Picks of the Week

PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!!

What a week last week.  11-1, and the 1 is only because Houston scored a couple of touchdowns to hit the over.  I will take a lot of weeks like that one.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler, except on the money line bet.

No roundtable discussion this week, but Hopps has some interesting perspectives on today's games.

"The winners will be the Steelers and the Falcons.  Well, ... and really, really rich old white guys."

And, since Donald Trump is a supporter of the Patriots owner, coach and quarterback, and since Donald Trump has now succeeded Barack Obama as President of the United States the following quip is now actually true, "Orange IS the new black".

Onto the picks ...

Green Bay Packers +6 at Atlanta Falcons
Obviously Atlanta's defense is markedly better than last year, but do you really think that they are going to be able to shut down Aaron Rodgers to the point where they win by more than a touchdown.  I think this is going to be a close, high scoring game.  Green Bay has won 8 in a row, and Atlanta has won 5 in a row, so both teams come into this game clicking.  Should be a great game for viewers, especially those that like lots of passing.

Atlanta Falcons -215 v. Green Bay Packers (Bet $215 to win $100)
Green Bay has won 8 in a row, but what are the chances they win 9?  Atlanta has quietly been the best team in the NFC all season, despite the hype given to Dallas because of the Cowboys' record.  They can pass, they can run, and they can rush the passer.  I look for them to make the Super Bowl, and leave Eugene Robinson at home.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (60) OVER
Who doesn't think this could end 41-37, or 37-31?  If both teams hit their averages in points scores, this over wins.  Plus, both quarterbacks throw for 300+ yards.

Pittsburgh Steelers +6 at New England Patriots
This game should also be close, as Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown should all have big games.  Brady and Blount are no slouches themselves, and may even win this game, but I don't think they will cover.  Pittsburgh's defense is 12th in total yards, and 10th in points, which should keep them close.

New England Patriots -240 v. Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $240 to win $100)
As close as Pittsburgh should keep this game, Tom Brady still finds a way to pull this one out.  The Patriots under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are 9-2 against Pittsburgh, and they should continue that today.

Pittsburgh Steelers at at New England Patriots (49 1/2) OVER
Roethlisberger and Brady both throw for over 300 yards and have multiple touchdown passes each..

Last Week's Record:  11-1
Year-to-Date Record:  148-129-5
Playoff Record:  16-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $1095
Playoff Winnings: (Losses): $875
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($685)

Picks of the Week

PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!!

Just under .500 last week, but I knew that was going to happen.  I took the Dolphins because of the money line even though I new the Steelers were going to win.  The money line bet was just too tempting.  I don't think I completely mis-read Seattle as they did not look that great, but Detroit was just worse.  Anyway, 5-7 should be easy to bounce back from.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler, except on the money line bet.

Atlanta Falcons -5 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Here I go gain, underestimating the Seahawks, but we have a basis for this.  Earlier in the season, Seattle beat Atlanta by 2 at home coming off a bye in a week in which Atlanta had to travel to Denver and Seattle back-to-back.  And Seattle had Earl Thomas then.  Ryan still threw for 335 yards and 3 touchdowns.  This week, Atlanta has the bye and is at home.  I'll take Atlanta to win by 10.

Atlanta Falcons -240 v. Seattle Seahawks (Bet $240 to win $100)
If I think that Atlanta is going to win by 10, I better take the money line, and -240 is not that outrageous of a risk.  Atlanta has a defense this year - or at least a pass rush.  They should advance to the NFC Championship Game.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (52 1/2) OVER
Super enticing number to go either way, but earlier this year the teams scored exactly 50.  Earl Thomas' loss means more points for Atlanta, so I'll take the over.

New England Patriots -15 1/2 v. Houston Texans
New England won earlier this year 27-0 without Tom Brady.  Of the 5 largest postseason spreads, the favorite covered in 4 of them, with the exception being Super Bowl III.

