Picks of the Week

No analysis this week as I am literally shopping for pre-game accouterments for the battle of former NFC Central rivals the almighty Chicago Bears and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium.

San Diego Charpers + 5 1/2 at Oakland Raiders

Washington Racists +3 at Philadelphia Eagles

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 v. Chicago Bears

Carolina Panthers -6 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Buffalo Bills -6 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

San Francisco 49ers +9 at Detroit Lions

Kansas City Chiefs -10 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Miami Dolphins -2 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

New England Patriots -3 at New York Jets

 Houston Texans -3 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Pittsburgh Steelers -10 at Baltimore Ravens

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at New Orleans Saints

Arizona Cardinals -4 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Seattle Seahawks -12 v. St. Louis Rams

New York Giants +7 at Minnesota Vikings

Denver Broncos -3 v. Cincinnati Bengals

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Seattle Seahawks -12 v. St. Louis Rams

Last Week's Record: 7-9
Year To Date: 114-103-5
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Big Bet Year to Date: 13-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($140)
Year to Date Winnings (Losses): $1,155

Picks of the Week

I had a decent week last week  Not amazing, but a winning week.  That was two in  a row.  A really good week this week will put me in great spirits heading into Christmas.

The NFL has already played 2 games this week, and I was conversing on Facebook with longtime reader Brent Bellinger, so he can vouch that I made picks prior to kickoff of those games.  Not that one win and push is much to brag about, but I strive to keep things accurate.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Just FYI - This week's games were really tough for me.  A large number of them I bounced back-and-forth before settling on my decision.

Tampa Bay +2 1/2 at St. Louis Rams
If only Winston showed up earlier.

New York Jets -3 at Dallas Cowboys
I try to avoid road favorites, but this one involved Matt Cassell.  How was I to know Kellen Moore would become involved?

Chicago Bears + 5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
The Bears have kept most of their games close this year, so 5 1/2 seems like a lot of points.  Plus, there is an actual chance of the Bears winning, so this is one underdog I feel comfortable selecting.

Baltimore Ravens + 6 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
This is not even close to the Ravens team we expected to see, but they play every game close, are at home, and getting almost a touchdown.  I feel the Chiefs should still win, but not by that much.  Plus, Lamarr Houston is out of the game, so it will be more difficult for the Chiefs to mount a huge pass rush, on which their defense relies.

Houston Texans + 1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
This is for the AFC South lead.  That is right, your read that correctly.  The winner of this battle of 6-7 Titans will be in first in the AFC South.  And to think of all of the vitriol us wannabe commentators have reserved for the NFC East.  Texans defense makes a couple of more plays.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 v. Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons are reeling, having lost 6 in a row and 7 of their last 8.  The Jaguars are 1 game out of first, and are suddenly an offensive juggernaut having scored 51 and 39 in their last 2 games.  This Bortles guy might be for real.

New England Patriots -14 v. Tennessee Titans
If you were an emerging young quarterback, would you want Belichick to game plan against you?  This game could be fairly close, but a late turnover by Mariota leads to a Patriots score which covers.

Carolina Panthers -4 at New York Giants
Cold and windy in New Jersey today, and the popular pick seems to be that the Giants are going to win outright.  But it is windy, and I trust Cam Newton's strong arm over Eli Manning's in weather conditions.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 at Washington Racists
My inability to understand the Racists is well documented, and the Bills are on the road.  But consider this, the Redskins are 1 of their last 6 in covering the spread the week after a win,  Plus, when Washington wins, Marcus will again thank me for being completely oblivious in my picks in the Washington games.  Karlos Williams returns today, giving Buffalo a nice 1-2 running attack with LeSean McCoy.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
The Raiders showed a lot of promise early, but despite last week's win have leveled out some.  Mike McCarthy took over play calling duties last week for the Packers, to tremendous results.

Seattle Seahawks -14 v. Cleveland Browns
So I have picked 4 road favorites already, I might as well make it two double digit favorites as well.  Seattle is clicking, and the Browns are the Browns.

Denver Broncos +6 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Yes, Pittsburgh's offense with Roethlisberger, Williams, Brown, Bryant, Wheaton and Miller have been amazing since Roethlisberger returned from injury, but Denver leads the NFL in total defense at 272.5 yards per game and scoring defense at 17.3 points per game.

