Picks of the Week - NFL Week 15

 

Finally, a week like it should be.  Easily in the black and looking to get a streak going. Perhaps I am figuring this season out - if a bit late - as I have finished in the Top 4 in my confidence league each of the past two weeks as well.  Typing that is likely my kiss of death. 

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Tampa had better be angry after losing - AT HOME - to the New Orleans Saints last week.  Plus, Atlanta has lost 7 of 8, and the Buccaneers are home on a short week.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 at Chicago Bears

Chicago has a tendency to play close games, so the line feels a little large here to me.  Despite giving up hardly any yards (2nd in Total Defense; 1st in Passing Defense), the Browns give up a surprising amount of points (23.2 - good for 17th), but not enough to be blown out.

New York Giants -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Only because the Giants are coming off their bye week, so they might be rested a bit.  Otherwise I hate giving points in an intra-divisional game.

Philadelphia Eagles -11 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Yes this is a lot of points, but the Eagles offense actually showed some life offensively last week against the Chargers, with Saquon Barkley rushing for 122, and A.J. Brown receiving for 100.  If not for 4 interceptions and a ton of fumbles, Philly runs away with that game.  The problem for me is that was Monday, making this a short week, but then again, the Raiders are a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, so that is a wash.  Eagles by 3 touchdowns.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Two horrible defenses (32nd v. 23rd), but Cincinnati is going in the right direction since the return of Joe Burrow whereas Lamar just doesn't look like Lamar.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional game.

Houston Texans -9 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are bad, and imagine what could happen if Houston had just a modicum of a running game, instead of being 23rd in the league?

New England Patriots +1 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

New England stunned Buffalo in Buffalo back in Week 5, in the second game of its 10-game winning streak.  Now the Patriots are getting points at home.  Yes, please!

Jacksonville Jaguars -11 1/2 v. New York Jets

This is a whole lot of points, but the Jaguars are 9th in scoring in the league and have the number 1 rush defense in the entire NFL.  The Jets have the 26th scoring defense in the NFL, so this game could get ugly early.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are clearly the better team, however, they are on a short week.  And Justin Herbert looked extremely limited with his broken left hand trying to heal.  If the Eagles didn't turn the ball over 1,432 times on Monday, that game would not have been close.

Seattle Seahawks -13 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

This is a HUGE number, but I do have to try to take into account not just the physical loss of Daniel Jones at Quarterback, but also the emotional toll on the team.  I could easily see the Colts slipping out of the playoffs altogether, and this last quarter of the season being UGLYYYYY.

Tennessee Titans +12 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

I am not taking two double-digit favorites in a row, especially after already taking the Jaguars and Eagles as double-digit favorites. The Titans scored more than enough to defeat the difficult Browns defense, and could easily keep this to a 9 or 10 point game.

Green Bay Packers -2 1/2 at Denver Broncos

This Broncos offense stinks.  Technically they are in the statistical middle in almost every category, but man they are not fun to watch and not explosive.  Not sure they can score enough to keep up with the Packers, especially with Josh Jacobs back.

New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

I always like getting points at home in an intra-divisional game, and wouldn't it be something if the Saints defeated Tampa Bay and Carolina on consecutive weeks when those to teams are locked in a heated battle for the divisional title?

Detroit Lions +5 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Two really good teams, and they both can score in bunches - and quickly.  In that case, I will take points.

Dallas Cowboys -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Cowboys were handled by the Lions last week, but that doesn't stop me from buying them for six points against a Minnesota team that is wildly inconsistent, especially when it comes to quarterback play.  I would have thought this line might be 3 1/2 or 4 after Minnesota's 31-0 clocking of the Washington Commanders, but I am going to have to live with giving the extra points.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Dolphins are statistically better offensively and defensively than the Steelers, and this pick is largely made by the fact that Devon Achane has an additional day to heal his ribs.  I might re-visit this pick if his playing status changes before now and then.  The Dolphins are also hot, having won 4 in a row and 5 of their last 6.  

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Two horrible defenses (32nd v. 23rd), but Cincinnati is going in the right direction since the return of Joe Burrow whereas Lamar just doesn't look like Lamar.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional game.

In Joe Burrow we trust!!!  He has even given Chase Brown some life as a primary running back.  Hit, some.  Love getting points at home, though!

Last Week Record: 8-5-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 99-107-2

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 4-10

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $400

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,920) 

NFL 3/4 Season Review

 

So the NFL season is now officially 3/4 over, as 14 of 18 weeks are completed, but each team has played 13 games (of 17) and no team has a bye remaining.  So here is a look at the season to-date, along with what each team needs to occur over the last 4 games. 

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (11-2) The Patriots went 4-0 during the last quarter, and is definitely looking like a team that could make a Super Bowl run.  What New England needs for the stretch run is for everybody to stay healthy.

Buffalo Bills (9-4) A mediocre 2-2 during the last quarter and definitely showing some weaknesses.  What Buffalo needs is to limit turnovers offensively, and for a wide receiver to step up down the stretch.  

Miami Dolphins (6-7) The Dolphins wend undefeated during the last quarter and are still in the playoff hunt.  What Miami needs most is to determine whether Tua really is it quarterback going forward, so the team can structure its draft around protecting him and solidifying the defense, because he has weapons.

New York Jets (3-10)

Showing a little fight, but still bad.  What the Jets need the most is for a team that has its quarterback of the future to secure the number 1 overall draft pick - like the Giants.  That way, New York can trade its first-round pick this year, its first-round pick in 2027, and Indianapolis' first-round pick in 2027, for the overall number 1 this year.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)

A few weeks ago the fans were openly shouting "Fire Mike Tomlin," but here after Week 14 the team is still in first place in the division, albeit by a single game.  What Pittsburgh needs to do is tighten up its defense, which sits at 28th in the NFL.  Yes, the offense is 29th, but Aaron Rodgers is still capable of making plays when it counts.  The defense has to step up.

