Picka of the Week

I am travelling for the holidays, so no analysis, just picks.  Merry Christmas all and enjoy your Saturday NFL games.

New York Giants +1 at Philadelphia

Chicago Bears +3 v. Washington Racists

Miami Dolphins +4 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Atlanta Falcons -3 at Carolina Panthers

Cleveland Browns +4 v. San Diego Chargers

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

 Tennessee Titans -5 at Jacksonville Jaguars

New England Patriots -17 v. New York Jets

Oakland Raiders -3 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Los Angeles Rams -4 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Arizona Cardinals +7 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Cincinnati Bengals +1 at Houston Texans

Baltimore Ravens +6 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Kansas City Chiefs -3 v. Denver Broncos

Detroit Lions +6 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Big Bet - Miami Dolphins (almost went with the Packers)

Last Week's Record:  11-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  113-108-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $700
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($2,015)

Picks of the Week

Week 15, and we are officially in the homestretch.  Finally, a week to celebrate, although I missed by big bet.  Still, 12-4 is fantastic.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Los Angeles Rams + 15 at Seattle Seahawks

Mind you, I didn't think the Rams would actually win this game, but getting more than two touchdowns?!  The Rams lost the first game to Seattle 9-6.  I thought 20-6 was a distinct possibility..

Miami Dolphins -2 1/2 at New York Jets
Miami had won 7 of its previous 8 and the Jets are one of the five worst teams in the league.

Chicago Bears +4 v. Green Bay Packers
We all know that I am picking the Bears in every game hoping that my jinx works so that they can get DeShaun Watson in the draft.  So, here is to the Bears limiting Aaron Rodgers, covering the spread, and hoping Watson slips to the 5th or 6th pick.  It is supposed to be a high of around 5 degrees today, so anything can happen.

Baltimore Ravens -5 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
I am way, way too late on the Ravens this year.  I still don't see how they are 7-6 and in the playoff hunt, but they are.  Mike Wallace has a real chance of going over 1,000 yards receiving on the season in this game.

Buffalo Bills -10 v. Cleveland
It's Cleveland.

Houston -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

I honestly thought that the Texans were done last week against the Colts, but then they pulled out the win in Indianapolis.  If they play the same type of football, they win at home against Jacksonville.  This is the battle of the two worst starting quarterbacks in the league that do not play for Cleveland.

Tennessee Titans +6 at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are having a great season at 10-3, and can clinch a win with a victory today over the Titans.  That still may happen, but the Titans have the 3rd best rushing offense, the 4th best third down percentage and the 3rd best rushing defense.  This should be a battle, and that means the game is close.

Minnesota Vikings -5 v. Indianapolis Colts
Only because the Colts laid an egg last week, and I am hoping that the return of Adrian Peterson is just the spark Minnesota needs to pummel the Colts.  Not sure this is the smart bet, but it is my bet.

Detroit Lions +4 at New York Giants

With Miami, these two teams are the hottest in football with the Lions having won 5 straight games and the Gians having won 7 of their last 8.  Detroit has made it a habit of playing very tight, close games, and this one should be no different.  Therefore, I will take the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Cincinnati Bengals
Taking a road favorite is bad, but especially an intra-divisional game.  Why am I doing it, then?  Well, the Steelers have won 4 in a row, having not once surrendered 100 yards rushing during this streak.  Without A.J. Green, the Bengals need to rely more heavily on their running game, and it looks like that is not going to happen.  Plus, anytime our Patron Saint mouths off, something bad will happen to that team the next game.

New Orleans Saints +3 at Arizona Cardinals
Drew Brees is quietly having one of the best years of his career at age 66.  I don't see where Arizona's defense has the capability of shutting him down.  Larry Fitzgerald is quietly approaching the 100 reception mark, but New Orleans scores enough to keep in this game.

Atlanta Falcons -14 v. San Francisco 49ers
The Falcons are first in points per game, 3rd in passing yards and 3rd in total  yards per game.  Meanwhile San Francisco is 32nd in points per game defense, total yards per game defense and rushing yards per game defensively.  Atlanta should score, A LOT.

New England Patriots -3 at Denver Broncos
New England is 6-0 on the road this season, and coming ever so close to clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.  This is when Belichick is at his best, especially against a one-dimensional offense.  Devontae Booker has not excelled since CJ Anderson went down injured, averaging only 3.43 yards per carry.  Meanwhile, LaGarrette Blount is fifth in the NFL in rushing.

Oakland Raiders -2 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
San Diego is tough, but without a legitimate running game to exploit Oakland's defense, guys like Khalil Mack will feast on the pass rush.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott has failed to reach 200 yards passing in each of his last 3 games.  The Buccaneers defense, which is second best in the NFL in 3rd down percentage, is vastly improved from earlier in the season.  The best receiver in this game - Mike Evans with 80 catches (compared to Dez Bryant's 38).  Yes Ezekial Elliott is a best, but Tampa keeps this game close - and I believe can win outright.

Washington Racists -7 v. Carolina Panthers
Washington is second in the league offensively in total yards and passing yards whereas Carolina's defense is 30th in pass defense.  Kirk Cousins should feast this week.  I wonder whatever happened to Josh Norman ...

Big Bet Game of the Week

Tennessee Titans +6 at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are having a great season at 10-3, and can clinch a win with a victory today over the Titans.  That still may happen, but the Titans have the 3rd best rushing offense, the 4th best third down percentage and the 3rd best rushing defense.  This should be a battle, and that means the game is close.

I would have actually picked Miami in this slot, but with them playing the early game, nobody would have believed me.  I will take the tough running team getting 6 points.

Last Week's Record: 12-4

Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 102-103-5

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 4-10

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):$595

Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($2,715)

He IS Our Patron Saint!

Another great day of NFL football was made even greater yesterday by an epic appearance from our Patron Saint. If you were watching the Cleveland Browns lose their 16th straight game yesterday to the Cincinnati Bengals, you were there for the trainwreck that is pro football in Ohio.

It. Was. Awful.

But. But, it was also fun to see the Browns mascot take a header on the sidelines trying to retrieve a football. It was fun watching Robert Griffin III throw a fleaflicker from his endzone into triple coverage for an interception. And most importantly, it was fun to see our Patron Saint in a post-game interview talking about Terrelle Pryor. I have no idea what prompted this, and since I am not a journalist, I don't care. The video link below (courtesy of FOX19, via Facebook) is all you and I need...

Adam Jones "Trashes" Terrelle Pryor

I only wish that there was a way for him to have made it rain also.

Picks of the Week

Week 14 - after last week, I should just give up.  I have definitely mentally checked out on this year, but I will not quit.  Onto the picks.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Oakland Raiders +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Ugh..

Chicago Bears +7 1/2 at Detroit Lions
The Bears are actually playing much better as of late.  Of course, last week was San Francisco, but they should have beaten the Titans if not for 47 dropped touchdown passes.  (No, I am not bitter).  Anyways, here is to losing the game, but winning the pick.  C'Mon DeShaun Watson.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
The Steelers run defense is suspect, but they are on a 3 game winning streak to keep themselves in the playoff hunt.

Carolina Panthers -1 v. San Diego Chargers
West coast team playing the early game on the east coast is the only reason I am picking Carolina.  Plus, every year there are two teams that I just cannot figure out.  Last year it was the Racists and the Chiefs.  This year it is definitely the Chargers.  My first instinct was that they would win.  So, since I cannot figure them out, I will go Carolina.

Cincinnati Bengals -5 at Cleveland Browns
It's Cleveland.

Indianapolis Colts -6 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Brock Osweiler is playing about as bad as any quarterback in the league not named Blake Bortles.

Minnesota Vikings -3 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Speaking of Bortles.

Miami Dolphins +2 v. Arizona Cardinals
Another west team (albeit not coastal) heading east for an early game, but the clincher for me here is that the Dolphins NEED a bounce back after the thrashing they took from Baltimore last week.

Washington Racists -1 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Washington just looks better right now.  Jay Gruden says he believes running back Robert Kelly needs a few more touches, so he will not keep him trapped in the closet this game.

Tennessee Titans -1 v. Denver Broncos
Marcos Mariota has played much better than most people realize, having thrown multiple touchdown passes in 8 consecutive games.  Denver seems a bit sluggish.

New York Jets +3 at San Francisco 49ers
Who cares?!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 v. New Orleans Saints
The Bucs offensive line has dramatically improved since the beginning of the season, as has the defense.  I see the Bucs scoring on a few sustained drives, keeping the ball away from Drew Brees.

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Green  Bay Packers
Seattle might be starting to peak at just the right time.

Atlanta Falcons -5 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams, 1-7 in their last 8 games, are going to need a lot of help to defeat the Falcons.  They just might get it if Julio Jones doesn't play.

New York Giants +3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have had a great season, but they have to be the worst 11-1 team of all time.  That 1 loss came to the Giants.

Baltimore Ravens _6 1/2 at New England Patriots
John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco have proven that they can go into New England and win.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Indianapolis Colts -6 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Brock Osweiler is playing about as bad as any quarterback in the league not named Blake Bortles.

I was going to take Minnesota over Jacksonville as my big bet, giving up on 3 points, but Minnesota is on the road, so I'll take the home team Colts.

Last Week's Record: 5-10

Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 90-99-5

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 3-10

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):($450)

Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($3,310)

Picks of the Week

Horrible week, again.  This is becoming a familiar refrain.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Dallas Cowboys -3 at Minnesota Vikings

Road favorite, yes, but Minnesota was without a coach.  Damn Vikings.

Chicago Bears +1 v. San Francisco 49ers
If the Bears lose this game, and they should, they fall into the number 2 pick in the draft.  Let's go DeShaun Watson.

Kansas City Chiefs +4 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Kansas City just does not give up that many points on defense.  I feel the Falcon win, but 23-20.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
In what should be a really close game, I will take the points.  The Ravens have won four of the last five against the Dolphins, but Miami keeps it close at least.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Cincinnati tries to salvage something from a very disappointing season.  That something is they find a new a complement to A.J. Green in Tyler Boyd.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 v. Houston Texans

I predict that all of Green Bay's touchdown drives total the amount of plays in one of Houston's drives.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

The Broncos had established some good rhythm with Trevor Siemian, but have to start rookie Paxton Lynch today.  Austin Davis from Southern Mississippi is the backup today.  Rough going for the Broncos.

Los Angeles Rams +13 at New England Patriots
New England wins this game, but with all of their injuries, I do not see it being complete domination.  I will take almost 2 touchdowns.

New Orleans -6 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

The only thing that I know for sure about this game is that the Lions will be trailing in the fourth quarter.  I expect New Orleans to close them out.

Oakland Raiders -3 v. Buffalo Bills
Oakland is cruising.

Washington Racists +2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Kirk Cousins bet on himself, and he is winning HUGE!  The Skins offense keeps rolling against a disappointing Arizona team.  David Johnson does score two touchdowns, though.

New York Giants +6 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers cannot stop anybody, which means they really cannot stop Odell Beckham, Jr.  Plus, the visiting team usually wins in this series.  So, I will take the visiting team with points!

San Diego Chargers -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
San Diego is so much better than its 5-6 record.  They are the third highest scoring team, and they will put up a ton against Tampa Bay.

Carolina Panthers +7 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 5-0 at home, but three of these games have been by six points or less.  Cam pulls a big game out of Greg Olsen to keep this close on the road.

New York Jets +2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Andres Luck is 0-2 against the Jets in his career with a passer rating of 52.  Jets win in an upset.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 v. Houston Texans

I predict that all of Green Bay's touchdown drives total the amount of plays in one of Houston's drives.  Plus, it looks like Aaron Rodgers and this offense has found a good rhythm.

Last Week's Record: 7-8-1

Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 85-89-5

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 2-10

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):($30)

Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($2860)

Let Me Be Loud Wrong Early...

The final College Football Playoff rankings will be revealed on Sunday night, and I am positive that I will be really wrong about what I think should and will happen. Why do I say this? Well, because I believe that there should not be a path for Ohio State to be in the final four.

I said Ohio State has to be left out!

If everything stays status quo, I think that the final four should be:

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Washington
4. Penn State/Wisconsin winner

Okay, let me defend this since every expert says that Ohio State is clearly the second best team in the country. Why shouldn't I believe this?

I hate the eye test. They just look like the second best team. Or, the conference is the best this year, it deserves to have two teams. To me, this is the classic old school thinking that got us to a need for playoff committee and process to begin with. If this were just about an eye test, then yes, Ohio State looks great. Unfortunately, we have conferences. We have 12 game schedules. We have conference championship games. We can ACTUALLY determine the best teams in each conference.

How you ask?

WIN. YOUR. FREAKING. CONFERENCE.

The College Football Playoff Committee was established to find the best four teams at the end of the year. If you go to their website, you will find the following regarding the selection of the teams:

The selection committee ranks the teams based on conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, comparison of results against common opponents and other factors.

Ohio State will not play for its conference championship, because it lost to Penn State. If you aren't eligible to play for your conference championship, how can you be considered the best team in that conference? It invalidates the season and renders having a clear conference champion useless.

Look, this is going to be a very hard decision for the committee. The case for Ohio State and/or Michigan appears really strong:

• The Big 10 Champion is going to be a 2-loss team, and everybody really wants to see Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh in the playoffs. College football is a coaches game, and they are the stars
• The Big 10 Champion will have a head to head loss to Michigan
• Wisconsin lost to both Michigan and Ohio State
• The popular vote (polls) have had both Ohio State and Michigan highly ranked the entire year

But again, neither team figured out how to get enough wins to win their division, and there cannot be a reward for not playing in the conference championship.

Again, I am going to be loud wrong. While I truly hope for it, I don't believe that the committee will leave Ohio State out of the playoff. If the Big 12 Champion, and either the Big 10 or Pac 12 Champion is left out, there should be an investigation. Otherwise, there isn't really a need to play the regular season. Want to know who the playoff will be next year? Because I already know. It will be Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, and USC. Boom. Now you can all spend your Saturdays next fall playing golf and completing honey-do lists.

Once again, a solid week picking games with a good record, but missed the  big bet again.  Two weeks is good, three becomes a winning streak.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Minnesota Vikings +2 at Detroit Lions

Minnesota should have won a super close game just a few weeks ago, so I will take the points in a belief that today will be close as well.

Washington Racists +6 at Dallas Cowboys
Big test in the NFC East.  For all of the talk of the Cowboys offense being virtually unstoppable, they are third in the league in total offense, whereas the Racists are third.  This game should be close, and I feel DeSean Jackson or Jamison Crowder break one big play.  Rob Kelley has been a find.  (Not talking about Dallas because everyone else in the country already is).

Pittsburgh Steelers -9 at Indianapolis Colts
I have no idea what to do with this game.  Scott Tolzien is playing for the Colts in place of Andrew Luck.  The problem is that the Steelers have been giving up yards and points to teams with quarterbacks like Scott Tolzien.

Chicago Bears + 4 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
Admittedly, this should be a defeat for me, as the Titans should handle the Bears easily, especially without Jerrell Freeman and his 4 game suspension.  However, this is a reverse tanking karma pick.  Remember: DeShaun Watson.

