushing and Antonio Brown leading the NFL in receiving yards.  The Packers, on the other hand, are led by a quarterback with a 63 QBR.  I wonder if Green Bay - which at the time of Aaron Rodgers' injury was in playoff contention - could have used a Super Bowl caliber quarterback that was (and is) available for signing?

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Houston Texans
Baltimore at 5-5 is in second place in the AFC North, whereas the Houston Texans have Tom Savage starting.

Big Bet

Cincinnati Bengals -8 v. Cleveland Browns
The Hue Jackson drama has reached its apex, as it appears he could be fired as early as after this game.  I really wanted to take the home underdog in the Lions, but I am afraid of a short week big bet.  Others that I considered include the Jacksonville Jaguars (-5 1/2 at Arizona); Carolina Panthers (-5 at New York Jets); and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10 at Atlanta), but all three were on the road.

Last Week's Record: 6-7-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  77-76-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($20)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($605)

Picks of the Week

Inching over .500 for the season in record (though behind in $$).  I would say that perhaps I am figuring out this season, but we all know that is not true.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers -7 v. Tennessee Titans
Finally, a home favorite on a Thursday night with a number that I feel fine with giving.  I would ordinarily have made this my "Big Bet", except that weird things happen on a Thursday night.  Glad they didn't this time.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Detroit Lions
The Bears have played favorites well at home this year (see Atlanta, Pittsburgh), so I will take the points. It doesn't hurt that Detroit isn't significantly great at anything on offense (15th total yards, 29th rushing).  They are the 6th highest scoring team, so not sure that makes sense.

Jacksonville Jaguars -7 at Cleveland Browns
Other than the fact this is Cleveland, we could have had an interesting battle with the top rated rush offense (Jacksonville) versus the 4th rated rush defense (Cleveland).  Too bad Jacksonville's defense will overwhelm Cleveland's offense.

Baltimore Ravens -2 at Green Bay Packers
I don't like giving up the points here, but I feel Danny Woodhead will make one or two plays to secure the victory.  Baltimore's biggest liability is their rush defense, but Green Bay has a next-to-nothing rush offense which is unlikely to take advantage of that liability.

Arizona Cardinals +2 at Houston Texans
What an awful game.  Gimme the points and pray for rain.

Los Angeles Rams +1 at Minnesota Vikings
No joke, this is a battle of two of the titans of the NFC, both leading their respective divisions at 7-2.  It's the Rams 3rd ranked offense in total yards - and 1st in points - versus the Vikings 5th rated defense in total yards - but 15th in points.  I'll take the bonus point and the Rams.

New Orleans Saints -9 1/2 v. Washington Racists
I really, really didn't want to pick the Saints here because that line just seems a bit too large.  If it was 6 1/2 or 7 - I would take the Saints and their second ranked offense easily.  However, seeing that the Racists are 26th in the league in points allowed at 25.8 per game, I expect New Orleans to get at least 35.

Kansas City Chiefs -10 at New York Giants
Not a good feeling with this pick, but it seems like the Giants are getting worse and worse each week.  This might be exactly what Kansas City needs to get back on track.  I expect Travis Kelce to have  a HUGE game.

Miami Dolphins +2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Miami is floundering, but the Buccaneers are in even worse shape.  If Cutler is going to get going with Landry and Parker, this is the game to do it, as Tampa has the 29th rated pass defense in the league.

Buffalo Bills +7 at Los Angeles Chargers
From what I hear, the team (meaning players, not administration) really like Nathan Peterman.  We will see if that faith is rewarded in Peterman's first NFL start.  Perhaps he, and Kelvin Benjamin, can jump start the league's 30th ranked passing offense.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Denver Broncos
Andy Dalton has not lit up the statistics like he has in the past, but he does have an 88.2 QBR, whereas the Broncos defense is 29th in points allowed at 26.6 (while being 4th in total yards).  This can only be explained by losing the field possession battle thanks to the likes of Brock Osweiler, who will be starting today!.

Oakland Raiders +7 v. New England Patriots
Ever stat says to pick the Patriots in this one, except for New England's 32nd (read: last) ranked defense and 32nd ranked pass defense.  Is it time for Carr and Amari Cooper to have another stellar game?  I think so.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 at Dallas Cowboys
I know what you are saying.  "Pepster, why pick a road intra-divisional favorite?"  Did you see the Cowboys offensive line last week?  Brutal!  Plus, the Eagles are third defensively in third down conversion percentage, while being 1st against the rush.  Add to that, Philadelphia has scored at least 20 points in 13 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL.

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
Seattle has won five of their last 6, and are 3-1 at home this season.  The Seahawks will be without Kam Chancellor the rest of the season, but the Falcons will be without Devonta Freeman this week as well.  Chancellor's injury hurts more long term, but the Freeman in jury could be devastating for the Falcons against the 10th ranked rushing defense.