Baltimore Ravens (6-7)

Baltimore is almost out of the playoff hunt (2 games out of the last wildcard), and who would have thought that at the beginning of the season.  The Ravens need to start identifying talent in the free agent pool and in college that can help next year.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-9)

The Bengals have shown signs of life since Joe Burrow's return.  If people didn't know before, he is an elite quarterback.  The Bengals need to invest heavily in offensive lineman to help keep him healthy.

Cleveland Browns (3-10)

Yes they have only one win this quarter of the season, but the Browns have found their quarterback for the future in rookie Shadeur Sanders, even if they won't admit it yet.  What Cleveland needs to do is find playmaking receivers to pair with fellow rookie running back Quinshon Judkins.

AFC SOUTH

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)

This is the biggest change in the whole NFL, as the Colts previously led this division at the last update and are now in third.  The Jaguars have taken advantage of that slide by going 4-1 this quarter.  What the Jaguars need to do is re-establish Brian Thomas, Jr. as a number 1 receiver to go along with a solid running game (Travis Etienne is 10th in the NFL, and should eclipse 1,000 yards this week).

Houston Texans (8-5)

Houston went 5-0 this quarter riding the league's best defense, by far.  What Houston needs is someone - anyone - to give them a semblance of a running game as Nick Chubb and Woody Marks are currently not getting the job done (23rd in the NFL).

 

Indianapolis Colts (8-5)

Not only are the Colts sliding, but they lost quarterback Daniel Jones for the season with a torn achilles.  The Colts need someone to take the reins to calm the offense and allow their strength (Jonathan Taylor and solid outside playmakers) to flourish.  Could that be Phillip Rivers?

Tennessee Titans (2-11)

Still at the bottom of a high-powered division but showing signs of life and actually winning last week.  What the Titans need to do is keep losing to get as high a draft pick as possible, so they can trade it for a haul to a quarterback needy team.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (11-2)

The Broncos went 4-0 this quarter but did not look good doing it.  Denver needs for its offense to really breakout, like everyone saw down the stretch last year, otherwise they will forever be seen as a paper tiger.

Los Angeles Chargers (9-4)

A very solid 3-1 quarter, and a balance that makes them a difficult team to beat.  What the Chargers need is for Justin Herbert to recover from his broken non-throwing hand very quickly, as he looked a bit unsure of himself and the offensive playcalling was limited against the Eagles.  They did win though!

Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)

This quarter?  1-3 and 2 games out of the last wildcard spot.  Their season is DONE.  Statistically the main problem is they are mediocre in the running game (17th).  But the primary problem that needs to be addressed is playmakers on both sides of the ball.  Rashee Rice can make plays, but nobody on either side of the ball scares anybody anymore (except Patrick Mahomes, of course).

Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)

Among the worst teams in the league, and they seem to be getting worse each week, going 0-5 this quarter of the season.  The Raiders need a quarterback.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (8-5)

Cracks in the armor of the defending NFC champions, going 2-3 in the last quarter.  What they need is Jalen Hurts to play like the Eagles expect (although his connection to A.J. Brown is heating up) and the defensive line to play like the team expects, for entire games!

Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)

Really coming around behind the number 1 offense in the NFL, going 3-1 in the last quarter.  Need a pass rush to help the defensive backs, as the passing defense is last in the NFL.

Washington Commanders (3-10)

They have fallen off the cliff, going 0-4 this quarter and into the bottom echelon of the league.  Some of that was key injuries (Jayden Daniels; Terry McLaurin), but this team has holes - especially on defense.  They need to fill holes all throughout the defense.

New York Giants (2-11)

The Giants also lost all of their games this past quarter of the season, but Jaxson Dart, a healthy Cam Skattebo, and a healthy Malik Nabors has promise offensively moving forward, along with a find a TE in Theo Johnson.  The Giants need to win the number 1 pick so they can trade back for a haul, with a team like Atlanta or the Jets that have resources - and multiple high-round picks.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers (9-3-1)

The Packers went 4-1 this past quarter to earn the current #1 seed in the NFC.  The rematch against the Chicago Bears in Chicago in two weeks could mean A LOT!  All the Packers really need is Josh Jacobs to stay healthy; he means the world to this offense.

Chicago Bears (9-4)

Kept pace with the Packers by going 4-1 during the last quarter of the season.  A close loss this past week sets up a very interesting rematch in two weeks.  The Bears need to find a pass rush.  Montez Sweat has experienced a bit of a surge with the return of Grady Jarrett to the interior, but they need more, either from the line or blitz packages.

Detroit Lions (8-5)

An unexpected swoon in the last quarter, including a Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers has the Lions on the outside of the playoffs looking in right now (albeit by only one game).  The Lions need to work on their third-down plays.  Despite a prolific offense (3rd overall) they are 18th in converting third-downs; whereas on defense they are T11th in preventing third downs.

Minnesota Vikings (5-8)

Really stumbled this year after a phenomenal regular season ending in a playoff dud.  What Minnesota needs is Sam Darnold back.

NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)

Tampa Bay stays on top of the division despite being 1-4 this quarter.  Tampa - if they wish to go far in the playoffs - needs to develop more consistency on offense with the return of Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving.

Carolina Panthers (7-6)

THE surprise team of the NFL this year.  Carolina needs to find a way to score points, preferably some through the passing game.

