Picks of the Week

On vacation so I don't really have time to analyze my own picks, but it is week 17 so who knows who is actually going to play and for how long anyway.  Just going to wing it, before I have to pack and check out of my Air-BnB in Nashville. Place is hopping for tonight's game, though.  Lots of Colts fans in town.  Besides, all of the normal and usual betting rules are thrown out the window this week as each team will be playing with different motivations (qualify for the playoffs, don't get hurt for the playoffs, don't put too much on film for the playoffs, play backups to see if they are ready for next year, throw in the towel, etc.).

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Miami Dolphins +5 at Buffalo Bills

Green Bay Packers -8 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Houston Texans -7 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

New York Jets +13 1/2 at New England Patriots

New Orleans -7 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers 

New York Giants -7 v. Dallas Cowboys

Atlanta Falcons -2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Minnesota Vikings -6 v. Chicago Bears

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Oakland Raiders +14 at Kansas City Chiefs

Pittsburgh Steelers -13 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Philadelphia Eagles -6 1/2 at Washington Racists

Los Angeles Chargers -7 at Denver Broncos

San Francisco 49ers + 10 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Arizona Cardinals +13 at Seattle Seahawks

Indianapolis Colts -4 at Tennessee Titans

Big Bet
New York Jets +13 1/2 at New England Patriots

The Jets have been playing well since Sam Darnold's return, and this is not the normal Patriots.  The Patriots may still win and secure a playoff bye, but this should not be a runaway victory for them.

Last Week's Record:  7-8-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  118-111-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($30)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($215)

Picks of the Week

So I took a big old fashioned hammering last week, but I don't care.  Why is that?  Because the Chicago Bears clinched the NFC North, knocked the Packers out of the playoffs, and moved to within 1 game of having a first round playoff bye.  I will take that!  Now, I just have to make up for the losses this week!

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans -11 v. Washington Racists
I do not like this spread, but I do like taking the home team on short weeks.  Washington's offensive line is mightily banged up, so I expect Jurrell Casey to have a monster game along the defensive line.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 v. Baltimore Ravens
Once again taking the home team on a short week.  I just don't think that Baltimore has enough offense to keep up with the Chargers, despite the fact that they have more than enough defense (1st overall, 1st in points allowed, 3rd in passing defense ad 3rd in rushing defense).  Los Angeles has too many weapons, starting with Philip Rivers.

Atlanta Falcons -3 at Carolina Panthers
Taylor Heinicke?  Old Dominion isn't exactly known for producing star NFL quarterbacks.

Cleveland Browns -9 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Because why not?  The Browns have played some exciting football, and Cincinnati has not, at least not with Jeff Driskel at quarterback.  Cleveland's porous defense will not be as exposed going against Jeff Driskel.

Dallas Cowboys -7 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Would you believe it if I told you that Tampa Bay Buccaneers had the 28th rushing attack in the league?  Of course you would - they are horrible.  Being a one-dimensional offense is going to allow the Cowboys front seven to tee off on Winston.

Minnesota Vikings -6 at Detroit Lions
The Lions literally don't do anything well.  Minnesota's offense has been spectacular since they fired OC Mike DeFilippo.  Thanks for mentioning this last week Barsky.

New York Giants +9 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
This spread is way too big to give to a team that has shown some life as of late.

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Is the Cody Kessler era over yet?

Buffalo Bills +12 1/2 at New England Patriots
The one thing Blake Bortles taught us last year is that a quarterback than knows how to scramble can create havoc with the Patriots defense.

New York Jets +3 v. Green Bay Packers
The Jets have actually been playing fairly well since Sam Darnold's return.  They lost by a touchdown last week to a much better Houston Texans team, and they are at home against the Packers.  I will take the points.

Houston Texans +1 at Philadelphia Eagles
Houston's defense.  Yes, it seems like the magic that is Nick Foles has returned, but the Rams defense has not been playing particularly well this week.  Houston's is.

Chicago Bears -4 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers
I already have enough road favorites, so why not take another.  A lot at stake for the Bears in this game as they have the opportunity to secure a first round playoff bye with two wins (and a Rams loss).

Arizona Cardinals +14 v. Los Angeles Rams
So, it looks the Rams will actually get home field advantage and nothing about Arizona's play says they should stay in this game.  So, perhaps they lose by 13.

Seattle Seahawks +1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
In Russell Wilson we trust and simply, Seattle needs this win more than Kansas City does.  Seattle keeps Kansas City's possessions low with an effective running game and takes a step closer to the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers +6 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
At this stage, New Orleans can practically coast into the playoffs.  Of course they want to guarantee home field for the entire playoffs, which they can do with one win or one Rams loss and one Bears loss, but that doesn't mean the Saints aren't already looking ahead.  Steelers keep this one close.

Denver Broncos -3 at Oakland Raiders
Might as well end the week with another road favorite.

Big Bet
Atlanta Falcons -3 at Carolina Panthers
Taylor Heinicke?  Old Dominion isn't exactly known for producing star NFL quarterbacks.
I hate picking road teams for the Big Bet, especially road favorites, but nobody even knows who is quarterbacking for the Panthers.  And, perhaps Atlanta re-discovered its offense last week.

Last Week's Record:  5-10-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  111-103-10
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($765)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($185)

Picks of the Week

A great, and I mean great, week last week.  Of course as odds will have it, not off to a good start this weekend.  Damn Saturday games.  So, since I am a bit behind today, no analysis, just picks..

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Houston Texans -7 at New York Jets

Denver Broncos -1 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Green Bay Packers +5 1/2 at Chicago Bears
Ok, some analysis.  I am picking Green  Bay because these games are usually close, and if the Bears don't win, at least I can salvage a good bet here.

Arizona Cardinals +9 at Atlanta Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 8 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Oakland Raiders +3 at Cincinnati Bengals

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Indianapolis Colts

Washington Racists +7 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Miami Dolphins +7 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

New York Giants +1 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 1/2 v. New England Patriots

Philadelphia Eagles +13 at Los Angeles Rams

New Orleans Saints -6 at Carolina Panthers

Big Bet
Dallas Cowboys +3 at Indianapolis Colts
Dallas is on a nice little run, arguably have the better talent in this game, and they are getting poitns!

Last Week's Record:  10-6
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  106-93-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $490
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $580

Picks of the Week

A winning week last week, brings me back into the black for the season.  As we head down the stretch in the final quarter of the season, time to capitalize on everything we have learned about the teams this year to date.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans -5 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Once again, taking the home team on a short week pays off, but this time with the added bonus of doing it against a Jacksonville team "led" by Cody Kessler.

Buffalo Bills -4 1/2 v. New York Jets
Buffalo has basically been playing with Josh Allen behind center, even if he is doing it with his legs much more than his arm.  The Jets and their rookie quarterback have yet to jell this season.

Carolina Panthers -1 at Cleveland Browns
I really wanted to take Cleveland here, but Carolina really needs this win to get back in the playoff hunt, and to end their four-game losing streak.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
To be fair, nobody has any idea how the Packers are going to react to the firing of head coach Mike McCarthy and Assistant Head Coach/Defensive Coordinator Winston Moss after last week's loss.  So, my guess is that Aaron Rodgers tries to validate the firing with a huge game.

