Picks of the Week

 

Last week's results were almost the exact opposite as the previous week.  Two weeks ago with 5 to 10 munutes left in the 1:00 games I was basically 9-1, and with a lot of scores changing the outcome in the early games, I lost money.  This week at the 1:00 juncture with a quarter left, I was 1-2, and losing 5 of 6 games.  Thank god for the turnaround as a few games switched, and a strong finish in the p.m. games and on Monday led to a winning record.  Can you say STREAK?!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cleveland Browns -7 v. New York Jets

Home team on a short week, especially when the home team has been playing well!  Long live Joe Flacco!  I bet the Jets wish they had a veteran like him!

Dallas Cowboys -5 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

I initially picked Detroit, and I really, really want to take Detroit here - especially at this number - but this game is also a short week game, so I changed my mind.  Both of these teams are solid to great on both sides of the ball.  The slightest kink in each's armor:  Detroit is 23rd in passing defense going against Dallas' 6th ranked pass offense; Dallas in 19th in rushing defense going against Detroit's 3rd ranked run game.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Atlanta Falcons

This Chicago Bears team is a couple of mismanaged end-of-game coaching from having won 7-in-a row.  I am not saying the deserved to win all of those games, nor would they have if not for poor coaching, but just saying this team is way closer than people think.  If they manage Carolina's first overall pick well, i.e. trading back even 5 to 9 spots for an appropriate package (or even better, trading to 2 or 3, then trading back again!), and they select well in this year's draft (plus extra firsts in 2025 and 2026), they could be set for awhile!

Miami Dolphins +3 at Baltimore Ravens

Both teams played great against good opponents last week, Miami beating Dallas and Baltimore dismantling San Francisco.  I feel that if one of the teams is going to suffer a letdown this week it might be the Ravens, but only because they are playing on a short week, whereas the Dolphins have their regular 7-days between games.  So, this paragraph is what I wrote on Saturday, when I first published this week's picks.  But, my actual pick, when thinking about this and deciding Miami just might be too banged up to deal with Baltimore, my official pick is ...

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

So, I lost an extra half-point by changing my mind, but so be it.

Houston Texans -4 v. Tennessee Titans

Houston, fighting for a playoff spot - and evening a divisional championship - have C.J. Stroud back!

New England +14 at Buffalo Bills

Buffalo wins this game, but most of their games have been close.  New England's last few games have been (L7, L10, W3, L6, L3, L4, L4, L3) in the last eight weeks.  This game should be easily within 2 touchdowns.

New York Giants +6 v. Los Angeles Rams

I am torn between two betting rules here:  The Rams are a west coast team traveling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot (disadvantge) versus the Giants who are playing on a short week (disadvantage).  I will take the Giants because they are getting points, and because Tyrod Taylor is the professional quarterback that can at least keep them settled.

Washington Commanders +13 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Is it bad that I want to select Washington here?  San Francisco is a west coast team traveling east playing in the 1:00 time slot AND they are playing on a short week.  I suppose I can just hope Washington can keep it close AND they have been playing much better when Jacoby Brissett has been behind center, which he will do from the start Sunday.

Philadelphia Eagles -12 v. Arizona Cardinals

So Philadelphia is playing on a short week, but sometimes a short-week team covers.  This week it will be Philadelphia, as Arizona is hoping for Carolina's third loss to aid them in their quest for the first overall pick, and the subsequent trade haul it could garner from team's that need a QB.  See Bears, Chicago.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Does anybody really want to play the Buccaneers right now?  Or, in the playoffs?  Tampa Bay is on a 4-game winning streak with Baker Mayfield just playing lights-out!

Carolina Panthers +4 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence is missing his first NFL game due to an injury, and although C.J. Beatherd is a legitimate NFL backup and won't panic in the pocket, the Panthers have been playing well, losing by 3 to the Packers last week, defeating the Falcons the week prior, and losing to the Buccaneers by 3 two weeks before that.  Closer than it should be, and Carolina at least covers, if not wins outright.