Miami Dolphins +1 at San Diego Chargers
When two really bad teams play each other, I'll take the points, even if it is only 1.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 at San Francisco 49ers
Listen, I realize that Alabama quarterbacks haven't won in the NFL since Ken Stabler (editors note:  not fact-checked), but McCarron looked pretty good throwing the ball after being thrust into last week's game.  With a week of practice, and with A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert to catch passes, could he actually win?

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I might as well go for broke and make it 6 road favorites.  I really, really wanted to pick Philadelphia here, as the home team in the prime time game getting points, but I just don't trust Chip Kelly.

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 v. Detroit Lions
Not an exciting Monday night game at all, and that is a shame on Christmas Week.  I think the best game on Monday is going to be the Miami Beach Bowl between Western Kentucky and South Florida (which is not in Miami Beach, or even in South Florida).

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
The Raiders showed a lot of promise early, but despite last week's win have leveled out some.  Mike McCarthy took over play calling duties last week for the Packers, to tremendous results.

I was deciding between this game, and Denver +6 at Pittsburgh.  The smarter play between two road teams would be to select the team receiving points, especially one with a defense as tough as Denver's.  However, I could see a scenario where Pittsburgh wins by a touchdown, and I really do not see Oakland in this game, so Green Bay it is.

Last Week's Record:  9-7
Year-to-Date Record: 107-94-5
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 11-3
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: $280
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $1,295

Picks of the Week

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Just FYI - This week's games were really tough for me.  A large number of them I bounced back-and-forth before settling on my decision.

Minnesota Vikings +10 at Arizona
Just way too many points.  As always, I texted my cohorts with my pick on Thursday for verification purposes.

Chicago Bears -3 1/2 v. Washington Racists
The Racists have been  horrible on the road, but as I stated last week, the Redskins have absolutely flummoxed me this year.  So I will take the Bears out of respect for my friend Marcus, who would like to see Washington win.

Carolina Panthers -8 v. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons are falling, to the point where they may not even make the playoffs.  Panthers, obviously are playing great, but I am hesitant on giving the 8 points.  But then again, I believe in Cam Newton.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
This is a tough game to pick.  The Steelers are an offensive juggernaut right now, but then again, so are the Bengals.  I pick the Bengals because it seems that they have finally decided to start using Jeremy Hill again.  Yes, I know, Giovanni Bernard is more explosive, but Hill helps them use the clock and maintain possession.

San Francisco 49ers +1 1/2 at Cleveland Browns 
Yes, I am taking the west coast team traveling east and playing the early game, but it is against Cleveland, so another rule is more prominent: if the Browns are giving points, take them.

Jacksonville Jaguars -2 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
I have a bad feeling about this pick, as I fear I am putting too much weight on the throttling the Colts took last week, but I take Jacksonville because of Allen Robinson.

Kansas City Chiefs -10 1/2 v. San Diego Chargers
Another pick that makes me a bit queasy, but I think Kansas City is better than I believe most people think.  The Chiefs did roll the Chargers 33-3 just a few weeks ago.

New York Jets -7 v. Tennessee Titans
I believe in Ryan Fitzpatrick, at least when he throws to Brandon Marshall.  Plus, Mariota has no weapons at all on which he can rely.

Philadelphia Eagles -1 v. Buffalo Bills
In what is essentially a pick 'em, I will select the team that is in first place, even though the NFC East is a farce.  They just have too many weapons to be this bad.  With Ryan Mathews back, the Eagles should win.

Detroit Lions -3 at St. Louis Rams
I hate giving points on the road, but with St. Louis's unsettled quarterback situation, and with Todd Gurley struggling, I feel confident taking Detroit.

New Orleans Saints +5 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay can play, but I don't know if they are 6 points better than New Orleans.  The Saints are reeling having lost 4 in a row, but they only lost by 3 against Carolina.  Yes, that game was in New Orleans, but I think New Orleans feels they have something to prove.

Seattle Seahawks -11 at Baltimore Ravens
I figure that if I am going to violate 1 gambling, I might as well violate all of them, in one single pick; West Coast team going east and playing the early game, road favorites, and double digit spread.  I think Jimmy Clausen will be the starting QB for Baltimore, who will run, run, run, if that is the case.

Denver Broncos -6 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
I initially thought to take the points and the Raiders, but I changed my mind because last week when the Broncos played horribly, they still won by 2 touchdowns.  This game is at home, and I think they win comfortably by 9 or 10.