Indianapolis Colts +4 at Houston Texans
Can the Texans win their 10th game in a row?  Of course they can, and I suspect they will.  But, Indianapolis is going to make this tough for them and will score quite a bit of points themselves.  Maybe a repeat of week 4's 37-34 Texans win will cover the spread.  Of course, if the Colts break the winning streak then they will win this beat too, so I am going Colts.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
The Ravens defense is first overall in total defense and points allowed, second in passing defense and third in rushing defense.  I am not saying they will stop the Chiefs, but they will make it harder for them to score.  Plus, with the newly found rushing attack behind rookies Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson, the Ravens will try to control the clock.

Miami Dolphins +9 v. New England Patriots
For some reason, the Dolphins always have a trick or two for the Patriots when they come to Miami.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 v. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans keeps cruising, but the intra-divisional rival Tampa Bay makes it tough for the Saints.  Do not expect a repeat of the week 1 Bucs victory, especially with Ryan Fitzpatrick on the bench.

New York Giants -3 at Washington Racists
I feel like their is an opportunity for me or my friends to play quarterback for Washington this year.  Marcus, are you available if they need you?

Los Angeles Chargers  -15 v. Cincinnati Bengals
This is a ridiculous line, and nobody in their right mind would ever select any NFL giving 15 points ... unless they were playing against Jeff Driskel.  Can somebody say collusion?

Denver Broncos -3 at San Francisco 49ers
I hate taking road favorites, but I have to do so here.  The 49ers are going nowhere fast, and Denver, believe it or not, has an opportunity to still make the playoffs.

Detroit Lions -3 at Arizona Cardinals
Detroit is not good, but I feel that they at least give themselves opportunities to win.  Despite being the proverbial straw that broke Mike McCarthy's back, Arizona has not shown us much of anything this year.  I'll take Detroit.

Dallas Cowboys -3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Both of these teams would love to knock the other one down a peg.  A win by Philadelphia puts them in a tie for first in the NFC East.  A win by Dallas virtually assures Philadelphia of missing the playoffs.  Plus, Dallas has been a completely different team since the acquisition of Amari Cooper.  Philadelphia is not the same team as last year's Super Bowl winners.

Pittsburgh Steelers -10 at Oakland Raiders
Is it possible that Roethlisberger throws for 500 yards?  I think so.  In the past 5 years, double digit favorites have covered almost 60% of the time, so I will take a chance on the Steelers (as well as the Chargers).

Chicago Bears +3 v. Los Angeles Rams
Just a gut feeling.Not saying the Bears win, but this game is shaping up to be very interesting.  We all know about the Rams offense (2nd in points, 2nd overall, 4th in rushing and passing), but the Rams defense has been markedly pedestrian, (17th in passing defense, 18th in rushing defense and total defense, and 19th in points allowed).  They will give up yards and points to Chicago.  Chicago is 5th in points scored and 5th in points allowed.  They are second in rush defense, so Todd Gurley might find yards tough to come by in Soldier Field.

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Minnesota Vikings
An incredibly important NFC battle for both squads trying to jockey for widcard position.  For those who have not been paying attention, Russell Wilson has been playing out-of-his-mind!!!!  I'll take Russell Wilson.

Big Bet
New York Giants -3 at Washington Racists
I feel like their is an opportunity for me or my friends to play quarterback for Washington this year.  Marcus, are you available if they need you?

Saquon Barkley is coming into his own, so even though the Giants are on the road and giving up points, that shouldn't be a problem against..... who is it again?  Oh yeah ... Mark Sanchez.

Last Week's Record:  9-7
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  96-87-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $280
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $90

NFL Picks of the Week

Basically even last week, which is a shame because at one point I was 5-2 in the early games midway through the fourth quarter.  Then, in the span of less than a minute, the scores in the early games went from 5-2 in my favor to 2-5 against, and I almost never recovered.  A good start to this week with the Dallas victory over New Orlenas.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Dallas Cowboys +7 v. New Orleans
Once again, taking the home team on a short week pays off.

New York Giants +4 v. Chicago Bears
Saquon Barkley is laboring in turmoil on a bad team, that gets to play against Chase Daniel as quarterback.  I just think that with Chicago's defense, this ends up being a low-scoring, close game.

Baltimore Ravens +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore wins, and Joe Flacco never starts for the Ravens again.

Denver Broncos -4 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
You should know by now my hatred for road favorites, but if this Denver teams gets on a run they could make the playoffs, and more importantly, Jeff Driskel is starting for the Bengals.  Yes, that Jeff Driskell.  The one run out of the University of Florida for not being a good quarterback.

Detroit Lions +10 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
Now I am not going crazy here, I do not expect a Lions victory.  But, we do have the west coast team travelling west playing the early kickoff, so I expect the Rams to be a little sluggish, as history suggests.  Lions score twice late for a back door cover.

Arizona Cardinals +13 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Arizona's offense is remarkably consistent.  They rank 32nd in total offense, rush offense, pass offense, points scored and 3rd down conversion %.  Why on earth would I pick them?  Green Bay is struggling a bit, and it seems as if it is inevitable that Mike McCarthy is fired after the season.  Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers, but Arizona does have the 4th best pass defense.  Green Bay wins, but maybe 28-17.

Cleveland Browns +6 at Houston Texans
The Browns have been playing some tough football, and although I do believe Houston wins this game, Cleveland keeps it close.  They have the 8th best rushing offense, and if Baker Mayfield woke up dangerous, Houston better be ready to play.  Houston meanwhile is 4th in rushing offense, so expect both teams to try to control the clock, which should keep the scoring down, and close.

Indianapolis Colts -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cody Kessler is starting.  Colin Kaepernick's collusion case gets stronger and stronger.

Buffalo Bills +3 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
Is it just me or has Miami been more lackadaisackal since Tannehill returned?  Buffalo with Josh Allen is at least playing like they care and are trying to win.

Carolina Panthers -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Awful for me to pick a road favorite in a divisional game especially, but Carolina need this win, whereas Tampa needs to finish up with Jameis Winston and find a new "quarterback of the future".

Oakland Raiders +14 v. Kansas City Chiefs
I hate this pick.  I hate it, I hate it.  But, with the turmoil in Kansas City surrounding Kareem Hunt's dismissal, I have to take the 2 touchdown spread.  Give me those points!

New York Jets +10 at Tennessee Titans
So many double digit spreads this week.  The Jets defense is second in 3rd down conversion percentage, so if that keeps up, Tennessee won't be able to sustain drives.  Without sustained drives, less points.  I will take 10.

Minnesota Vikings -5 at New England Patriots
I will have to take a flyer on this one, as everything except Minnesota's passing game is telling me to take New England.  The Patriots are 25th in pass defense, and the Vikings are 6th in passing offense.  At the very least, once again, I root for a close game.

San Francisco 49ers +10 at Seattle Seahawks
I am done with not trusting Russell Wilson.  With him  behind center, Seattle will make the playoffs this year, and with a win today go to 7-5.  However, 10 points in a divisional game is once again too much for me to give.  San Francisco's defense is a respectable 11th overall, and 10th in rushing defense.  That should keep it close enough to cover.

Los Angeles Chargers +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Best game of the day.  I am taking the points and I hope this is a good old fashioned shootout, despite the fact that it is the 6th and 7th best overall defenses.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Washington Racists
There is no real reason for the Eagles to be favored by 6.  They have not played in any way shape or form like they have earned the right to give up 6 points.  Everything about this game says to pick Washington, which is why I am going with the Eagles.

Big Bet
Denver Broncos -4 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
You should know by now my hatred for road favorites, but if this Denver teams gets on a run they could make the playoffs, and more importantly, Jeff Driskel is starting for the Bengals.  Yes, that Jeff Driskell.  The one run out of the University of Florida for not being a good quarterback.