Indianapolis Colts -4 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Antonio Pearce has the Raiders playing inspired football lately, but they suffer from the double-whammy of traveling to the Eastern time zone to play in the 1:00 time slot AND they are on a short week.  That might just be too much to overcome.  Gardner Minshew is also hunting for the AFC South title.  Sorry, I just made every Jaguar fan cringe!

Seattle Seahawks -4 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Too bad for Rudolp (Mason) that Christmas is over.  We can all go back to mocking him and not letting him play reindeer games.  (Or at least I hope!)

Las Angeles Chargers +3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Dysfunction, dysfunction, dysfunction - and this has nothing to do with Jarret Stidham.  Even if some of the roster are anti-Russell Wilson, they are not anti-administration screwing with players and the players' money.  I am not talking about benching him for 2 games to protect an off-season trade from injury; I am talking about the revelation that the Broncos came to Wilson after the Broncos defeated the Chiefs and told him to renegotiate his contract downward or he would be benched BACK THEN!

Cincinnati Bengals +6 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, I know that Joe Burrow and most likely J'Marr Chase are not playing.  But, Jake Browning has been playing well (a 98.5 rating compared to Patrick Mahomes' 91.7), and the Chiefs have not been playing that well.  Plus, they are on a short week.  I'll take almost a touchdown.

Minnesota Vikings -1 v. Green Bay Packers

A one-point spread in what is basically a playoff elimination game for the loser of this divisional rivalry.  Lots to digest in this game, as Jaren Hall will be making the start over Nick Mullens, who moved the ball well, but just turned it over too much.  Hall was 8/10 for 101 yards in his first game this year, so there is potentail, especially given his talented skill position players, including Justin Jefferson and Ty Chandler.  Chandler could feast against the NFL's 30th ranked run defense.  And speaking of the Packers' defense, star cornerback Jaire Alexander is suspended and will not dress for talking the field as a captain last week when he was not a captain, and then electing to defend instead of defer when Green Bay won the toss.  He was lucky that the coaching staff had previously expressed to the officials they would defer if they won the toss, so the officials bailed out Alexander, otherwise we could have seen a game where Carolina received the ball with the opening kickoff IN BOTH HALVES!

Big Bet:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Does anybody really want to play the Buccaneers right now?  Or, in the playoffs?  Tampa Bay is on a 4-game winning streak with Baker Mayfield just playing lights-out!

I am riding with team Baker on this one.  I do like Houston, New England, and Chicago here, but I am taking Tampa Bay.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-5-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  128-98-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $185

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,585

Picks of the Week

 

Pathetically average week, but losing the Big Bet hurts a lot!  Try to turn this around this week, with a good start on Thursday!  Merry Christmas everyone, and good luck betting!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -4 v. New Orleans Saints

Home team on a short week, especially when the home team has been playing well!

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

I know that I am going against the above adage - home team on a short week, but the Bengals have been cruising under Jake Browning.  But, could it be stupid to bet against Rudolph (Mason) on Christmas weekend?!

Buffalo Bills -12 at Los Angeles Chargers

This is absolutely ridiculous!  I mean, I get why it is this high - what is an Easton Stick anyway? - but why am I picking it?  Gut feeling, and the Chargers have among the worst defenses in the NFL (30th overall, 28th scoring, 30th passing yards)  Calling Stefon Diggs!

Chicago Bears -4 v. Arizona Cardinals

Chicago took the league's best defense down to the wire, and if not for a dropped TD on the final Hail Mary, would have beat them. Arizona's is nowehere near the level of the Browns (26th overall, 31st rushing, 31st scoring), but Chicago's defense may be close to that level now.

Tennessee Titans +3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle coming off an emotional upset win on Monday night, are ripe for an upset, especially since they are playing on a short week.