New England Patriots -1400 v. Houston Texans (Bet $1400 to win $100)
A ridiculous money line, which is at -2000 at the Wynn, but the Texans are not a real playoff team.  Even a +1000 for Houston is not enough to get me to pick them.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (44 1/2) UNDER
I am not sure that Houston will score more than 7 in this game.

Green Bay Packers +4 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay has won 6 in a row since week 11 loss to the Washington Racists, and no quarterback is playing as well as Aaron Rodgers.  Even if the Cowboys win, it will be close.  I'll take the points.

Green Bay Packers +200 at Dallas Cowboys (Bet $100 to win $200)
Dallas's rookies are still rookies, and Aaron Rodgers is not.  The Packers actually have a semblance of a running game to at least pretend they are balanced, and Davante Adams has been one of the best receivers all year.  I will take the Packers to win this outright.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (51 1/2) OVER
31-27 gets me to this over, and I think that could happen very easily.

Pittsburgh Steelers + 1 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City has had a nice season, bolstered by Denver's Super Bowl hangover and a Derek Carr injury, though.  Do we really trust the Chiefs in a big spot?

Pittsburgh Steelers +105 at Kansas Cit (Bet $100 to win $105)
A really, really close game.  In fact at a couple of casinos the money line is minus for both teams.  If I am taking Pittsburgh getting only 1 1/2, I think they will win outright.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (45) UNDER
Lots of ball possession offense and the scoring drives will be long (unless Tyreek Hill breaks a return).  That means few points.  I'll take the under.


Last Week's Record:  5-7
Year-to-Date Record:  137-128-5
Playoff Record:  5-7
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($220)
Playoff Winnings: (Losses): ($220)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,780)

NFL Playoffs - Divisional Roundtable

Pepster: Well, we all survived the horrific wild card round of the playoffs, and it looks like at least some of these games could be competitive, hard-fought playoff games.

Sinickal:  Except the one in New England.

Pepster:  You are truly living up to your name.  Now, what you say is true, but it is truly cynical.

Sinickal: No doubt.

Hopps:  Yup.  And since we are already on the topic, let's just discuss this game first.  It's Foxboro, and they are the Pats.

Sinickal:  New England ran all over Houston in Week 3 of the season, with Jacoby Brissett at the helm.  JACOBY BRISSETT.

Pepster:  Now don't knock my boy Brissett.  He is a hometown boy (at least for me).  Now that being said, Houston was obliterated by a third-string quarterback.  New England.

Sinickal:  I am not even wasting my breath picking.

Hopps:  Yup.

Pepster:  That makes it unanimous.  Let's go to today's first game, Seattle at Atlanta.

Hopps:  Atlanta should have beaten Seattle in Seattle.

Pepster: Very true.  Seattle won that game 26-24, at home and coming off a bye, whereas Atlanta had traveled to Denver the week before, and then came back to Seattle.  Everything favored Seattle in that game.  And now Atlanta gets to host.

Sinickal:  That should be all the difference.  We know how much of a home field advantage Atlanta has.

Hopps:  *Does a spit-take*

Pepster:  True cynical form Sinickal.

Sinickal:  Maybe, but it's true.  Look, I lived there for a while, blocks from the stadium.  Atlanta might have the worst fan support in all of sports - except Miami.

Pepster:  Hey.  That's my home ... OK.  You're right.

Sinickal:  Until Atlanta proves it to me that they can handle this type of pressure, I cannot pick them.  Seattle, although more flawed that in the past few years, has done it when it counts.  And Russell Wilson is as cool under pressure as they come.  I'll take Seattle on the road.

Hopps:  Atlanta.

Pepster:  Matt Ryan threw for 335 yards and Julio Jones had 7 receptions for 139 yards in the earlier game, and now Earl Thomas is out.  I think Vic Beasley has meant a world of improvement for this defense, and Atlanta wins.  Any last thoughts on this game?

Sinickal:  Just a shout to all my old neighborhood peeps that will be watching the game at the Elliott Street Pub!

Pepster:  Seems like as good a time to transition to tomorrow's games, where Pittsburgh at Kansas City has been moved to the evening because of an ice storm.  Let's start there.

Hopps:  Mother nature wins again.

Sinickal:  But that weather is football weather!!!  That should be a great game to close out the divisional round.  Kansas City plays tough, Pittsburgh is Pittsburgh (led by my man crush Mike Tomlin).  Looking forward to this one.

Pepster:  It should be a tough, physical game.  And that is just from assistant coach Joey Porter, who will be on the sidelines.

Hopps:  Too much Killer B's.

Pepster:  You mean the Dolphins defense from the early 1980's?

Hopps:  No, you dope.  Ben, Bell and Brown.

Pepster:  Ah, I thought you mean the 1982 Dolphins defense, with starters Bob Baumhower, Bill Barnett, Lyle Blackwood, Glenn Blackwood, Kim Bokamper, Charles Bowser, Doug Betters and Bob Brudzinski.

Sinickal:  F'in nerd!

Pepster:  We established that last week.

Sinickal:  You established that decades ago.

Hopps:  *Does spit-take*

Pepster:  So, Hopps has Pittsburgh.  Sinickal, I assume you do as well.

Sinickal:  Yes.  My man Tomlin.

Pepster:  If the weather affects the passing game, that hurts Pittsburgh more, as they rely much more on Ben and Brown that Kansas City does on anyone in their passing game.  But, Pittsburgh's running game is stellar, and reliable.  Unlike Kansas City's, where most people can't even name their running backs.  I'll go Pittsburgh.

Hopps;  Get to the Cowboys.  Get to the Cowboys.

Pepster:  Ok, Hopps, Green Bay at Dallas.

Hopps:  DALLAS!

Sinickal:  That figures.  Hopps picks his favorite team.

Hopps:  At least I CAN pick my favorite team.  Where are your Bears.

Pepster: Just waiting for DeShaun Watson to suit up!

Hopps:  Yeah, well we have Dak Prescott, and Zeke.  The rookies will have the day.

Sinickal:  You know what the rookies won't do?  Stop Aaron Rodgers.  That dude is on fire.

Pepster:  Glad you said it, because I can't say his name.  But, even with Jordy Nelson out, Davante Adams has really been the best receiver this year for the Packers anyway.  And, as touchdowns are falling from the sky, we get to yell, "Geronimo".

Sinickal:  Ezekial Elliott is a monster, and if Dallas can find some way to carve up the already porous Packer secondary, this game could become a super high scoring shootout.  That would favor Rodgers, no?

Hopps:  Cowboys!

Sinickal:  That doesn't answer my question.

Hopps:  I don't care - Cowboys!

Sinickal and Pepster:  Just for  your insolence, Packers.

Pepster:  There you have it.  Unanimous for New England and Pittsburgh.  2 for Atlanta (Pepster and Hopps) and 2 for Green Bay (Pepster and Sinickal).  Last week's records:

Sinickal:  4-0
Pepster:  3-1
Hopps:  3-1

Picks of the Week

PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!!

A time to re-set the mindset from the season (even though I finished with three straight winning weeks (percentage-wise, lost a small amount last week).  Let's just dive right in.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
There is no question that the Raiders are the much better team, except for say, they have to start their third-string rookie quarterback for the first time in the playoffs on the road against the NFL's number 1 ranked defense.

Houston Texans -150 v. Oakland Raiders (Bet $150 to win $100)
I think that it goes without saying that if I am going to pick the Texans to win by more than a field goal, that they would win the game outright.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (37 1/2) UNDER
Brock Osweiler hosting Conner Cook.

Detroit Lions +8 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle's defense has been less than stellar since Earl Thomas has went down, and they struggled to defeat the lowly San Francisco 49ers in week 17 after losing to the Arizona Cardinals at home the previous week.  Matthew Stafford has had a helluva season (more yards, more touchdowns and less interceptions than Russel Wilson).  Since the retirement of Calvin Johnson Stafford has been forced to spread the ball around.  He will miss Theo Riddick as a running back, hell, he will miss a running game, but look for Eric Ebron to make a big play or three with Earl Thomas not in the game.

Detroit Lions +325 at Seattle Seahawks (Bet $100 to win $325)
This isn't the same Seahawks teams as in the past.  Thomas Rawls has only averaged 3.2 yards per rush in filling in for the retired Marshawn Lynch, and Christine Michael is in Green Bay.  I really shouldn't trust the Lions, or Matt Stafford for that matter, but the +325 line is too hard to pass up.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (44) OVER
Somebody has to score in the NFL, and since Houston will beat Oakland 12-6, the points have to be scored in this game.

Miami Dolphins +11 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Miami defeated Pittsburgh earlier in the year, but that was primarily because they knocked out Ben Roethlisberger (enter Landry Jones), and because nobody was prepared for Jay Ajayi.  Well, guess what, people are prepared for Jay Ajayi and they still cannot really stop him.  This game stays pretty close, even though Pittsburgh is hot.  The pass rush of Ndamukong Suh inside and Cameron Wake with Dion Jordan (ha - that's funny) outside will put lots of pressure on Roethlisberger.

Miami Dolphins +475 at Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $100 to win $475)
Now I honestly think Pittsburgh is going to win this game, but Pittsburgh is going off at -650 (other sites have between -600 and -650), which means the payoff opportunity is not there.  So, if there is even chance that Miami could win this game - and obviously there is because it already happened earlier this year - I am going to take that chance.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (46) OVER
If both teams hit their statistical averages in scoring, and are around the statistical averages in points allowed, then this is right at the number.  I think it will be a bit more high scoring than that, say, 28-24.

Green Bay Packers -5 v. New York Giants
This is honestly the toughest one for me to pick as I don't know how this game is going to go.  I have not thought that the Giants were very good all year.  They cannot run, and in fact, were outrused by the Packers who are on their 37th starting tailback this season - and he is a Tight End.  The Giants are 23rd in passing defense, which should favor the Packers, but safety Landon Collins has 5 interceptions, and is playing like the best safety in football.  That being said, Aaron Rodgers has been on a roll, having won 6 straight.  I will ake the Packers to win more easily than most think.

Green Bay Packers -230 v. New York Giants (Bet $230 to win $100)
For much of the same reason as outlined above.  I really feel that the Packers are going to win this game outright, and at -230, it isn't that bad of a risk to win $100, especially considering that the Giants are only at +190 (some books at +200).  Give me Aaron Rodgers.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (44 1/2) OVER
Green Bay might score 31 by themselves.


Last Week's Record:  9-7
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  132-121-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($35)

Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,560)

NFL Wild Card Roundtable

Pepster:  It is that time of year, ladies and gentlemen, where the best of the best football players in the world start the competition for Super Bowl Champion.  That's right, it's Wildcard Weekend, with four (almost) scintillating competitions that begin this afternoon.  Let's jump right it, and we will take the games in the order that they will be played.  First up:  Oakland and Houstson.

Sinickal:  Excuse me?  That is the first playoff game of the year?  Can we just fast forward to next week?

Hopps:  I probably won't even watch.

Pepster:  OK,I hear you.  So we don't start off with the most attractive of matchups, especially given the Brock Osweiler/Conner Cook quarterback competition.  Which sounds like something that should be said during training camp for third string.

Hopps:  This is the first time in the Super Bowl era that a quarterback will be making his first career start in the postseason.  Good luck Conner Cook, you are going to need it.

Sinickal:  The over/under on Cook completions should be 2.

Pepster:  That might be a little low, so I'll take that over, but the Texans did finish the season with the number one defense in terms of total yards (but 11th in points).  Good thing for them that they are a whopping 29th in total yards on offense (but they are T28th in points).

Hopps:  Speaking of Houston's defense, I predict that Michael Crabtree will get his chain snatched again.

Sinickal:  That is where we disagree.  Crabtree will be wearing a padlock around his neck.  That might slow him down a bit, though.

Pepster, Sinickal, Hopps (in unison):  Texans.

Pepster:  Let's turn to tonight's game in Seattle as the Seahawks  host the Detroit Lions.  Matthew Stafford has had by most standards, a helluva year, especially given the retirement of Calvin Johnson and virtually every running back on the team.

Sinickal:  Stafford will break his thumb on this throwing hand - because that's what the Lions do.

Hopps:  The Lions haven't won a playoff game since Barry Sanders.  BARRY SANDERS.

Pepster:  Well, both of those may be true, but this isn't the same Seahawks team as the previous few years.  They struggled early (boring close win [12-10] over the Dolphins in week 1 when the Dolphins started pre-retirement Arian Foster), they struggled late (losing at home to Arizona in week 16 and barely beating a despicably bad San Francisco team 25 - 23 in week 17).  They just haven't been the same since Earl Thomas went out.  Part of what makes the "Legion of Boom" great is all of them collectively, and Thomas is likely the best.

Sinickal and Hopps (in unison):  BUT IT'S THE LIONS!

Pepster:  I am going with Detroit.  Stafford throws for 330 and 3 touchdowns.

Sinckal and Hopps:  HA! HA! HA!

Sinickal:  Wait, you're serious?

Hopps:  Given me Seattle.

Sinickal:  Me too.  Good luck with that.

Pepster:  Hopefully tomorrow's games will be more enticing that the dreck we have tonight.  Let's go to the early game where the Miami Dolphins are visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Steelers are a 10 point favorite.  Now, honestly, this I do not understand.  The Dolphins defeated the Steelers earlier this season - albeit at home - after knocking Ben Roethlisberger out of the game.  Their defense bottled up Le'Veon Bell nicely, who only gained 53 yards rushing (+55 yards receiving).  Should this really be a 10 point spread.

Sinickal:  Well, Matt Moore is pretty nice as far as backup quarterbacks go, but I think Ryan Tannehill gets into this game for at least one snap just so he can say he played in a playoff game.  Come to think of it, so will Brock Osweiler!

Hopps:  Not that I am a big Tom Savage fan, but GOOD GOD - BROCK OSWEILER.

Pepster:  Anyway - let's get back to the Dolphins/Steelers game.

Sinickal:  Pittsburgh, easy.

Hopps:  I concur.

Pepster:  It's unanimous.  Steelers.  Primarily because I do not want to see the Dolphins play at New England next week.  Last game, New York Giants at 11-5 travel to the higher seeded Green Bay Packers at 10-6.  Predictions?

Sinickal:  Aaron Rodgers is pushed out at the sideline for a first down in the second quarter next to Eli Manning, where the two set into a heated squabble over who is the greatest playoff QB ever. Strangely missing from that conversation is Joe Montana.

Hopps:  Well, the last two times the Giants went to Green Bay they went on to win a Super Bowl.  Eli has a much better post season record in Green Bay than Aaron Rodgers.

Pepster:  Guys, are we really getting into the minutiae of which quarterback is better in one specific stadium?

Sinickal:  I didn't mean for us to get into that discussion, I just think Eli and Aaron will.

Hopps:  I will get into any argument I want.

Pepster:  Well, I will never give any credit to Aaron Rodgers, so to try to seem neutral, I will compliment Green Bay's left tackle, David Bakhtiari who, with all apologies to Tyron Smith, was the best left tackle in football this year.

Sinickal:  F'in nerd!

Pepster:  No, that is Baltimore Ravens guard John Urschel, who while playing in the NFL just started pursuing his Ph.D. in Mathematics at M.I.T., was named to Forbes "30 under 30" list in the field of science, has had six peer reviewed mathematics papers (with 3 more ready for review), and he specializes in spectral graph theory, numerical linear algebra and machine learning.

Sinickal:  I was talking about you!

Hopps:  Well, you both have points there.

Pepster:  So, who is going to win?

Hopps:  Giants.

Sinickal:  Packers.

Pepster:  Green Bay has gone through Eddie Lacy, James Starks, Knile Davis, John Kuhn, Christine Michael at Running Back, and even Offensive Coordinator Edgar Bennett thought about coming out of retirement before they settled on Tight End Ty Montgomery as their go-to tailback.  They still have a better rushing attack then the Giants.  Packers.

Any last thoughts

Sinickal:  Can we just get to next week?

Hopps:  So you can watch my Cowboys?

Sinickal:  Dope.

Pepster:  See everyone here next week.

Picks of the Week

We are finally at week 17 of what has been an eventful, interesting, and costly NFL Season.  Since we really have no idea who is really going to be playing this week, I should just take this week off, but after three great weeks in a row, I will try to make it four.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Chicago Bears +6 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
My reverse curse of hopefully ending up with DeShaun Watson seems to be working.  A loss here cements the third pick in the draft, unless the 49ers win their second in a row and then the Bears will pick second!

Cincinnati Bengals +1 v. Baltimore Ravens
I have no idea who is going to show up in this game, but I am taking the Bengals because they are at home, and more importantly, I feel that the Ravens will be flat after missing out on the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 v. Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay still has a shot at the playoffs if:  (1) Tampa wins over Carolina; (2) Detroit beats Green Bay; (3) Tennessee defeats Houston; (4) Indianapolis conquers Jacksonville; (5) Dallas knocks off Philadelphia; (6) San Francisco overcomes Seattle; and (7) New York (Giants) tie Washington.  So you are saying there's a chance.  Well, at least it starts here.

Houston Texans +3 at Tennessee Titans
Tom Savage and Matt Cassell in an epic battle of mediocrity.

Jacksonville Jaguars +6 at Indianapolis Colts
Allen Robinson finally made an appearance last week.  Leave it to the Jaguars to play hard for their coach in the two games AFTER he was fired.

Miami Dolphins +7 1/2 v. New England Patriots
New England still has to win (or lose and have help) to maintain home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  That makes this game one of the more interesting ones on the weekend.  The textbook on how to beat Brady is to put pressure on him from the middle - enter Ndamukong Suh - and hit him/sack him - enter Cameron Wake.

New York Jets + 3 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
The Jets can't even effectively bench their starting quarterback, as Ryan Fitzpatrick is again starting.  Look for him to fling it around the field in search of a new team/contract for next year.  Oh yeah, plus E.J. Manual.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have absolutely nothing to play for, and the story is that Dak Prescott, Tony Romo AND Mark Sanchez will all play today.  Philly wins big.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
No two game winning streak for the Browns.  The Steelers are just too much, even if they play backups.

New Orleans Saints +7 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
This could end up being a shootout.  With just a couple of more wins, Drew Brees would likely be the leading MVP candidate.

Washington Racists -7 1/2 v. New York Giants
The Giants have nothing to play for, whereas the Racists still have the opportunity to make the playoffs with a win and the Detroit/Green Bay game finishing in anything other than a tie.  (There is a scenario with Washington ties, Detroit beats Green Bay and Carolina defeats Tampa, but what are the odds that Washington finishes the season with two ties?)

Denver Broncos -1 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
We do not know what we will be getting with Matt McGloin (or as was told to him at Penn State "Pat My Groin").  We do know that the Broncos will be fired up to win one for Gary Kubiak, who is rumored to be retiring due to health issues.

Los Angeles Rams +7 v. Arizona Cardinals
A likely snoozer, but the Rams defense - behind the stellar play of Aaron Donald - will likely keep this one close.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
The Chiefs can still win the division, and possibly have home-field advantage.  That is something to play for as the Chiefs have one of the best home field crowds in the NFL.

San Francisco 49ers +11 v. Seattle Seahawks
Only because Seattle's mind likely won't be in this game for the entirety.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Detroit Lions
The biggest, most important, most anticipated game of the day occurs in the evening, where the winner makes the playoffs and likely knocks the loser out of the playoffs.  In this type of scenario, would YOU bet against Aaron Rodgers?  I wouldn't.

Big Bet
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
No two game winning streak for the Browns.  The Steelers are just too much, even if they play backups.  It's Cleveland, and the point spread seems small.

Last Week's Record:  10-6
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  123-114-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $490
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,525)