Atlanta Falcons (4-9)

A team that started off with so much promise, went 1-4 in the third quarter.  What Atlanta needs is a healthy Michael Penix and Drake London for next season.

New Orleans Saints (3-10)

This is about where everybody thoughts would be.  What New Orleans needs is a complete makeover; just blow the team up except the youngsters, start accumulating draft assets and work from there.

NFC WEST

Los Angeles Rams (10-3)

The two best teams (but not two highest ranked teams) reside in the same division, and the Rams are one of them.  Being nitpicky, the Rams need to convert offensive third downs at a better clip, as they are 17th in converting at this point.

Seattle Seahawks (10-3)

See Rams, Los Angeles.  Seattle needs to be more efficient in rushing the football, as they are 18th in the NFL in that metric.

San Francisco 49ers (9-4)

San Francisco goes 3-1 in the past quarter and styed exactly the same in the divisional rankings.  What they need, more than anything, if they want to make noise in the playoffs, is to re-introduce Ricky Pearsall into the offense so that he is a legitimate threat.

Arizona Cardinals (3-10)

By far the worst team in the division.  What the Cardinals need most is to understand Kyler Murray isn't it and that they need to part ways.

POWER RANKINGS - (The parentheses is the team's ranking at the midway point)

1.  New England Patriots 11-2 (3)

2.  Denver Broncos 11-2 (2)

3.  Los Angeles Rams 10-3 (7)

4.  Seattle Seahawks 10-3 (6)

5.  Green Bay Packers 9-3-1 (9)

6.  Los Angeles Chargers 9-4 (10)

7.  San Francisco 49ers 9-4 (11)

8.  Chicago Bears 9-4 (13)

9.  Buffalo Bills 9-4 (4)

10.  Jacksonville Jaguars 9-4 (14)

11.  Detroit Lions 8-5 (12)

12.  Houston Texans 8-5 (22)

13.  Philadelphia Eagles 8-5 (8)

14.  Indianapolis Colts 8-5 (1)

15.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-6 (5)

16.  Pittsburgh Steelers 7-6 (15)

17.  Carolina Panthers 7-6 (17)

18.  Dallas Cowboys 6-6-1 (19)

19.  Kansas City Chiefs 6-7 (16)

20.  Miami Dolphins 6-7 (29)

21.  Baltimore Ravens 6-7 (20)

22.  Minnesota Vikings 5-8 (18)

23.  Cincinnati Bengals 4-9 (25)

24.  Atlanta Falcons 4-9 (21)

25.  Cleveland Browns 3-10 (26)

26.  Washington Commanders 3-10 (24)

27.  New York Jets 3-10 (31)

28.  Arizona Cardinals 3-10 (23)

29.  New Orleans Saints 3-10 (30)

30.  Tennessee Titans 2-11 (32)

31.  New York Giants 2-11 (28)

32.  Las Vegas Raiders 2-11 (27)

Biggest Movers:  Houston Texans +10, Miami Dolphins +9, Indianapolis Colts -13, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10

QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Defensive MVP - Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Carson Schwesinger, Cleveland Browns

Coach of the Year - Liam Cohen, Jacksonville Jaguars

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts (last time, as he is out for the rest of the season)

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 14

 

At one point in time late in the third quarter of the one o'clock window, I was 6-1 for that segment of games (8-3 overall) including winning my big bet.  I finished that segment 3-4, and losing the big bet.  I hate this year.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Detroit Lions

The once-vaunted Lions are 2-3 since their bye week.  Their 17th ranked pass defense now faces the number 1 passing offense in the NFL, and CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are playing like world-beaters.  Plus, this isn't a short week for either team.

Pittsburgh Steelers +5 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

It is well past the time to jump off the Ravens are Super Bowl favorites/world beaters and jump on the I'll take points when playing the Ravens bandwagon.  Could be lots of points with the 23rd (Ravens) and 28th (Steelers) defenses.

Atlanta Falcons +7 v. Seattle Seahawks

I HATE this pick, but Seattle is playing in the 1:00 window on the east coast, so there is at least that opportunity for Atlanta to cover.  

Tennessee Titans +4 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

I am not sure either of these teams can score 4 1/2 points total, much less 4 1/2 points more than the other team.

Miami Dolphins -3 at New York Jets

Although I do not like giving points on the road in an intra-divisional game, the Dolphins are playing like a real football team in having won two games in a row.  The Jets actually beat the Falcons last week, but the Dolphins have looked better.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Tampa is getting back its weapons (Bucky Irving last week, Godwin maybe this week), and New Orleans may be missing Alvin Kamara and the shine to Tyler Shough may be losing its luster.

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Getting points with a team that is playing better than its opponent and gets this game at home?  Yes, please!

Washington Commanders +1 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

What happened to the Vikings?  Oh, quarterback play?!  Where is Sam Darnold?  Oh yeah, gone.

Cincinnati Bengals +5 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Joe Burrow is most definitely back, and the Bills have not looked good in over a month.

Chicago Bears +7 at Green Bay Packers

Yes, I love that my Bears are in first place in the entire NFC!  That is absolutely amazing to me.  But no, I don't think they are the best team in the NFC.  But I think they can play to within a touchdown of absolutely anyone, especially now that Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon are back, turning their secondary from a weakness into an absolute strength.  Green Bay wins, but this game is close.

Las Vegas Raiders + 7 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

As someone who has invested heavily in Bo Nix (2 leagues), Cortland Sutton (3 leagues) and Evan Engram (2 leagues) in fantasy football, nothing would please me more than this offense to finally get cooking at the level most people expected for this year.  But, they have been incredibly mediocre (16th Total Offense, 14th Passing Offense and Rushing Offense, 13th Scoring Offense), and they haven't won by more than 3 since October 26, and before that once on September 29, against an array of good, mediocre and bad teams.  Added to the fact this is an intra-divisional game and the Raiders are at home, I'll take the points and just hope Brock Bowers continues to carry the Raiders offensively.

