Another subpar week, but still up on the year, so that is a good thing. This is a ridiculously tough week given all of the Covid 19 dianosis and re-schedulings that have occurred, and really should occur, who knows what is going to happen. Honestly, I am taking SARS-CoV-2 giving 19. For those of you keeping score, that is Covid -19. The big bet has gotten my 4 weeks in a row, after starting 7-0. This has to turn around if I am going to finish in the money.
As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid. I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Houston Texans -3 at Detroit Lions
DeShaun Watson is quietly having his best season of his career, and coming off an absolute gem last week in defeating New England. Detroit is a dumpster fire, with Mina Kimes already tweeting "Is Matt Stafford tall enough for John Elway". And, this loss led to Detroit's firing of Head Coach Matt Patricia and the GM.
Washington Football Team +3 at Dallas Cowboys
I hate picking the road team in short weeks, and here I am picking two on Thanksgiving Day. And, Dallas is even coming off a good performance last week against Minnesota Vikings. However, I feel that performance is an anomaly, and the Cowboys are in the midst of a week in which they saw their strength and conditioning coach Markus Paul - a Chicago Bear - die at practice. Must be emotional for them, but emotion is often hard to channel into performance.
Atlanta Falcons +3 v. Las Vegas Raiders
My third selection, why not going against the gambling rules again? Well, because they are rules for a reason, and they pay off more often than not. And, being a road favorite west coast team playing at the 1:00 time slot seems just way too many rules for me not to take the points. I get that the Raiders are better, but their best attribute is running the football - but that is only 7th in the NFL. And, their passing defense is 28th in the NFL going against the 2nd best passing offense in the league. Maybe the Raiders win, but they don't cover.
Buffalo Bills -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are 2-3 in their last 5, but those two wins come against the Jets and the Jaguars, who are vying for the 1st overall pick in next year's NFL draft. Chargers have talent, for sure, but travelling west to play an early game against teh AFC East leading Buffalo Bills and their 4th rated passing offense is going to be too much.
New York Giants -6 at Cincinnati Bengals
Brandon Allen is staring in place of Joe Burrow.
Tennessee Titans +3 at Indianapolis Colts
The 5th best rushing offense (Tennessee - and the NFL's leading rusher in Derrick Henry) against the 3rd best rushing defense (Indianapolis). This is going to be one tough, physical battle. In those situations, I take the points. Could this end 24-23 (in either direction?)
Cleveland Browns -7 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Mike Glennon is starting for Jacksonville. This is my 4th road favorite already, but I cannot help it with the likes of Brandon Allen and Mike Glennon starting.
Minnesota Vikings -3 v. Carolina Panthers
Minnesota has to rebound from last week's loss to the Dallas Cowboys, right? Plus, Carolina has a middling rush defense (18th in the NFL) to try to stop the league's second-leading rusher, Dalvin Cook. I don't think they do, but this was a tough game for me to decide.
New England Patriots +1 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is a west coast team travelling east and playing in the early game. And, after beating Baltimore two weeks ago, the Patriots lost to a Houston team (on the road), that just recently decimated the Detroit Lions (yes, it is Detroit, but still). I don't think this will be a pretty game, so I will take points at home.
Miami Dolphins -7 at New York Jets
Why would I take a fifth road favorite? Well, because the Dolphins already beat the Jets 24-0 just a few weeks ago, Ryan Fitzpatrick coming off a benching is practically invincible, and the Jets must be actively playing for the first overall pick. The thing that scares me here is that Sam Darnold - who is getting the start at QB for the Jets - is playing a showcase game for whichever team wants to trade for him for next season.
New Orleans Saints -6 1/2 at Denver Broncos
I honestly do not expect this game to occur. Quarterback Jeff Driskel's positive Covid-19 test and the resulting contact tracing now makes quarterbacks Drew Lock, Brett Rypien and Blake Bortles ineligible to play this week. I know, I know. You didn't realize Blake Bortles was still in the league either. So, the Broncos will have to go with Royce Freeman, their usual emergency quarterback), or practice squad receiver Kendall Hilton, who played some quarterback at Wake Forest. I expect this game to be a massacre.
Los Angeles Rams -7 v. San Francisco 49ers
The Rams are starting to really click with wins over Seattle and Tampa Bay after the crazy loss at Miami in Tuanigamanualepola Tagavailoa's debut start. San Francisco, which earlier defeated the Rams, are a shell of their former selves with basically nobody left healthy from their opening day roster. And, they just received news that Santa Clara, the actual municipality where they play their home games, has put a 21 day Covid-19 moratorium on any contact sports being played in the city limits - and the 49ers are supposed to have two home games during this period.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
I did not want to pick Tampa Bay here, honestly, but I did not want to select a seventh road favorite. And, even when winning recently, the Chiefs have played some close games, and haven't looked like they are completely clicking. So, I'll take more than a field goal at home.
Chicago Bears +9 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Mitchell Trubisky is back, cue fake hoorays!!! Honestly, Green Bay is going to win this game, but given that Trubisky is good at comebacks in the 4th quarter, he scores a late touchdown to lose by 8.
Seattle Seahawks -5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
The Seahawks defense is actually improving, giving up only 21 to Arizona last week and 16 to the Rams the week prior. Philadelphia is horrible. So, great. a 7th road favorite!!!
Pittsburgh Steelers (No Line Yet) v. Baltimore Ravens
Playing on Tuesday, after being moved from Sunday, after being moved from Thanksgiving prime time due to Covid. Once the Steelers complained that this is the second time they have had games moved (including losing a bye week) due to the other team's Covid issues, they had at least 2 players (Stephon Tuitt and James Conner) test positive. Not sure who is going to be playing or what the line is going to be. I assume that I am taking the Steelers as Lamar Jackson won't be playing. I will make my official selection once the line is made.
Bye Week - Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers
Big Bet
New Orleans Saints -6 1/2 at Denver Broncos
I honestly do not expect this game to occur. Quarterback Jeff Driskel's positive Covid-19 test and the resulting contact tracing now makes quarterbacks Drew Lock, Brett Rypien and Blake Bortles ineligible to play this week. I know, I know. You didn't realize Blake Bortles was still in the league either. So, the Broncos will have to go with Royce Freeman, their usual emergency quarterback), or practice squad receiver Kendall Hilton, who played some quarterback at Wake Forest. I expect this game to be a massacre.
I hate picking road teams as my big bet, especially when giving points, but this is a unique situations. My primary concern would be a letdown by the Saints. But seriously, though, look at this quarterback room ... Drew Lock, Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien and Blake Bortles. And you are telling me that Colin Kaepernick couldn't play quarterback in the NFL today?! Seriously?!
If, and only if, the New Orleans at Denver game is canceled, I select the following as my Big Bet, and I am by no means happy about is.
Cleveland Browns -7 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Mike Glennon is starting for Jacksonville. This is my 4th road favorite already, but I cannot help it with the likes of Brandon Allen and Mike Glennon starting.
I am not happy because I was selecting between three 7 point favorites, only 1 of which was at home. But, given that this isn't a divisional rivalry and that it involves Brandon Allen and/or Ryan Finley, I will take this game as my backup Big Bet.
Last Week's Record: 6-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1Year-to-Date Record: 84-73-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 7-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $760
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