Ich verstehe nur Bahnhof – It’s Draught Time Y’all!

It’s time again…

You remember that in 2013, the WeMakeItRain staff came up with the idea of a draft to determine the best episode of the ESPN 30 for 30 series. After some debate, we ranked early episodes of the series from best to "I didn't even care that happened" using a snake draft. In 2023, we decided to bring the draft back to determine the best episode of Chappelle’s show. Both drafts were ridiculous and angered loved ones, so we documented them here.

Continuing with the theme of big, irrelevant, time-consuming things that only make sense to a few people, the staff thought we should rank the greatest college sports traditions. Maybe our best idea. We drafted those last year and they are documented here.

So, what could we do next? Obviously, we needed to amp up the ridiculousness and obscurity to a whole other level!

Several weeks ago, Pepster and Sinickal were in Germany to support a family member running the Berlin Marathon. Overall, it was a fun trip that featured a lot of site-seeing, very good food, museum visits and, you guessed it, another draft! And since we were abroad, the decision to draft the greatest German athletes seemed like a no brainer.

That brings me back to the title of this post. Why “Ich verstehe nur Bahnhof” you ask? Well, the German phrase literally translates to “I only understand train station,” and is taken to generally mean “I am unable to understand what is being said.”

THIS explains Sinickal in this draft! Unable to understand most of what is going on. Sure, I did my research on as many Germans or people that I think might actually be German based on other circumstances in preparation, but Pepe arrived with a wealth of information about people I had never even heard of. In fact, I believe he made a few of them up.

Okay, maybe they all are real people. However, like me, I don’t believe that most of our audience will recognize many names in this list.

With that, on to the draft of the Best German Athletes!

The rules for the draft were simple. We flipped a coin to determine the first pick with a snake draft following for what we consider to be the top 40 German Athletes. The “athletes’ are broadly defined for a wide range of sports, but must be German or of German descent. Quite honestly, if you are unfamiliar with some of these, you should go look them up.

Sinickal won the coin toss for this draft and picked first. The results are presented in reverse order from 40th to 1st:

40.        Olaf Kolzig (Ice Hockey)

39.        Satou Sobali (Women’s Basketball)

38.        Maria Hofl-Riesch (Alpine Skiing)

37.        Martin Schmitt (Alpine Skiing)

36.        Franz Wagner    (Men’s Basketball)

35.        Miraslov Klose (Soccer)

34.        Philip Lahm (Soccer)

33.        Dennis Schroder (Men’s Basketball)

32.        Sebastian Vollmer (Football)

31.        Felix Loch (Luge)

30.        Fransceco Friedrich (Bobsled)

29.        Lothar Matthaus (Soccer)

28.        Sebastian Vettel (Formula One)

27.        Anna Freisinger (Speed Skating)

26.        Georg Hackl (Luge)

25.        Uwe Von Schamann (Football)

24.        Andre Lange (Bobsled)

23.        Maria Koch (Track and Field)

22.        Wolfgang Hoppe (Bobsled)

21.        Martin Kaymer (Golf)

20.        Magdalena Neuner (Biathlon)

19.        Manuel Meuer (Soccer)

18.        Birgit Fischler (Canoe)

17.        Gerd Muller (Soccer)

16.        Ernie Stautner (Football)

15.        Heike Drechsler (Track and Field)

14.        Natilie Geisenberger (Luge)

13.        Bernhard Langer (Golf)

12.        Jesse Owens (Track and Field)

11.        Isebel Werth (Equestrian)

Before we get to the Top 10, I should make a few comments on this draft. First, the 12^th pick by Sinickal should raise some eyebrows. Afterall, isn’t Jesse Owens American? Sure. But the pick of Isebel Werth at 11 by Pepster led to the conclusion that we were already thin in German athletes and Sinickal believes that in today’s culture, Hitler would have tried to claim credit for his 1936 Olympic performance.

Second, you might notice some trends in here with regard to how Pepster and Sinickal viewed the draft. Pepster’s draft prioritizes achievement in the chosen sport. As an example, we can re-visit Isebel Werth. Google her! She is as accomplished as anyone in this list despite the fact that Sinickal STILL may have never heard of her.

Sinickal’s draft prioritizes impact in more of the mainstream. Drafting someone like Uwe Von Schamann, a kicker with the Miami Dolphins is more about impact on high visibility sports followed full time by fans. I don’t think there is a “right” way to do a draft like this, and it really doesn’t matter anyway since it is our draft.

10. Jan Ullrich (Cycling) – Despite a complicated legacy, Jan Ullrich had an extremely accomplished cycling career highlighted by winning the 1997 Tour de France, the 1999 Vuelta a Espana, and gold and silver medals at the 2000 Olympics. Ullrich retired from cycling in 2007 after being banned from the Tour de France under speculation of doping. However, Jan made cycling a thing in Germany.

9. Detlef Schrempf (Basketball) – Born in Germany, but raised in the United States, Schrempf was a three-time NBA All-Star and two-time NBA Sixth Man of the Year. He played 16 years in the NBA for three teams, reaching the NBA finals with the Seattle SuperSonics. He also represented West Germany in the Olympics and was inducted into the FIBA Hall of Fame in 2021

8. Jurgen Klinsmann (Soccer) – Sinickal made this pick for his fame as the US National Team coach, but his career is quite impressive. He played in the 1990 FIFA World Cup with the German national team. He is the second German footballer to hold the record for the most goals in a World Cup. He made more than 200 appearances in Bundesliga with more than 100 goals. He went on to be the coach of the German national team in 2004. Then again in 2006, finishing third in the world cup. Pepster believes this was too high for him.

7. Claudia Pechstein (Speed Skating) – Sinickal’s reaction to Pepster’s pick was “WHO?” Yeah, this was the point in the draft when Sinickal realized he didn’t know if he could get to 40 picks. However, Google Claudia! Damn. Nine Olympic medals. Five gold, two silver, and two bronze, and she was the most successful Olympic speed skater, male or female, of all time until 2018. She is also the successful German winter Olympian of all time. Of course, she wouldn’t be a successful German without a doping scandal. She was banned from all competitions for two years after the 2009 World Championships.

6. Franz Beckenbauer (Soccer) - Widely considered Germany's greatest Futbol player, a World Cup winner as a player and coach, and a key player in winning the 1974 World Cup. Sinickal knew who this was and also had him in the top 10 on his draft board.

5. Michael Schumacher (Formula One) - Probably the right spot from both Sinickal and Pepster for this pick. Schumacher was ridiculous. He won a record-setting seven Formula One World Drivers' Championship titles, and—at the time of his retirement—held the records for most wins (91), pole positions (68), and podium finishes (155), while he maintains the record for most fastest laps (77). He was voted the most influential person in Formula One history in 2020, was the highest paid athlete in the world in 1999 and 2000, and was the first athlete billionaire in 2005.

4. Boris Becker (Tennis) - Pepe had him lower (“I had him 10”). Sinickal obviously disagreed. Why? Becker is considered one of the greatest tennis players of all time, winning 49 career singles and 15 doubles titles, including six singles majors: three Wimbledon Championships, two Australian Opens and one US Open. He won 13 Masters titles, an Olympic gold medal, and led Germany to two Davis Cup titles and is often credited as the pioneer of power tennis with his fast serve and all-court game.

3. Katarina Witt (Figure Skating) – A legend. Period. She won multiple Olympic and World Championships and dominated figure skating competitions for more than half a decade. Her dominance is attributed to her use of technical skills, and theatrical performance that captivated both the audience and the judges.

2. Dirk Nowitzki (Basketball) - One of the greatest European players ever, NBA MVP, NBA Champion and arguably the Dallas Mavericks greatest basketball player ever. The evolution of the Stretch 4 is him. Nikoli Jokic runs because Dirk Nowitzki first walked.

1. Steffi Graf (Tennis) – This was the number one choice for both Pepster and Sinickal. The real work in this draft started with Pick #2. She is among the greatest tennis players of all time, winning 22 Grand Slam titles and getting inducted into the International Tennis Hall of Fame. Steffi won her first junior tournament at the age of 6 and in 1988, was the youngest woman to 500 career wins, and became the third woman to win the grand slam. She also won Olympic Gold in 1988 to achieve what is referred to as the Golden Grand Slam. No questions who was Number 1 here.

So, there you have it. Another draft in the books and the staff at WeMakeItRain moves on to find another draft topic. Until then, look out for us in February when we live blog the Amtrak Series. We will explain that when we get there.

Picks of the Week - NFL - Week 13

 

Hey, I actually won my Big Bet last week!!!  But, still underwater.  I hate this year.  A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers +3 at Detroit Lions

Both squads are in a 3-way battle for conference supremacy (along with the Chicago Bears).  I am going to go with the Packers defense (3rd in Total Defense/4th in Scoring Defense/5th in Pass Defense/6th in Rush Defense) especially since they are getting points.  I cannot pick all 3 home teams on a short week, right?

Dallas Cowboys +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Fresh off a really ugly win over the Philadelphia Eagles, the Cowboys are getting points on a short week at home.  Kansas City had a great comeback over the Indianapolis Colts but are still in a life-or-death game every week in order to make the playoffs.  That is going to catch up to them eventually, and this number 3 offense is really clicking at this moment.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Once gain home team/short week.  The Bengals should get a boost from the return of Joe Burrow, but their one-demensionality on offense (30th in rushing), could be detrimental against a rapidly-improving Baltimore Ravens defense that although 22nd in the NFL, that is serious improvement over the last few weeks from when they were ranked dead last.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 v. Chicago Bears

The Bears have pulled a lot of rabbits out of their collective hats, and on paper actually look a bit better than Philadelphia, but there is no question the Eagles are a better team.  And, they are at home on Friday, I'll give the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars -6 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

I know I should pick Tennessee as a home intra-divisional dog, but they just don't warrant the pick  right now, not at under a touchdown.  Next-to-last in offense and 26th in defense, facing a Jacksonville team that suddenly finds itself only 1 game behind the division-leading Colts in the AFC South.

 

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at New York Jets

The J-E-T-S- Jets-Jets-Jets are awful.  Just awful.  

Los Angeles Rams -10 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Going to violate a gambling law no matter which way I pick, as Carolina is on a short week, but LA is traveling east and playing in the 1:00 window.  So, going against the double-digit favorite would be the next step, but I can't do that, as the Rams might be the best team in football, and the 49ers may have broken Carolina's spirit on Monday night by winning a game Carolina had every right to win.

Miami Dolphins -6 v. New Orleans Saints

Miami on a two-game winning streak; let's make it 3, and they cover.  Saints star Alvin Kamara is questionable for this week, and that could be a tremendous loss for a rookie quarterback.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

It is looking like the Buccaneers are getting Bucky Irving back; not so much for Trey Benson and Arizona.  Although the Cardinals have looked better with Jacoby Brissett at the helm.

Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Cleveland's defense is legitimate (3rd overall), and Shadeur Sanders does bring some swagger to the offense that the fourteen other starters didn't have this season.  Plus, San Francisco is playing in the Eastern Time Zone in the 1:00 window, AND on a short week.  Not to mention that they were basically handled by Carolina's defense, which isn't even close to as strong as Myles Garrett on his own.

Houston Texans +4 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

As great as Cleveland's defense is, they are not even close to the level of the Houston Texans.  The number 1 defense versus the number 2 offense.  The big difference is that Houston's offense is mediocre, whereas Indianapolis' defense gives up a lot of yards (24th).  This game is close, maybe a field goal either way.

Minnesota Vikings +11 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks absolutely win this game, as J.J. McCarthy has ... let's call it struggled.  But 11 1/2 is a lot of points.  A lot.  So, I'll take them.

Buffalo Bills -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Both teams in the playoff hunt, but the Bills have lost 2 out of 3 and 3 out of 6.  The Steelers have just looked - mediocre.  So long as Josh Allen doesn't turn the ball over, Bills win by 10.  But that is a big IF ...

Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Only 8 1/2?  Really?  And the Raiders might be without Ashton Jeanty.

Denver Broncos -6 at Washington Commanders

Denver should be fresher coming off of a bye.  And, playing against the 31st ranked defense in Total Defense that is also 29th against the pass (and 28th overall) might just be what Bo Nix needs to unlock Courtland Sutton, Evan Engram, Tony Franklin and the rest of the passing game.

New York Giants +7 1/2 at New England Patriots

The Patriots are better and will win, for sure.  But the Giants have played 4 straight relatively close games, and Jameis Winston is a national treasure.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Cleveland's defense is legitimate (3rd overall), and Shadeur Sanders does bring some swagger to the offense that the fourteen other starters didn't have this season.  Plus, San Francisco is playing in the Eastern Time Zone in the 1:00 window, AND on a short week.  Not to mention that they were basically handled by Carolina's defense, which isn't even close to as strong as Myles Garrett on his own.

Getting points at home, with all of the surrounding situation for the 49ers as mentioned above.  I am betting on defense. 

Last Week Record: 6-7-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 84-93-1

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 3-9

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($20)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,865) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 12

 

An actual winning week, but once again I am undone by the damn Big Bet, which I lost --- AGAIN!  I just cannot figure this season out.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Buffalo Bills -4 1/2 at Houston Texans

I am supposed to pick the home team on a short week, I know.  And Houston does have the best defense in the NFL.  But Buffalo scored 44 on a very good Tampa Bay defense last week, and I just cannot pick Davis Mills in a prime time game.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 1/2 at Chicago Bears -2 1/2

Both teams defenses give up A LOT of yards.  The Bears are 27th and the Steelers 28th in Total Defense.  The difference is the Bears are 4th in Total Offense, AND they are at home.  Now that is what I would have written if the Chicago Bears were not literally playing without ALL 3 starting linebackers!!!  All three.  Tremaine Edmunds, T.J. Edwards, and Noah Sewell.  And they are 27th in Total Defense WITH those guys.  Ugh.

Green Bay Packers -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay's defense is 5th in Total Defense and 7th in scoring defense, and J.J. McCarthy has proven himself to be very pedestrian with a 61.7 QB Rating.

Indianapolis Colts +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Although Kansas City needs to play desperate in this game just to have a chance at making the playoffs, and desperation and talent are a dangerous combination, Indianapolis is just a better team, especially offensively.  KC may win, but I am going to take the points, as the Colts score enough to cover - at least.

 

New England Patriots -6 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati has the worst defense in the NFL (last in Total Defense, last in rushing defense, last in scoring defense and 31st in passing defense).  That is just too much to overcome while J'Marr Chase is suspended and Joe Flacco - although efficient - is still aging.

Baltimore Ravens -13 1/2 v. New York Jets

This is a lot of points, but this is an unconventional year.  AND the J-E-T-S- Jets Jets Jets are B-A-D!

Detroit Lions -10 v. New York Giants

The Lions are going to be chomping at the bit after being stifled by the Eagles' defense last week after exploding against the Commanders.  I think this could be a three-score game.

Seattle Seahawks -13 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Honestly, I just took two double-digit favorites, why not take a third?  (Because that is stupid, but this year has been crazy ...).

Arizona Cardinals +3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

This pick is predicated solely on the return of Trey Benson, coupled with Jacksonville overestimating their decimation of the Los Angeles Chargers last week, and thus under-preparing for Arizona.  If no Benson, this pick is reversed.

Cleveland Browns +4 at Las Vegas Raiders

You mean I get points against the 30th ranked offense (Total and Scoring)?!  And, I get them when the other team (the Raiders) are on a short week?!  And I have the second-best Total Defense in the NFL?!  What's the catch?  Oh, Shadeur Sanders' first start ...  I'll take it!!! (Crying emoji!)

Dallas Cowboys +3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Getting points at home against an intra-divisional rival is always going to be my go-to play, even though it is a short week for the Cowboys.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Los Angeles Rams

This was a very tough game for me to pick.  It might feature the return of Buccaneers' starting running back Bucky Irving, and if it does, he would be well-rested for some reps/carries and alternate with Rachaad White and the surprisingly spry Sean Tucker to at least keep the Rams defense guessing.  Will that be enough to win?  Likely not, especially on the road.  But a 30-24 score with the Rams winning?  I can see that.

Carolina Panthers +7 at San Francisco 49ers

I am taking Carolina because of the points, and because Rico Dowdle is having a heckuva season running the ball (4th in the NFL), because San Francisco is still without Fred Warner, and nobody has figured out Carolina and how they are 6-5 this year.  So, since my first impression is that San Francisco should win easily, I am picking Carolina.

Byes:  Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins, Washington Commanders

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cleveland Browns +4 at Las Vegas Raiders

You mean I get points against the 30th ranked offense (Total and Scoring)?!  And, I get them when the other team (the Raiders) are on a short week?!  And I have the second-best Total Defense in the NFL?!  What's the catch?  Oh, Shadeur Sanders' first start ...  I'll take it!!! (Crying emoji!)

It seems like this year I am going to get this pick wrong anyway, might as well really go down behind Shadeur Sanders' first start!

Last Week Record: 9-6

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 78-86

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-9

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $75

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,845) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 11

 

Well, back on track with a winning week from a record standpoint, but my "Big Bet" has become the bane of my existence this year, falling to 2-8!!!  That is horrible.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots -12 1/2 v. New York Jets

Of course I am going to pick New England here, even though I do not like the 12 1/2 points.  Short week, so home team, and even though the Jets have a pretty good pass defense (8th overall), they are 26th in scoring defense, whereas the Patriots are 8th in scoring.  And now that they are finally starting to unleash Trayveon Henderson, I can see this being 31-14.

Miami Dolphins -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders in Berlin, Germany

Mike McDaniels just looks like the type of guy that would win this game and then go clubbin' in Berlin.  By the way, the Moxy Obstanhof's hotel bar is open 24 hours a day!!!  True story.  Oh yeah, and no Jayden Daniels.

