Week 5 of the NFL Season, and I am coming off two horrendous weeks in a row. Perhaps after a couple of good years in a row this is my comeuppance. But, I am not giving up. After a close brush with Hurricane Matthew, the detritus of foliage has been cleared out, selfishness has been washed away, if only for the time being, and hopefully my view of the NFL has been cleansed and I can see clearly now the rain is gone (sorry, couldn't help it).
My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else, a reminder. Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.
Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers
Chicago Bears + 4 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
So, the Bears let me down by winning last week, but I am still hoping that my pick is the kiss of death so that Chicago will have DeShaun Watson under center next year. Of course, I think Indianapolis is overrated this year, and that the Bears can keep it close.
Washington Racists +4 at Baltimore Ravens
These two teams give me serious problems, as I still cannot figure out who they are, and how good they are or are not. Given that neither team is especially explosive offensively, I will take the points. Especially since the Ravens are less explosive than the Racists. Whichever team establishes the run game first will win. Matt Jones did that last week, and will try to solidify his hold as the starting running back with a second great performance.
New England Patriots - 10 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
Road favorite? Check. Double digit favorite? Check. Wish there was another reason to not pick the Patriots and I would check that off too. However, Tom Brady returns, and he is going to be angry. I feel glad I have Julian Edelman on my fantasy team today.
Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at Detroit Lions
Philadelphia is a road favorite, yes, but the Detroit Lions just are not very good. Their defense gave up 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing to the Chicago Bears last week.
Miami Dolphins -3 v. Tennessee Titans
Two 1-3 teams with limited time to salvage playoff hopes this season. Not sure why I picked the Dolphins here, as it is just a gut feeling. I don't trust Ryan Tannehill, but he does have much better receivers than Mariota has to work with. Jarvis Landry makes a big play that wins this bet.
Houston Texans +6 at Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings only give up 12 1/2 points per game, which means this should be easy to pick the undefeated home squad. However, the Texans only give up 18.3, so I will take the 6 points. Minnesota is a monster on defense, but are not prolific offensively, ranking 32nd in the league in rushing yards and 31st in total yards. This might be ripe for an outright upset.
New York Jets +9 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Don't get me wrong, the Steelers will win this game, but they rank 30th in pass defense, and Ryan Fitzpatrick loves to throw the ball (even though they should be more balanced). The Steelers offense, behind Roethlisberger, Bell and Brown, jump out on the Jets, who have to throw to comeback, and end up losing by a touchdown.
Don't get me wrong, the Steelers will win this game, but they rank 30th in pass defense, and Ryan Fitzpatrick loves to throw the ball (even though they should be more balanced). The Steelers offense, behind Roethlisberger, Bell and Brown, jump out on the Jets, who have to throw to comeback, and end up losing by a touchdown.
Denver Broncos -3 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
Denver's defense is phenomenal, as we all know, but it is especially tough against the pass. Denver's pass defense ranks second in the league by holding teams to 169.5 yards per game. Atlanta is a pass-heavy team, gaining 354.2 yards per game. They won't approach that total in this game, and Denver wins.
Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys, behind rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekial Elliott (second leading rusher in the league), are one of the NFL's big story. However, the Bengals are one of the leagues better teams, and they will pass all over the Cowboys defense. I don't expect this game to be close.
Los Angeles Rams + 2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
Yes the Rams may be doing this with smoke and mirrors, but Case Keenum is 6-2 in his last 8 starts. And they are getting points against the Bills? Buffalo is coming off a huge win over the New England Patriots, and might be ripe for a let down this week, as well. I will take the home team getting points.
Yes the Rams may be doing this with smoke and mirrors, but Case Keenum is 6-2 in his last 8 starts. And they are getting points against the Bills? Buffalo is coming off a huge win over the New England Patriots, and might be ripe for a let down this week, as well. I will take the home team getting points.
Oakland Raiders -3 1/2 v. San Diego Chargers
Not really sure who to pick in this divisional rivalry. I have gone back and forth on reasons to pick both Oakland and San Diego. I settled on Oakland because, well, because I attended Sebastian Janikowski's wedding and his wife is currently pregnant. Not a football related reason, but hell, they way things have gone this year, it is as good as any.
Green Bay Packers -7 v. New York Giants
Green Bay will be fresh coming off a bye week, and the Giants are mediocre defending the pass. I will give the points.
Green Bay will be fresh coming off a bye week, and the Giants are mediocre defending the pass. I will give the points.
Carolina Panthers -5 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Yes, Cam Newton is out for the Panthers. But, Doug Martin, and likely Charles Sims, the top two running backs are out for Tampa Bay. Derek Anderson is a veteran that can rely on the games best tight end, Greg Olsen, and a large target in Kelvin Benjamin to be open when he needs them to be.
Yes, Cam Newton is out for the Panthers. But, Doug Martin, and likely Charles Sims, the top two running backs are out for Tampa Bay. Derek Anderson is a veteran that can rely on the games best tight end, Greg Olsen, and a large target in Kelvin Benjamin to be open when he needs them to be.
Big Bet Game of the Week
Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys, behind rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekial Elliott (second leading rusher in the league), are one of the NFL's big story. However, the Bengals are one of the leagues better teams, and they will pass all over the Cowboys defense. I don't expect this game to be close.
Picking a road team and giving points does not seem like the recipe for a guaranteed bet, but I feel this strongly about Cincinnati in this game. Carlos Dunlap has a big game in getting to Dak Prescott, and forces him into his first interception, by Pacman Jones, our Patron Saint.
The Cowboys, behind rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekial Elliott (second leading rusher in the league), are one of the NFL's big story. However, the Bengals are one of the leagues better teams, and they will pass all over the Cowboys defense. I don't expect this game to be close.
Picking a road team and giving points does not seem like the recipe for a guaranteed bet, but I feel this strongly about Cincinnati in this game. Carlos Dunlap has a big game in getting to Dak Prescott, and forces him into his first interception, by Pacman Jones, our Patron Saint.
Last Week's Record: 6-9
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 29-33-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($555)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($1075)
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