Byes:  Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet

Philadelphia Eagles -6 at Dallas Cowboys
I know what you are saying.  "Pepster, why pick a road intra-divisional favorite?"  Did you see the Cowboys offensive line last week?  Brutal!  Plus, the Eagles are third defensively in third down conversion percentage, while being 1st against the rush.  Add to that, Philadelphia has scored at least 20 points in 13 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL.
This was a difficult week for me to decide my "Big Bet" because nothing really jumped out at me except for the Thursday night game.  Not sure why I am taking this game except for the performance last week by the Cowboys.  Other games under consideration were the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Buffalo Bills.

Last Week's Record: 7-6
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  71-69-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-5
Last Two Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($125)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($585)

Picks of the Week

An absolutely great week last week at 8-3-2.  If it wasn't for a meaningless Dolphins late touchdown to push, a nine-win week would have been amazing.  Let's see if we can't keep this going.  I know better than to say that I am finally figuring out this NFL season, as that would come back to haunt me.  So, I won't.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Arizona Cardinals +6 v. Seattle Seahawks
I am not picking a (1) intradivisional; (2) road favorite; (3) on a short week.  Turns out the damn blocked extra point by Jeremy Lane at the end preserved the push.

Chicago Bears -5 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
A big number, even with Aaron Rodgers out of the game, but the Bears are a solid 8th in defense in the NFL going against the 25th ranked Green Bay offense.  All Chicago needs is a couple of Jordan Howard runs to cover this spread.

New Orleans Saints -3 at Buffalo Bills
New Orleans has the second ranked total offense (3rd in passing/7th in rushing).  Buffalo's defense is 23rd overall (26th against the pass).  Look for Drew Brees to have a monster game!

Detroit Lions -11 v. Cleveland Browns
When Cleveland is involved, I am no longer looking at the number.  Wow, I wish I didn't - that is a big number.  I'll take it anyway.

Pittsburgh Steelers -10 at Indianapolis Colts
Another big number, but I am going to give the 10 points here.  The Colts are last in the NFL in giving up points at 28.9 per game, and at 31st in the league in passing defense, Antonio Brown will literally run free all over the field.

Jacksonville Jaguars -5 v. Los Angeles Chargers
I will not pick this west coast team travelling east to play the early game, especially when facing the 3rd best total defense in the NFL.  Gordon could find some running room, but not enough.

New York Jets -2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We might actually see a shootout - with both quarterbacks going over 300 yards this game.  In the end, I trust the Jets defensive line more than any segment of Tampa's defense.

Cincinnati Bengals -4 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
Just a feeling on this one.A.J. Green owes everyone a big game after his stupid ejection last week.

Washington Racists + 1 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota's defense is statistically stout at 4th in the NFL overall (and 3rd in rush defense), but the Racists defense have looked very promising in the last few weeks as well.  Should be a close game, so I'll take the points.

L.A. Rams -12 v. Houston Texans
Not sure which is worst Tom Savage or Brock Osweiler.  (Hint, it's Osweiler).  Rams defense feasts, and the offense scores enough to cover.

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Atlanta Falcons
I know that Elliott is not going top play, but the Cowboys have won three straight while the Falcons have lsot four of their last five.  McFadden and Morris are solid enough pros to keep the ball moving forward and likely to beat Atlanta outright.

San Francsico 49ers +2 1/2 v. New York Giants
I don't care.  I am not watching this game.Gimme points.

New England Patriots -7 1/2 at Denver Broncos
Complete opposites here:  New England is first in total yards gained, and Denver is second in total yards allowed (4th in passing and 5th in rushing).  New England is 32nd in total yards allowed.  The difference, Brock Osweiler is starting for Denver - so they may not even score at all this game.

Miami Dolphins +9 at Carolina Panthers
I do not believe that the Dolphins will win this game, but I also don't believe Carolina will win by 10 points either.  Both teams are statistically poor on defense (Miami 31st and Carolina 21st) but both are good on defense (Carolina 1st and Miami 10th).  Should make for a close defensive battle.

Byes:  Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles

Big Bet

Jacksonville Jaguars -5 v. Los Angeles Chargers

This made the most sense to me with Fournette coming back to the lineup - likely with a vengeance.  I expect the defense to swallow up the Chargers offense.  Other games under consideration New England -7 1/2 but I didn't want to give up that many points on the road; Dallas +3, and New Orleans Saints (but again, giving up points on the road).

Last Week's Record: 8-3-2
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  64-63-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-4
Last Two Week's Winnings (Losses):  $620
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($460)

Picks of the Week

So, two consecutive OK weeks to try to slowly dig my way out of the hole I build for myself.  Let's see if we can't keep this going.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New York Jets +3 v. Buffalo Bills
A home underdog on a short week?  Yes, please, especially against a team that doesn't score that much anyway.

Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta has not looked that great this year, and Carolina is home, getting points against a divisional opponent.  The wildcard is we do not know how the Panthers are going to react to the Kelvin Benjamin trade.

