Week 6 of the NFL Season, and the losing streak continues. Honestly, don't believe anything I write here until this streak comes to an end. Just don't.
My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else, a reminder. Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.
San Diego Chargers +3 v. Denver Broncos
Chicago Bears -1 v. Jacksonville Jaguars.
Once again - this is for the DeShaun Watson sweepstakes. Given that I have been wrong most the time, at least with this pick, I can live with it.
Buffalo Bills -8 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
At first glance, this number seemed way too high for me, and my instinct was to select San Francisco. But then I remembered that Colin Kaepernick is half of his former playing wait, and the 49ers are travelling east for an early game. Buffalo, easy.
Detroit Lions -3 v. Los Angeles Rams
Another west coast team travelling east for the early game, only this east coast team has a quarterback with only 4 interceptions in 181 pass attempts (with 10 touchdowns) while Case Keenum has 5 interceptions (compared to only 5 TDs) in 152 pass attempts. Aaron Donald is likely the best player on the field, and can cause havoc in the middle of the line, but likely not enough to stop a two game skid.
Miami Dolphins +7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
I am actually going to this game, so I am hoping that it is a close game (and that both Le'Veon Bell and Jarvis Landry have huge games). Pittsburgh wins, but not by more than a touchdown.
Cincinnati Bengals +8 at New England Patriots
Just too big of a line. The Bengals haven't won in New England since 1986, but need a serious win to avoid falling even further behind the other AFC playoff contenders. I think Cincinnati could win this game outright, so I will definitely take the points.
Carolina Panthers -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
So, back when I used to have a good winning percentage on my picks, I would generally follow the rules that I have learned are generally solid, straying occasionally when I thought the spread called for it, like this game. Jonathan Stewart is back for the Panthers, and besides, the Saints cannot stop anybody. Two touchdowns each for Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin.
Baltimore Ravens +3 at New York Giants
Believe it or not, the Ravens actually have a better running game than the Giants, so for that reason alone, I select Baltimore (plus the points).
Believe it or not, the Ravens actually have a better running game than the Giants, so for that reason alone, I select Baltimore (plus the points).
Washington Racists +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Both teams need this game to keep pace in the NFC East. With the home team getting points, I will take them, and hope that Matt Jones can get just enough yards to let the league's 6th best passing game do what they need to do to beat the Eagles.
Tennessee Titans -7 v. Cleveland Browns
While Cleveland is focusing on the Toronto Blue Jays, the Titans have quietly amassed the second best rushing offense in the league at 148.6 yards per game. That equals victory in this game.
Kansas City Chiefs -1 at Oakland Raiders
Yes it is a road favorite, but at 1 point, not really. Andy Reid is 15-2 all time coming off a bye week.
While Cleveland is focusing on the Toronto Blue Jays, the Titans have quietly amassed the second best rushing offense in the league at 148.6 yards per game. That equals victory in this game.
Kansas City Chiefs -1 at Oakland Raiders
Yes it is a road favorite, but at 1 point, not really. Andy Reid is 15-2 all time coming off a bye week.
Green Bay Packers -4 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay lead's the NFL in rushing defense, allowing 42.8 yards per game and 1.99 yards per rush. Ezekial Elliott will do better than that, but not enough to win.
Atlanta Falcons + 6 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
These Falcons just seem different from those of the past few years. They are first in the NFL in points, total yards per game and passing yards per game, while also being seventh in rushing yards per game. Seattle's defense is first in total yards per game, third in passing yards and 7th in rushing yards. Clearly something has to give, as Seattle's offense and Atlanta's defense are both rather pedestrian. I will take the points.
These Falcons just seem different from those of the past few years. They are first in the NFL in points, total yards per game and passing yards per game, while also being seventh in rushing yards per game. Seattle's defense is first in total yards per game, third in passing yards and 7th in rushing yards. Clearly something has to give, as Seattle's offense and Atlanta's defense are both rather pedestrian. I will take the points.
Houston Texans -3 v. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are 1-4 in their last 5 road games, giving up almost 35 points per game. Hopefully Lamar Miller can score a couple of touchdowns against a defense like that.
New York Jets + 7 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Not a very inviting Monday Night Football game, as a pair of third place teams will be showcased. Ryan actually played pretty well against Pittsburgh last week, going 25-38 for 255 yards and 1 touchdown, with no interceptions. Drew Stanton will not be the Jets by more than a touchdown, even though David Johnson is a serious MVP candidate.
The Colts are 1-4 in their last 5 road games, giving up almost 35 points per game. Hopefully Lamar Miller can score a couple of touchdowns against a defense like that.
New York Jets + 7 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Not a very inviting Monday Night Football game, as a pair of third place teams will be showcased. Ryan actually played pretty well against Pittsburgh last week, going 25-38 for 255 yards and 1 touchdown, with no interceptions. Drew Stanton will not be the Jets by more than a touchdown, even though David Johnson is a serious MVP candidate.
Big Bet Game of the Week
Carolina Panthers -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
So, back when I used to have a good winning percentage on my picks, I would generally follow the rules that I have learned are generally solid, straying occasionally when I thought the spread called for it, like this game. Jonathan Stewart is back for the Panthers, and besides, the Saints cannot stop anybody. Two touchdowns each for Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin.
What the hell. I just feel that the Saints defense is that bad. They are last in the league in points allowed, and 31st in the league in yards allowed.
Last Week's Record: 5-9
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 34-42-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($655)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($1730)
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