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Arizona Cardinals
Other than David Johnson and a surprisingly great season from Larry Fitzgerald at age 93, the Cardinals have to be one of the more disappointing teams in the league.  I look for the Falcons to fly high over the Cardinals, and prey on the inferior birds with aggression.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

A.J. Green is out, which may actually force Andy Dalton to spread the ball around more against the second ranked total defense in the NFL.  Close game, so I'll take the points.

Buffalo Bills -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

This line scares me because of a last minute touchdown pass from Bortles to Robinson or Hurns to lose 21-14.  Nevertheless, my brother-in-law says to take the Bills, and he is a Jaguars season ticket holder.  In LeSean I trust.

New York Giants -7 at Cleveland Browns
I don't see the Browns rallying around Josh McCown.  This game ends 10-2.

Houston Texans +1 1/2 v. San Diego Chargers

I hate taking too many road favorites, so I am not taking the Chargers today.  I just love this line though, as the fourth place Chargers are favorites on the road at the first place Texans.  I hate this game.

Miami Dolphins -7 1/2 San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco, the Cleveland of the NFC.  Jay Ajayi could easily get his third 200 yard game of the year.

Seattle Seahawks -6 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Gotta love a game in which the leading rushers for the teams have 82 yards and 181 yards gained respectively.  Since I have taken all the other big spreads, what the hell, I'll do it again.

New Orleans -7 v. Los Angeles Rams
The Saints can score, and the Rams cannot.  Plus, I have already given up a ton of points in other games, so why not.

Oakland Raiders -3 v. Carolina Panthers
Carolina is holding onto faint playoff hopes, whereas Oakland is in total control of its own destiny.  I worry about the short week for the Raiders after playing at high altitude, so look for them to fade in the fourth quarter.

New England Patriots -7 1/2 at New York Jets
Why not another big road favorite.  Plus we just had the anniversary of the butt fumble.  Martellus Bennett with two touchdowns and the Patriots win 38-21.

Kansas City Chiefs +3 at Denver Broncos

The winner stays solid in the divisional title hunt and solidifies a wild card spot.    Both teams at 7-3, although neither team is prolific, so I'll take the points.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 v. Green Bay Packers
To quote Bomani Jones, the Packers' secondary is a lay-up line.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Washington Racists +6 at Dallas Cowboys
Big test in the NFC East.  For all of the talk of the Cowboys offense being virtually unstoppable, they are third in the league in total offense, whereas the Racists are third.  This game should be close, and I feel DeSean Jackson or Jamison Crowder break one big play.  Rob Kelley has been a find.  (Not talking about Dallas because everyone else in the country already is).

I thought about taking both Buffalo and New England here, but I changed my mind to pick the game in which I was receiving the most points.  This will come back to haunt me I am sure.

Last Week's Record: 8-5-1

Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 78-81-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-10

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $85

Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($2830)

Picks of the Week

Finally a solid week picking games with a good record, if only decent winnings because of that damn big bet.  Let's see if I finally have learned something about this year and can keep this little winning streak going.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

New Orleans Saints +3 at Carolina Panthers

Damn pushes.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
I just have this weird feeling about this one, as I initially thought Buffalo was an easy pick.  I can't explain it, just going with Cincinnati.

Chicago Bears +6 1/2 at New York Giants
Once again, a reverse pick just to assure that DeShaun Watson can be Cutler's successor.

Pittsburgh Steelers -8 at Cleveland Browns
A road favorite, giving 8 points in a conference game.  Cleveland just stinks. They have been playing hard, but poorly for weeks now.

Baltimore Ravens +7 at Dallas Cowboys
Yes the Cowboys are everybody's darlings right now in the league, but they have only beaten two teams with winning records.  I still think they win this game, but it will be close.  The league's number one ranked rushing and total yards defense versus the offensive line and Ezekial Elliott.  Should be a fun game in the trenches.

Detroit Lions -6 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Is it possible that every play in this game is a pass?

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 at Indianapolis

Marcus Mariota is the the quarterback with the highest QB Rating in this game (albeit it is close).  Murray likely goes over 1,000 yards on the season.  Titans roll into first place in their division.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Do not be fooled by Tampa's brilliant performance last week, it was against the Bears.  That being said, Cameron Brate is an emerging star at the Tight End position (Go Harvard!)

Arizona Cardinals +1 at Minnesota Vikings

Both teams on major slides right now.  The Vikings defense has been a bit exposed lately.

Miami Dolphins pick 'em at Los Angeles Rams
A lot is going to be made of Jared Goff's first start, but more should be made of the Dolphins 4 game winning streak, the fact that Jay Ajayi has outrushed Todd Gurley by over 200 yards, and the fact that although the Rams defense is generally stout, they are only 18th against the run.

New England Patriots -11 at San Francisco 49ers
I almost don't care how many points I have to give up in this game.

Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 1-4 on the raod this year, whereas the Seahawks are 4-0 at home.  Look for the Seattle defense to feast upon a rookie quarterback.

Washington Racists -3 v. Green Bay Packers
Washington is 5-1-1 in their last seven games, led by their third ranked passing offense (and fourth overall).  The Packers are pedestrian on offense and defense this year.

Oakland Raiders -5 1/2 v. Houston Texans in Mexico City

Altitude is going to play a factor as Estadio Azteca is at an elevation of over 7,000 feet, or roughly 7,000 feet higher than both Oakland and Houston.  Whichever teams adapts the best will win this game.  My money is on the team with more talent.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 at Indianapolis

Marcus Mariota is the the quarterback with the highest QB Rating in this game (albeit it is close).  Murray likely goes over 1,000 yards on the season.  Titans roll into first place in their division.
I honestly couldn't easily decide which game I wanted to be my big bet.  I ultimately decided on Tennessee over Washington, Seattle and Kansas City and Detroit because Tennessee was getting points.

Last Week's Record: 9-5
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 70-76-3
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $185
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($2915)

Picks of the Week

I am travelling as we speak, so no time for real analysis, just picks.  Not that it specifically matters, but I am heading to Tampa for the Chicago Bears game.

You know the rules - now for the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -8 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Chicago Bears -2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Houston Texans +2 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Miami Dolphins +4 1/2 at San Diego Chargers

Kansas City Chiefs  +3 at Carolina Panthers

New Orleans Saints -3 v. Denver Broncos

New York Jets +1 v. Los Angeles Rams

Atlanta Falcons +1 at Philadelphia Eagles

Tennessee Titans +3 v. Green Bay Packers

Washington Racists -1 1/2 v.  Minnesota Vikings

San Francisco 49ers +14 at Arizona Cardinals

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Seattle Seahawks +7 1/2 at New England

Cincinnati Bengals -1 at New York Giants

 Big Bet - Chicago -2 1/2 at Tampa

Last Week's Record: 4-8-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 61-71-3
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($665)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($3100)

Picks of the Week

Week 9 of the NFL Season, and last week stunk as well.  It is clear that I have no idea what the hell is going on in the NFL this year.  That being said, I am not giving up.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Atlanta Falcons -4 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I put this pick on Facebook prior to kickoff, so no allegations of cheating.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
I hate selecting road favorites, as I type ad nauseum in this blog, but I just think seeing Roethlisberger under center will inspire the team, even if he isn't all the way back to 100%.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
I am not so sure that any team plays harder than the Browns.  Not sure they will win, but I imagine that it is going to be closer than most expect.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Questions are already being asked of Gus Bradley as to when he is going to bench Blake Bortles with Chad Henne.  Think about that for a moment.

Miami Dolphins -4 v. New York Jets
I am not expecting Jay Ajayi to put up 200 yards like he did in his last two games before the bye, but the Dolphins offense has definitely discovered something that works for them, and I don't think Fitzpatrick can throw enough to keep up.

Minnesota Vikings -6 v. Detroit Lions

Is Minnesota ripe for a rebound after a lackluster performance Monday night against the Bears, or did a surprisingly spry Bears defense show the recipe to defeat the Vikings stagnant offense.  It could be both, but the Lions aren't the team to take advantage of the Vikings.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 at New York Giants

The Eagles certainly aren't as great as their start, but the Giants have no running game at all.  I'll take the points.

Carolina Panthers -3 at Los Angeles Rams
This is the pick in which I honestly scratch my own head over it, but, is it possible that Carolina turned the corner last week?  I hope so.

New Orleans Saints -4 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco is just horrible.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Indianapolis Colts
This is a gut reaction, because the brain says that 7 is too many points.  Perhaps the new "running" game found by the Packers is for real.  By "running" I mean "more passing".

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
We are going to look back on Philip Rivers's career and wonder how he did what he did with some of the teams he had.

Denver Broncos +1 at Oakland Raiders
I am actually a big believer in the Raiders.  But, their defense needs to do A LOT to catch up to the offense.  Carr, Murray, Cooper, Crabtree and Company will not score as much as they have grown accustomed, and that is why Denver will win this game.

Buffalo Bills +7 at Seattle Seahawks
Buffalo seems a bit different to me lately (with the exception of the New England game, but isn't that everybody's exception?), and that is a good thing overall.  Not sure they will beat Seattle, but I think they can keep it close.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
I hate selecting road favorites, as I type ad nauseum in this blog, but I just think seeing Roethlisberger under center will inspire the team, even if he isn't all the way back to 100%.
This is my big bet mainly because I have no idea how Baltimore is even 3-4.

Last Week's Record:  5-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  57-63-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($545)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($2435)

Picks of the Week

I am travelling, so no time for analysis.  perhaps that will help.

Jacksonville +3 at Tennessee
Cincinnati -3 v. Washington (in London)
Buffalo + 5 1/2 v. New England
Cleveland +2 v. New York Jets
Houston -1 1/2 v. Detroit
Indianapolis + 2 1/2 v. Kansas City
Seattle -1 at New Orleans
Oakland - 1 1/2 at Tampa Bay
Arizona +3 at Carolina
Denver -3 1/2 v. San Diego
Atlanta -3 v. Green Bay
Philadelphia +5 at Dallas
Chicago +4 v. Minnesota (hoping to lose; wanting DeShaun Watson)

Big Bet - Arizona +3 at Carolina

Last Week's Record:  8-7
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  52-55-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($135)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($1890)

Week 7 of the NFL Season, and although last week wasn't a big week, it did end the losing streak (at least as far as winning percentage - damn you big bet).  Can this continue?  It is not just going to continue, it is going to be a springboard to a bigger week.  I can feel it.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Chicago Bears +7 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Yes I lost this one, but my Bears are inching closer to DeShaun Watson.

Los Angeles Rams + 2 1/2 v. New York Giants in London
I am taking the points, given that the Giants are 30th in the league in rushing.  Hard to win a game against Aaron Donald and Company like that.

Cincinnati Bengals -10 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Double digits is hard to give up in an intradivisional game, especially given how hard the Browns are playing right now, but the Bengals are 5th in the league in passing, while Cleveland is 5th from the bottom.  Big game for Brandon LaFell today.

Washington Racists +1 at Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions cannot stop the run recently, and somehow, the Racists have developed a significant running attack with Matt Jones.  Detroit's mediocre offense is even more difficult given that they have about zero running backs with NFL experience.

Jacksonville Jaguars -2 v. Oakland Raiders
Oakland's defense is absolutely horrible, and although the Jaguars offense has been struggling, this game could be the remedy that Jacksonville needs.  It is obvious that T.J. Yeldon is not the answer, but Chris Ivory is getting a bit healthier and stronger, and if the Jaguars can keep the time of possession in the favor, and away from Derek Carr and Amari Cooper, the Jaguars will win.  Plus, Oakland is travelling east for an early game.

New Orleans Saints +6 at Kansas City Chiefs

The Saints defense is horrendous, but Kansas City's offense is not good enough to truly take advantage of it.  Drew Brees has a 103.1 passer rating this year, leading the NFL's number 1 ranked passing offense (and number 2 ranked total offense).  Jamal Charles is back, but is he ever really back?

Miami Dolphins +2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

This is the one pick that I am not super confident about, but for some reason I think the Dolphins build on last week's win over the Steelers.  Plus, I hate picking road favorites.  Not sure who on the Bills can keep up with Jarvis Landry, although the suspect linebackers on the Dolphins will have a tough time with Tyrod Taylor.  I'll take the points and hope the game is close, 21-20 maybe.

Baltimore Ravens +1 1/2 at New York Jets
Geno Smith.

Philadelphia Eagles Eagles +3 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings lead the league in scoring defense, only giving up 12.6 points per game, but the Eagles are fourth in scoring, and are 8th in rushing.  If they can keep control of the ball and score early, it would be difficult for the Vikings to come back.  Plus, I love when the home team receives points.

Tennessee Titans -3 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
Other than yardage, Marcus Mariota is playing as well as Andrew Luck.  The Titans defense is strangely good, and the Colts have signed 5 turnstiles as offensive lineman.

Atlanta Falcons -4 1/2 v. San Diego Chargers
Every San Diego game has been close, but Atlanta's offense is completely another level.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers
This is exactly the game Jameis Winston needs to break out of a mediocre start to the season.  San Francisco is 27th in total defense, and 31st in scoring defense.  The only redeeming value for the 49ers is that Tampa Bay cannot run the ball.

New England Patriots -7 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Yes, I am taking a road favorite, but I can do that because Landry Jones is starting.  What do you think Bill Belichick will have planned for a quarterback that rarely plays?  Everything.

Seattle Seahawks +1 at Arizona Cardinals
Arizona has recently feasted on the detritus that is the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers, but Seattle, at 4-1, is the polar opposite of the Arizona's recent conquests.  The Seahawks first overall defense, and third scoring defense, is going to make life difficult for Carson Palmer, David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald.

Houston Texans +9 at Denver Broncos
A really interesting Monday Night matchup.  I don't think that Houston is really good enough to beat Denver right now, and both teams defenses are ranked first and second in passing yards allowed, so it will fall on the running backs.  It just seems that the Texans trust Lamar Miller more than the Broncos do CJ Anderson.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Atlanta Falcons -4 1/2 v. San Diego Chargers
Every San Diego game has been close, but Atlanta's offense is completely another level.

Last Week's Record:  8-6-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 44-48-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($25)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($1755)

Picks of the Week

Week 6 of the NFL Season, and the losing streak continues.  Honestly, don't believe anything I write here until this streak comes to an end.  Just don't.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

San Diego Chargers +3 v. Denver Broncos

Not selecting a road favorite on a short week.  Now, I did not think the Chargers were going to win, but I did see a 21-20, or 10-9 type of game.  I always tell whomever I am watching the game with of my selection, and this time it was Sam.

Chicago Bears -1 v. Jacksonville Jaguars.
Once again - this is for the DeShaun Watson sweepstakes.  Given that I have been wrong most the time, at least with this pick, I can live with it.

Buffalo Bills -8 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
At first glance, this number seemed way too high for me, and my instinct was to select San Francisco. But then I remembered that Colin Kaepernick is half of his former playing wait, and the 49ers are travelling east for an early game.  Buffalo, easy.

Detroit Lions -3 v. Los Angeles Rams
Another west coast team travelling east for the early game, only this east coast team has a quarterback with only 4 interceptions in 181 pass attempts (with 10 touchdowns) while Case Keenum has 5 interceptions (compared to only 5 TDs) in 152 pass attempts.  Aaron Donald is likely the best player on the field, and can cause havoc in the middle of the line, but likely not enough to stop a two game skid.

Miami Dolphins +7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
I am actually going to this game, so I am hoping that it is a close game (and that both Le'Veon Bell and Jarvis Landry have huge games).  Pittsburgh wins, but not by more than a touchdown.

Cincinnati Bengals +8 at New England Patriots

Just too big of a line.  The Bengals haven't won in New England since 1986, but need a serious win to avoid falling even further behind the other AFC playoff contenders.  I think Cincinnati could win this game outright, so I will definitely take the points.

Carolina Panthers -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

So, back when I used to have a good winning percentage on my picks, I would generally follow the rules that I have learned are generally solid, straying occasionally when I thought the spread called for it, like this game.  Jonathan Stewart is back for the Panthers, and besides, the Saints cannot stop anybody.  Two touchdowns each for Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin.

Baltimore Ravens +3 at New York Giants
Believe it or not, the Ravens actually have a better running game than the Giants, so for that reason alone, I select Baltimore (plus the points).

Washington Racists +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Both teams need this game to keep pace in the NFC East.  With the home team getting points, I will take them, and hope that Matt Jones can get just enough yards to let the league's 6th best passing game do what they need to do to beat the Eagles.

Tennessee Titans -7 v. Cleveland Browns
While Cleveland is focusing on the Toronto Blue Jays, the Titans have quietly amassed the second best rushing offense in the league at 148.6 yards per game.  That equals victory in this game.

Kansas City Chiefs -1 at Oakland Raiders
Yes it is a road favorite, but at 1 point, not really.  Andy Reid is 15-2 all time coming off a bye week.

Green Bay Packers -4 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay lead's the NFL in rushing defense, allowing 42.8 yards per game and 1.99 yards per rush.  Ezekial Elliott will do better than that, but not enough to win.

Atlanta Falcons + 6 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
These Falcons just seem different from those of the past few years.  They are first in the NFL in points, total yards per game and passing yards per game, while also being seventh in rushing yards per game.  Seattle's defense is first in total yards per game, third in passing yards and 7th in rushing yards.  Clearly something has to give, as Seattle's offense and Atlanta's defense are both rather pedestrian.  I will take the points.

Houston Texans -3 v. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are 1-4 in their last 5 road games, giving up almost 35 points per game.  Hopefully Lamar Miller can score a couple of touchdowns against a defense like that.

New York Jets + 7 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Not a very inviting Monday Night Football game, as a pair of third place teams will be showcased.  Ryan actually played pretty well against Pittsburgh last week, going 25-38 for 255 yards and 1 touchdown, with no interceptions.  Drew Stanton will not be the Jets by more than a touchdown, even though David Johnson is a serious MVP candidate.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Carolina Panthers -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

So, back when I used to have a good winning percentage on my picks, I would generally follow the rules that I have learned are generally solid, straying occasionally when I thought the spread called for it, like this game.  Jonathan Stewart is back for the Panthers, and besides, the Saints cannot stop anybody.  Two touchdowns each for Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin.

What the hell.  I just feel that the Saints defense is that bad.  They are last in the league in points allowed, and 31st in the league in yards allowed.

Last Week's Record:  5-9
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 34-42-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($655)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($1730)

Picks of the Week

Week 5 of the NFL Season, and I am coming off two horrendous weeks in a row. Perhaps after a couple of good years in a row this is my comeuppance.  But, I am not giving up.  After a close brush with Hurricane Matthew, the detritus of foliage has been cleared out, selfishness has been washed away, if only for the time being, and hopefully my view of the NFL has been cleansed and I can see clearly now the rain is gone (sorry, couldn't help it).

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Thursday games are always tricky as the games are usually horrible.  So instead of worrying about selecting a road favorite, I just picked the best team.  I told the people I watched the game with I was selecting Arizona, but did not put it on Facebook as I was conserving battery in case I lost power during the Hurricane.  Thankfully, I did not.

Chicago Bears + 4 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
So, the Bears let me down by winning last week, but I am still hoping that my pick is the kiss of death so that Chicago will have DeShaun Watson under center next year.  Of course, I think Indianapolis is overrated this year, and that the Bears can keep it close.

Washington Racists +4 at Baltimore Ravens
These two teams give me serious problems, as I still cannot figure out who they are, and how good they are or are not.  Given that neither team is especially explosive offensively, I will take the points.  Especially since the Ravens are less explosive than the Racists.  Whichever team establishes the run game first will win.  Matt Jones did that last week, and will try to solidify his hold as the starting running back with a second great performance.

New England Patriots - 10 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
Road favorite?  Check.  Double digit favorite?  Check.  Wish there was another reason to not pick the Patriots and I would check that off too.  However, Tom Brady returns, and he is going to be angry.  I feel glad I have Julian Edelman on my fantasy team today.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at Detroit Lions
Philadelphia is a road favorite, yes, but the Detroit Lions just are not very good.  Their defense gave up 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing to the Chicago Bears last week.

Miami Dolphins -3 v. Tennessee Titans

Two 1-3 teams with limited time to salvage playoff hopes this season.  Not sure why I picked the Dolphins here, as it is just a gut feeling.  I don't trust Ryan Tannehill, but he does have much better receivers than Mariota has to work with.  Jarvis Landry makes a big play that wins this bet.

Houston Texans +6 at Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings only give up 12 1/2 points per game, which means this should be easy to pick the undefeated home squad.  However, the Texans only give up 18.3, so I will take the 6 points. Minnesota is a monster on defense, but are not prolific offensively, ranking 32nd in the league in rushing yards and 31st in total yards.  This might be ripe for an outright upset.

New York Jets +9 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Don't get me wrong, the Steelers will win this game, but they rank 30th in pass defense, and Ryan Fitzpatrick loves to throw the ball (even though they should be more balanced).  The Steelers offense, behind Roethlisberger, Bell and Brown, jump out on the Jets, who have to throw to comeback, and end up losing by a touchdown.

Denver Broncos -3 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Denver's defense is phenomenal, as we all know, but it is especially tough against the pass.  Denver's pass defense ranks second in the league by holding teams to 169.5 yards per game.  Atlanta is a pass-heavy team, gaining 354.2 yards per game.  They won't approach that total in this game, and Denver wins.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys, behind rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekial Elliott (second leading rusher in the league), are one of the NFL's big story.  However, the Bengals are one of the leagues better teams, and they will pass all over the Cowboys defense.  I don't expect this game to be close.

Los Angeles Rams + 2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
Yes the Rams may be doing this with smoke and mirrors, but Case Keenum is 6-2 in his last 8 starts.  And they are getting points against the Bills?  Buffalo is coming off a huge win over the New England Patriots, and might be ripe for a let down this week, as well. I will take the home team getting points.

Oakland Raiders -3 1/2 v. San Diego Chargers
Not really sure who to pick in this divisional rivalry.  I have gone back and forth on reasons to pick both Oakland and San Diego.  I settled on Oakland because, well, because I attended Sebastian Janikowski's wedding and his wife is currently pregnant.  Not a football related reason, but hell, they way things have gone this year, it is as good as any.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. New York Giants
Green Bay will be fresh coming off a bye week, and the Giants are mediocre defending the pass.  I will give the points.

Carolina Panthers -5 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yes, Cam Newton is out for the Panthers.  But, Doug Martin, and likely Charles Sims, the top two running backs are out for Tampa Bay.  Derek Anderson is a veteran that can rely on the games best tight end, Greg Olsen, and a large target in Kelvin Benjamin to be open when he needs them to be.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys, behind rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekial Elliott (second leading rusher in the league), are one of the NFL's big story.  However, the Bengals are one of the leagues better teams, and they will pass all over the Cowboys defense.  I don't expect this game to be close.
Picking a road team and giving points does not seem like the recipe for a guaranteed bet, but I feel this strongly about Cincinnati in this game.  Carlos Dunlap has a big game in getting to Dak Prescott, and forces him into his first interception, by Pacman Jones, our Patron Saint.

Last Week's Record:  6-9
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 29-33-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($555)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($1075)

Picks of the Week

Week 4 of the NFL Season, and boy did I get obliterated in week 3.  If only I had trusted my tried and true gambling rules, I would have at least finished in the black.  I blame my poor performance on the fact that I was preoccupied with the Jose Fernandez news last week.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

I just didn't think the Dolphins could score enough to cover.  I did post this pick on my facebook page before the game, so there is written proof that I am not just picking this game after the fact.

Indianapolis Colts -2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Not a true home game for the Jaguars as this game is being played in London.  Indianapolis has won 6 of the last 8 against Jacksonville, who looks a lot worse than I expected this year.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Detroit Lions
So far I have picked the Bears 3 times, and they have lost - and failed to cover - each of those times.  I am going to keep selecting them as long as they are in the race for the number 1 pick, as Deshaun Watson would look great in Chicago blue.

Atlanta Falcons +3 v. Carolina Panthers
Something seems to be missing from the Panthers this year, and it isn't readily observable.  One would say that means that Carolina is due to break out, which could happen against an abysmal Falcons defense.  But Atlanta is at home, and is first in the NFL in points per game and yards per game.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
I think Baltimore might be the worst 3-0 team in NFL history, but I will pick them and give the points because the Raiders have not lived up to their pre-season hype, and they are a west coast team travelling to the east coast and playing the early game.  Going back to obeying my tried and true gambling rules.

Tennessee Titans +4 1/2 at Houston Texans

Losing J.J. Watt is not enough for me to ordinarily select the Titans in this spot, but, the overwhelming news coverage about the Texans losing J.J. Watt might just be.  That and the fact that the Texans offensive line is allowing just pure abuse of Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller.

New England Patriots -7 v. Buffalo Bills

Does anyone doubt Belichek at this point?  He does wonders with his squad, and Buffalo can be contained on offense. Plus, Brissett and/or Garappolo are going to want to impress in the last game before the Return of the Mack.

New York Jets -1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle seemingly found themselves last week, and Ryan PickSixTrick through 6 interceptions.  Everything about this game screams to take the Seahawks and the (albeit small) points.  However, three gambling rules are at play: (1) Don't pick road favorites; (2) West coast team travelling east and playing the early game; and (3) When it is too obvious, it usually is.

Cleveland Browns + 7 1/2 at Washington Racists

Washington does not look to be playing very well, and they are incredibly one-dimensional with no running game.  Cleveland is playing pretty horrible, but nowhere near as horrible as you would have thought.  They play hard, and if it wasn't for a bad game by a brand new kicker (he arrived the day before last week's game), they would have beaten the Dolphins. I'll take the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Denver Broncos
If I were to choose a road favorite this week, other than Seattle, of course, Denver would have been it.  But no, I am playing things straight up, and letting the rules even things out.  Now, this does not mean I expect Tampa to win this game, but, perhaps a late scrambling touchdown to cover.

Los Angeles Rams + 7 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Yeah, I cannot explain the Los Angeles Rams either, but they are 2-1, seem to be playing pretty good defense, and are getting more than a touchdown.  The Cardinals offense could be prolific, is just pretty good right now, and may not find their groove against L.A.  Spread should be closer to 4 1/2 or 5.

San Diego Chargers -3 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints
Words cannot express just how bad this Saints defense is.  San Diego should score at will.  Of course the problem is so can New Orleans.  Just not as easily as they used to be able to do.

San Francisco 49ers + 1 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
I cannot believe I am picking this one, but I feel compelled to follow the rules no matter what.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Pittsburgh played their worst game of the season last week, but they get the return of Le'Veon Bell this week.  That alone will be enough to defeat a tough Kansas City team.

Minnesota Vikings -4 v. New York Giants
A matchup that looks good on paper, but will not look good from the stands or through the television screen.  Picking Minnesota because that team has defied my expectations with and without Bridgewater and Peterson. Must be the defense.

Big Bet Game of the Week

New England Patriots -7 v. Buffalo Bills

Does anyone doubt Belichek at this point?  He does wonders with his squad, and Buffalo can be contained on offense. Plus, Brissett and/or Garappolo are going to want to impress in the last game before the Return of the Mack.

I would rather use my big bet on a smaller spread, but the Patriots have defeated the Bolls 28 of the last 32 times the teams have met since 2000.  That is a pretty solid record.

Last Week's Record:  6-10
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 23-24-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($665)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($520)

Picks of the Week

Week 3 of the NFL Season, which means week 3 of my picks.  Hopefully I have learned some things about a few of the teams.  Also, I don't feel like doing much analysis due to the Jose Fernandez news.  So, I am just going to type this our while wearing  my Fernandez jersey.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

New England Patriots -1 v. Houston Texans

Belichick at home on a short week.  Now, I didn't expect what occurred, though.

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
Yes, I am taking a road favorite, and a west coast team playing the early game on the east coast.  Both of those rules tell me to take Buffalo.  However, they are just that bad.

Carolina Panthers -7 v. Minnesota Vikings
First no Bridgewater, but Sam Bradford played well.  Now, no Adrian Peterson, and only Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata to replace him.  That will not work, as Cam Newton is rekindling his connections with Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen is the best tight end in the game right now.

Denver Broncos +4 at Cincinnati Bengals
I would not be shocked if Cincinnati won this game, but I do not foresee Denver's defense giving up enough points that Cincinnati covers the spread.

Detroit Lions +6 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
As every sportscaster/reporter has noted all week, Aaron Rodgers has not played like Aaron Rodgers in a long time.  But, Matt Stafford has.

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 v. Baltimore Ravens

I am hoping that the egg Jacksonville laid last week was an anomaly, and that they turn it around this week.  Mike Wallace is looking like Mike Wallace was supposed to look for the Dolphins.  If Chris Ivory comes back to run, the Jaguars should have enough balance on offense to beat the Ravens.

Cleveland Browns +9 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

That is just a big number for a team that is playing with a lot of spirit.  Who knows, Cody Kessler may actually be the QB Cleveland has been searching for.  Ok, maybe not, but I see the Dolphins winning by a touchdown.

New York Giants -3 v. Washington Racists

Washington is horrible.  The Giants, well, they aren't horrible.

Oakland Raiders -1 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Tennessee surprised me against Detroit last week, but I do not expect them to win against two quality opponents in a row.  Although Oakland is a road favorite and a west coast team heading east, Nashville is in the central time zone, not the east, and 1 1/2 points is not that much of a favorite.

San Francisco 49ers +9 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks offense has been less than prolific against the Dolphins and Rams, so it might be hard for them to cover this spread, regardless of whether they win or not.  The 49ers have united behind Colin Kaepernick AND Blaine Gabbert, and they keep it close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams played great defense last week, but Seattle hasn't exactly been lighting things up.  Jameis Winston shoulders more of an offensive burden with Doug Martin's injury, and he will be up to the challenge.

Indianapolis Colts pick 'em v. San Diego Chargers

I have been saying for two weeks that the Colts are not going to make the playoffs.  Why do I pick them in this game?  The Chargers loss of Danny Woodhead, who does so many things for their offense, may be more of a loss than Keenan Allen, who is also out.  Plus, it's football and weird things happen.

New York Jets +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Brandon Marshall is playing today, although he might be on a snap-count.  Nevertheless, I think the Jets score just enough against the Cheifs defense to win outright by a field goal, so I will take the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
What the hell, I have already taken two road favorites.  Might as well make it 3.

Chicago Bears + 6 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

No, the Bears will not win as they quickly try to prepare DeShaun Watson to be their next quarterback, but they keep it within a touchdown.

Atlanta Falcons +2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Atlanta's offense is rolling, as they are first in passing yards and second in total yards.  New Orleans is 30th in passing defense and 31st in total defense.  And I get points?

Big Bet Game of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams played great defense last week, but Seattle hasn't exactly been lighting things up.  Jameis Winston shoulders more of an offensive burden with Doug Martin's injury, and he will be up to the challenge.  At home, giving up only a few points and they need to make a statement - all good reasons for me to pick the Buccaneers this year.

Last Week's Record:  7-8-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 17-14-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($30)

Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $145

Picks of the Week

Week 2 of the NFL Season, which means week 2 of my picks.  A good start to my season, going 10-6 last week.  I hope to keep that momentum moving forward, and perhaps be more successful on my guaranteed pick.  A couple of notes, I reviewed last week's picks and I had listed the Jaguars at -4 1/2 against the Packers.  Of course that was supposed to be + 4 1/2.  Also, I watched the Thursday game with my buddy Glen, and I posted my selection, "Jets +1?!" on Facebook prior to kickoff.  This means I took the Jets, but was not happy about it.  Turns out, I was happy about it.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

New York Jets +1 at Buffalo Bills

Despite all of the statistics that showed how much the Ryan brothers own Ryan Fitzpatrick, a lot of that data came when Rex was the coach - and thus had at his disposal - the Jets defense when Fitzpatrick was toiling in Buffalo.  This time, Fitzpatrick has Matt Forte.  Let's not forget how bad Buffalo looked in week 1.

Carolina Panthers +13 v. San Francisco 49ers
I hate, HATE, that I am giving up virtually 2 touchdowns this early in the season before we get a really good feel of all of the teams.  But, San Francisco played the absolute latest game they could last week (the second Monday Night Football game starting around 10:00 p.m. Eastern), and they travel east to play the earliest of games this week.

Baltimore Ravens -5 at Cleveland Browns
I hate, HATE, giving up points on the road (the dreaded road favorite), but this Cleveland team is not good, super young (14 rookies!) and lost their starting quarterback last week.  The Ravens get a gift of schedule starting with Buffalo and Cleveland.

Detroit Lions -6 v. Tennessee Titans
The Lions looked good on the road against Indianapolis, whereas they now get to host the troubled Titans, who looked downright pedestrian against Minnesota.  Matt Stafford looked great without Calvin Johnson, spreading the ball around to everybody, with 6 receivers having at least 3 catches, and 8 receivers total catching balls in the game.

Kansas City Chiefs +1 at Houston Texans
It may take me a while to determine exactly what we have with Houston, as they seemed like two completely different teams last week against the Bears.  The same could be said about the Chiefs, except they are a more known quality, with an amazing team defense and a steady Alex Smith.  If the Chiefs can get to Brock Osweiler, this is a solid bet.

Miami Dolphins +6 at New England Patriots

This pick is completely counterintuitive for me, and I may rue the day that I made it, but, despite how impressive the Patriots looked against Arizona and how great a coach Bill Belichick is, but, the Dolphins played great defense against the Seahawks, and except for a dropped pass by Kenny Stills is the likely winner.  Not sure the Dolphins win this game, but should play within a touchdown.

New Orleans Saints +4 at New York Giants

The Giants defeated a tough Cowboys team last week in a game that was completely devoid of big plays.  The Saints lived on big plays last week in a loss to the Raiders.  I suspect that the Saints will make 1 or 2 big plays to at least cover this spread.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Boy did Pittsburgh look impressive last week, but I suspect that part of that display was due to the ability - or lack thereof - of their opponent, the Washington Redskins.  In a close divisional battle, I will usually take the points.  Plus, all three games last year between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh were won by the visiting team.

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Washington Redskins

Boy did the Redskins look awful last week, but a large part of that could be attributed to playing the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Cowboys defense could be exactly what aids an ailing run defense.  What could also help the Redskins inept rushing offense is finding a running back that was more than a backup in college (I am looking at you Matt Jones and Chris Thompson).  Prescott looks like he could be really good, and if I am Josh Norman, I am not looking forward to playing Dez Bryant (oh wait, he probably won't).  Kirk Cousins should hit on a big play or two to DeSean Jackson.  With all of these thoughts, and the fact that this is a rivalry game, I'll take the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Arizona Cardinals

Do not be surprised if this turns out to be the best game of the weekend.  Jameis Winston is the real deal, and he spreads the ball around without just focusing on his star receiver Mike Evans.  This strategy was successfully used by the Patriots last week.  Arizona's offense can be prolific, but the linebacking corps of the Bucs, led by Lavonte David, is awesome.  I expect a great, close game.

Los Angeles Rams +6 v. Seattle Seahawks
This is my least favorite selection on the board.  But, I  just cannot select a second road favorite (see Baltimore v. Cleveland), and the Rams did defeat the Seahawks not once, but twice last year.  This sure does seem to be a much worse Rams team, but they still have some All-Pro players on defense, and Seattle did not look impressive against the Dolphins.  I will say that the Rams score a late touchdown to lose 28-24.

Denver Broncos -6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

I said last week that I did not think the Colts were going to be a playoff team.  The Broncos looked phenomenal against the Panthers.  Yes, the Colts scored lots of points last week against the Lions, but this Broncos defense is much more stout than the Lions defense.

Atlanta Falcons + 4 1/2 at Oakland Raiders

I am completely on the Raiders bandwagon, and I still feel that they can win this game.  However, the defense gave up too many big plays to the Saints, and the Saints do not have Julio Jones.  For that reason I look for the Falcons to cover this spread, and possibly win outright.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at San Diego Chargers
I have no idea what happened with San Diego last week against the Chiefs, as the Chargers looked like world beaters in the first half, and like beaten dogs the second.  Does Keenan Allen mean that much?  Perhaps.  The Jaguars played the Packers tough, even without any semblance of a running game.  It would appear to me that Chris Ivory will become the starting running back, once healthy, and that could make quite a bit of difference.  Can Travis Benjamin step in to fill Keenan Allen's shoes?  Probably not this soon.

Green Bay Packers -2 at Minnesota Vikings

OK, so here is my second road favorite, but the Vikings will be starting their second quarterback - Sam Bradford - in two games.  The Packers already won one game on the road - at Jacksonville - and the Vikings still looked lackluster despite their victory against Tennessee last week.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Carson Wentz looked good in his first game, but that was against Cleveland.  The Bears defense looked much better, led by free agent middle linebackers, Jerrell Freeman with 17 total tackles and Danny Trevathan with 11 total tackles, plus a sack.  The Bears should harass Wentz enough to give the Bears the victory.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Denver Broncos -6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

I said last week that I did not think the Colts were going to be a playoff team.  The Broncos looked phenomenal against the Panthers.  Yes, the Colts scored lots of points last week against the Lions, but this Broncos defense is much more stout than the Lions defense.
I generally like to get points for the Big Bet, but the fact that Denver's defense could neutralize Indianapolis's offense, coupled with the fact that CJ Anderson looks really healthy to start the season gives me confidence in the Broncos this week.

Last Week's Record:  10-6
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 10-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 0-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $175
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $175

Picks of the Week

It is back.  The NFL is back.  I know, it started Thursday, but I lost that pick so nobody can accuse me of cheating.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Carolina Panthers -3 at Denver Brocncos

The Panthers want to prove themselves I said.  Trevor Siemian is untested, I told myself.  What I should have said was, "Don't take road favorites".

Chicago Bears +6 at Houston Texans
No, this is not a homer pick.  I just don't think that Brock Osweiler is ready to lead a team to a 7 point victory when J.J. Watt is hampered by injuries and likely not 100%.  The Bears signing of Josh Sitton from the Packers was huge.

Tampa Bay +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
This is the year of the Winston, as Jameis starts strong, opening up a punishing fourth quarter rushing game by Doug Martin.  Atlanta - once again - is all flash an no substance.

Buffalo Bills +3 at Baltimore Ravens
Tyrod Taylor is bette than most people think, and I think the Ravens will be battling for the number 1 pick this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 4 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
Perhaps I learned my lesson about selecting road favorites.  I think the Jaguars look like they are going to good this year, in essence getting two first round picks with Dante Fowler returning to action.  Chris Ivory will provide some punishing runs.

Kansas City Chiefs -5 1/2 v. San Diego Chargers

Honestly, I have no idea what we have in the Chargers.  With the Chiefs, we have an incredible defense and a steady Alex Smith.

Oakland Raiders +1 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Since New Orleans is in the central time zone, I don't have to worry about the west coast team playing the early game in the east coast theory, so I can take points and bet on the up-and-coming Raiders offense.  I think Amari Cooper has a big game torching the Saints secondary.

New York Jets +2 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Ryan Fitzpatrick proves he should have been the glimmer in the Jets' management eyes the entire time.  Plus, home team getting points.  The Bengals are down to only A.J. Green as returning receivers, so it may take a few games for the offense to start gelling.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

I almost went the other way with this one, but it may be a few weeks too early to start picking them to cover, as they kept all 14 of their draft picks on the roster.  Not sold on Philadelphia either, but they may just be happy that Chip Kelly is gone.

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Ladies and gentlemen, Shaun Hill is getting 2 1/2 points.  SHAUN HILL?!

Miami Dolphins +10 at Seattle Seahawks

Way too early in the season to start giving double digit spreads.  If Arian Foster can still run, this should be a close loss for the Dolphins.

New York Giants pick 'em at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas was -22 in turnover margin last year (last in the NFL) and now they are starting a rookie quarterback.  Although Prescott is talented, he will make mistakes.  Eli is a solid veteran, but even with an unsteady running game, he has ODB!

Detroit Lions +3 at Indianapolis Colts

I feel the Colts are a bit overrated, and may not make the playoffs this year.  Detroit's offense was one of the league's best the last quarter of the season last year, and look to continue that production.

Arizona Cardinals -7 v. New England Patriots

Arizona has both one of the league's most explosive offenses, and one of the most staunchest defenses.  New England has Jimmy Garropolo and only 4 receivers on the entire roster.

Washington Redskins +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I will take points at home, and the Redskins have the making of a really nice offense with Kirk Cousins, Matt Jones - if he can hold onto the ball - and a revitalized DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon out wide, and Jordan Reed up the middle.  If their defense can finish middle of the road or better, this team can win their division.

San Francisco 49ers +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Even though Blaine Gabbert is starting, this team is coalescing around Colin Kaepernick.  Expect a healthy dose of Carlos Hyde.  The Rams need an identity, and you would think it would revolve around Todd Gurley - and it ultimately may - but we need to see it.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Ladies and gentlemen, Shaun Hill is getting 2 1/2 points.  SHAUN HILL?!

I really was not sure which game to pick here, but I did find a home team getting points, and going against Shaun Hill.  I expect Mariota to have an excellent season this year, especially with a more potent running game than last year.

Last Week's Record:  0-0
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-0
Year-to-Date Record: 0-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $0
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $0

Are you Ready for some Football?!

It is that time of the year again, time for the start of college football.  We have already had a fascinating start to the season with 6 ranked teams losing (and a record-breaking 7th to fall tonight, as FSU and Ole Miss - two ranked teams - faceoff in Orlando).  What would the start of college football be without a preseason All-American list? Once again, I am here to give you my preseason All-Americans. As usual, there will be more than 11 on each side, to account for the different types of formations (spread, three receiver set, 4-3, 3-4, etc). I explain some of my picks, while others I do not. Why? Because I can.  (Starters in capitals).

Offense

QB - DESHAUN WATSON, Clemson; Pat Mahomes, Texas Tech; Greg Ward, Jr.,  Houston  - Watson is one of the easiest selections on this list.  Mahomes might be the biggest and strongest quarterback that Kliff Kingsbury has ever had at Texas Tech and Greg Ward, Jr. is the best quarterback nobody (except Florida State) has heard of.

RB - LEONARD FOURNETTE, LSU; CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY, Stanford; Dalvin Cook, Florida State; Nick Chubb, Georgia; Samaje Perine, Oklahoma - The returning talent of this group is absolutely astounding.  Any of these five could be the load-carrying feature on this all-star team.  I start McCaffrey because he blocks, and catches better than Cook.

WR - JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER, USC; MIKE WILLIAMS, Clemson; Christian Kirk, Texas A & M; Calvin Ridley, Alabama; Corey Davis, Western Michigan - Nowhere near the names of the other positions (especially running back), but this is an exciting group of receivers.  Kirk is a threat to score every single time he touches the football.

TE - O.J. HOWARD, Alabama; Jake Butt, Michigan - Howard makes his third straight appearance on this list.  Although Butt will likely have better stats because of the overall talent of the skill positions at Alabama, Howard is a beast.

OL - CAM ROBINSON, Alabama (T); RODERICK JOHNSON, FSU (T); PAT ELFLEIN, Ohio State (C); DAN FEENEY, Indiana (G);  DORIAN JOHNSON, Pittsburgh (G); Zach Banner, USC; Conor McDermott, USC; Quenton Nelson, Notre Dame - Elflein returns from last year's All-American team, and Feeney is one reason why Jordan Howard was such an effective runner at Indiana last year.  Robinson and Johnson are the prototypical college star tackles.

Defense

DE - MYLES GARRETT, Texas A & M; JONATHAN ALLEN, Alabama; Charles Harris, Missouri - Between Garrett and Allen, we could see 50+ tackles for loss this  year.  Harris completes the SEC trifecta on the outside of the line.

DT - MALIK MCDOWELL, Michigan State; CARLOS WATKINS, Clemson; Lowell Lotulelei, Utah - Not just big space eaters, McDowell and Watkins both make plays from the interior of the defense.

LB - RAEKWON MCMILLAN, Ohio State, REUBEN FOSTER, Alabama; DEVONTE FIELDS, Louisville; Anthoney Walker, Northwestern; Jabrill Peppers, Michigan; Tim Williams, Alabama - With McMillan on the field, you better diversify your plays, bitches.  Foster is a tackling machine, and Fields is the type of playmaker that has moved Louisville into the upper echelon of college football programs.

CB - DESMOND KING, Iowa; JOURDAN LEWIS, Michigan; Jalen Tabor, Florida - Desmond King won the Jim Thorpe award as the nation's best defensive back last year, with 8 interceptions.  Lewis had 20 passes defensed.  Tabor is the second consecutive Jalen to make this list.

S - DERWIN JAMES, Florida State; BUDDA BAKER, Washington; Jamal Adams, LSU - JAMES is the heir apparent to Jaylen Ramsey, while Baker returns after a phenomenal year last year for the Huskies.

Special Teams

K - ANDY PHILLIPS, Utah - Phillips was on the team last year (behind Aguayo) for no reason that I just thought we should have three kickers on the team (kickers means kickers and punters).

P - JK SCOTT, Alabama - A booming punter who grew 1 1/2 inches this offseason.

KR/PR - EVAN BERRY, Tennessee - Berry led the nation in kickoff return average last  year, beating second place by almost 5 whole yards per return.  No backups needed because the two Christians can also return very well (McCaffrey and Kirk - not a religious reference).