Jacksonville Jaguars -6 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
The number 1 rushing team in the league hosting the number 30 rushing team in the league.  Since Cincinnati cannot run, they will have to try to pass against the best passing defense in the league.  Ok, so now I hear that Fournette is suspended, meaning the game will depend upon Blake Bortles and Chris Ivory.  My pick is now Cincinnati Bengals + 6 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

New York Giants + 5 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
I do not want to pick the Giants.  I am being forced to do so because they are a home favorite, hosting a west coast team playing the early game on the east coast.  You know what, I am going to edit this pick because of the extra hour gained last night.  My pick is now:  Los Angeles Rams -5 1/2 at New York Giants.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 v. Denver Broncos
So the Eagles are the number 1 team in the league in offensive third down conversions, whereas the Broncos are the number 1 team in the league in defense on third downs.  That being said, Brock Osweiler is starting, so I am picking Philadelphia.

Indianapolis Colts +6 at Houston Texans
Yes, the DeShaun Watson injury hurts a lot.  Duh.  Enough that they lose to the Colts?  Perhaps not, but the Colts can keep it close.

New Orleans Saints -7 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Alvin Kamara is coming into his own, to the point where the Saints are a respectable 13th in the league in rushing.  Tampa Bay is second in the league in passing (outpacing Drew Brees and the Saints at 4th), but the Saints defense is appreciably better than Tampa's.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Baltimore Ravens
I don't think that we can tell a lot from the Ravens based upon last week's annihilation of the Dolphins.  I just feel Tennessee is better than Baltimore.

Washington Racists +8 at Seattle Seahawks
Washington is 2-0 versus the NFC West this year and have won their last two games in Seattle.  I don't think they are going to win today, but 8 points seems a lot given that I feel the Racists' defense can be stout, especially up front against a pedestrian Seahawks offensive line.

San Francisco 49ers +2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
Honestly, who cares?  Give me points in this one, whichever team it is.

Kansas City Chiefs +2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
At some point the Ezekial Elliott yo-yo train has to affect the Cowboys, even if Elliott does play.

Oakland Raiders -3 at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are last in the NFL in points and yards per game.  Enough said.

Detroit Lions -2 at Green Bay Packers
Not just a road favorite, but a road intra-divsional favorite.  Still, the Packers are 0-2 with Aaron Rodgers, and I don't think they can win this one either.

Byes:  Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers

Big Bet

Washington Racists + 8 at Seattle Seahawks

This just made the most sense to me because the Racists can be formidable up front on defense and the Seahawks offensive line is suspect, despite the acquisitions of Duane Brown.  I think Washington will keep it under a touchdown.  My other choices was Carolina receiving points at home, which I strongly considered, but I am worried that the Panthers offense might sputter without the threat of Kelvin Benjamin.  I also looked at the Rams and Oakland, but they are giving up points on the road, and the Colts are receiving points as well, I just don't trust them.

Last Two Week's Record: 15-12-1
Last Two Week's Big Bet: 1-1
Year-to-Date Record:  56-60-3
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-4
Last Two Week's Winnings (Losses):  $175
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,080)

Picks of the week.

Decent week last week.  Travelling today so no time to write my analysis - only picks.  Will update my totals soon.

Miami +3 at Baltimore (Thursday)
Minnesota -10 1/2 over Cleveland (in London)
New Orleans -9 1/2 v. Chicago
Oakland +2 1/2 at Buffalo
Cincinnati -10 1/2 v. Indianapolis
New England -7 v. Los Angeles Chargers
New York Jets + 6 1/2 v. Atlanta
San Francisco +13 1/2 at Philadelphia
Carolina + 1 1/2 at Tampa Bay
Houston + 6 1/2 at Seattle
Washington + 2 1/2 v. Dallas
Pittsburgh -3 at Detroit
Kansas City -7 v. Denver

Picks of the Week

Absolutely horrible week,  but I cannot be mad at that.  How was I supposed to know that the likes of Brett Hundley and Ryan Fitzpatrick were going to figure prominently in my losses.  I am away this weekend, so very limited analysis on my picks.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City -3 at Oakland Raiders
I never would have taken a road intra-divisional favorite on a short week.  However, since I have missed almost every Thursday night game, I went the opposite.  Damnit.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Carolina Panthers
The Bears have played good teams tough at home (See Atlanta, Pittsburgh).

Tampa  Bay Buccaneers +3 at Buffalo  Bills
Buffalo's offense is horrific.  There 3-2 record is basically smoke-and-mirrors.

Tennesse Titans -6 at Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is a trainwreck.  Tennessee is starting to get in sync.

New Orleans -3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Although a road favorite, Brees has passed for over 300 yards each of the 6 times he has played Green Bay.  The Packers' offense - which already was a house of cards in the run game, now has questions in the passing game without Aaron Rodgers.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Indianapolis Colts
Admittedly, this pick is based upon Leonard Fournette being able to play in this game, which is still up in the air.  I just have to think Chris Ivory is enough to run on the Colts if Fournette cannot play.

Arizona Cardinals +3 at Los Angeles Rams
I really like this Rams team, but it appears Adrian Peterson might have rejuvenated the Cardinals offense - although yards might be tougher against the Rams defense.  Arizona is 5-0-1 in the last 6 games against NFC west opponents and 9-3-1 in the past 13 versus the division.  I don't need Arizona to win, just keep it close.