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta's defense is playing very well this year (9th in total defense), and they were starting to use Bijan Robinson a bit, and then last week's loss to the horrendous Panthers happened.  And, Gardner Minshew is ripe to take this team to the playoffs, especially with Jonathan Taylor back.

Cleveland Browns -3 at Houston Texans

Case Keenum is a legitimate NFL quarterback, and is not going to be scared by being on the field.  The problem for him is that Cleveland's defense just runs through everyone.  And, Joe Flacco is still a legit NFL quarterback as well.  He might get sacked a few more times than normal, but he will fling it around the field.

Green Bay Packers -4 at Carolina Panthers

Even in a win, the Panthers managed to look awful.  See last week's 9-7 win over Atlanta.

Washington Commanders +3 at New York Jets 

I don't like this line one bit.  I actually wrote it selecting Washington, and picking New York.  Either way, I don't like it.  But, I really don't Trevor Siemian.

Detroit Lions -3 at Minnesota Vikings

This Lions offense is really potent (3rd overall, 4th passing, 2nd rushing, 5th scoring), and although Nick Mullens can play, Detroit is within range of home-field advantage.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is in the midst of a three-game slump, and even with Trevor Lawrence being out of concussion protocol, their 25th ranked defense (overall/29th passing and 21st scoring) may have its collective hands full with a team that has won 3 games in a row scoring 34, 29, and 21 in those wins.

Miami Dolphins -2 v. Dallas Cowboys

I honestly think that the Cowboys are going to win this game.  But ... I cannot pick 3 visiting teams on short weeks, and I already picked Cincinnati and Buffalo.

New England Patriots +7 at Denver Broncos

New England has played teams tough, losing by 10 last week to Kansas City.  Denver is not Kansas City.  I don't think Denver can score enough points to cover this spread against the Patriots defense (8th total, 2nd in rushing defense).

Las Vegas Raiders +10 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

There is no way Las Vegas is as good as their 63-point outburst last week, but they just may be good enough to cover a double digit spread against a team that has been struggling a bit in the past month or so.

Philadelphia Eagles - 13 1/2 v. New York Giants

A double-digit spread against an intra-divisional rival is almost always an automatic no-no (see Raiders above).  But, this is where the Tommy DeVito experience comes crashing to the ground like a feast of sleeping with 7 fishes.

Baltimore Ravens +6 at San Francisco 49ers

I just think that this game is going to be incredibly close.  Because of that, I'll take the points.  But, Nick Bosa might have the best game of any edge rusher ever.  I am assuming that he is going to be extra motivated (IYKYK) against the one team in the NFL with an all-black quarterback room (3 QBs, OC, QB coach).  Baltimore still keeps it close.

Big Bet:

Green Bay Packers -4 at Carolina Panthers

Even in a win, the Panthers managed to look awful.  See last week's 9-7 win over Atlanta.

I hate picking visiting teams giving points as my big bet, but there are not a lot of other choices out there.  I thought about the Browns, but they are in the same situation as the Packers being on the road giving up points.  The Colts and Raiders were also on my radar.  I am just hoping that Aaron Jones comes back from injury and has a terrific game (as I need him for fantasy too!)

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-7-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  119-93-12

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($235)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,400

Picks of the Week

Got absolutely hammered last week, and not only that - lost the big bet too!!!  Definite correction from this year, but hopefull prepping for the Saturday games gives me time to process the Sunday/Monday games, and really hit a bounce-back week.  It started well Thursday night.

It is Week 15, so good luck to everyone in your Fantasy Football playoffs!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

I still hate this pick, even after the Raiders 63-21 victory, but glad I made it!

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Minnesota Vikings

This is a tough game to pick, because most of the yearly stats are irrelevant due to Jake Browning and Nick Mullens being the starters.  This is more worrisome for Minnesota, as they had the 8th best passing offense in the NFL.  The return of Justin Jefferson absolutely helps Nick Mullens, but Jake Browning seemed pretty settled in last week.  Plus - home team/short week.

Indianapolis Colts -1 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

How can two teams have the exact same, above-.500 record, and yet be so diametrically opposed?  Pittsburgh going downhill, fast.  And on a short week - I'll take the home team (I know, shocking, right?!)

Detroit Lions -5 v. Denver Broncos

I talked to some of the world's leading minds - including several actuaries - and nobody can explain this year's Denver Broncos.  Apparently they have the best defense in the NFL since their annihilation at the hands of the Dolphins (70-20 for those that forgot), but that still only gives them the 22nd best scoring defense, 24th best passing defense, and 32nd ranked rushing and total defense.  Crazily enough, they do have the 2nd best 3rd down percentage defense.  The Lions offense is just the opposite (3rd in total offense; 5th in rushing; 7th in passing and scoring).  Plus, they are at home, and just look ... better.  Disregard the Bears loss because they Bears just play them tough in general.  Sometimes it IS about matchups.

Chicago Bears +3 at Cleveland Browns

The Bears have played tough in November and December, and look to keep that up against a Joe Flacco-led offense whose primary dimension - running the ball - plays into the Bears 2nd-ranked rushing defense.

New England Patriots +8 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The struggling Chiefs head to New England to play a team that hasn't lost by more than this spread line since week 8.  It is supposed to be rainy and windy in Foxboro.

New York Jets +8 v. Miami Dolphins

Won't the real Zach Wilson please stand up, please stand up.  Honestly, this pick is less about Wilson, and more about the fact that a LOT of key Dolphins could miss this game, including several lineman and Tyreek Hill.  Plus, the Dolphins played Monday night.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Houston Texans

This is a really difficult pick because Tennessee played Monday night, but as of now we are not sure whether C.J. Stroud can play for Houston. Given that he is still listed as "doubtful," I will have to take the medical staff's word for it and pick Tennessee.  This doubly hurts since Stroud is my fantasy QB (well 1 of 2 starters) and the pickings are slim in a 2 QB leauge.  Guess I am not a Tommy DeVito fan!

New York Giants +5 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

And, speaking of ... If any team can prepare for Tommy DeVito at QB, it is the New Orleans Saints, who basically have their own DeVito in Taysom Hill.  But, New Orleans' defense is 26th against the rush, so we should see a healthy dose of Saquan Barkley, or, at least enough to keep this close.  I hate this pick because the Giants also played Monday night.  Ugh!

Atlanta Falcons -3 at Carolina Panthers

The Chicago Bears' dream of back-to-back overall number 1 picks is still alive-and-kicking thanks to the dreadul Panthers offense (30th in scoring; 30th in total offense; 31st in passing offense).  The Panthers D is great against the pass (3rd), but part of that is teams are easily head and run the ball almost exclusively late (22nd rush defense).  Since Atlanta has found Bijan Robinson, I look for a healthy dose of running the ball.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

As of now, it looks like Aaron Jones will return for the Packers, and even with Jones I expect this to be a close game.  If he cannot return, or if he is limited by his injury, and with Christian Watson out - Tampa should cover on the road.  Plus Green Bay played Monday night, and I already picked 2 teams from Monday Night even though it is a short week.

San Francisco 49ers -12 at Arizona Cardinals

So, picking San Francisco as an intradivisional double-digit favorite last week hurt me, but even then they actually beat Seattle by 12, and Seattle is a much better tean than Arizona, which is 27th in scoring and 24th in total defense.

Los Angeles Rams -6 at Washington Commanders

At least the Rams get the 4:00 time slot coming from the west coast.  Anybody wonder if the Commanders defense is missing Montez Sweat and Chase Young yet?

Dallas Cowboys +2 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Even though Buffalo beat the Chiefs last week, they are still 2-3 in their last 5 games.  On paper this is a close game with Dallas and Buffalo 1st and 5th in scoring; and 4th and 6th, respectively, in scoring defense.  In close games I take the points.  Also, this game is not going to be as close as on paper.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is a solid playoff team, but, they just look like they are missing a little something when watching them play (like a Trevor Lawrence connection with Calvin Ridley).  Hopefully they get that back before the playoffs to make the AFC a bit more exciting.  But for now, they host the Ravens who have won 3 in a row and 7 of their last 8.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Seattle Seahawks

Seattle is led by Drew Lock, who will not be enough to overcome the damage Philadelphia's offense is going to do to the 26th ranked scoring defense in the NFL (and 28th in total defense).

Big Bet:

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Houston Texans

This is a really difficult pick because Tennessee played Monday night, but as of now we are not sure whether C.J. Stroud can play for Houston. Given that he is still listed as "doubtful," I will have to take the medical staff's word for it and pick Tennessee.  This doubly hurts since Stroud is my fantasy QB (well 1 of 2 starters) and the pickings are slim in a 2 QB leauge.  Guess I am not a Tommy DeVito fan!

Tennessee gets the Big Bet because they are home - and most of my other favorite picks are on the road.  Plus, just last week they beat the vaunted Dolphins offense by holding Miami to only 27.

Record

Last Week's Record:  4-10-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  112-86-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($865)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,635

Picks of the Week

Last week was the third week this year with only 3 losses or less!  Too bad one of my losses was the Big Bet.  If I keep this up, I could make this a profession!  (Hint - it won't keep up; don't worry).  But, a helluva year it has been.  Let's hope it continues.

It is Week 14, so for those of you fantasy players fighting for a playoff spot - good luck!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 1/2 v. New England Patriots

When two horrible teams play, I ordinarily just take the points.  The problem here was Pittsburgh was the home team on a short week.  I should have known better due to my first sentence - after all home teams on short weeks only cover a bit more than 2/3 of the time.  I should have known this was a 1/3.

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

The Lions won 31-26 at home versus the Bears in Week 11, right about the time the Bears defense starting to really dominate.  This game is at home, and the Bears #1 ranked rush defense may be able to keep the score close.  Plus, I love a home team getting points.

Carolina Panthers +5 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

This is just a gut pick because New Orleans has been playing poorly - losing their last 3 games and their last win coming in Week 9 against the Bears, who were worse than they are now.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are in the playoff hunt after winning their last 3 games, but they are a west coast team traveling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot.  The Ravens defense makes sure that this game isn't particularly close.

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Very impressive performance by Cincinnati's offense - and especially Jake Browning - on Monday night against the Jaguars.  But it was a Monday night, making this a short week, so I will take the points and the perpetually underrated Gardner Minshew.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 1 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

So, even after picking AGAINST Cincinnati because they played Monday night, I am picking FOR Jacksonville who played in the same game.  That is because this Browns team with Joe Flacco is not the same.  Yes, he gives some stability, but the explosiveness isn't there and despite Jerome Ford's great season, this offense really misses Nick Chubb.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 at Atlanta Falcons

Does anybody really believe that this game has serious playoff implications?!  Well, it does.  Give me the points in an awful game.  Bonus bet, Richaad White outgains Bijon Robinson in yards from scrimmage.

Houston Texans -3 at New York Jets

This Jets defense is legit, and has been playing awesome the last few weeks, even in losses.  but, this is a tremendous passing offense and even without Tank Dell, Houston will move the ball.  The wildcard?  Do we get a refreshed Zach Wilson out to prove he belongs in the NFL, or do we get a depressed, anxious Zach Wilson that tries to force things?  I think the latter, and Houston's defense comes up with a big turnover or two.

San Francisco 49ers -14 v. Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco has been throttling teams, winning their last four games by over a 23 point average, including a 31-13 vicotry over this same Seattle team in Week 12.  And this game is in San Francisco!

Las Vegas Raiders +3 v. Minnesota Vikings

Las Vegas has been playing teams tough, even though they have lost their last 4 games.  Minnesota has a turnover maching at quarterback.  Strip sack by Maxx Cosby anyone?