Arizona Cardinals +8 v. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have been hit-or-miss for about a month now, and Jacoby Brissett has a solid 97.4 quarterback rating, which might just lead to a closer-than-expected game.  Add to that the fact that Marvin Harrison, Jr. might return to action for the Cardinals, and I will take the points at home in an intra-divisional game.

Houston Texans +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have been struggling, losing 3 of their last 4 games, and now they are giving up points to the NFL's top-ranked defense in both Total Defense and Scoring Defense.  And, with four wins in a row, and 5 in their last six games, Houston is looking like a playoff teams.  I will take the points.

Los Angeles Chargers +2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I don't fully know what to make of this game with the possibility (likelihood?) that Justin Herbert will miss the game, but even with taking this into account the Eagles are the 24th ranked offense in the NFL, and the Chargers are the 2nd-ranked team in total offense.  With those stats, I will take points at home, for sure.

Bye Weeks:  Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Las Vegas Raiders + 7 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

As someone who has invested heavily in Bo Nix (2 leagues), Cortland Sutton (3 leagues) and Evan Engram (2 leagues) in fantasy football, nothing would please me more than this offense to finally get cooking at the level most people expected for this year.  But, they have been incredibly mediocre (16th Total Offense, 14th Passing Offense and Rushing Offense, 13th Scoring Offense), and they haven't won by more than 3 since October 26, and before that once on September 29, against an array of good, mediocre and bad teams.  Added to the fact this is an intra-divisional game and the Raiders are at home, I'll take the points and just hope Brock Bowers continues to carry the Raiders offensively.

At least if I lose this Big Bet then that means my fantasy teams will have flourished!

Last Week Record: 7-9

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 91-102-1

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 3-10

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($455)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,320) 

Ich verstehe nur Bahnhof – It’s Draught Time Y’all!

It’s time again…

You remember that in 2013, the WeMakeItRain staff came up with the idea of a draft to determine the best episode of the ESPN 30 for 30 series. After some debate, we ranked early episodes of the series from best to "I didn't even care that happened" using a snake draft. In 2023, we decided to bring the draft back to determine the best episode of Chappelle’s show. Both drafts were ridiculous and angered loved ones, so we documented them here.

Continuing with the theme of big, irrelevant, time-consuming things that only make sense to a few people, the staff thought we should rank the greatest college sports traditions. Maybe our best idea. We drafted those last year and they are documented here.

So, what could we do next? Obviously, we needed to amp up the ridiculousness and obscurity to a whole other level!

Several weeks ago, Pepster and Sinickal were in Germany to support a family member running the Berlin Marathon. Overall, it was a fun trip that featured a lot of site-seeing, very good food, museum visits and, you guessed it, another draft! And since we were abroad, the decision to draft the greatest German athletes seemed like a no brainer.

That brings me back to the title of this post. Why “Ich verstehe nur Bahnhof” you ask? Well, the German phrase literally translates to “I only understand train station,” and is taken to generally mean “I am unable to understand what is being said.”

THIS explains Sinickal in this draft! Unable to understand most of what is going on. Sure, I did my research on as many Germans or people that I think might actually be German based on other circumstances in preparation, but Pepe arrived with a wealth of information about people I had never even heard of. In fact, I believe he made a few of them up.

Okay, maybe they all are real people. However, like me, I don’t believe that most of our audience will recognize many names in this list.

With that, on to the draft of the Best German Athletes!

The rules for the draft were simple. We flipped a coin to determine the first pick with a snake draft following for what we consider to be the top 40 German Athletes. The “athletes’ are broadly defined for a wide range of sports, but must be German or of German descent. Quite honestly, if you are unfamiliar with some of these, you should go look them up.

Sinickal won the coin toss for this draft and picked first. The results are presented in reverse order from 40th to 1st:

40.        Olaf Kolzig (Ice Hockey)

39.        Satou Sobali (Women’s Basketball)

38.        Maria Hofl-Riesch (Alpine Skiing)

37.        Martin Schmitt (Alpine Skiing)

36.        Franz Wagner    (Men’s Basketball)

35.        Miraslov Klose (Soccer)

34.        Philip Lahm (Soccer)

33.        Dennis Schroder (Men’s Basketball)

32.        Sebastian Vollmer (Football)

31.        Felix Loch (Luge)

30.        Fransceco Friedrich (Bobsled)

29.        Lothar Matthaus (Soccer)

28.        Sebastian Vettel (Formula One)

27.        Anna Freisinger (Speed Skating)

26.        Georg Hackl (Luge)

25.        Uwe Von Schamann (Football)

24.        Andre Lange (Bobsled)

23.        Maria Koch (Track and Field)

22.        Wolfgang Hoppe (Bobsled)

21.        Martin Kaymer (Golf)

20.        Magdalena Neuner (Biathlon)

19.        Manuel Meuer (Soccer)

18.        Birgit Fischler (Canoe)

17.        Gerd Muller (Soccer)

16.        Ernie Stautner (Football)

15.        Heike Drechsler (Track and Field)

14.        Natilie Geisenberger (Luge)

13.        Bernhard Langer (Golf)

12.        Jesse Owens (Track and Field)

11.        Isebel Werth (Equestrian)

Before we get to the Top 10, I should make a few comments on this draft. First, the 12^th pick by Sinickal should raise some eyebrows. Afterall, isn’t Jesse Owens American? Sure. But the pick of Isebel Werth at 11 by Pepster led to the conclusion that we were already thin in German athletes and Sinickal believes that in today’s culture, Hitler would have tried to claim credit for his 1936 Olympic performance.

Second, you might notice some trends in here with regard to how Pepster and Sinickal viewed the draft. Pepster’s draft prioritizes achievement in the chosen sport. As an example, we can re-visit Isebel Werth. Google her! She is as accomplished as anyone in this list despite the fact that Sinickal STILL may have never heard of her.

Sinickal’s draft prioritizes impact in more of the mainstream. Drafting someone like Uwe Von Schamann, a kicker with the Miami Dolphins is more about impact on high visibility sports followed full time by fans. I don’t think there is a “right” way to do a draft like this, and it really doesn’t matter anyway since it is our draft.

10. Jan Ullrich (Cycling) – Despite a complicated legacy, Jan Ullrich had an extremely accomplished cycling career highlighted by winning the 1997 Tour de France, the 1999 Vuelta a Espana, and gold and silver medals at the 2000 Olympics. Ullrich retired from cycling in 2007 after being banned from the Tour de France under speculation of doping. However, Jan made cycling a thing in Germany.

9. Detlef Schrempf (Basketball) – Born in Germany, but raised in the United States, Schrempf was a three-time NBA All-Star and two-time NBA Sixth Man of the Year. He played 16 years in the NBA for three teams, reaching the NBA finals with the Seattle SuperSonics. He also represented West Germany in the Olympics and was inducted into the FIBA Hall of Fame in 2021

8. Jurgen Klinsmann (Soccer) – Sinickal made this pick for his fame as the US National Team coach, but his career is quite impressive. He played in the 1990 FIFA World Cup with the German national team. He is the second German footballer to hold the record for the most goals in a World Cup. He made more than 200 appearances in Bundesliga with more than 100 goals. He went on to be the coach of the German national team in 2004. Then again in 2006, finishing third in the world cup. Pepster believes this was too high for him.

7. Claudia Pechstein (Speed Skating) – Sinickal’s reaction to Pepster’s pick was “WHO?” Yeah, this was the point in the draft when Sinickal realized he didn’t know if he could get to 40 picks. However, Google Claudia! Damn. Nine Olympic medals. Five gold, two silver, and two bronze, and she was the most successful Olympic speed skater, male or female, of all time until 2018. She is also the successful German winter Olympian of all time. Of course, she wouldn’t be a successful German without a doping scandal. She was banned from all competitions for two years after the 2009 World Championships.

6. Franz Beckenbauer (Soccer) - Widely considered Germany's greatest Futbol player, a World Cup winner as a player and coach, and a key player in winning the 1974 World Cup. Sinickal knew who this was and also had him in the top 10 on his draft board.

5. Michael Schumacher (Formula One) - Probably the right spot from both Sinickal and Pepster for this pick. Schumacher was ridiculous. He won a record-setting seven Formula One World Drivers' Championship titles, and—at the time of his retirement—held the records for most wins (91), pole positions (68), and podium finishes (155), while he maintains the record for most fastest laps (77). He was voted the most influential person in Formula One history in 2020, was the highest paid athlete in the world in 1999 and 2000, and was the first athlete billionaire in 2005.

4. Boris Becker (Tennis) - Pepe had him lower (“I had him 10”). Sinickal obviously disagreed. Why? Becker is considered one of the greatest tennis players of all time, winning 49 career singles and 15 doubles titles, including six singles majors: three Wimbledon Championships, two Australian Opens and one US Open. He won 13 Masters titles, an Olympic gold medal, and led Germany to two Davis Cup titles and is often credited as the pioneer of power tennis with his fast serve and all-court game.

3. Katarina Witt (Figure Skating) – A legend. Period. She won multiple Olympic and World Championships and dominated figure skating competitions for more than half a decade. Her dominance is attributed to her use of technical skills, and theatrical performance that captivated both the audience and the judges.

2. Dirk Nowitzki (Basketball) - One of the greatest European players ever, NBA MVP, NBA Champion and arguably the Dallas Mavericks greatest basketball player ever. The evolution of the Stretch 4 is him. Nikoli Jokic runs because Dirk Nowitzki first walked.

1. Steffi Graf (Tennis) – This was the number one choice for both Pepster and Sinickal. The real work in this draft started with Pick #2. She is among the greatest tennis players of all time, winning 22 Grand Slam titles and getting inducted into the International Tennis Hall of Fame. Steffi won her first junior tournament at the age of 6 and in 1988, was the youngest woman to 500 career wins, and became the third woman to win the grand slam. She also won Olympic Gold in 1988 to achieve what is referred to as the Golden Grand Slam. No questions who was Number 1 here.

So, there you have it. Another draft in the books and the staff at WeMakeItRain moves on to find another draft topic. Until then, look out for us in February when we live blog the Amtrak Series. We will explain that when we get there.

Picks of the Week - NFL - Week 13

 

Hey, I actually won my Big Bet last week!!!  But, still underwater.  I hate this year.  A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers +3 at Detroit Lions

Both squads are in a 3-way battle for conference supremacy (along with the Chicago Bears).  I am going to go with the Packers defense (3rd in Total Defense/4th in Scoring Defense/5th in Pass Defense/6th in Rush Defense) especially since they are getting points.  I cannot pick all 3 home teams on a short week, right?

Dallas Cowboys +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Fresh off a really ugly win over the Philadelphia Eagles, the Cowboys are getting points on a short week at home.  Kansas City had a great comeback over the Indianapolis Colts but are still in a life-or-death game every week in order to make the playoffs.  That is going to catch up to them eventually, and this number 3 offense is really clicking at this moment.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Once gain home team/short week.  The Bengals should get a boost from the return of Joe Burrow, but their one-demensionality on offense (30th in rushing), could be detrimental against a rapidly-improving Baltimore Ravens defense that although 22nd in the NFL, that is serious improvement over the last few weeks from when they were ranked dead last.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 v. Chicago Bears

The Bears have pulled a lot of rabbits out of their collective hats, and on paper actually look a bit better than Philadelphia, but there is no question the Eagles are a better team.  And, they are at home on Friday, I'll give the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars -6 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

I know I should pick Tennessee as a home intra-divisional dog, but they just don't warrant the pick  right now, not at under a touchdown.  Next-to-last in offense and 26th in defense, facing a Jacksonville team that suddenly finds itself only 1 game behind the division-leading Colts in the AFC South.

 

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at New York Jets

The J-E-T-S- Jets-Jets-Jets are awful.  Just awful.  

Los Angeles Rams -10 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Going to violate a gambling law no matter which way I pick, as Carolina is on a short week, but LA is traveling east and playing in the 1:00 window.  So, going against the double-digit favorite would be the next step, but I can't do that, as the Rams might be the best team in football, and the 49ers may have broken Carolina's spirit on Monday night by winning a game Carolina had every right to win.

Miami Dolphins -6 v. New Orleans Saints

Miami on a two-game winning streak; let's make it 3, and they cover.  Saints star Alvin Kamara is questionable for this week, and that could be a tremendous loss for a rookie quarterback.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

It is looking like the Buccaneers are getting Bucky Irving back; not so much for Trey Benson and Arizona.  Although the Cardinals have looked better with Jacoby Brissett at the helm.

Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Cleveland's defense is legitimate (3rd overall), and Shadeur Sanders does bring some swagger to the offense that the fourteen other starters didn't have this season.  Plus, San Francisco is playing in the Eastern Time Zone in the 1:00 window, AND on a short week.  Not to mention that they were basically handled by Carolina's defense, which isn't even close to as strong as Myles Garrett on his own.

Houston Texans +4 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

As great as Cleveland's defense is, they are not even close to the level of the Houston Texans.  The number 1 defense versus the number 2 offense.  The big difference is that Houston's offense is mediocre, whereas Indianapolis' defense gives up a lot of yards (24th).  This game is close, maybe a field goal either way.

Minnesota Vikings +11 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks absolutely win this game, as J.J. McCarthy has ... let's call it struggled.  But 11 1/2 is a lot of points.  A lot.  So, I'll take them.

Buffalo Bills -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Both teams in the playoff hunt, but the Bills have lost 2 out of 3 and 3 out of 6.  The Steelers have just looked - mediocre.  So long as Josh Allen doesn't turn the ball over, Bills win by 10.  But that is a big IF ...

Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Only 8 1/2?  Really?  And the Raiders might be without Ashton Jeanty.

Denver Broncos -6 at Washington Commanders

Denver should be fresher coming off of a bye.  And, playing against the 31st ranked defense in Total Defense that is also 29th against the pass (and 28th overall) might just be what Bo Nix needs to unlock Courtland Sutton, Evan Engram, Tony Franklin and the rest of the passing game.

New York Giants +7 1/2 at New England Patriots

The Patriots are better and will win, for sure.  But the Giants have played 4 straight relatively close games, and Jameis Winston is a national treasure.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Cleveland's defense is legitimate (3rd overall), and Shadeur Sanders does bring some swagger to the offense that the fourteen other starters didn't have this season.  Plus, San Francisco is playing in the Eastern Time Zone in the 1:00 window, AND on a short week.  Not to mention that they were basically handled by Carolina's defense, which isn't even close to as strong as Myles Garrett on his own.

Getting points at home, with all of the surrounding situation for the 49ers as mentioned above.  I am betting on defense. 

Last Week Record: 6-7-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 84-93-1

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 3-9

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($20)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,865) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 12

 

An actual winning week, but once again I am undone by the damn Big Bet, which I lost --- AGAIN!  I just cannot figure this season out.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Buffalo Bills -4 1/2 at Houston Texans

I am supposed to pick the home team on a short week, I know.  And Houston does have the best defense in the NFL.  But Buffalo scored 44 on a very good Tampa Bay defense last week, and I just cannot pick Davis Mills in a prime time game.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 1/2 at Chicago Bears -2 1/2

Both teams defenses give up A LOT of yards.  The Bears are 27th and the Steelers 28th in Total Defense.  The difference is the Bears are 4th in Total Offense, AND they are at home.  Now that is what I would have written if the Chicago Bears were not literally playing without ALL 3 starting linebackers!!!  All three.  Tremaine Edmunds, T.J. Edwards, and Noah Sewell.  And they are 27th in Total Defense WITH those guys.  Ugh.

Green Bay Packers -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay's defense is 5th in Total Defense and 7th in scoring defense, and J.J. McCarthy has proven himself to be very pedestrian with a 61.7 QB Rating.

Indianapolis Colts +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Although Kansas City needs to play desperate in this game just to have a chance at making the playoffs, and desperation and talent are a dangerous combination, Indianapolis is just a better team, especially offensively.  KC may win, but I am going to take the points, as the Colts score enough to cover - at least.

 

New England Patriots -6 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati has the worst defense in the NFL (last in Total Defense, last in rushing defense, last in scoring defense and 31st in passing defense).  That is just too much to overcome while J'Marr Chase is suspended and Joe Flacco - although efficient - is still aging.

Baltimore Ravens -13 1/2 v. New York Jets

This is a lot of points, but this is an unconventional year.  AND the J-E-T-S- Jets Jets Jets are B-A-D!

Detroit Lions -10 v. New York Giants

The Lions are going to be chomping at the bit after being stifled by the Eagles' defense last week after exploding against the Commanders.  I think this could be a three-score game.

Seattle Seahawks -13 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Honestly, I just took two double-digit favorites, why not take a third?  (Because that is stupid, but this year has been crazy ...).

Arizona Cardinals +3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

This pick is predicated solely on the return of Trey Benson, coupled with Jacksonville overestimating their decimation of the Los Angeles Chargers last week, and thus under-preparing for Arizona.  If no Benson, this pick is reversed.

Cleveland Browns +4 at Las Vegas Raiders

You mean I get points against the 30th ranked offense (Total and Scoring)?!  And, I get them when the other team (the Raiders) are on a short week?!  And I have the second-best Total Defense in the NFL?!  What's the catch?  Oh, Shadeur Sanders' first start ...  I'll take it!!! (Crying emoji!)

Dallas Cowboys +3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Getting points at home against an intra-divisional rival is always going to be my go-to play, even though it is a short week for the Cowboys.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Los Angeles Rams

This was a very tough game for me to pick.  It might feature the return of Buccaneers' starting running back Bucky Irving, and if it does, he would be well-rested for some reps/carries and alternate with Rachaad White and the surprisingly spry Sean Tucker to at least keep the Rams defense guessing.  Will that be enough to win?  Likely not, especially on the road.  But a 30-24 score with the Rams winning?  I can see that.

Carolina Panthers +7 at San Francisco 49ers

I am taking Carolina because of the points, and because Rico Dowdle is having a heckuva season running the ball (4th in the NFL), because San Francisco is still without Fred Warner, and nobody has figured out Carolina and how they are 6-5 this year.  So, since my first impression is that San Francisco should win easily, I am picking Carolina.

Byes:  Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins, Washington Commanders

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cleveland Browns +4 at Las Vegas Raiders

You mean I get points against the 30th ranked offense (Total and Scoring)?!  And, I get them when the other team (the Raiders) are on a short week?!  And I have the second-best Total Defense in the NFL?!  What's the catch?  Oh, Shadeur Sanders' first start ...  I'll take it!!! (Crying emoji!)

It seems like this year I am going to get this pick wrong anyway, might as well really go down behind Shadeur Sanders' first start!

Last Week Record: 9-6

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 78-86

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-9

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $75

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,845) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 11

 

Well, back on track with a winning week from a record standpoint, but my "Big Bet" has become the bane of my existence this year, falling to 2-8!!!  That is horrible.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots -12 1/2 v. New York Jets

Of course I am going to pick New England here, even though I do not like the 12 1/2 points.  Short week, so home team, and even though the Jets have a pretty good pass defense (8th overall), they are 26th in scoring defense, whereas the Patriots are 8th in scoring.  And now that they are finally starting to unleash Trayveon Henderson, I can see this being 31-14.

Miami Dolphins -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders in Berlin, Germany

Mike McDaniels just looks like the type of guy that would win this game and then go clubbin' in Berlin.  By the way, the Moxy Obstanhof's hotel bar is open 24 hours a day!!!  True story.  Oh yeah, and no Jayden Daniels.

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

I want to be soooo wrong here, but this Bears defense struggled at times against both Cincinnati and the New York Giants in the last two games - albeit both were wins.  Minnesota is a lot better than both of those teams.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Only, AND I DO MEAN ONLY, because this game is in the 1:00 time slot in Jacksonville.  I could make up some other reason, like Jacksonville is angry at themselves after last week's collapse against Houston, but even that doesn't make up for the talent difference between these two teams.  So, they only reason is getting points at home in the Eastern time zone in the 1:00 game against a Pacific time zone team.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Yes, Tampa Bay lost last week, but they lost to the Patriots which, it turns out, is a pretty damn good team.  The Bills just lost to the Dolphins.  And although we shouldn't read too much into just one game, the Bills haven't looked all that great, despite being 6-3.  At least, not great enough to give up 5 1/2 points.  They may win, but if they won 28-24, would that surprise anyone?

Green Bay Packers -7 1/2 at New York Giants

I have no idea how to evaluate this game, because it looks like Jameis Winston might be starting if Jaxson Dart doesn't clear concussion protocol.  Even if he does, still who knows.  I'll just take the favorite and hope for the best.

Tennessee Titans +6 1/2 v. Houston Texans

I DO NOT WANT TO DO THIS.  But, with my record this year, I do not need to tempt the gambling gods.  I will not take a road favorite in an intra-divisional game.  Besides, maybe Houston spent its mojo in last week's massive comeback against the Jaguars!

Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

So this came down to simply just taking the points.  But, if I had to analyze, I would just look at the defenses.  Carolina is 17th against the rush, and Atlanta is 29th against the rush - advantage:  Rico Dowdle, who is third in the NFL in rushing behind Jonathan Taylor and James Cook.  Atlanta does have the number 1 defense against the pass, but Carolina is a horrible passing offense anyway (30th).  So, I'll take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +4 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

This is another case in which I am taking the points.  Cincinnati is coming off a bye week after its offense just had a phenomenal outing against the Chicago Bears defense behind Joe Flacco.  Pittsburgh has the worst defense in the league against the pass, and J'Marr Chase is second in receiving yards and the aforementioned Flacco has a 102.6 passer rating, with 11 TDs against on 2 INTs.

San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Damnit.  I hate take intra-divisional road favorites, but they do hit sometimes.  I'll take this one because it IS less than a field goal, and because Jacoby Brissett is starting for Arizona (which could be up-and-down).  But, with Marvin Harrison, Jr. out with his appendix (see what I did there?), his Brissett-led resurgence will not continue, so no level of Trey-McBrideness can defeat San Francisco alone, especially with the 20th ranked pass defense of Arizona defending the #1 passing offense in all of the NFL, which might - MIGHT - see the return of Ricky Pearsall! 

Seattle Seahawks +3 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Two very evenly matched teams on both sides of the ball, fighting for the top of the division.  I am doing nothing more than taking points in the game that I think should be the best game of the weekend!

Denver Broncos +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Another game that looks like a road intra-divisional favorite should win, as we keep waiting for Denver's offense to finally show up.  But, JK Dobbins' injury could hurt the Broncos, which may force them to open things up more in the passing game, which could play more to Bo Nix's strengths, and the myriad receivers they can run out against the Chiefs' defense.  Plus, I have another intra-divisional road favorite that I want to pick next.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Baltimore is cruising with a three-game win streak, while Browns fans are clamoring for Shadeur Sanders!  I wish this was 6 1/2 because of Cleveland's second rated total defense, but I still think Baltimore runs away with this one.

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I get Detroit's rejuvenated offense with Dan Campbell's play-calling AND points?!  I'll take it, especially since Detroit averages over a touchdown more a game than Philadelphia!

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

I do not want to watch this game.  I sure hope there are some good college basketball matchups.

Byes:  Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I get Detroit's rejuvenated offense with Dan Campbell's play-calling AND points?!  I'll take it, especially since Detroit averages over a touchdown more a game than Philadelphia!

A prolific offense getting points against a team with a lot of wins, but not a lot of points.

Last Week Record: 8-6

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 69-80

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-8

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,920) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 10

 

This isn't even fair at this point.  I mean, c'mon, JACOBY BRISSETT?  Really?!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Denver Broncos -8 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

This is more points than I want to give, but the home team on a short week is immeasurably more talented than the Raiders, especially on defense, and Las Vegas is coming off an overtime game to boot.

Atlanta Falcons +6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts (in Berlin)

Although the Falcons struggle against the rush (here you go Jonathan Taylor fans), they are overall pretty stout (3rd overall), so I will take the points in this one in what should be a close game.

Chicago Bears -4 1/2 v. New York Giants

None of us actually believe this, but the Bears offense is carrying this team.  They are 2nd in rushing offense, 4th in total offense, 6th in scoring offense, and 10th in passing offense.  And this Giants defense is barely better than Cincinnati's, and their offense is way worse.

Baltimore Ravens -4 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

I really don't know what to think about this game.  All I can honestly say is that I feel that Minnesota might suffer a letdown after last week's emotion victory over their divisional rivals - the Detroit Lions and Baltimore needs to put together a win streak to make the playoffs.  

New England Patriots +2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Statistically, New England scores more points than Tampa Bay, and they give up less points than Tampa Bay does.  And, since they are the road team here, they are getting points.  I'll take 'em.

Houston Texans +1 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Yes, I know CJ Stroud is out, but to be honest, he wasn't having that great of a year anyway, as the team is 19th in passing offense and 17th overall.  This pick is about taking the points at home in an intra divisional game, and Houston's defense (1st overall and in scoring, 4th against the pass nad 6th against the run).

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 at New York Jets

The Jets were absolutely decimated by the trade deadline, losing Quinnen Williams (no surprise) and Sauce Gardner (SURPRISE!) from a defense that was already 27th in scoring defense and 16th in total defense.  Cleveland is the beneficiary of those trades.  I am shocked Breece Hall is still there.  If Braelon Allen wasn't hurt, Hall might have been traded too!

Carolina Panthers -5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Speaking of surprises, how is Alvin Kamara still on the Saints?  Carolina, behind Offensive Player of the Year candidate Rico Dowdle, is in the playoff hunt!

Miami Dolphins +9 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

This is a lot of points for an intra-divisional home team to give up, so I will take them, despite the fact that Buffalo's offense is the best in the league, and Miami's is 27th.

Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Four reasons here:  (1) The Jacoby Brissett shine won't surprise Seattle like it did Dallas; (2) Seattle is going to want to play with it's new offensive playmaker - Rashid Shaheed - so expect a couple of big plays; (3) Shaheed's speed is going to open up things A LOT for JSN; and (4) short week for Arizona.

San Francisco 49ers +4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

I absolutely hate this pick, but I just don't like picking road intra-divisional favorites unless I absolutely have to do so.  Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle can probably score enough to keep this close, although I expect the Rams to win, maybe 27-24?

Detroit Lions -8 1/2 at Washington Commanders

The Lions are going to be angry after losing to the Minnesota Vikings last week and the Commanders are going to be angry that they have to start Marcus Mariota again!

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Although they sit in first place in the AFC North, Pittsburgh's numbers are brutal.  They are 30th in Total Offense AND Total Defense, and on top of that they are last in the league in pass defense, against Justin Herbert's 6th best passing offense.  The Chargers aren't shabby on the defensive side of the ball either, being 6th in Total Defense.

Green Bay Packers -1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Green Bay's defense is stout (5th against the run and 9th against the pass for 5th overall), and Philadelphia still looks like a paper tiger, at least until Saquon Barkley gets back on track.  And, with the way their respective divisions are playing, Green Bay just needs this more.

Byes:  Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Tennessee Titans

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Denver Broncos -8 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

This is more points than I want to give, but the home team on a short week is immeasurably more talented than the Raiders, especially on defense, and Las Vegas is coming off an overtime game to boot.

Brock Bowers' returns makes the Raiders offense a bit more lethal, but honestly, my big bet selections have been awful this year, so let's just get it out of the way early this week.

Last Week Record: 7-7

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 61-74

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-7

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($235)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,895)