Miami Dolphins  -3 v. New York Jets
Miami was not ready for the Jets the first game, and I don't think the Dolphins will overlook them this time.  The way Cutler is playing, we should expect a healthy dose of Jay Ajayi against the Jets 28th ranked rush defense.

Minnesota Vikings -4 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
I changed this pick 3 or 4 times.  I have no idea, except that Minnesota is better than Chicago, and the Bears handled the Ravens.  Minnesota is shorthanded offensively because of injuries.  Baltimore is just shorthanded offensively.

San Francisco 49ers +6 v. Dallas Cowboys
Every game the Cowboys get Elliott will be important for the rest of the season, but of San Francisco's last 5 losses have been by a total of 13 points.  I'll take a home favorite.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 1/2 v. Cincinnati Steelers
The Steelers really have their offense going, with both Bell and Brown being focal points (as they should be).

Denver Broncos -1 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers
Hey, it's the Chargers and I only have to give 1 1/2?  OK.

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 at New York Giants
While I am already picking too many road favorites.

Atlanta Falcons +3 at New England Patriots
This is not last year's Patriots.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 1/2 v. Washington Racists
The Eagles are flying high, and I don't see that slowing down with a loud crowd at home on Monday night against a divisional rival.

Big Bet

Tennessee Titans -6 at Cleveland Browns
So a road favorite as my big bet?  New rule - always pick against the Browns.  They played strong and with emotion the first couple of weeks, but now they don't even know which of the 3, yes 3, quarterbacks they want to use.  Other options for me were:  Jacksonville, New Orleans and Pittsburgh.  I didn't select Jacksonville here because of the uncertainty with Fournette; I didn't select New Orleans because Green Bay always does something to piss me off; and I didn't select Pittsburgh because Cincinnati would be dominated and then score a last minute touchdown to cover, or something equally as weird.

Last Week's Record:  4-10-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  41-48-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($550)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,255)

Picks of the Week

Two weeks without analysis, that ended up OK.  Let's see what happens this week with some actual pick analysis.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Short week road teams are not supposed to cover, much less win outright.

Chicago Bears +5 at Baltimore Ravens
I don not expect the Bears to win this game, but I don't fully trust the Ravens either.  The Bears played the Vikings relatively close last week, so I expect that to continue, and Baltimore is only averaging 18 points per game anyway, so it might be tough to cover.

Miami Dolphins + 13 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
The Dolphins look like a trainwreck right now, but Atlanta may not have anyone to catch the ball for them except for Julio Jones, who is  a great option, but it does help to have at least somebody else on the other side for the defense to have to cover.

Houston Texans -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
DeShaun Watson is coming into his own, and the Browns have already made a QB change to Hogan.  The Texans are 4th in the league in scoring at 28.8 points per game, and the Browns are only 25th in points allowed.  Look for Watson, Miller, Hopkins, et. al. to have huge numbers today.

Green Bay Packers -3 at Minnesota Vikings
I don't normally like taking road divisional favorites, but Green Bay has won 5 of their last seven at Minnesota.  Coming into this game, statistically speaking, the Vikings are more dominant on offense (9th in total yards to 16th), whereas it is the Packers who are more dominating on defense (6th in passing defense to 20th).  Aaron Rodgers likes those numbers.

Detroit Lions +5 at New Orleans
Raise your hands if you know that Detroit is outscoring New Orleans per game this year?  No you didn't.  Detroit is also third in rushing defense, going against a team that is trying to run the ball to take pressure off Drew Brees.  They are going to have to keep relying on Brees in this game.

New England Patriots -9 at New York Jets
The Jets have gone three-and-out on every opening drive this year.  If they do that to the Patriots, they could end up down 14-0 to a Patriots team that is 1st in passing and total yards, and 3rd in points.  For as much talent as people say the Jets have on their defense, they are 30th in rush defense and 25th in total  yards.

Washington Racists -10 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
I hate this line.  I was hoping for 7 1/2 or 8.  But, I have to take Washington as San Francisco is travelling from the west coast to play an early game, which is murder on the road team historically.  That and San Francisco is bad offensively (22nd in total yards and 25th in points scored) and just as bad on defense (28th in total defenses and 22nd in points allowed).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Another road favorite, ugh.  Carson Palmer has led the Cardinals to the second most passing yards in the league, but he has almost as many INTs (5) as TDs (6).  Some of Palmer's yards can be attributed to the fact that they HAVE to pass, since they cannot run after the loss of David Johnson.  I am not sure that Adrian Peterson can help with that.  Palmer, and possible Peterson, are shells of their former selves.  Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is second in passing yards per game, with Dough Martin now back after a full game under his belt.

Jacksonville Jaguars -1 v. L.A. Rams
The Jaguars - behind Leonard Fournette - are number one in the league in rushing at 165.2 yards per game, and the Rams are 27th in rushing defense.  Gurley will get his yards as well, but this game is about Leonard Fournette.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Yes the Chiefs are undefeated.  Yes the Steelers have not been as dominating as expected this year (see loss to Chicago Bears).  So, this looks like Kansas City in a romp.  However, Kansas City's defenses is 27th in total  yards allowed and 25th in passing yards allowed.  I think Antonio Brown is going to have a huge game.  Kareem Hunt can have a big game as well as the Steelers are 28th in rushing defense.

Oakland Raiders -3 v. L.A. Chargers
Offensively the Raiders have been horrible (30th in total yards; 26th in passing yards), but Derek Carr's return has to give them a spark and Amari Cooper some receptions, right?

Denver Broncos -13 v. New York Giants
Big line for a Sunday night game, but the Giants are horrible, and they lost almost every receiver on their roster.  It is time for the practice squad to try to step up against Denver's 1st ranked defense.  Won't happen.

Indianapolis Colts +7 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
The only winners in this game are those that do not watch.  Bad offenses (Indianapolis is 25th and Tennessee is 24th).  Bad defenses (Colts are 31st and Titans are 22nd).  I'll take the points, because, why not.

Big Bet

Houston Texans -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
DeShaun Watson is coming into his own, and the Browns have already made a QB change to Hogan.  The Texans are 4th in the league in scoring at 28.8 points per game, and the Browns are only 25th in points allowed.  Look for Watson, Miller, Hopkins, et. al. to have huge numbers today.
A lot of points to give up for a big bet, but the Texans are at home, whereas the Packers are giving up points on the road, and Denver is giving 13.  I also thought about Jacksonville, but its Jacksonville.

Last Two Weeks' Record:  16-13-1
Last Two Weeks' Big Bet:  1-1
Year-to-Date Record:  37-38-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $155
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($705)

Picks of the Week

Since I am literally travelling home right now from a college football game, and because it is close to start time, no analysis this week, just picks.  I was 8-8 last week, and will update my record when Ibget somewhere stationary.

On to the picks:

Tampa Bay +4 v.  New England Patriots

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v.  Buffalo Bills

New York Jets - 1 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Carolina Panthers + 1 1/2 at Detroit Lions

San Francisco 49ers +1 at Indianapolis Colts

Miami Dolphins -1 v. Tennessee Titans

New York Giants -3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Philadelphis Eagles -6 v. Arizona Cardinals

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Los Angeles Rams -2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Oakland Raiders -3 v. Baltimore Ravens 

Green Bay Packers + 2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys 

Houston Texans +2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Chicago Bears +3 v. Minnesota Vikings

Big Bet:  Green Bay +2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Divisional Series Roundtable

So, the corny, but fascinating one-and-done wild card games are completed, and the major league divisional series start shortly.  The guys at WeMakeItRain gathered together to discuss the four series before they unfold.

Pepster:  So guys, we are going to give our thoughts and predictions for the four divisional series.  Who do you got?

Hopps:  Cubs over Dodgers, Yankees over Indians.  Cubs over Yankees; that will make for great tv.

Pepster:  Those are some good predictions, but why don't we start with the divisional series,  you know, the games that are starting today.  Let's take them in the order they commence. Boston and Houston. 

Hopps.  Sox lose in 3.  Astros definitely.

Pepster:   But wait, don't you live in New England?  Must be the old defeatist attitude is back.  Sinickal?

Sinickal:  Houston.  I hate Sox fans more that I hate that flat, smelly city in Texas.

Pepster:  Ah yes, Houston.  The city that ALWAYS sleeps.  But, I will take them.  All-World starting pitcher Dallas Kuechel complained about the Astros' lack of activity at the trade deadline worked, as Houston then went after - and got - Justin Verlander.   And, their lineup is stacked with Altuve, Springer, Correa, Reddick, Gurriel, and the old man - who always seems to produce in the playoffs - Carlos Beltran.  Especially if David Price ends up playing a major role.  Then definitely the Astros.

How about the other American League series, the Yankees and Indians?  I like the Indians, and not just because of the winning streak.  Cory Kluber is the best single pitcher in this series, including the Yankees bullpen, and because Chapman is still shell-shocked from all the innings in the World Series last year.

Hopps:  (On the phone with someone else) I'll take Tampa and the over tonight.  Oh, right, sorry.  Yankees.  What a World Series if its Cubs/Yankees.

Sinickal:  Indians.  Cleveland will pull out all the stops to ensure that Gabrielle Union stays after leaving Chicago.  She is clearly the good luck charm here.

Pepster:  No wonder you went Houston.  You are rooting for the Kate Upton - Gabrielle Union ALCS.  To the national league, the Nationals versus the Cubs.  Silas, you have an interesting rooting interest as you live down the street from Nationals Park but are a lifelong Cubs fan.

Silas:  That's right on both accounts.  My father taught me growing up that New Hampshire was a suburb of Chicago.  But, I cannot openly root for the Cubs; that's bad luck.  Besides, WE don't have Gabrielle Union anymore. 

Pepster:  D-Wade did leave Chicago, that is true.  But, experience means something, and so long as Trae Turner doesn't get on base with Jon Lester pitching (or else he will steal everything in the park, not just the bases), the Cubs will win this series.

Hopps:  I have Chicago in the World Series, so I have to pick them to win this series.

Pepster:  That is solid logic. OK, out west.  Colorado and Los Angeles.  I pick the Dodgers.  Yes, they lost 16-17 recently, but they have the magical Cuban with the amazing batflips - and Yasiel Puig to boot.  (I was referring to Yasmani Grandal, for those that don't get it).  Bellinger, Seager, Turner and veterans to go with Kershaw, Yu and Jansen on the mound.  L.A. it is.

Hopps:  Dodgers.

Sinickal:  L.A.  Gabrielle Union went to high school there, and works there.

Pepster:  I am sensing a theme, and I like it.

Hopps:  I'm enjoying the use of the word "WE".  Like you were involved.

Pepster:  On that note, we are going to have to wrap-up our roundtable discussion.  Enjoy the divisional series, and see everyone back here for the ALCS and NLCS.

Picks of the Week

Boy was last week brutal.  I am a bit busy this morning, so no analysis, just picks.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears +7 at Green Bay Packers

New Orleans Saints -4 v. Miami Dolphins in London

Atlanta Falcons -6 v. Buffalo Bills

Pittsburgh Steelers - 3 at Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at Cleveland Browns

Los Angeles Rams +6 at Dallas Cowboys

Houston Texans +3 v. Tennessee Titans

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Carolina Panthers +9 1/2 at New England

Jacksonville Jaguars -4 at New York Jets

San Francisco 49ers +6 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Philadelphia Eagles +2 at Lost Angeles Chargers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. New York Giants

Oakland Raiders +3 at Denver Broncos

Indianapolis Colts +13 at Seattle Seahawks

Washington Racists +7 at Kansas City Chiefs

Big Bet

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. New York Giants

Last Week's Record:  5-11
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  21-25-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($875)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($860)

Football Wrap-Up

Here are my thoughts from Week 3 of the NFL season, based purely on what I was able to see.  For the first time this season (thanks Irma) I watched a lot of football, so I have a pretty good sample size.

Game of the Week

Chicago Bears 23 v. Pittsburgh Steelers 17 - There were a lot of good games, and multiple overtime games, but this one was the closest/best.  Coupled with the Sherrick McManis blocked field goal returned by Marcus Cooper who slowed down and was stripped at the goal line, but with the ball batted out of the end zone by Pittsburgh kicker Chris Boswell for a penalty as time ran out of the first half, giving the Bears one untimed play from the one, which they then false started to settle for a 23 yard field goal.  Crazy.

Best Team Performance

Minnesota Vikings - They thoroughly dominated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, winning the game 34-17, and it wasn't even that close.  The Buccaneers defensive backfield might as well have been absent as Vikings wide receivers did whatever they wanted; Stefon Diggs finished with 8 receptions for 173 yards and Adam Thielen had 5 receptions for 98 yards.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Baltimore Ravens - I think the Ravens missed their flight to London, losing 44-7 to the Jacksonville Jaguars, but Baltimore's score came after surrendering 44 straight points to the Jaguars.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Stefan Diggs, WR - Minnesota Vikings.  The aforementioned Diggs gained 173 yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on 8 catches and scored 2 touchdowns.  So far this year he is the best receiver not named "Antonio Brown".

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

DeMarcus Lawrence DE, Dallas Cowboys - Lawrence tallied 3 sacks against the Arizona Cardinals, as the Cowboys defeated the Cardinals 28-17 on Monday night.  He now has 6 1/2 on the season to lead the NFL.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Sherrick McManis, DB - Chicago Bears.  In the first quarter he was the gunner on a punt, and fielded the muff from Steelers' punt returner Eli Rogers.  At the end of the second quarter, McManis blocked the field goal that led to the craziness described above.

Most Impressive Team Performance (Premier League)

Machester City.  They defeated EPL bottom dwellers Crystal Palace 5-0, as they should have.  What made their performance the most impressive of the weekend is that they possessed the ball 72% of the time.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Premier League)

Alvaro Morata, F - Chelsea - He scored a hat trick against Stoke City and is now tied for the league lead in goals with Romelu Lukaku, the Manchester United forward that everyone expected to sign with Chelsea.  And he did so during the week in which Diego Costa, the high scoring forward that Morata replaced at Chelsea, completed his transfer to Atletico Madrid.

Goat of the Week

Marcus Cooper, CB - Chicago Bears - Pulled his best Leon Lett impression at the goal line as time expired in the first half.

Goat of the Week (Premier League)

No real goats this week.

Hit of the Week

Donald Trump's reputation among rich NFL owners', as many of them stood arm-linked-in-arm with their players before and during the national anthem.

Breakthrough Performance

DeShaun Watson, QB - Houston Texans - He almost became the first rookie QB to ever go into New England and win, and if not for a scared decision by Coach Bill O'Brien to not go for first down on fourth - instead kicking a field goal and giving Tom Brady back the ball - he might have accomplished it.  He still finished with 301 yards passing and 41 yards rushing in a 36-33 defeat.

Finally

Carson Palmer, QB - Arizona Cardinals - After the first two games, most people had written Palmer off for dead.  However, against the Dallas Cowboys, he had a phenomenal first half, and finished the game 29-48 for 385 with 2 touchdowns.  Welcome back Carson Palmer.

Impact Injury

Bryan Bulaga, T - Green Bay Packers.  The rock of the Packers offensive line went out of the game with an injury and didn't return.  If he is out for a number of games, expect Aaron Rodgers to take a bit more of a beating than usual.

Team Rising

Jacksonville Jaguars - By thumping the Ravens the way they did, people are starting to remember, and perhaps the team will as well, that they do have some serious talent.

Team Falling

Oakland Raiders - Yes they are still 2-1, but the offense has not shown up in either of the last two games.  Since their defense outside of Khalil Mack isn't stellar, this is discouraging for Raiders fans.

Best Teams

(All undefeated teams will be ranked ahead of all others until all teams have at least 1 loss, then I will rank them based upon which teams I think is best, regardless of record.)

1. Kansas City Chiefs

2. Atlanta Falcons

3. New England Patriots

4. Minnesota Vikings

5. Philadelphia Eagles

Worst Teams

(All winless teams will be ranked here until all teams have at least 1 win, then I will rank them based upon which teams I think are the worst, regardless of record.)

32. New York Giants

31. San Francisco 49ers

30. Cincinnati Bengals

29. Los Angeles Chargers

28. Cleveland Browns

Middle Teams

15. Jacksonville Jaguars

16. Los Angeles Rams

17. Buffalo Bills

18. Baltimore Ravens

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

4. Carolina Panthers v. New England Patriots - One of two really big inter-conference games this week as both teams enter 2-1.  Much more at stake for the Panthers who are on the road, but will have to keep up with the Falcons and fend off the Buccaneers in the NFC South.

3. Detroit Lions v. Minnesota Vikings - The winner takes the lead in the NFC north (along with Green Bay if the Packers win Thursday).  This may not be the best division in football, but top-to-bottom this could be the closest division in the NFL.

2. Washington Racists v. Kansas City Chiefs - Not because of all the Native American themes, logos, clothing and other paraphernalia that will be all over this Monday night clash, but because Washington looks like they could be a very good team, and to prove it all they have to do is beat the team that has looked the best through the first 3 weeks.

1. Las Vegas Raiders v. Denver Broncos - One of these teams could conceivably fall 2 games behind the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West.  Should be a tough, good game.

Trivia

Since I have not written after the first two weeks of NFL games, so you get two trivia questions today - although they are related.

By starting this year, Tom Brady is one of two NFL Quarterbacks to have started for 15 years all for only one team.  Who is the other?

Tom Brady is also one of only 2 players in the four major North American sports (baseball, basketball, football, hockey) to play 18 years, all under only one head coach.  Who is the other?

Sports Bar Review of the Week

No review this week

Trivia Answer

No answer as of yet.  Tune in next week.

The Ole College Try

What a crazy couple of weeks in college football, and that is just with the University of Florida's endings.  Here is the recap of the season to date, with an emphasis on last week's games.  For those that don't remember, I write this column as if every player is a Heisman Trophy candidate. Why? Because it is ridiculously ludicrous that the networks, including the World Wide Leader, nay, especially the World Wide Leader, emphasize the Heisman Trophy race all season at the expense of everything else.  Consider this my sarcastic homage to stupid reporting.

Heisman Watch

Quarterback Edition

Favorite - Baker Mayfield -Oklahoma - He doesn't have the yards of Josh Rosen or Mason Rudolph, but he is 9th in passing yards, 3rd in Touchdowns, and has the biggest win of the season.  With Lamar Jackson and Mason Rudolph both having lost, and Josh Rosen having lost twice, it is going to take a lot to move Mayfield out of this position.

Rising - Will Grier - West Virginia - We wanted, and still want, the Oklahoma and Oklahoma State game to mean something, but the West Virginia - Oklahoma game on November 25 has the potential to really mean something!

Sleeper - Luke Falk - Washington State - The undefeated cougars are rolling, primarily because of Luke Falk.  He has thrown for 1378 yards, and more importantly, has completed 77 percent of his passes.  His 14 TDs to 1 interception is astounding.

Falling - Sam Darnold - USC - Struggled at times against what should have been an overmatched California Bears team.  He still may be the top pick in the draft, but he isn't the Heisman favorite.

Running Back Edition

Favorite - Saquon Barkley - Penn State - He gained 211 yards and scored 1 TD against a tough Iowa defense as the Nittany Lions eeked out a 21-19 win.  He also had 94 yards receiving off 12 receptions.  Right now nobody else is close.  Barkley is the Heisman frontrunner overall.

Rising - Bryce Love - Stanford - He leads the NCAA in rushing with 787 with a 10.8 yard per carry average.  Stanford's two losses will keep him off the Heisman podium, however.

Falling - Jordan Scarlett - Florida - Not only has he been suspended the entire season, but freshmen Malik Davis and Kadarius Toney looked way more exciting running the ball than Scarlett ever did.

Sleeper - Mark Walton - Miami - Even though Miami has only played two games because of Hurricane Irma, Walton is still 34th in rushing with a whopping 13 yards per carry.  He is going to fly up this list with more games..

Wide Receiver Edition

Favorite - James Washington - Oklahoma State - Easily the best receiver in the country.  Has 520 yards on only 19 receptions (a 27.4 ypc).

Rising - Cam Phillips - Virginia Tech - 34 receptions, an NCAA best 523 yards and 5 TDs.

Falling - Ahmmon Richards - Miami - Last year's freshman All-American has yet to play this season.

Sleeper - Steve Ishmael - Syracuse - Leads the NCAA in receptions with 45, including 11 grabs in a close 35-26 defeat at LSU.  Plus, he was just added to the Biletnekoff Award watch list.

Defensive Edition

5.  Khalil Hodge.- LB - Buffalo - 52 total tackles, including 1 forced fumble.  Primarily on here because the last time Buffalo had a LB named Khalil - he turned out to be pretty good (Mack).

4.  Demetrius Monday - CB - Kent State - Your NCAA leader with 4 interceptions.

3.  Peter Kalamabayi - DE - Stanford - Leads the NCAA with 8 sacks, and he does it in a tough conference.

2.  Anthony Winbush - DE - Louisville - He has 8 sacks and leads the NCAA with 3 forced fumbles.

1.  Frank Ginda - LB - San Jose State - Leads the NCAA in tackles with 73 (21 more than the next highest total).  And it isn't because he is the only player on the defense that can tackle opponents, as teammate, safety Ethan Aguayo, is 5th in the NCAA in tackles with 48.

Player(s) to Watch

Keith Bryant - QB - Clemson - He doesn't have the eye-popping stats that DeShaun Watson did, and he may not look as exciting as DeShaun Watson did, but he does look in control of a team that looks destined for the playoffs.

My New Favorite Player

Logan Woodside - QB - Toledo - The senior is in complete control of an extraordinary offense, and he looks well on his way to another 4,000 yard passing season.  This is what a guy that stays four years at a mid-major school looks like - a great college quarterback.  He may not translate to the NFL, but he looks great for Toledo.

Players of the Week (Just Week 2)

5.  Mark Walton - RB - Miami - He gained 204 yards on only 11 carries in Miami's victory over Toledo after a three-week layoff due to Hurricane Irma.

4.  Manny Wilkens - QB - Arizona State - He threw for 347 yards in the Sun Devils' upset victory over Oregon.

3. Zach Smtih - QB - Baylor - The only loser on this list, but he kept Baylor in the game against Oklahoma falling 49-41 despite his 403 yards and 4 TDs on 33-50 passing.

2.  Bryce Love - RB - Stanford - he rushed for 263 yards as the Cardinal stomped UCLA.

1. Saquon Barkley - RB - Penn State - He gained 305 total yards from scrimmage, and Penn State needed every yard in a close victory over Iowa.

Goat of the Week (Player Edition)

Nick Haynes - OL - Kentucky - His 10 yard late game holding penalty proved costly as the Wildcats missed a very long field goal at the buzzer by a mere 3 or 4 yards.  The fact that it wasn't a holding penalty notwithstanding, Haynes has to feel awful for costing Kentucky its first win against the Gators in 31 tries.

Goat of the Week (Coach Edition)

Mike Gundy - Oklahoma State - The Cowboys, who seemed on track for a potential playoff-qualifying rivalry game against Oklahoma, just were not ready/prepared for Texas Christian.  Playing in the Big 12 with one loss will not get you into the playoffs.

Predicted Playoffs/Championship Match Ups

Alabama (1) v. USC (4)/ (2) Clemson v. (3) Oklahoma

Again, still way too early to tell as tons of teams are still alive.

Final Unbeatens

Alabama, Central Florida, Clemson, Duke, Georgia, Memphis, Miami, Michigan, Minnesota, Navy, Oklahoma, Penn State, San Diego State, South Florida, Texas Christian, Texas Tech, USC, University of Texas - San Antonio, Utah, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, Washington State, Wisconsin

Rant(s) of the Week

No rants this week.  Which in and of itself is an upset.

Under Performance of the Week

Oklahoma State.  This was supposed to be the year they challenged for the Big 12 title; which they still can.  But losing to TCU doesn't help matters.

Last Year's Trivia Answer (or perhaps even two years ago)

As a reminder, the question was:

UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen threw for at least 300 yards for the 12th time in his collegiate career, breaking the school record held by whom?

The answer is Cade McNown.

Trivia Question of the Week

Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson has set the school record for touchdown passes with his 88th TD in last week's game.  Whose record did he break?

Match up(s) to Watch

5. Miami v. Duke - Other than my number 1 game to watch, this is the game of the week that could go a long way to determining a place in the ACC championship game, as 2 unbeatens play at the site of one of the more crazier endings in NCAA history.

4.  Mississippi State v. Auburn - The winner takes a big step forward in seeing who the number one contender is against Alabama in the SEC west.

3. Vanderbilt v. Florida - Not because this will be a good game, but have you seen the last two endings in Florida's last two games?

2.  USC v. Washington State - Can Luke Falk make a big step toward making Washington State a real contender in the Pac-12?  He can with a win over USC.

1.  Clemson v. Virginia Tech - Two undefeated ACC teams with incredibly strong defenses face-off in Blacksburg, which I can attest is an excellent college football crowd..