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

I want to be soooo wrong here, but this Bears defense struggled at times against both Cincinnati and the New York Giants in the last two games - albeit both were wins.  Minnesota is a lot better than both of those teams.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Only, AND I DO MEAN ONLY, because this game is in the 1:00 time slot in Jacksonville.  I could make up some other reason, like Jacksonville is angry at themselves after last week's collapse against Houston, but even that doesn't make up for the talent difference between these two teams.  So, they only reason is getting points at home in the Eastern time zone in the 1:00 game against a Pacific time zone team.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Yes, Tampa Bay lost last week, but they lost to the Patriots which, it turns out, is a pretty damn good team.  The Bills just lost to the Dolphins.  And although we shouldn't read too much into just one game, the Bills haven't looked all that great, despite being 6-3.  At least, not great enough to give up 5 1/2 points.  They may win, but if they won 28-24, would that surprise anyone?

Green Bay Packers -7 1/2 at New York Giants

I have no idea how to evaluate this game, because it looks like Jameis Winston might be starting if Jaxson Dart doesn't clear concussion protocol.  Even if he does, still who knows.  I'll just take the favorite and hope for the best.

Tennessee Titans +6 1/2 v. Houston Texans

I DO NOT WANT TO DO THIS.  But, with my record this year, I do not need to tempt the gambling gods.  I will not take a road favorite in an intra-divisional game.  Besides, maybe Houston spent its mojo in last week's massive comeback against the Jaguars!

Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

So this came down to simply just taking the points.  But, if I had to analyze, I would just look at the defenses.  Carolina is 17th against the rush, and Atlanta is 29th against the rush - advantage:  Rico Dowdle, who is third in the NFL in rushing behind Jonathan Taylor and James Cook.  Atlanta does have the number 1 defense against the pass, but Carolina is a horrible passing offense anyway (30th).  So, I'll take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +4 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

This is another case in which I am taking the points.  Cincinnati is coming off a bye week after its offense just had a phenomenal outing against the Chicago Bears defense behind Joe Flacco.  Pittsburgh has the worst defense in the league against the pass, and J'Marr Chase is second in receiving yards and the aforementioned Flacco has a 102.6 passer rating, with 11 TDs against on 2 INTs.

San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Damnit.  I hate take intra-divisional road favorites, but they do hit sometimes.  I'll take this one because it IS less than a field goal, and because Jacoby Brissett is starting for Arizona (which could be up-and-down).  But, with Marvin Harrison, Jr. out with his appendix (see what I did there?), his Brissett-led resurgence will not continue, so no level of Trey-McBrideness can defeat San Francisco alone, especially with the 20th ranked pass defense of Arizona defending the #1 passing offense in all of the NFL, which might - MIGHT - see the return of Ricky Pearsall! 

Seattle Seahawks +3 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Two very evenly matched teams on both sides of the ball, fighting for the top of the division.  I am doing nothing more than taking points in the game that I think should be the best game of the weekend!

Denver Broncos +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Another game that looks like a road intra-divisional favorite should win, as we keep waiting for Denver's offense to finally show up.  But, JK Dobbins' injury could hurt the Broncos, which may force them to open things up more in the passing game, which could play more to Bo Nix's strengths, and the myriad receivers they can run out against the Chiefs' defense.  Plus, I have another intra-divisional road favorite that I want to pick next.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Baltimore is cruising with a three-game win streak, while Browns fans are clamoring for Shadeur Sanders!  I wish this was 6 1/2 because of Cleveland's second rated total defense, but I still think Baltimore runs away with this one.

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I get Detroit's rejuvenated offense with Dan Campbell's play-calling AND points?!  I'll take it, especially since Detroit averages over a touchdown more a game than Philadelphia!

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

I do not want to watch this game.  I sure hope there are some good college basketball matchups.

Byes:  Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I get Detroit's rejuvenated offense with Dan Campbell's play-calling AND points?!  I'll take it, especially since Detroit averages over a touchdown more a game than Philadelphia!

A prolific offense getting points against a team with a lot of wins, but not a lot of points.

Last Week Record: 8-6

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 69-80

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-8

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,920) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 10

 

This isn't even fair at this point.  I mean, c'mon, JACOBY BRISSETT?  Really?!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Denver Broncos -8 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

This is more points than I want to give, but the home team on a short week is immeasurably more talented than the Raiders, especially on defense, and Las Vegas is coming off an overtime game to boot.

Atlanta Falcons +6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts (in Berlin)

Although the Falcons struggle against the rush (here you go Jonathan Taylor fans), they are overall pretty stout (3rd overall), so I will take the points in this one in what should be a close game.

Chicago Bears -4 1/2 v. New York Giants

None of us actually believe this, but the Bears offense is carrying this team.  They are 2nd in rushing offense, 4th in total offense, 6th in scoring offense, and 10th in passing offense.  And this Giants defense is barely better than Cincinnati's, and their offense is way worse.

Baltimore Ravens -4 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

I really don't know what to think about this game.  All I can honestly say is that I feel that Minnesota might suffer a letdown after last week's emotion victory over their divisional rivals - the Detroit Lions and Baltimore needs to put together a win streak to make the playoffs.  

New England Patriots +2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Statistically, New England scores more points than Tampa Bay, and they give up less points than Tampa Bay does.  And, since they are the road team here, they are getting points.  I'll take 'em.

Houston Texans +1 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Yes, I know CJ Stroud is out, but to be honest, he wasn't having that great of a year anyway, as the team is 19th in passing offense and 17th overall.  This pick is about taking the points at home in an intra divisional game, and Houston's defense (1st overall and in scoring, 4th against the pass nad 6th against the run).

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 at New York Jets

The Jets were absolutely decimated by the trade deadline, losing Quinnen Williams (no surprise) and Sauce Gardner (SURPRISE!) from a defense that was already 27th in scoring defense and 16th in total defense.  Cleveland is the beneficiary of those trades.  I am shocked Breece Hall is still there.  If Braelon Allen wasn't hurt, Hall might have been traded too!

Carolina Panthers -5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Speaking of surprises, how is Alvin Kamara still on the Saints?  Carolina, behind Offensive Player of the Year candidate Rico Dowdle, is in the playoff hunt!

Miami Dolphins +9 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

This is a lot of points for an intra-divisional home team to give up, so I will take them, despite the fact that Buffalo's offense is the best in the league, and Miami's is 27th.

Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Four reasons here:  (1) The Jacoby Brissett shine won't surprise Seattle like it did Dallas; (2) Seattle is going to want to play with it's new offensive playmaker - Rashid Shaheed - so expect a couple of big plays; (3) Shaheed's speed is going to open up things A LOT for JSN; and (4) short week for Arizona.

San Francisco 49ers +4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

I absolutely hate this pick, but I just don't like picking road intra-divisional favorites unless I absolutely have to do so.  Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle can probably score enough to keep this close, although I expect the Rams to win, maybe 27-24?

Detroit Lions -8 1/2 at Washington Commanders

The Lions are going to be angry after losing to the Minnesota Vikings last week and the Commanders are going to be angry that they have to start Marcus Mariota again!

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Although they sit in first place in the AFC North, Pittsburgh's numbers are brutal.  They are 30th in Total Offense AND Total Defense, and on top of that they are last in the league in pass defense, against Justin Herbert's 6th best passing offense.  The Chargers aren't shabby on the defensive side of the ball either, being 6th in Total Defense.

Green Bay Packers -1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Green Bay's defense is stout (5th against the run and 9th against the pass for 5th overall), and Philadelphia still looks like a paper tiger, at least until Saquon Barkley gets back on track.  And, with the way their respective divisions are playing, Green Bay just needs this more.

Byes:  Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Tennessee Titans

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Denver Broncos -8 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

This is more points than I want to give, but the home team on a short week is immeasurably more talented than the Raiders, especially on defense, and Las Vegas is coming off an overtime game to boot.

Brock Bowers' returns makes the Raiders offense a bit more lethal, but honestly, my big bet selections have been awful this year, so let's just get it out of the way early this week.

Last Week Record: 7-7

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 61-74

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-7

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($235)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,895) 

NFL Mid-Season Review

6 

So the NFL has reached its mid-season.  Nine of the eighteen weeks are complete, and each team has played at least 8 games, and some 9, and 8 1/2 games is halfway through the season.  This is our analysis of the first quarter of the NFL season, with each team's surprise of the year.  The parenthetical at the end of season rankings was that team's position in the quarter-season review. 

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (7-2) This team was 5-0 during the second quarter of the season (and has won 6 games in a row to push to the top of the division.  Although I fully expect the Bills to end up here at the end of the year, New England is a strong contender for the playoffs,  The big surprise is that this team is 8th in scoring without a significant contribution from Trayveon Henderson, who, although the team's leading rusher with 283 yards, has only 13 more rushing yards than Drake Maye.

Buffalo Bills (6-2) A two-game losing streak - to New England and Atlanta - going into their bye dismantled what looked like an AFC juggernaut.  Their biggest surprise is that this team is middle-of-the-pack in passing offense (14th).  

Miami Dolphins (2-7) The Dolphins are 2-7 and sit in third place.  The biggest surprise is that they are not in last.

New York Jets (1-7)

Awful.  The biggest surprise is that they have not started trading veterans (Breece Hall, Quinnen Williams, Quincy Williams) yet.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)

Mike Tomlin must be that good of a coach (that we knew), but this is his best job yet.  That is because the surprise is that the Steelers are in first place while being ranked 30th in offense and defense.

Baltimore Ravens (3-5)

Is this the scariest 3-5 team in NFL history?  injuries hurt, but the biggest surprise is how poor this defense is (27th overall).

Cincinnati Bengals (3-6)

The Joe Burrow injury is devastating.  Surprise is that Joe Flacco is making this team exciting.

Cleveland Browns (2-6)

Among the worst teams in the league, even with the second-best defense in the NFL.  That should have accounted for 1 or 2 more wins.

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts (7-2)

They have played exceptionally well this year.  And are just a couple of Daniel Jones turnovers away from being 8-1.  Jonathan Taylor's success isn't a surprise, so his candidacy for MVP is understandable, but Daniel Jones being a top candidate?  Wow.

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3)

A 2-2 quarter has flattened out the Jaguars curve, but Jacksonville is currently in playoff position if the season ended today.  The biggest surprise?  A virtually non-existent Brian Thomas, Jr. who has 30 receptions, only 5 more than Parker Washington.

 

Houston Texans (3-5)

Still one of the most disappointing teams in the whole league.  Biggest surprise - Woody Marks.  Not that he is surprising with his play, but the surprise is that the Texans have had to resort to Woody Marks.

Tennessee Titans (1-8)

Well, the are no longer winless!  The surprise is Chimere Dike, who is developing into a solid wide receiver, and is already one of the best kick returners in the NFL.  He has almost 350 more yards in kickoff returns than the next highest returner, and has the highest per return average as a punt returner.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (7-2)

The Broncos went 5-0 in the second quarter, and are solidifying themselves as a Super Bowl candidate.  The surprise, they are doing this with only the 14th-best total offense in the NFL.  If this offense actually gets on track, watch out.

Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)

Oh what could've been with Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater.  The surprise is that they are the second-rated offense without those two bookends!

Kansas City Chiefs (5-4)

The surprise is that they are third in their division!!!

Las Vegas Raiders (2-6)

No surprise that they are bad, the surprise is that they are only giving the ball to Ashton Jeanty 15 times a game.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)

At the quarter mark, I noted the statistical fallacy of the Eagles being 4-0; and they went 2-2 the last quarter.   The biggest surprise?  That the Tush Push was ruled forward progress stopped instead of a fumble against the Giants.

Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1)

This defense is really bad, which limits the ceiling on this team, yet they still are buyers at the deadline acquiring Logan Wilson from Cincinnati.  Surprise!!!

Washington Commanders (3-6)

A little regression from last year was to be expected, but not this much!  The surprise is the second injury to Jayden Daniels!!!  Perhaps let the running backs run?!

New York Giants (2-7)

Not a good team, but not as bad as their record.  The surprise is the excitement for Jaxon Dart and Cam Skattebo!!!  (Who am I kidding, we knew the over-exaggerated excitement for Skattebo was coming!).

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NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers (5-2-1)

Went 3-1 the last quarter, but they haven't looked particularly sharp.  A surprise loss to the Panthers could be the difference between a division title and traveling on wildcard weekend.

Detroit Lions (5-3)

This team can look dominating, or disappointing.  I still think they are the class of the division.  Too much firepower.

Chicago Bears (5-3)

Could the Bears be making a run for the playoffs?  The surprise is that despite a lot of negative press coming from Bears fans, his numbers are virtually identical to those of Baker Mayfield, who some people have as an outside-MVP candidate.

Minnesota Vikings (4-4)

Their defeat of the Detroit Lions brings this division much closer from top-to-bottom.  The biggest surprise is even the Vikings don't know which JJ McCarthy will show up from quarter-to-quarter:  the one that plays essentially like a first-year starter, or the one that comes-from-behind in the fourth quarter.

NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2)

Tampa Bay is playing very consistently, and is 3-1 in each of the first two quarters.  The big surprise is that Richaad White is the leading rusher, despite not having a rusher with over 300 yards on the season.

Carolina Panthers (5-4)

The surprise is that Carolina is 5-4!!!

Atlanta Falcons (3-5)

The inverse of the Carolina Panthers, the surprise is that Atlanta is only 3-5even with the number 3 ranked defense!

New Orleans Saints (1-8)

The surprise is that Alvin Kamara is still on the Saints.

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks (6-2)

Playing very well.  This organization knows how to find QBs tossed away by other franchises (first Geno Smith, now Sam Darnold).  Jaxson Smith-Njigba leads the entire NFL in receiving yards.  Surprising that it looks smart to have traded DK Metcalf!

Los Angeles Rams (6-2)

Might actually be the best team in the division.  Surprising that Matt Stafford is an MVP front-runner!

San Francisco 49ers (6-3)

In playoff contention despite running through wide receivers like the Kardashians ... run through wide receivers!

Arizona Cardinals (3-5)

Surprised they haven't pulled the plug on the Kyler Murray Experiment yet.

POWER RANKINGS

1.  Indianapolis Colts (7-2) (8)

2.  Denver Broncos (7-2) (14)

3.  New England Patriots (7-2) (16)

4.  Buffalo Bills (6-2) (1)

5.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) (5)

6.  Seattle Seahawks (6-2) (9)

7.  Los Angeles Rams (6-2) (7)

8.  Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) (2)

9.  Green Bay Packers (5-2-1) (12)

10.  Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) (3)

11.  San Francisco 49ers (6-3) (6)

12.  Detroit Lions (5-3) (4)

13.  Chicago Bears (5-3) (18)

14.  Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) (10)

15.  Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) (11)

16.  Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) (13)

17.  Carolina Panthers (5-4) (29)

18.  Minnesota Vikings (4-4) (17)

19.  Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) (22)

20.  Baltimore Ravens (3-5) (23)

21.  Atlanta Falcons (3-5) (19)

22.  Houston Texans (3-5) (24)

23.  Arizona Cardinals (3-5) (20)

24.  Washington Commanders (3-6) (15)

25.  Cincinnati Bengals (3-6) (21)

26.  Cleveland Browns (2-6) (28)

27.  Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) (25)

28.  New York Giants (2-7) (26)

29.  Miami Dolphins (2-7) (27)

30.  New Orleans Saints (1-8) (31)

31.  New York Jets (1-8) (30)

32.  Tennessee Titans (1-8) (32)

Biggest Movers:  New England Patriots +13, Denver Broncos +12, Carolina Panthers, +12, Washington Commanders -9, Detroit Lions -8, Los Angeles Chargers -7

QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

Defensive MVP - Byron Young, Los Angeles Rams

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Jihaad Campbell, Philadelphia Eagles

Coach of the Year - Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 9

Well, last week was back to losing.  My only solace is that we are all collectively doing poorly this year.  And if you say you are not - you are lying!!!  I am in a picks confidence league where we pick games straight up - and GOD WAS LAST WEEK BRUTAL FOR EVERYBODY!!!  So I got that going for me - which ISN'T NICE!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Yes, I know that Miami is the home team on a short week, but Baltimore looked sharp last week - as did the Dolphins, to be fair (Cue:  "To Be Fair!" chorus from Letterkenny) - but Baltimore will have Lamar Jackson back, and the Dolphins, well won't.

Chicago Bears -2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Not sure that I like this pick very much, except the penalties against the Bears, especially the offense, have to come down at some point, right?  Joe Flacco is settling in well at QB - I mean who wouldn't with J'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins - but that defense is brutal (31st overall, 30th in passing defense, 32nd against the run and in scoring defense), so I have to pick a bounce-back game from the Bears.

 

Denver Broncos +1 1/2 at Houston Texans

Other than the records, these two teams are incredibly evenly matched, especially on defense where Houston has the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense AND scoring defense), and Denver is close behind (5th in scoring/6th in total defense).  So in cases like this, I will take the points in what should be a close game.

San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 at New York Giants

I ordinarily would hate selecting a west coast team playing in the 1:00 window on the east coast, especially one GIVING points, but two main factors here for me:  (1) San Francisco received a bit of a comeuppance last week losing to the Texans, so they should be fired up for this game (and Ricky Pearsall should be returning); and (2) The Giants entire fanbase - and the fandom of every white NFL fan in America - deflated last week with Cam Skattebo's injury.  

Indianapolis Colts -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Although this is technically a battle of two first-place teams, these are not the same caliber of teams.  Pittsburgh is in first place by virtue of injuries to Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow and the complete implosion of the Baltimore Ravens defense.  Indianapolis is in first place because of its NFL leading scoring offense - which just so happens to be incredibly balanced (6th in rushing and 6th in passing - 3rd in total offense).  Pittsburgh is 27th in total offense, which ranks better than its 30th ranked defense.  They do have a chance to show us something this week, but gimme Indianapolis and its two - yes TWO - MVP candidates - Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor.

Green Bay Packers -12 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

F' it.  Why not!

Detroit Lions -9 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Detroit looked like Detroit again last week, which is bad news for the Vikings, who might be hard-pressed to stop the second-highest scoring team in the league.

Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

I am picking against the Titans, likely for the rest of the year.  They need to get Cam Ward some serious playmakers, because he has actually looked good at times.  But they don't have those playmakers now.  The Chargers do, even with their injuries at running back.

New England Patriots -5 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Is it possible that Mike Vrabel just suffered from the curse of Jeff Fisher (8-8) in Tennessee and that he might actually be a really good coach?!

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

I am 100% sure that I do not like picking as many road favorites as I have already (this is 6), but I also know that nobody is sure what the Raiders are even doing.  They really should just trade Maxx Crosby.  the Jaguars themselves are really gambling with their treatment of Brian Thomas (see what I did there?), so I am interested in seeing how that unfolds.  I am sure Jacksonville is better, and Travis Hunter is getting more-and-more comfortable in his role(S!)

New Orleans Saints +14 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

I would love to say that my analysis of this game swings on my vast investigation and research into how much of a jolt a team gets by just simply starting a new quarterback with the hopes and optimism that this person could be their long-term answer (Tyler Shoough), but it really just is the two touchdowns plus.

Buffalo Bills +1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The eye test really answers this game in the opposite, as Kansas City has been playing much better than Buffalo lately, but Buffalo did hang 40 last week - albeit on Carolina - plus they are getting points and Kansas City is on a short week.  Let's go ..... Buffalo!

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Sam Darnold has been very steady leading the NFC West leading Seahawks' offense this year (109.2 rating, 8th in passing and 13th total offense), but this is more about how much the Commanders miss Jayden Daniels and the fact they are on a short week.

Dallas 66Cowboys -2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

I don't know how Arizona has 3 wins, and this time they have Jacoby Brissett starting.  Marvin Harrison, Jr. is going to end up wasting the majority of his younger years.

Byes:  Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

I don't know how Arizona has 3 wins, and this time they have Jacoby Brissett starting.  Marvin Harrison, Jr. is going to end up wasting the majority of his younger years.

I didn't really know what to do here:  Green Bay is giving up too many points, Denver, the Chargers and Indianapolis are all on the road.  So, I settled here.

Last Week Record: 5-8

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 54-67

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-6

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($545)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,660) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 8

 

Finally, a pretty good week.  A winning week in terms of percentage, and with the Big Bet being correct, in the positive!!!  Ordinarily that would be great, except I have already dug myself a really big hole for the year.  But, I would say that I am figuring this season out, but we all know that is not true.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Chargers are the second-best team in total offense (3rd in passing).  And since the defenses are relatively even - within an average of 12 yards per game, I will take the more prolific offense given that they are the home team on a short week.

Chicago Bears +6 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

It is possible that Lamar Jackson returns for Baltimore, but even if he does, he has only been limited in practice this week.  Will he be a bit rusty?  Also, he doesn't help the defense that is giving up 32.3 points per game - last in the NFL.  Chicago is 10th in scoring, and is the only team in the league that has scored at least 21 points in each of its games.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 1/2 v. New York Jets

The Jets are in disarray evidenced by Woody Johnson's comments this week about Justin Fields.  Is it possible that Breece Hall and Quinnen Williams are moved by the trade deadline?  I don't know but I guarantee there will be discussions.  The Joe Flacco reclamation train steams full-speed ahead, with the best receiving corps he has EVER had.

Buffalo Bills -7 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Carolina's defense is actually pretty stout (6th overall, 8th rushing defense and 10th passing defense), and Andy Dalton is a tried-and-true professional, but Buffalo is rested and coming off a bye-week and two-game losing streak, so I expect them to come roaring out against the Panthers.

San Francisco 49ers +1 1/2 at Houston Texans

This Texans' defense is absolutely terrifying, as it is 1st in scoring, 4th in total defense, 5th in passing defense, and 10th in rushing defense.  But Houston's offense is below average in everything, and is next to last in 3rd-down percentage.  Plus, who had Mac Jones leading the number 1 passing offense?!  Nobody, that's who.  I'll take the points with McCaffrey, especially with Houston playing on a short week.

New York Giants +7 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

With both teams well-into the bottom-half in scoring defense, and both teams in-or-near the middle in scoring, I will take over a touchdown.  Philly wins, but New York keeps it close.

Cleveland Browns +6 1/2 at New England Patriots

Ladies and Gentlemen:  Your first-place/division-leading New England Patriots.  I actually hate this pick, but for all of Cleveland's faults, they have the number 1 total defense in the NFL (3rd passing/4th rushing), so that alone could keep this game close.

Atlanta Falcons -7 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

How did Mike McDaniel survive last week's 31-7 shellacking at the hands of the Cleveland Browns?    They are 26th in total defense and 29th in total offense, going against the second-best defense in the NFL, with the 7th ranked total offense in Atlanta.  Which leads to a bigger question, how is Atlanta only 3-3?

New Orleans Saints +3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Let's be clear, I absolutely HATE this pick.  I really, really, really want to pick Tampa Bay here, because let's face it, Tampa is better!!!  But, Tampa Bay is on a short week, and a home dog in an intra-divisional game is always a smart choice.  Doesn't feel right here, but I will go with it and not try to overthink it, especially since defensively the team ranks are pretty similar.

Dallas Cowboys +3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Denver is giving points after an ultra-emotional unrealistic comeback win (33 points in the 4th quarter!!!) over the New York Giants.  There just HAS to be some type of letdown.

Indianapolis Colts -14 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

This is just ridiculous enough to happen!

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Yes Pittsburgh is in first in the AFC North, but I think that is more about Mike Tomlin than anything else, as the team was a bit exposed against the Bengals last week.  They do have some extra rest, but I expect Green Bay to win this by 10.

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

This pick seems really disrespectful to the Commanders, but the Chiefs have won all 4 of their games by over 13 points (4-1 in their last 5 after an 0-2 start), and the Commanders will be playing without starting quarterback Jayden Daniels.  I will roll the dice with two double-digit favorite picks.  Maybe one of them hits.

Byes:  Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Atlanta Falcons -7 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

How did Mike McDaniel survive last week's 31-7 shellacking at the hands of the Cleveland Browns?    They are 26th in total defense and 29th in total offense, going against the second-best defense in the NFL, with the 7th ranked total offense in Atlanta.  Which leads to a bigger question, how is Atlanta only 3-3?

This is a lot of points to give-up for a Big Bet, but I really do think the Dolphins have given up.  Plus, my other thoughts are all on the road (Green Bay, Cleveland, and Dallas).

Last Week Record: 9-6

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 49-59

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-5

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  $390

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,115) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 7

 

In short, I have no idea what is going on this year, and neither do you!  That is all.  That is the preamble for this week.  I got nothing!  I will say that I am just going to stick to the betting rules and see what happens for a couple of weeks.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals +5 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Yeah, this will be fun.  Taking the team with the worst offense and the second to worst defense in Cincinnati.  Literally 32nd in total offense and 31st in total defense.  But then again, Pittsburgh is 30th in offense and 27th in defense.  So, maybe this isn't awful taking a home underdog in an intra-divisional game and the home team on a short week - especially since it is the same team.  Go Joe Flacco, I guess?

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams (in London)

There are a whole lot of Londoners that probably believe Blake Bortles should be in the Hall of Fame, as the Jaguars always play great in their adopted home city.  Matthew Stafford is playing great this year - top 3 in the MVP right now for me - but both teams score about the same amount of points (23.3 for Rams and 23.2 for Jacksonville), so I will take the points.  Also note, underdogs have done really well overseas this year, not just against the spread.

New Orleans Saints +4 1/2 at Chicago Bears

Hey, they Bears have won 2 consecutive games 25-24, so they have the ability to keep the games close.  And, both of those were on the road.  But, they are on a short week and Spencer Rattler is showing some signs of life as a starting NFL quarterback.  Bears win, but maybe this time 24-20?

New England Patriots -7 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

This game feels like it should be 6 1/2 points, especially since we have no earthly idea how the Titans are going to react to the Brian Callahan firing.  This could actually fire up the players.  But, the Patriots are in first place in the division, and they have to feel good about their chances to make the playoffs given the state of the AFC North.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

This pick is all about defense:  Miami's is 30th in Total Defense (20th in Pass Defense; 32nd in Rush Defense; and 29th in Scoring Defense), whereas Cleveland's is 2nd in Total Defense (7th in Pass Defense; 3rd in Rush Defense and 21st in Scoring Defense).  Loser of this game loses its coach!

Carolina Panthers -1 1/2 at New York Jets

Carolina is 3-3 and on a 2-game winning streak.  The Jets are winless.  Carolina is doing this with defense (7th in Total Defense and 9th against the rush), which could help against the lone bright spot for the Jets - its 5th-ranked rushing offense.

Minnesota Vikings +1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I like Minnesota a lot better with Carson Wentz than with J.J. McCarthy, especially behind the 6th ranked defense (5th in scoring).  Philadelphia is a good team, but nowhere near as good as their reputation as the defending champion.

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs are rounding into form.  A double-digit favorite against a division rival form, probably not, but what the hell.

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. New York Giants

Once again, it is defense as Denver is 4th in Total Defense, 6th in Rushing Defense, 4th in Passing Defense, and 2nd in Scoring Defense.  Nick Bonitto for MVP!

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

I'll admit it; I am late to the Indianapolis Colts train, and I still might not be there.  And, I am a big fan of the Chargers' potential this year.  BUT, the Colts are a ridiculously balanced offensive team (5th in passing yards and 6th in rushing yards), and score the most points in the league.  And, although the defense isn't great, it is the 4th stingiest to score upon, even if they do give up yards.  So, the I will take the fact that they are getting points here.

Dallas Cowboys +1 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Listen, I DO NOT LIKE THIS BET.  But, the Commanders are on a short week and the Cowboys are at home getting points to an intra-divisional opponent.  I'll take them.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

After starting off 2-0 (against the Saints and Panthers mind you) the Cardinals are on a 4-game losing streak.  I expect that to continue as this Cardinals team is not good.  The Packers didn't look great last week, but they won handily, and I expect them to do the same here.

San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

The injury to Fred Warner hurts this squad - literally and figuratively - but I expect San Francisco to rally just like they have all year in replacing almost everybody to injury at some point already.  Plus, Atlanta is on a short week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 1/2 at Detroit Lions

First off, this is way too many points the way the Buccaneers have been playing.  This should be about a 2 1/2 point line.  So, I will take the extra 3 points.  And, Tampa's offense is humming behind Baker Mayfield (7th in passing and 6th in scoring.  And, the 5th-rated rush defense could potentially hold Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in check.  I expect this game to be fun to watch, and close.  When it's close, I will gladly take points.

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans

If it wasn't for Houston's defense, they would not have two wins at all.  They are 1st in Scoring Defense, 3rd in Total Defense, 5th in Passing Defense and 7th in Rushing Defense.  Seattle itself is 6th in Scoring Defense so this should be low scoring, and that usually means take the points.  But Seattle just finds it easier to score than Houston does this year, and I think the Seahawks will win at home pretty handily.

Byes:  Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans

If it wasn't for Houston's defense, they would not have two wins at all.  They are 1st in Scoring Defense, 3rd in Total Defense, 5th in Passing Defense and 7th in Rushing Defense.  Seattle itself is 6th in Scoring Defense so this should be low scoring, and that usually means take the points.  But Seattle just finds it easier to score than Houston does this year, and I think the Seahawks will win at home pretty handily.

I am doing it.  Seattle at home on Monday night.  Crowd should be electric.  I'll take it.

Last Week Record:  5-10

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  40-53

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-5

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($765)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($2,505)