Green Bay Packers -6 v. Dallas Cowboys
It seems like the right time to put all of this Dallas Cowboys in the playoff talk to rest.

New England Patriots -5 at Houston Texans
Yes, the Patriots do not have Edelman and are still likely not to have Gronkowski, and they have lost two in a row.  That is precisely why I believe they will win this game.

Miami Dolphins +2 v. New York Giants
What a horrible game to watch on Monday night.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Philadelphia Eagles -1 v. Buffalo Bills
In what is essentially a pick 'em, I will select the team that is in first place, even though the NFC East is a farce.  They just have too many weapons to be this bad.  With Ryan Mathews back, the Eagles should win.

This is my big bet because the points don't really matter in this game, and I am that confident in Ryan Mathews.  He should have been the starter in this offense all season.

Last Week's Record:  9-7
Year-to-Date Record: 98-87-5
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 10-3
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: $280
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $1,015

Picks of the Week

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Green Bay Packers -2 1/2 at Detroit Lions
Hail Mary!

Chicago Bears -6 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
Blaine Gabbert!

Houston Texans + 3 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
Houston can smell the playoffs, and I think they will win their division at this point.  Buffalo is much improved from last year, but they seem to have already peaked this year.

Cincinnati Bengals -8 at Cleveland Browns
Not only am I picking the dreaded road favorite, but they are also favored by more than 1 touchdown.  But, I feel like we might even see Spurgeon Wynn back at QB for Cleveland here sometime soon, so I'll give the points.

Baltimore Ravens +4 at Miami Dolphins
Baltimore's games have all been incredibly close, and the Dolphins seem to be unraveling.  Baltimore's run defense bottles up Lamar Miller (as does the Dolphins playcalling), and even if Miami wins, this game will be close.

Seattle Seahawks -2 at Minnesota Vikings
I have gone back-and-forth on this game all weekend, but it seems like Seattle's offensive line is playing better, keeping Wilson from being hit as much.  The secondary - believe it or not - is a bit of a liability for the Seahawks right now, but Minnesota does not have the weapons to take advantage of that.

New York Jets -2 1/2 at New York Giants
The battle for the Meadowlands.  Fitzpatrick throws two touchdown passes to Brandon Marshall to beat the Giants.

Arizona Cardinals -4 1/2 at St. Louis Rams
The Cardinals are flying high, and the Rams secondary has been suspect, so I expect Larry Fitzgerald to have a huge game.  The Cardinals defense keeps the St. Louis offense from doing much damage at all.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 1 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
Yes, I believe in Jameis.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 at Tennessee Titans
The Titans just doe not have any true offensive weapons to help Marcus Mariota, well, OK, maybe Delanie Walker.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Oakland Raiders
Oakland has cooled off after their surprising start, and although they seem poised to have a great future, Kansas City is having a great present.  Plus, Kansas City is one of the two teams that has confounded me the most this year.  So, no more doubting.

Denver Broncos -5 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
Another road favorite, but I couldn't help it.  The Chargers are horrible this year.

Carolina Panthers -6 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
See the above Denver note, but New Orleans has been just a bit better than horrible.

New England Patriots -8 v. Philadelphia Eagles
The most disparate matchup this week, as Belichick is coming off their first loss, which we all know will not sit well with the Patriots.  Chip Kelly seems to have lost the Eagles and they are going backwards.  I was just hoping for a 6 1/2 point spread just in case Philadelphia scores a late TD to lost by 7.

Indianapolis Colts +9 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Another big spread, and I just cannot see Indianapolis stopping Pittsburgh's offense, but Matt Hasselback is 4-0 since starting for the Colts.  Pittsburgh by 6,

Washington Racists -3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
Along with the Chiefs, the Racists are the team that has perplexed me the most this year, and I know I should take them at home as they have been playing great at home, but, I don't want to do it.  But I have to.  The Cowboys are 0-7 in games in which Tony Romo doesn't start.  So, it's the Racists.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Denver Broncos -5 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
Another road favorite, but I couldn't help it.  The Chargers are horrible this year.

I hate giving points for my Big Bet of the week, but I just had to take the red-hot Broncos, along with the resurgent (hopefully) C.J. Anderson against Phillip Rivers and absolutely nobody.

Last Week's Record:  8-8
Year-to-Date Record: 89-82-5
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-3
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: $70
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $735