Thanksgiving Picks of the Week

Happy Thanksgiving, and welcome to the "picks of the week". A quick refresher: Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +6 v. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay's defense has not looked that great, and Detroit's offense has a lot of firepower. Stafford is a different quarterback at home. I am not saying that the Lions beat the Packers, but they definitely score enough to keep it within a touchdown.

Dallas Cowboys -7 v. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have looked really good the past 3 or 4 weeks, and they have not given up a touchdown in what seems like forever. That stops today. Cowboys smell the opening to win the division, and I expect them to take a big bite toward that title today.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
Very short week and travel from west coast to east coast will be detrimental to the 49ers. Yeah, I know I know they have won every east coast game this year, but the Ravens are not the Redskins. Plus, Torrey Smith has brought an additional dimension to the Ravens offense.

Chicago Bears +4 at Oakland Raiders
I have bet the Raiders more times than most this year, but I think this Bears team is really gelling on defense. If Hanie can get a good full week of practice in before the game, and if he continues to show the strengths he brought to the second half of the NFC Championship game, then the Bears should be all right. Plus, they have the non-Aaron Rodgers MVP of the league in Matt Forte.

Tennessee Titans -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have been a big disappointment for a lot of people this year. Although they still have some good, young talent, the Titans are a really tough team. Johnson might be rounding into form, and whether Hasselback can play or not, Jake Locker looks like he can play.

St. Louis Rams No Line v. Arizona Cardinals
I think that you are starting at QB for Arizona this week.

New York Jets -9 v. Buffalo Bills
The loss of Fred Jackson cannot be overestimated. The fact that the Bills were on a downward spiral with Jackson doesn't help either. The only reason this isn't a 15 or 17 point spread is because the Bills have the better quarterback.

Houston Texans -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
I have no idea what we are going to get in Matt Leinart, and nobody else does either. Not even the Texans. Especially not the Texans. However, the Jaguars know exactly what they are getting in Blaine Gabbert.

Carolina Panthers -3 at Indianapolis Colts
Boy are the Colts bad without Peyton.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Andy Dalton is making a run at NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Browns are in complete disarray.

Atlanta Falcons -9 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota's offense is reeling, and the Falcons seem to be out of the funk they were in at the beginning of the season.

Washington Redskins + 3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
I am still not picking Seattle.

San Diego Chargers -6 v. Denver Broncos
The Chargers have not been very good and they turn the ball over, but that's OK because this Broncos offense cannot move the ball effectively. If Rivers doesn't throw interceptions, the Chargers are due for a win.

New England Patriots -4 at Philadelphia Eagles
So the league has figured out that the way to stop Welker is to play him man-to-man, but the Pats have Gronkowski and Hernandez. The Eagles don't even know if they will have Vick, although I suspect they will. I expect a shootout, with the Pats winning by a touchdown.

New Orleans Saints -7 v. New York Giants
The Saints offense was hitting on all cylinders just prior to the bye week. I think the week off will do nothing but refresh them. The Giants have been Jekyll and Hyde this year, but I think the Saints score enough anyway.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh Steelers -10 1/2 at Kansas City
I hate to make a double digit spread my "Big Bet of the Week", but then again, have you seen Kansas City play? Mike Wallace has emerged as one of the best receivers in the league, Mendenhall is a solid running back, and they still have that Steeler defense (although not as Steel as in the past).

Previous Week's Record: 6-6-2
Year to Date: 66-60-5
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 9-0
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $90
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $1350