For a big bet, I always tell myself to try to pick a home team, but if you pick a visiting team, make sure you are getting points.  What I am getting is Jeff Driskel - so that counts.

Last Week's Record:  7-8
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  87-80-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($30)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($190)

Picks of the Week

Wow - Last week was a complete annihilation, eliminating all of my gains for the previous three weeks.  Looks like a need a comeback week, and 2 for 3 on Thanksgiving is a good start.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +3 v. Chicago Bears
Chicago is better, but the are the visiting team on a short week, a road favorite in an intra-divisional game, and starting a backup quarterback.  I took the points at home, and I would do so again.

Dallas Cowboys -7 v. Washington Racists
The contra scenario to the above.  I took the better team at home in an intradivisional game when the opponent was away on a short week starting a backup quarterback.

New Orleans Saints -12 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
If this game was Sunday, I doubt that I would have taken New Orleans, but on a short week ...

Oakland Raiders +12 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens win this easily, I just don't think they score enough to cover this spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Buffalo Bills
Hopefully the teams performance against the Steelers last week left a bad taste in the Jaguars mouth.  I am expecting retribution against Buffalo today.

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks
Two teams fighting for their playoff life.  Carolina at home, and hosting the early game against a team from the Pacific time zone.  Carolina prevails, and covers.

Cleveland Browns +1 at Cincinnati Bengals
I just feel that Cleveland is ready to turn the corner, and a Cincinnati team struggling on offense (27th in total offense, though 11th in points) AND defense (last in total defense, rush defense and third down percentage; 31st in pass defense and points allowed), is ripe for a home loss.

New York Jets +12 1/2 v. New England Patriots
Yes Tom Brady is playing, but how hurt is he, really?  An improving Jets defense should keep this game close, enough.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 v. New York Giants
My gut really told me to take the Giants and the points here today, but the Giants defense really is not stopping anyone.  Coupled with the fact that despite Saquon Barkley, New York does not run the ball particularly well (29th in rushing offense).  Yes I know they hit Barkley out of the backfield, but including that and Beckham, they are still only 13th in passing offense.  For Philadelphia, it is now or never to go on a run to make the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
I originally took San Francisco here, but they are a west coast team travelling east for the early game, and I just couldn't do it.  Tampa in an ugly win.

Arizona Cardinals +14 at Los Angeles Chargers
Only because the spread is so high.  Arizona is 4th in passing defense and adequate (17th overall) i n total defense, so this might keep things close enough.

Miami Dolphins +9 at Indianapolis Colts
Nothing about the two teams' years says that Miami should win this game, and Indianapolis does score a ton of points (5th in the NFL), but with Drake and Gore running the football, the score stays close enough for Miami to cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Denver Broncos
I have to take Antonio Brown at his word that he is playing this week despite having/not having the sickle-cell trait.  Pittsburgh's defense is much, much better than at the beginning of the season, and their offense is 4th in points and 5th in total defense.

Minnesota Vikings -3 v. Green Bay Packers
Both of the teams need a win to boost any chance at the playoffs.  Minnesota's defense wins this for the Vikings.

Houston Texans -4 v. Tennessee Titans
Houston lost in week 1 to Tennessee, but this is not that same team as DeShaun Watson has some more experience under his belt post-injury.  Texans defense is very stout (5th in points allowed, 6th in rush defense, 7th in total defense and 8th in pass defense) whereas the Titans' offense is not (30th in total offense and passing offense and 28th in points scored).

Big Bet
Houston Texans -4 v. Tennessee Titans
Houston lost in week 1 to Tennessee, but this is not that same team as DeShaun Watson has some more experience under his belt post-injury.  Texans defense is very stout (5th in points allowed, 6th in rush defense, 7th in total defense and 8th in pass defense) whereas the Titans' offense is not (30th in total offense and passing offense and 28th in points scored).
I hate picking my big bet on Monday night, but Houston is at home, not giving up too many points, and the night will be emotional with the recent death of their founder/owner Bob McNair.


Last Week's Record:  3-8-2
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  80-72-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($745)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($160)

Picks of the Week

Three consecutive winning weeks!!!  I know at some point that streak will end, I just hope that it isn't today.  A silly push on Thursday, but at least it was't a loss!!!

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Green Bay Packers
After last week's Carolina debacle, I am going back to following the rules, don't bet on the visiting team on a short week.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
I really have no idea who to pick in this game.  Atlanta's offense and Dallas's defense are both really good, but the other sides of the ball stink.  Usually in a situation like this I take the points, but this time I am taking the home team as Dallas is coming off an emotion intra-divisional victory.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
I think this line is too high, especially given that Lamar Jackson might make his first NFL start.  That being said, with no A.J. Green, and with a great Ravens defense, it is hard for me to see the Bengals doing much of anything offensively.  It's the old adage - defense and running game - that I am betting on here.

Carolina Panthers -4 at Detroit Lions
You should know by now that I hate taking road favorites, but the Lions are not good and Carolina is 7-1 against the spread coming off a loss.  I will take a bounce back performance.

Tennessee Titans +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
This Titans team will make life tough for somebody in the playoffs.  They start by making a run toward the top of the AFC South with a win over the Colts.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New York Giants
Both teams stink, so I will take the points.  Plus, Fitzmagic is coming off a good high from the Harvard victory over Yale yesterday at Fenway Park.  This likely means Cameron Brate scores a touchdown as well!

Houston Texans -3 at Washington Racists
Both teams are 6-3 and lead their respective divisions, but it seems like the Texans have more talent while Washington seems to be doing this courtesy of a horrible division.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
So the story comes out today that the Jaguars are open to trading Jalen Ramsey in the offseason.  On the morning of a game.  Ridiculous.

Arizona Cardinals -5 v. Oakland Raiders
Oakland is in utter disarray!

Denver Broncos +7 at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers should win this game, but it is an intra-divisional game, and I think Denver runs the ball enough to keep the game close.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
This is not last year's Philly team.  Middle of the road in total offense and defense.  Meanwhile, New Orleans is 5th in total yards, while first in points and first in rushing defense.

Chicago Bears -2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
This should be a close game and the spread reflects that.  The Bears defense leads the way (2nd in rushing defense, 3rd in 3rd down percentage and 4th in total defense and points allowed), but the offense is 5th in points scored as well .  They could use a bit more of a running game against Minnesota which is 3rd in rush defense and 5th in total defense.  However, I honestly trust Mitchell Trubisky more in a big spot than I do Kirk Cousins right now.

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Two high-flying offenses, but the Rams defense is 13th overall (10th against the run and 12th in points allowed), whereas the Chiefs defense is 29th overall (29th against the pass, 22nd against thr run and 18th in points allowed).  Given the emotional lift of all of the first responders to the California wildfires being given free tickets, I will take the Rams defense.

Big Bet
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
So the story comes out today that the Jaguars are open to trading Jalen Ramsey in the offseason.  On the morning of a game.  Ridiculous.
Ordinarily I would like to pick a home team and/or a team receiving points, but this Jalen Ramsey news is a bombshell.  What on earth is going on in that locker room.

Last Week's Record:  7-6-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  77-64-7
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $190

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $585

Picks of the Week

Two great wee\ks in a row (17-10), and although Thursday was an awful start to the week, I am confident that I can keep this winning streak going.  I have had a little more time to think about the picks today, so I sure hope that I do not overthink things, buChot what are the odds of that?

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
I hate taking the road teams on the short week, but that extra half-point sold me at a time when both teams were playing extremely well.

