Picks of the Week

So, two consecutive OK weeks to try to slowly dig my way out of the hole I build for myself.  Let's see if we can't keep this going.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New York Jets +3 v. Buffalo Bills
A home underdog on a short week?  Yes, please, especially against a team that doesn't score that much anyway.

Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta has not looked that great this year, and Carolina is home, getting points against a divisional opponent.  The wildcard is we do not know how the Panthers are going to react to the Kelvin Benjamin trade.

Jacksonville Jaguars -6 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
The number 1 rushing team in the league hosting the number 30 rushing team in the league.  Since Cincinnati cannot run, they will have to try to pass against the best passing defense in the league.  Ok, so now I hear that Fournette is suspended, meaning the game will depend upon Blake Bortles and Chris Ivory.  My pick is now Cincinnati Bengals + 6 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

New York Giants + 5 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
I do not want to pick the Giants.  I am being forced to do so because they are a home favorite, hosting a west coast team playing the early game on the east coast.  You know what, I am going to edit this pick because of the extra hour gained last night.  My pick is now:  Los Angeles Rams -5 1/2 at New York Giants.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 v. Denver Broncos
So the Eagles are the number 1 team in the league in offensive third down conversions, whereas the Broncos are the number 1 team in the league in defense on third downs.  That being said, Brock Osweiler is starting, so I am picking Philadelphia.

Indianapolis Colts +6 at Houston Texans
Yes, the DeShaun Watson injury hurts a lot.  Duh.  Enough that they lose to the Colts?  Perhaps not, but the Colts can keep it close.

New Orleans Saints -7 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Alvin Kamara is coming into his own, to the point where the Saints are a respectable 13th in the league in rushing.  Tampa Bay is second in the league in passing (outpacing Drew Brees and the Saints at 4th), but the Saints defense is appreciably better than Tampa's.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Baltimore Ravens
I don't think that we can tell a lot from the Ravens based upon last week's annihilation of the Dolphins.  I just feel Tennessee is better than Baltimore.

Washington Racists +8 at Seattle Seahawks
Washington is 2-0 versus the NFC West this year and have won their last two games in Seattle.  I don't think they are going to win today, but 8 points seems a lot given that I feel the Racists' defense can be stout, especially up front against a pedestrian Seahawks offensive line.

San Francisco 49ers +2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
Honestly, who cares?  Give me points in this one, whichever team it is.

Kansas City Chiefs +2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
At some point the Ezekial Elliott yo-yo train has to affect the Cowboys, even if Elliott does play.

Oakland Raiders -3 at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are last in the NFL in points and yards per game.  Enough said.

Detroit Lions -2 at Green Bay Packers
Not just a road favorite, but a road intra-divsional favorite.  Still, the Packers are 0-2 with Aaron Rodgers, and I don't think they can win this one either.

Byes:  Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers

Big Bet

Washington Racists + 8 at Seattle Seahawks

This just made the most sense to me because the Racists can be formidable up front on defense and the Seahawks offensive line is suspect, despite the acquisitions of Duane Brown.  I think Washington will keep it under a touchdown.  My other choices was Carolina receiving points at home, which I strongly considered, but I am worried that the Panthers offense might sputter without the threat of Kelvin Benjamin.  I also looked at the Rams and Oakland, but they are giving up points on the road, and the Colts are receiving points as well, I just don't trust them.

Last Two Week's Record: 15-12-1
Last Two Week's Big Bet: 1-1
Year-to-Date Record:  56-60-3
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-4
Last Two Week's Winnings (Losses):  $175
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,080)