Kansas City Chiefs -1 v. Buffalo Bills

Two teams underperforming, but I will take Kansas City because of:  (1) Josh Allen's turnovers; and (2) The fact that Kansas City's defenses is just a littttttle bit better (3 v. 5 scoring; 14th v. 17th 3rd down percentage; 19 v. 20 rushing; 6th v. 8th passing; and 4th v. 13th overall).

Denver Broncos -3 at Los Angeles Chargers

The smoke-and-mirrors that was 5 consecutive wins for the Broncos may have ended with their 22-17 loss to Houston last week; except now they play the worst defense in the NFL.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

The Cowboys offense is humming, having scored no less than 33 points in their 4 wins since losing 28-23 to the Eagles in Philadelphia in Week 9.  And, this game is at home.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 at New York Giants

Not sure what has gotten into Jordan Love, but he has been playing great in the Packers' three-game winning streak, and now they get to play the worst offense and the 28th-ranked defense in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins -13 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

This is a huge point spread, but this late in the season most of the betting services have a pretty good idea of what is going on in the league.  Plus, the Dolphins have scored 34 and 45 in their last two weeks after a close win versus the Raiders in Week 11.  Tennessee is 22nd in passing defense and has to contend with the #1 ranked passing offense and the receiving yards leader in Tyreek Hill.

Big Bet:

Miami Dolphins -13 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

This is a huge point spread, but this late in the season most of the betting services have a pretty good idea of what is going on in the league.  Plus, the Dolphins have scored 34 and 45 in their last two weeks after a close win versus the Raiders in Week 11.  Tennessee is 22nd in passing defense and has to contend with the #1 ranked passing offense and the receiving yards leader in Tyreek Hill.

Yes - this is absolutely idiotic for me to pick this game as my big bet.  Way too many points to give up.  But, most of the other teams I felt like selecting are on the road (Green Bay, Houston, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville), or Baltimore giving up more than a touchdown at home.  So, I might as well go with the hot offense.

Record

Last Week's Record:  10-3

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  108-76-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $505

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,500  

Picks of the Week

Back on the winning track!  Let's turn this into a streak.  I am in an airport right now leaving in about an hour so no real analysis.  Still gotta get the picks in, though!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Dallas Cowboys -91/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Weird "short week" Thursday game in which both teams have their standard week from playing last Thanksgiving.  I didn't like this pick when it occurred, but I wouldn't have liked it if I picked Seattle either.

Houston Texans -3 v. Denver Broncos

Los Angeles Chargers -5 1/2 at New England Patriots

I hate picking a Pacific Time Zone team playing in the 1:00 slot, but the Patriots are awful.  I hate this bet.

Detroit Lions -4 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Already two road favorites.  This week is not going to be good.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Can Pittsburgh score 6 1/2 points?

Atlanta Falcons -2 at New York Jets

Arthur Smith apparently discovered Bijan Robinson.

Indianapolis Colts -1 at Tennessee Titans

Colts to the playoffs?

Miami Dolphins -8 1/2 at Washington Commanders

If I am going to go down the road favorites rabbit hole, let's go down all the way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Bears #1 overall draft pick remains secure for now.

Los Angeles Rams -4 v. Cleveland Browns

We still don't know who will be playing quarterback for Cleveland.

San Francisco 49ers -3 at Philadelphia Eagles

It has become trendy to pick Philly because how could they be an underdog at home.  I am going against the trend.

Green Bay Packers +6 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City hasn't been playing particularly well; Green Bay has.

Cincinnati Bengals +9 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

It is Jake Browning, but 9 1/2 is a lot of points.

Big Bet:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Bears #1 overall draft pick remains secure for now.

I like taking home teams, so Green Bay was a consideration here, but I don't want big money against Patrick Mahomes.

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  98-73-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $280

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,995