Chicago Bears -7 v. Detroit Lions
This is not a homer pick, I swear.  The Lions offense looked anemic even before trading Golden Tate, and they looked downright pitiful last week.  The Bears have given up 17 or less in 4 of 5 home games, and the weather is going to be cold today, which isn't good for a dome team.

New Orleans Saints -6 at Cincinnati Bengals
Sometimes you just look at a line and say, this is obvious.  Those times, you have to go the other way.  New Orleans is the obvious pick here.  But, even given that they are the obvious pick and given that road favorites tend to under-perform, the Bengals will be without their best player, A.J. Green, meaning the obvious pick, is THE pick here.

Atlanta Falcons -5 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
The Falcons offense is really clicking, especially with the emergence of Calvin Ridley as a deadly threat.  Cleveland, although playing better than the past 2 years, is still a train wreck.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is scoring in excess of 35 the past 5 games, but even Blake Bortles has feasted on the Colts defense in the past 2 years. With Fournette returning, the Colts will not win by much, if at all.

Kansas City Chiefs -16 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
This line is absolutely ridiculous, but Arizona is Arizona and they are travelling west, so why not.

Buffalo Bills +7 at New York Jets
Two new quarterbacks in Matt Barkley, yes, that Matt Barkley, and Josh McCown, yest that Josh McCown. The Bills defense should keep this game close and interesting, as they are 3rd in total defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Washington Racists
Fitzmagic!!!

Tennessee Titans +6 1/2 v. New England Patriots
Mike Vrabel keeps the game with his mentor close.

Los Angeles Chargers -10 at Oakland Raiders
Road favorite and double digit division favorites never cover, much less if they are both in one game.  But, the Raiders are a train wreck the likes that nobody except for Cleveland Browns fans have ever seen.

Miami Dolphins +10 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Just too many points, given that the Packers are mediocre in points per game and average to below average in total defense, rushing defense and scoring defense.

Seattle Seahawks +9 at Los Angeles Rams
The one thing that the Seahawks are is resilient, and although they may not win this game, they will likely play this game similar to the game against the Chargers last week, within 9.

Dallas Cowboys +7 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
This line just seems way too big for a division game in which the teams are only separated in the standings by 1 game.

San Francisco 49ers -3 v. New York Giants
Two teams with a combined record of 3-14 means a Monday Night Football game I will likely miss.

Big Bet
New Orleans Saints -6 at Cincinnati Bengals
Sometimes you just look at a line and say, this is obvious.  Those times, you have to go the other way.  New Orleans is the obvious pick here.  But, even given that they are the obvious pick and given that road favorites tend to under-perform, the Bengals will be without their best player, A.J. Green, meaning the obvious pick, is THE pick here.
No A.J. Green, and the Saints do it for Dez.

Last Week's Record:  8-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  70-58-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $400
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $395

Picks of the Week

Travelling once again this morning, so no real time to type out all of my thoughts, but last week was my best week of the year and aI hope to continue that success this week.  On to the picks ...

San Francisco 49ers + 1 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders

Buffalo Bills + 10 v. Chicago Bears

Baltimore Ravens -1 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Carolina Panthers -6 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kansas City Chiefs -8 at Cleveland Browns

Miami Dolphins -3 v. New York Jets

Detroit Lions + 4 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

Washington Racists -2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Houston Texans + 1 at Denver Broncos

Los Angeles Chargers +1 at Seattle Seahawks

Los Angeles Rams -1 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Green Bay Packers +5 1/2 at New England Patriots

Tennessee Titans +4 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Big Bet
Kansas City Chiefs -8 at Cleveland Browns
Too much recent turmoil in Cleveland.

Last Week's Record:  9-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  62-53-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $500
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($5)

Picks of the Week

Driving to the Artist Formerly Known as the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, so no real time to explain all of my picks, as I am typing these on my phone.  At least I did give them some thought agfer going over .500 last week.

On to the picks:

Houston Texans -7 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles (in London) - If someone has only watched the games in London over the past few years, that person would think Blake Bortles belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Chicago Bears -8 v. New York Jets

Carolina Panthers + 2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Detroit Lions -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Denver Broncos +9 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Washington Racists pick 'em at New York Giants

Cleveland Browns +8 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Indianapolis Colts - 3 at Oakland Raiders

San Francisco 49ers -1 at Arizona Cardinals

Green Bay Packers +9 at Los Angeles Rams

New Orleans pick 'em at Minnesota Vikings

New England Patriots - 13 1/2 at Buffalo Bills (Why not?)

Big Bet:

Washington Racists pick 'em over New York Giants

Last Week's Record:  8-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 53-48-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-5

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($25)

Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($505)

Picks of the Week

After an awful week, I am going to try to spend a bit of time analyzing my selections this week.  See if I cannot turn this around.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Denver Broncos -1 at Arizona Cardinals
I hate selecting the road teams on Thursday night (or any short week, really), but Arizona is a special type of bad this year.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans at Wembley Stadium (London)
Yes, Melvin Gordon is a late scratch, which hurts this selection, but I just didn't have enough time to process all of that, and the line-makers didn't either.  I still don't know how Tennessee has won as many games as they have.

Chicago Bears + 1 1/2 v. New England Patriots
The Patriots are better, yes, I get that.  But after the egg that Chicago laid last week at Miami, and with Allen Robinson and Khalil Mack both playing - and Rob Gronkowski not, I could see this being 31-30, or 21-20.

Indianapolis Colts -7 v. Buffalo Bills
Two weeks ago, Derek Anderson was out of football.  OUT OF FOOTBALL.  And here he is signed and starting.  You mean to tell me that Derek Anderson is better than Colin Kaepernick?

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans
I have gone back-and-forth on this game a number of times.  First, the Jaguars defense has not looked good the last couple of weeks, and could be just the remedy the Texans need to jump start their offense.  But, DeAndre Hopkins is hurt, and although will still play - and might still have a big game - they might not have enough firepower to beat the Jaguars - IF the Jaguars we know return to the field.  But then again, Blake Bortles.  Ugh.

Detroit Lions -3 at Miami Dolphins
There is no way the Lions allow two 70+ yard screen passes for touchdowns this week like Chicago gave up to Brock Osweiler, who has yet to actually throw a ball 8 yards pass the line of scrimmage.

Minnesota -3 1/2 at New York Jets 
I don't think that Isaiah Crowell can rush for that many yards against this Minnesota Vikings defense.  Not sure that the Jets can cover both Stefan Diggs AND Adam Thielen.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. Carolina Panthers
Strength versus strength:  Carolina is 4th in the NFL in rushing and Philadelphia is 2 in rush defense.  Philadelphia has so much more to offer on the other side of the ball, though.

Cleveland Browns +3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Browns, who are 5th in the NFL in rushing, have just handed the keys to rookie Nick Chubb, as they traded Carlos Hyde to the Jaguars this week.  Will be interested in seeing how, if at all, that affects the offense.  Tampa is still not very dynamic without Ryan Fitzpatrick, so I will take the points.

New Orleans Saints + 2 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
One of the two marquee games this week, with the best offense versus the best defense.  Can Joe Flacco do enough so that the defense doesn't have to stop Drew Brees?  Probably, but Drew Brees still makes just enough plays to probably win outright.

Washington Racists +1 v. Dallas Cowboys
Two good defenses, with virtually anemic offenses.  Washington is at home, and for some reason, I just think they are better.

San Francisco 49ers +9 v. Los Angeles Rams
Let's be clear, Rams win this game.but San Francisco has not been a pushover since losing Jimmy Garrapolo. I see a backdoor cover on a last minute touchdown by San Francisco to lost by 7.

Cincinnati Bengals +6 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City's offense is virtually unstoppable, but their defense gives up everything (last in total defense, 31st in pass defense; 27th in run defense), and Cincinnati is the 6th highest scoring team in the league.  I will take 6 points knowing Kansas City is going to give up a lot themselves.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. New York Giants
A Monday Night Football game that most people won't watch.

Big Bet
Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. Carolina Panthers
Strength versus strength:  Carolina is 4th in the NFL in rushing and Philadelphia is 2 in rush defense.  Philadelphia has so much more to offer on the other side of the ball, though.

I almost selected the Indianapolis game, but Derek Anderson is that much of a wildcard.

Last Week's Record: 6-8-1

Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 45-42-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 2-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($480)

Picks of the Week

Gotta rush again today, as I need to prepare for the Bears - Dolphins game, at which I will be in attendance.  So, once again no analysis, reasonning or discussion - just picks.  Although, weirdly enough, week 5 was my second consecutive 8-5-2 week

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles -1 1/2 at New York Giants

Chicago Bears -4 at Miami Dolphins

Atlanta Falcons -3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cincinnati Bengals -1 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Cleveland Browns + 1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Buffalo Bills +10 at Houston Texans

Minnesota Vikings -10 v. Arizona Cardinals

Indianapolis Colts + 2 1/2 at New York Jets

Seattle Seahawks -2 1/2 at Oakland Raiders

Carolina Panthers -1 at Washington Racists

Los Angeles Rams -7 at Denver Broncos

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Dallas Cowboys

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Kansas City Chiefs +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

San Francisco 49ers + 9 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Big Bet
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Dallas Cowboys



Last Week's Record: 8-5-2

Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 39-34-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 2-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $85
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($-35)

Picks of the Week

I am in Chicago to watch my sister run in the marathon, which starts in an hour, so no analysis or reasoning, just picks.



My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.



New England Patrionts -10 v. Indianapolis Colts


Buffalo Bills + 5 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans


Carolina Panthers -6 1/2 v. New York Giants
(I feel I might regret this one).




Cincinnati Bengals -6 v. Miami Dolphins


Baltimore Ravens -3 at Cleveland Browns


Green Bay Packers +1 at Detroit Lions


Kansas City Chiefs -3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars


Denver Broncos -1 at New York Jets


Atlanta Falcons +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers


Los Angeles Chargers -5 v. Oakland Raiders


Minnesota Vikings +3 at Philadelphia Eagles


Arizona Cardinals +3 at San Francisco 49ers


Los Angeles Rams -7 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks


Houston Texans -3 v. Dallas Cowboys


New Orleans Saints -6 v. Washington Racists


Big Bet
Denver Broncos -1 at New York Jets






Last Week's Record: 8-5-2

Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 31-29-3
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 2-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $85
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($120)

Divisional Roundtable

Both the American League and National League have started their respective divisional series, so it is officially playoff time!  Enough with this stupid one game wildcard stuff.  Real series, where the depth of the pitching staff is tested, rather than hoping your one ace can win a game for you.  We gathered the entire WeMakeItRain staff, plus our friend Tony to discuss our predictions for this round.  Our gathering took place last week, but I am just now getting around to putting our collective thoughts on screen.  Here are the predictions from WeMakeItRain to you ...


Pepster:  OK fellas.  It's playoff baseball time, a glorious time of year to be a sports fan.  Let's jump right into the series.  The marquis series features 100 win teams but since both of the historic rivals Boston and New York play in the same division, one - the Yankees - ended up the Wild Card.  Thus, they travel to Boston to start the series.  This is interesting here because Hopps is a lifelong Sox fan and Tony is a lifelong Yankees fan.  We will go with home-field advantage first, so Hopps?


Hopps:  Red Sox.  Best team in baseball. HARD STOP.


Tony:  Are you kidding me?  Yankees.  They may not have won 108 games, but they are better than the Red Sox, and I will rejoice when Fenway collapses on them.


Hopps:  I have glaucoma, and even I can see that isn't the case.  If we played just our "B" guys - Betts, Benintendi, Bogaerts and Bradley we win.


Tony:  Until we start a fight, and then Judge and Stanton pummel the entire Sox nation.


Pepster:  Woah, woah, woah, guys.  Let's not make this too personal. 


Hopps:  Red Sox/Yankees IS personal.

Tony:  Don't you mean Yankees/Red Sox.


Pepster:  Ok, moving along.  Sinickal?


Sinickal:  F'in Cubs. 


Pepster:  Great analysis there.  I guess that leaves me.  The Sox are thin in starting rotation, and even thinner in the bullpen.  If there "star"ters - Sale and Price - can get into the 7th or 8th innings, the Sox will win.  Only needs to happen twice, as the Sox can win one slugfest as they have bats all up and down the order.  As does New York.    I will go with Boston as 108 wins is 108 wins.  What did Bill Parcells use to say?  "You are what your record says you are".  So - Boston.  Next up - Houston and Cleveland.


Tony:  Indians. After Houston won the World Series last year, Cleveland just wants it more.


Hopps:  That is exactly why I am picking the Astros.  They are defending champs, and they defended their title with quite possibly the quietest 103 win team ever.  They keep rolling. 


Pepster:  I am with  you Hopps.  The pitching is phenomenal and Alex Bregman has joined Altuve, Correa and Springer as a top bat.  Tough to pitch to this lineup.


Sinickal:  (Mumbling) Up four, end up tied for the division.  Lose the play-in, then lose the wildcard.


Pepster:  Huh?


Sinickal:  F'in Cubs.


Pepster:  Speaking of the Cubs, let us turn to the National League where the surprising Milwaukee Brewers won the NL Central to earn the home-field advantage against the Rockies.


Sinickal:  I hate you.


Pepster:  Hopps?


Hopps:  I hate you too!  Ha.  So I am going with Milwaukee.  Just a guess.

Tony:  Leave it to the Sox fan to "take a guess".  Take a stand you idiot.  I am picking Milwaukee because they are a great team and are hungry.


Pepster:  I get the hungry part.  Milwaukee was supposed to be a year away, from being a year away.Then, they go out and pick up Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and likely NL MVP Christian Yelich - man I wish the Marlins could get a player like Yelich.  So, I am taking Milwaukee.  F'in Marlins.


Sinickal:  Are the Marlins even a team?


Pepster:  Fair question.  Last series.  Dodgers hosting Atlanta.  Really good young talent in Acuna and Albies, and another team that is supposed to be a year away from being a year away.  But that Dodgers lineup - Wow.  They have guys on the bench that would be stars, not just starters, on any other club. Plus, they have two Cubans.  Dodgers in a walk.


Tony:  I also am picking the Dodgers; great team and they are hungry.


Hopps:  Are you sure it isn't YOU that is hungry?  Dodgers.  Atlanta still can't win in the post season.


Sinickal:  F'in Cubs.


Pepster:  And there you have it.  Our divisional series round-up.  Be back shortly for the ALCS and NLCS.

Picks of the Week

Been watching the Ryder Cup, so I don't have it in me to do any real analysis.  Just the picks this week.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Minnesota Vikings +7 at Los Angeles Rams

Chicago Bears -3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cincinnati Bengals + 3 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Detroit Lions + 2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Buffalo Bills +9 at Green Bay Packers

Houston Texans pick 'em at Indianapolis

Jacksonville Jaguars -7 1/2 v. New York Jets

Miami Dolphins + 6 1/2 at New England Patriots

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Tennessee Titans

Arizona Cardinals +3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Cleveland Browns +2 1/2 at Oakland Raiders

Los Angeles Chargers -10 v. San Francisco 49ers

New Orleans Saints -3 1/2 at New York Giants

Baltimore Ravens +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Denver Broncos +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Big Bet
Miami Dolphins +6 1/2 at New England Patriots
Miami usually plays New England tough, even in their heyday.  New England does not seem to tbe as dominating, so I will take the 6 1/2 points.

Last Week's Record: 6-10

Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 23-24-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($350)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($205)

Picks of the Week

So, it only took until week 2 for me to have a really bad week.  If it wasn't for the ups-and-downs, sports betting wouldn't be so exciting.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cleveland Browns +3 v. New York Jets
Home underdog on a short week, while the Jets are playing their third game in 11 days with a rookie starting quarterback. Didn't play out the way I thought, but the pick was still solid.

New Orleans Saints +2 at Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is out two key defenders, and gave up a ton or yards and touchdowns to Cam Newton.  What do we think Drew Brees will do.  Plus, Christian McCaffrey had 14 receptions last week, how many will Alvin Kamara have this week.  

Denver Broncos +6 at Baltimore Ravens
We have Denver, which is 4th in Total Offense, against Baltimore, which is second in Total Defense.  I take Denver because Baltimore's stats are skewed due to the fact they played Buffalo in the first game.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
Cincinnati is 4th in total points scored at 34 per game.  Yes it's early, but Carolina just gave up 31 to Atlanta.  Win or lose, Cincinnati puts up enough points to keep this close and cover, although I honestly I feel they win outright.

Houston Texans -6 v. New York Giants
You k now the season is rapidly deteriorating for you when everyone is cheering the demotion of the starting right tackle, as the Giants' fans are with Erik Flowers.  The Giants defense has actually performed very well this year, but the Texans pass rush is going to be too much for New York.

Tennessee Titans +10 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Blaine Gabbert couldn't win in Jacksonville the first time around, and I don't think he will this time, either.  However, I am just not ready to starting betting on Jacksonville giving up double digit spreads.  Leonard Fournette is out again, and the Jaguars are 4-0 in games he does not play. That doesn't mean they will win by 10, though.

San Francisco 49ers +6 at Kansas City Chiefs 
Kansas City has looked great in putting up the most points in the NFL this year (even with only the 6th best Total Offense), but their defense is last overall, last against the pass and 29th in points given up.    Kansas City may win, but San Francisco will put up some points against the Chiefs.  Likewise, San Franscisco is 25th against the pass so expect big numbers from Patrick Mahomes again.

Miami Dolphins -3 v. Oakland Raiders
Oakland is in further disarray, as this week Gruden said "it is hard to find an elite pass rusher", despite just having traded away Khalil Mack.  Now we here that Gruden has his own personal circle of advisers outside of the management of the team.  Who does he think he is, Donald Trump?

Minnesota Vikings -16 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
This is such an asinine spread that nobody in their right mind should even think about picking it.  But, sometimes there is a line that just seems a little too easy to pick, and there is a reason for that.  I am not taking the easy way on this one.  I hesitantly take the Vikings and give up three scores.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
The Eagles should get a big boost from Carson Wentz, and should coast to an easy victory in this game.  SHOULD.

Washington Racists +2 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
A home underdog with the number 1 total defense - and number 1 passing defense - in the NFL in what should be a close game.  Give me the points.  Plus, apparently Aaron Rodgers has a little bit of a knee injury.

Chicago Bears -6 at Arizona Cardinals
To date Chicago has been one of the pleasant surprises of the league and Arizona has been the second worst team in the league.  I'll gladly give these points on the road, although if if was 7 1/2, I would likely select Arizona.

Los Angeles Chargers +7 at Los Angeles Rams
Yes the Rams have looked spectacular.  But, this could be a Super Bowl preview, and I expect Phillip Rivers to keep this game relatively close.

Dallas Cowboys +1 at Seattle Seahawks
I am not sure that I am excited about this matchup at all.  Dallas does have a pretty good pass rush, and Seattle's offensive line looks better than only Florida State's.

New England Patriots -6 1/2 at Detroit Lions
As we all know, I am not a fan or road favorites, but hasn't shown any real life this season, and we know that Belichick is pissed at his team's performance last week against Jacksonville.  So much so that they traded for Josh Gordon.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Ryan Fitzpatrick against a Steelers secondary that is abysmal. The only reason they aren't ranked worse (15th in pass defense) is because game one was against the Cleveland.  Unleash the FitzMagic!!!

Big Bet
Miami Dolphins -3 v. Oakland Raiders
Oakland is in further disarray, as this week Gruden said "it is hard to find an elite pass rusher", despite just having traded away Khalil Mack.  Now we here that Gruden has his own personal circle of advisers outside of the management of the team.  Who does he think he is, Donald Trump?

I honestly considered a number of games here, but most of those picks were on the road, and giving up 3 points isn't that much to fret over.

Last Week's Record: 6-10-1

Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 17-14-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($665)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $145

Professional Football Wrap-Up

Exciting Week 2; made even more so by my boy Ortega's birthday.  Lots of people, fun and games.  And my birthday present to him was that the Bears took Khalil Mack off of the  hands of his beloved Raiders.  You're Welcome!!!  Once again, none of the patrons stood for the anthem, Anyway, here are my thoughts from Week 1 of the NFL season.

Game of the Week

Minnesota 29 - Green Bay 29.  Two playoff-contending teams battling it out on the not yet frozen tundra.  Bad calls (the Clay Matthews roughing the passer call - although since he is Clay Matthews he deserved it) and bad kicking decided this sister-kisser.  Other contenders could have been Jacksonville over New England 31-20, but New England was never in this game, or Kansas City defeating Pittsburgh 42-37, but this was never really that close.

Best Team Performance

Jacksonville Jaguars.  Only an 11 point win in the AFC Championship game rematch, but the Jaguars thoroughly dominated New England.  The defense held New England to only 316 total yards, including only 82 yards rushing.  They sacked Tom Brady twice, including a sack, strip, fumble recovery by Dante Fowler, Jr., and Blake Bortles was 29-45 for 377 yards and 4 TDs - against only 1 interception, in Leonard Fournette's absence.  A dominating performance by your new favorites to win the AFC.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Arizona Cardinals.  Second week in a row, but much deserved.  Decimated by the Los Angeles Rams 34-0, and it wasn't even that close.  Sam Bradford threw for only 90 yards (17-27) with an interception, and the entire team only rushed for 54 yards.  They did sack Jared Goff twice and intercepted him once, , but they gave up over 40 yards rushing to Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown, and at least 6 receptions and 60 yards to Cooper Kupp (6/63), Robert Woods (6/81), and Brandin Cooks (7/159).  It is a fight between Arizona and Buffalo for the worst team in the NFL.  Is it time to see Josh Rosen?

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Patrick Mahomes, QB - Kansas City Chiefs.  He annihilated Pittsburgh's secondary so bad that you would have thought that Vontae Davis was not the only defensive back to retire at halftime.  He was 23-28 for 326 yards and 6 TDs - and no interceptions.  You read that correctly, Mahomes had more touchdown passes than incompletions!

Honorable Mention goes to Ryan FitzMagic of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who went 27-33 for 402 yards and 4 TDs in Tampa's 27-21 victory over the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles, his second consecutive game over 400 yards!

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

Darius Leonard, LB - Indianapolis Colts.  Leonard finished his week 2 game with 18 tackles, 1 sack and a forced fumble in the Indianapolis Colts' unlikely 21-9 win at Washington.

Honorable Mention to Shaquill Griffin of Seattle, with his 2 interceptions in a losing effort against the Chicago Bears.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Brandon McManus, K - Denver Broncos.  McManus kicked 2 extra points and 2 field goals, the last from 36 yards with only :06 remaining as the Broncos defeated the Oakland Raiders 20-19.  If you want to know why we celebrate mundane kicking performances, go ask the Minnesota Vikings and Cleveland Browns, both of which cut their kickers yesterday.

Least Impressive Individual Performance

Zane Gonzalez, K - Cleveland Browns.  Gonzalez missed both of his extra point attempts, and missed 2 field goals, any of which would have won the game as the Browns fell to the New Orleans Saints 21-18, as Will Lutz showed Browns fans what a kicker is by nailing a 44 yard field goal with :21 left to win the game.

Honorable Mention to Daniel Carlson of the Minnesota Vikings who missed all 3 of his field goal attempts, though he did hit all 3 of his extra points, in the Vikings tie with Packers.  Loses this honor to Gonzalez only because Gonzalez cost his team last week's win as well.

Both kickers were cut yesterday.

Most Surprising Team Performance

Indianapolis Colts.  After losing pretty handily at the hands of the Cincinnati Bengals, the Colts went into D.C. and defeated the Racists 21-9, holding Washington to only 65 yards rushing, with 43 of those yards to quarterback Alex Smith and wide receiver Jamison Crowder.  Andrew Luck was not sharp, but closed this game out with a fourth quarter TD pass to T.Y. Hilton for the final margin of victory.  Both teams are now 1-1.

Most Disappointing Team Performance

Pittsburgh Steelers.  Expecting a bounce-back performance after a week 1 tie with Cleveland, Pittsburgh laid an egg against the Kansas City Chiefs, losing 42-37 in a game that was never that close.  Pittsburgh's secondary still has yet to make an appearance in the ball game.

Most Surprising Individual Performance
Matt Breida, RB - San Francisco 49ers.  Breida, who was slated to be the 49ers backup running back until Jerrick McKinnon went down, rushed 10 times for 138 yards a 1 TD in San Francisco's 30-27 defeat of the Detroit Lions.

Most Disappointing Individual Performance

Kickers.  See above regarding Zane Gonzalez and Daniel Carlson.

Most Impressive Team Performance (Premier League)

Chelsea 4-1 over Cardiff City.  Chelsea gave up an early goal in the 16th minute before running off 4 straight, including the winner just before halftime.  Chelsea parlayed 77% possession into 18 shots (7 on goal) in annihilating Cardiff City to remain a perfect 5-0 (along with Liverpool) at the top of the table.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Premier League)

Eden Hazard - Chelsea.  Hazard, the engine that makes the Chelsea offense drive scored a natural hat trick with goals in the 37th minute and 44th minute (both from Giroud) and a penalty kick in the 80th minute after Willian drew a foul in the area.

Goat of the Week

Zane Gonzalez, K - Cleveland Browns.  Not to beat a dead kicker, but he lost two games for the Browns now.  And, he is cut.

Goat of the Week (Premier League)

Harry Kane - Tottenham Hotspur.  The usually prolific scorer Kane managed just 2 measly shots as the Spurs fell 2-1 to Liverpool.  Now losing to Liverpool in and of itself is no shame as they do sit at the top of the table, but Kane has to be more involved in the offense if the Spurs are to challenge for a UCL spot next year (they currently sit in 6th place).

Breakthrough Performance

Brandin Cooks, WR - Los Angeles Rams.  Cooks caught 7 of his 9 targets for 159 yards.  Although Cooks' big play potential has been known, this week's performance shows that he has easily replaced the departed Sammy Watkins in the Rams offense, and is possibly an even better weapon for Jared Goff than even Watkins was.

Comeback Performance

Nathaniel Hackett, OC - Jacksonville Jaguars.  Having learned from the pathetic, stagnant second half in the AFC Championship game, Hackett opened up the offense and let Blake Bortles throw, and this caught the New England Patriots completely by surprise.  In turn, the Jaguars dominated the defending AFC Champions, with the offense playing just as well as the defense.

Finally

Allen Robinson, WR - Chicago Bears.  Robinson flashed lots of potential in his 4 years with the Jaguars.  He only "flashed" because he was often injured.  With 10 catches on Monday night (out of 14 targets), Robinson showed that he can be the big target needed by young Mitchell Trubisky.  Robinson was key on third down converting 4 third downs with his catches to keep drives alive, and the clock moving.

Impact Injury

Joe Mixon, RB - Cincinnati Bengals.  He is only have his knee cleaned, but his speed is incredibly important in the revival of the Bengals offense, and by making the safeties respect the running game, A.J. Green is finding himself more space in which to operate.  Giovanni Bernard is a true veteran backup, but he does not have Mixon's pure speed.

Team Rising

Miami Dolphins - All of a sudden they are 2-0 and in first place in the AFC East.  Yes it is early, but Tannehill has been efficient, and the running game is 6th in the NFL  behind a combination of Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore, who is now fourth on the All-Time rushing list.  With Oakland next at home, they have a good shot to enter New England 3-0.

Team Falling

Seattle Seahawks - They are nowhere near the presence of recent vintage, and it clearly showed as Russell Wilson was running for his life most of the game and the offense could barely muster any drives until the very end of the game..

Best Teams
(All undefeated teams will be ranked in the top 5 until there are less than five teams, and then the rankings will consist of my true thoughts and not just records).

1. Los Angeles Rams
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5. Cincinnati Bengals

Worst Teams
(All winless teams will be bottomed ranked teams until there are less than five teams, and then the rankings will consist  of my true thoughts and not just records)

32. Buffalo Bills
31. Arizona Cardinals
30. Oakland Raiders
29. New York Giants
28. Detroit Lions

Middle Teams
(Middle teams based on records until the teams play a significant amount of games to gauge their true ability).

15.  Baltimore Ravens
16.  Chicago Bears
17.  Atlanta Falcons
18.  San Francisco 49ers

Statistic That May Interest Only Me

I mentioned it earlier, but Patrick Mahomes had more touchdown passes (6) than incompletions (5) in the Chiefs victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  For the year Mahomes has 12 incompletions and 10 touchdown passes.

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

4. Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Not because this is going to be a good game between great teams, but because this game is going to be fun.  The Steelers defense is 25th in yards against and they basically have no secondary, and Tampa Bay is 1st in total yards and passing, with 482.5 total yards (405 passing) per game.  Likewise, Tampa Bay is 31st in total defense and passing defense with Pittsburgh being second in both offensively.  Can somebody say "Shootout"?

3. Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens.  Denver is 2-0, and Baltimore is 1-1, with Joe Flacco carrying a 93.5 passer rating.  Denver is second in the NFL in rushing and first in third down defensive percentage.  Baltimore  counters with the 7th best passing offense (8th overall) and the second best total defense (third in passing defense).  This is a game between two teams that will likely be battling for playoff position late in the season.

2. Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers - Another game that could be very important come playoff time.  Cincinati is 4th in the NFL in scoring.and third in rushing defense.  Carolina is 5th in rushing offense and 7th in passing defense.  A big matchup for both teams; can largely determine which one is the most legitimate.

1. Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams - A potential Super Bowl preview.

Trivia

Ben Roethlisberger, with his 452 yards passing against Kansas City, moved into 7th place all time in passing yards with 51,852.  In fourth place in that list is Tom Brady.  Brady, drafted in 2000, is in his 18th season in the NFL.  Who is the only other player drafted in 2000 still active in the NFL?

Sports Bar Review of the Week

Today's review is of Duffy's Sports Grill, 225 Clematis Street, West Palm Beach, FL

Part of a local chain that originated in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, Duffy's on Clematis was chosen as it is the local spot for my boy Ortega, who turned 53 on Sunday.  His birthday, his choice.  Lots of people, drinks, food and football.

Ambiance is simply generic-themed sports bar.  Lots of televisions, but they are arranged so that you can really only watch one or two at a time.  There does seem to be a constant neck stretch as you turn from one set of cheers to another to see what is going on.  Enough coverage for all the games, but something just isn't great in the setup.

The sports feel/vibe is good.  A ton of Buffalo Bills fans, New York Jets fans and Miami Dolphins fans congregate at this location.  A smattering of almost every other team as well.  All football on Sundays.  This is good.

I ate before I went to Duffys's, but have eaten the food here many, many times.  Very good for a sports bar.  Known for their wings, I find them OK, at best, but the burgers, salads, ribs, and flatbreads are first rate for bar fare.  They serve a fantastic Caribbean chicken with beans and rice, as well.

The beer selection is OK.  Some craft beers, but caters to your bud light/miller lite bucket crowd.  Very few crafts on tap.  More in bottles, but they don't qualify for the two for one special, or at least that is what I was told (even though every other time I have been to any Duffy's they did - so this was weird).  Started with  Bud Light to hydrate, but when I tried to move to the Terrapin Hopsecutioner, I was told that they were not allowed to serve that to me in the 22oz draft because they didn't have enough glasses, and that the small drafts didn't count for two for ones (also weird).  I didn't want the large beer because I am a drunkard, but because we had a party of about 30, and our server had a number of other tables keeping him busy; I didn't want to have to refill as much.  This was a problem.

The server - Nick - himself was awesome.  He hustled the entire time, working up a sweat for sure.  Due to the large size of our party, timing of things wasn't perfect, but that was mostly because of us.  Nick earned his tips for sure!

The bathrooms are tiny, and often the women's room would develop a line in the small hallway leading to the bathrooms.  Rooms are clean though.

Service - Aaron Rodgers (Awesome)
Drinks - Ryan Tannehill (Perfectly adequate)
Food - DeShaun Watson (historically good to date, but unknown on this week)
Cleanliness - Matt Ryan (good, steady, nothing bad)
Sports Accommodations - Matt Stafford (initially looks pretty good, but something is just a little off)
Overall - Joe Flacco (Good, better than most, not quite as great as others)

Rating System Based Upon Career of QBs chosen:  Meaning, even the rating system is subjective.

Trivia Answer

Last Week's Question was:  Chicago Bears LB Khalil Mack had a sack, forced fumble, fumble recover, interception, and touchdown in the first half of Sunday nights' game against the rival Green Bay Packers.  As widely reported, Mack was the first player since Lawrence Taylor in 1982 to record all of those statistics in one half.  Who was the last player in the NFL to accomplish this in a full game?

Khalil Mack - 2016!

Check back in next week.

Picks of the Week

Not only is the NFL back, but so am I.  A great 11-4-1 week, which means this week will probably tank.  We did start off well by winning Thursday.  Let's see if we can keep this going.Cin

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals +1 v. Baltimore Ravens
The classic overreact game, where the Ravens are coming off their shellacking of the Buffalo Bills, to the point where they are road favorites in an intra-divisional game.  This was an easy pick for that reason.

Carolina Panthers +6 at Atlanta Falcons
So the Falcons played really tough against the Eagles on the road last week, but they lost a lot of really good players to injuries, including Safety Keanu Neal, Linebacker Deion Jones and Running Back Devante Freemen.  Julio Jones is still phenomenal, but he doesn't play defense.

Buffalo Bills + 7 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Yes the Bills are awful, but no they are not starting Nathan Peterman.  That, and given the fact that the Chargers are a west coast team travelling east to play in the early game, which historically - and significantly - favors the east coast team against-the-spread.   Boy is it hard to make this pick, though.  Really, really hard.

Green Bay Packers + 2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Another pick that it is really hard to make given we don't know Aaron Rodgers's full status.  We do know that he will play, so I will take the points at home.

New Orleans Saints -9 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
I almost selected the Browns here getting almost 10 points.  But, there is no way this Browns offense is as potent as the Buccaneers offense was last week  (Go FitzMagic!), and to top things off, this Josh Gordon situation has become as problematic as it ever could be for Cleveland and its offense.  When he is on the field he is dynamic.  When he is not, he is a dynamic pain-in-the-ass for the Browns.  New Orleans in a cakewalk.

Miami Dolphins +3 at New York Jets
Another overreacttive line based upon a surprise showing from last week.  Sam Darnold looked pretty good at times, but this should be a lot closer line that 3.  Miami 24-23, once again causing all of the Ryan Tannehill haters to have to be quiet for at least another week.

Kansas City Chiefs +4 at Pittsburgh Steelers
James Conner did have a great opening week replacing Le'Veon Bell, but this Steelers team just did not look right last week.  And, if Josh Gordon is going to torch your secondary, guess what Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill are going to do.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
I promise that this is not an overreaction to Tampa Bay's defeat of New Orleans last week, but more of a reaction to the play, or lack thereof, of Nick Foles.  The Eagles may very well win this game, but it will be close, so I will take the points.

Houston Texans -4 at Tennessee Titans
I hate road favorites, especially in intradivisional games, and doubly especially in games after the favorite looked pedestrian at best.  But then I hear that Blaine Gabbert is going to be making an appearance for the home underdog, and I feel much better.

Washington Racists +6 v. Indianapolis Colts
At some point in time I need to stop underestimate the Racists, especially when playing against mediocre and worst teams, which the Colts certainly are.

Arizona Cardinals +13 at Los Angeles Rams
For those that follow this blog, you know that I thing the Rams were the second best team in the league last week, and the Cardinals were the second worst.  You can see that here.  But, 13 points is a huge number.  Just huge.  I cannot pull the trigger on that big of a spread this early in the season.

San Francisco 49ers -6 v. Detroit Lions
This is another hard pick for me, as there is no way that the Lions play that bad this week.  Also, there is no way Garappolo plays that bad either.  I would feel more comfortable if this was 3 1/2-4 points.  I will still give them.

Denver -6 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
I have a strong feeling that this Raiders season is going to be a dumpster-fire.  That is all.

New England Patriots +1 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have a great defense.  GREAT.  But, they also have Blake Bortles against Tom Brady.  Yes the AFC Championship game was phenomenal and Jacksonville was on Myles Jack fumble recovery for touchdown away from being in the Super Bowl, but they were also one coaching staff afraid to put the ball in the hands of their starting quarterback away as well.  And ... they have the same quarterback.  Plus no -or very limited - Leonard Fournette.

New York Giants +3 at Dallas Cowboys
I don't think either of these teams is very good, thus, I will take the points.

Chicago Bears -3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Both teams looked lively in losses last week.  I am picking the Bears only because of more Khalil Mack!

Big Bet
Carolina Panthers +6 at Atlanta Falcons
So the Falcons played really tough against the Eagles on the road last week, but they lost a lot of really good players to injuries, including Safety Keanu Neal, Linebacker Deion Jones and Running Back Devante Freemen.  Julio Jones is still phenomenal, but he doesn't play defense.  Too many injuries to the Falcons.

Last Week's Record: 11-4-1

Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 11-4-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $810
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $810