Picks of the Thanksgiving Week

Happy Thanksgiving.  One of the things that I am thankful for is you loyal (and not so loyal) readers.  Most of you that read regularly I know, but every once in a while someone will come up to me to mention that they read this column every week (or close to every week), and I am humbled that you are interested in my musings.  I do this not just to keep track of my picks, but as a way to practice my (non-work related) writings, and to add a little humor to my own life.  The fact that others take time out to enjoy (which may be a little strong) is a bonus.  Thank you.

A small step backward last week, but at least I got the big bet correct.  Back to lots of football this week with no teams on  a bye week, so 16 total games, starting with 3 today.  Enjoy your turkey, spaghetti, or whatever food you traditionally eat, and watch some NFL football.  Just don't overdo it today, as there are lots more this weekend!

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Say it with me please - don't take intradivisional, road favorites, especially on a short week.  Plus, Detroit has won three games in a row plus their last four Thanksgiving Day games.  Minnesota has both the fifth ranked offense and defense, and has won six in a row since their loss to ... you guessed it ... Detroit.

Los Angeles Chargers -1 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
Going into this writing, my plan was to simply follow all of my standard betting rules, and a road favorite on a short week was not in the cards, but Dallas has only scored 16 points (with only one touchdown) since the Ezekial Elliott suspension, and the Chargers have won four of their last six.

Washington Racists -7 v. New York Giants
Again, a short week, and even with New York's victory last week, I am still completely unimpressed with the Giants this year.  Home team big.

Chicago Bears +13 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I do not expect the Bears to win this game, but Chicago does have the fifth best rushing game in the NFL, and should be able to keep the ball some and limit Philadelphia's possessions.  Philadelphia's defense is first against the run, but a lot of that can be attributed to the fact that Philly has led in most of the games forcing their opponents to pass the ball.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 at Atlanta Falcons
The Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Buccaneers are certainly not afraid to take chances with the ball, and will likely score enough points against Atlanta's defense to cover the spread.  If Devonta Freeman was available, it would enable Atlanta to use a more balanced offense to work up the score on the 29th ranked defense in Tampa, but he likely isn't playing.  So, Atlanta by 7.

Cincinnati Bengals -8 v. Cleveland Browns
At home, against Cleveland.

Tennessee Titans -3 at Indianapolis Colts
If the Titans want to make the playoffs, they have to beat the teams they should beat, that includes the Colts, who are 25th offensively in points scored, and last defensively in points allowed.

Buffalo Bills +10 at Kansas City Chiefs
Tyrod Taylor is back, and Kansas City couldn't even score 10 points against the Giants, much less 10 points MORE.  The Chiefs are reeling offensively and need to right the ship quickly, and Buffalo looks to bounce back from the short-lived Nathan Peterman experience.

Miami Dolphins +16 1/2 at New England Patriots
New England wins this game easily, but the Dolphins' individual's pride as NFL players show through as they get the back-door cover by scoring a touchdown in the last two minutes to lost by 14.

Carolina Panthers -5 at New York Jets
Carolina has won 3 in a row since an inexplicable loss to the Chicago Bears, and Cam Newton has played more like Cam Newton since the Kelvin Benjamin trade has forced the Panthers to be more creative offensively.  The Panthers' second ranked defense should feast on the 25th ranked Jets offense - although surprisingly Josh McCown's QBR is over 10 points higher than Newton's.

San Francisco 49ers +6 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
This pick at first glance seems ridiculous.  However, despite being 1-9, has played all but about 3 games extremely close, and Seattle is without basically their entire defensive backfield.  Add to that San Francisco's propensity to blitz the quarterback against Seattle's struggling offensive line, and we might have the makings of an upset.  I am not going that far as to predict a win for San Francisco, but they do keep it close.

New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are 20th against the rush on defense, and New Orleans is second in rushing, at 144 yards per game.  New Orleans is also second in passing yards per game, 1st in total yards, and 3rd in points.  Too much firepower for the Rams defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars -5 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Jacksonville has won 4 in a row and 5 of its last 6.  Arizona has Blaine Gabbert starting.

Oakland Raiders -5 v. Denver Broncos
I do not like this game.  I do not like this line.  I am picking Oakland because they are at home, they were embarrassed last week by New England, and because Denver is in even worse shape than Denver.

Pittsburgh Steelers -14 v. Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh's offense is clicking with Le'veon Bell leading the NFL in rushing and Antonio Brown leading the NFL in receiving yards.  The Packers, on the other hand, are led by a quarterback with a 63 QBR.  I wonder if Green Bay - which at the time of Aaron Rodgers' injury was in playoff contention - could have used a Super Bowl caliber quarterback that was (and is) available for signing?

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Houston Texans
Baltimore at 5-5 is in second place in the AFC North, whereas the Houston Texans have Tom Savage starting.

Big Bet

Cincinnati Bengals -8 v. Cleveland Browns
The Hue Jackson drama has reached its apex, as it appears he could be fired as early as after this game.  I really wanted to take the home underdog in the Lions, but I am afraid of a short week big bet.  Others that I considered include the Jacksonville Jaguars (-5 1/2 at Arizona); Carolina Panthers (-5 at New York Jets); and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10 at Atlanta), but all three were on the road.

Last Week's Record: 6-7-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  77-76-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($20)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($605)

Picks of the Week

Inching over .500 for the season in record (though behind in $$).  I would say that perhaps I am figuring out this season, but we all know that is not true.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers -7 v. Tennessee Titans
Finally, a home favorite on a Thursday night with a number that I feel fine with giving.  I would ordinarily have made this my "Big Bet", except that weird things happen on a Thursday night.  Glad they didn't this time.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Detroit Lions
The Bears have played favorites well at home this year (see Atlanta, Pittsburgh), so I will take the points. It doesn't hurt that Detroit isn't significantly great at anything on offense (15th total yards, 29th rushing).  They are the 6th highest scoring team, so not sure that makes sense.

Jacksonville Jaguars -7 at Cleveland Browns
Other than the fact this is Cleveland, we could have had an interesting battle with the top rated rush offense (Jacksonville) versus the 4th rated rush defense (Cleveland).  Too bad Jacksonville's defense will overwhelm Cleveland's offense.

Baltimore Ravens -2 at Green Bay Packers
I don't like giving up the points here, but I feel Danny Woodhead will make one or two plays to secure the victory.  Baltimore's biggest liability is their rush defense, but Green Bay has a next-to-nothing rush offense which is unlikely to take advantage of that liability.

Arizona Cardinals +2 at Houston Texans
What an awful game.  Gimme the points and pray for rain.

Los Angeles Rams +1 at Minnesota Vikings
No joke, this is a battle of two of the titans of the NFC, both leading their respective divisions at 7-2.  It's the Rams 3rd ranked offense in total yards - and 1st in points - versus the Vikings 5th rated defense in total yards - but 15th in points.  I'll take the bonus point and the Rams.

New Orleans Saints -9 1/2 v. Washington Racists
I really, really didn't want to pick the Saints here because that line just seems a bit too large.  If it was 6 1/2 or 7 - I would take the Saints and their second ranked offense easily.  However, seeing that the Racists are 26th in the league in points allowed at 25.8 per game, I expect New Orleans to get at least 35.

Kansas City Chiefs -10 at New York Giants
Not a good feeling with this pick, but it seems like the Giants are getting worse and worse each week.  This might be exactly what Kansas City needs to get back on track.  I expect Travis Kelce to have  a HUGE game.

Miami Dolphins +2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Miami is floundering, but the Buccaneers are in even worse shape.  If Cutler is going to get going with Landry and Parker, this is the game to do it, as Tampa has the 29th rated pass defense in the league.

Buffalo Bills +7 at Los Angeles Chargers
From what I hear, the team (meaning players, not administration) really like Nathan Peterman.  We will see if that faith is rewarded in Peterman's first NFL start.  Perhaps he, and Kelvin Benjamin, can jump start the league's 30th ranked passing offense.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Denver Broncos
Andy Dalton has not lit up the statistics like he has in the past, but he does have an 88.2 QBR, whereas the Broncos defense is 29th in points allowed at 26.6 (while being 4th in total yards).  This can only be explained by losing the field possession battle thanks to the likes of Brock Osweiler, who will be starting today!.

Oakland Raiders +7 v. New England Patriots
Ever stat says to pick the Patriots in this one, except for New England's 32nd (read: last) ranked defense and 32nd ranked pass defense.  Is it time for Carr and Amari Cooper to have another stellar game?  I think so.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 at Dallas Cowboys
I know what you are saying.  "Pepster, why pick a road intra-divisional favorite?"  Did you see the Cowboys offensive line last week?  Brutal!  Plus, the Eagles are third defensively in third down conversion percentage, while being 1st against the rush.  Add to that, Philadelphia has scored at least 20 points in 13 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL.

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
Seattle has won five of their last 6, and are 3-1 at home this season.  The Seahawks will be without Kam Chancellor the rest of the season, but the Falcons will be without Devonta Freeman this week as well.  Chancellor's injury hurts more long term, but the Freeman in jury could be devastating for the Falcons against the 10th ranked rushing defense.

Byes:  Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet

Philadelphia Eagles -6 at Dallas Cowboys
I know what you are saying.  "Pepster, why pick a road intra-divisional favorite?"  Did you see the Cowboys offensive line last week?  Brutal!  Plus, the Eagles are third defensively in third down conversion percentage, while being 1st against the rush.  Add to that, Philadelphia has scored at least 20 points in 13 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL.
This was a difficult week for me to decide my "Big Bet" because nothing really jumped out at me except for the Thursday night game.  Not sure why I am taking this game except for the performance last week by the Cowboys.  Other games under consideration were the Jacksonville Jaguars, and Buffalo Bills.

Last Week's Record: 7-6
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  71-69-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-5
Last Two Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($125)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($585)

Picks of the Week

An absolutely great week last week at 8-3-2.  If it wasn't for a meaningless Dolphins late touchdown to push, a nine-win week would have been amazing.  Let's see if we can't keep this going.  I know better than to say that I am finally figuring out this NFL season, as that would come back to haunt me.  So, I won't.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Arizona Cardinals +6 v. Seattle Seahawks
I am not picking a (1) intradivisional; (2) road favorite; (3) on a short week.  Turns out the damn blocked extra point by Jeremy Lane at the end preserved the push.

Chicago Bears -5 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
A big number, even with Aaron Rodgers out of the game, but the Bears are a solid 8th in defense in the NFL going against the 25th ranked Green Bay offense.  All Chicago needs is a couple of Jordan Howard runs to cover this spread.

New Orleans Saints -3 at Buffalo Bills
New Orleans has the second ranked total offense (3rd in passing/7th in rushing).  Buffalo's defense is 23rd overall (26th against the pass).  Look for Drew Brees to have a monster game!

Detroit Lions -11 v. Cleveland Browns
When Cleveland is involved, I am no longer looking at the number.  Wow, I wish I didn't - that is a big number.  I'll take it anyway.

Pittsburgh Steelers -10 at Indianapolis Colts
Another big number, but I am going to give the 10 points here.  The Colts are last in the NFL in giving up points at 28.9 per game, and at 31st in the league in passing defense, Antonio Brown will literally run free all over the field.

Jacksonville Jaguars -5 v. Los Angeles Chargers
I will not pick this west coast team travelling east to play the early game, especially when facing the 3rd best total defense in the NFL.  Gordon could find some running room, but not enough.

New York Jets -2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We might actually see a shootout - with both quarterbacks going over 300 yards this game.  In the end, I trust the Jets defensive line more than any segment of Tampa's defense.

Cincinnati Bengals -4 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
Just a feeling on this one.A.J. Green owes everyone a big game after his stupid ejection last week.

Washington Racists + 1 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota's defense is statistically stout at 4th in the NFL overall (and 3rd in rush defense), but the Racists defense have looked very promising in the last few weeks as well.  Should be a close game, so I'll take the points.

L.A. Rams -12 v. Houston Texans
Not sure which is worst Tom Savage or Brock Osweiler.  (Hint, it's Osweiler).  Rams defense feasts, and the offense scores enough to cover.

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Atlanta Falcons
I know that Elliott is not going top play, but the Cowboys have won three straight while the Falcons have lsot four of their last five.  McFadden and Morris are solid enough pros to keep the ball moving forward and likely to beat Atlanta outright.

San Francsico 49ers +2 1/2 v. New York Giants
I don't care.  I am not watching this game.Gimme points.

New England Patriots -7 1/2 at Denver Broncos
Complete opposites here:  New England is first in total yards gained, and Denver is second in total yards allowed (4th in passing and 5th in rushing).  New England is 32nd in total yards allowed.  The difference, Brock Osweiler is starting for Denver - so they may not even score at all this game.

Miami Dolphins +9 at Carolina Panthers
I do not believe that the Dolphins will win this game, but I also don't believe Carolina will win by 10 points either.  Both teams are statistically poor on defense (Miami 31st and Carolina 21st) but both are good on defense (Carolina 1st and Miami 10th).  Should make for a close defensive battle.

Byes:  Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles

Big Bet

Jacksonville Jaguars -5 v. Los Angeles Chargers

This made the most sense to me with Fournette coming back to the lineup - likely with a vengeance.  I expect the defense to swallow up the Chargers offense.  Other games under consideration New England -7 1/2 but I didn't want to give up that many points on the road; Dallas +3, and New Orleans Saints (but again, giving up points on the road).

Last Week's Record: 8-3-2
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  64-63-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-4
Last Two Week's Winnings (Losses):  $620
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($460)

Picks of the Week

So, two consecutive OK weeks to try to slowly dig my way out of the hole I build for myself.  Let's see if we can't keep this going.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New York Jets +3 v. Buffalo Bills
A home underdog on a short week?  Yes, please, especially against a team that doesn't score that much anyway.

Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta has not looked that great this year, and Carolina is home, getting points against a divisional opponent.  The wildcard is we do not know how the Panthers are going to react to the Kelvin Benjamin trade.

Jacksonville Jaguars -6 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
The number 1 rushing team in the league hosting the number 30 rushing team in the league.  Since Cincinnati cannot run, they will have to try to pass against the best passing defense in the league.  Ok, so now I hear that Fournette is suspended, meaning the game will depend upon Blake Bortles and Chris Ivory.  My pick is now Cincinnati Bengals + 6 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

New York Giants + 5 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
I do not want to pick the Giants.  I am being forced to do so because they are a home favorite, hosting a west coast team playing the early game on the east coast.  You know what, I am going to edit this pick because of the extra hour gained last night.  My pick is now:  Los Angeles Rams -5 1/2 at New York Giants.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 v. Denver Broncos
So the Eagles are the number 1 team in the league in offensive third down conversions, whereas the Broncos are the number 1 team in the league in defense on third downs.  That being said, Brock Osweiler is starting, so I am picking Philadelphia.

Indianapolis Colts +6 at Houston Texans
Yes, the DeShaun Watson injury hurts a lot.  Duh.  Enough that they lose to the Colts?  Perhaps not, but the Colts can keep it close.

New Orleans Saints -7 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Alvin Kamara is coming into his own, to the point where the Saints are a respectable 13th in the league in rushing.  Tampa Bay is second in the league in passing (outpacing Drew Brees and the Saints at 4th), but the Saints defense is appreciably better than Tampa's.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Baltimore Ravens
I don't think that we can tell a lot from the Ravens based upon last week's annihilation of the Dolphins.  I just feel Tennessee is better than Baltimore.

Washington Racists +8 at Seattle Seahawks
Washington is 2-0 versus the NFC West this year and have won their last two games in Seattle.  I don't think they are going to win today, but 8 points seems a lot given that I feel the Racists' defense can be stout, especially up front against a pedestrian Seahawks offensive line.

San Francisco 49ers +2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
Honestly, who cares?  Give me points in this one, whichever team it is.

Kansas City Chiefs +2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
At some point the Ezekial Elliott yo-yo train has to affect the Cowboys, even if Elliott does play.

Oakland Raiders -3 at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are last in the NFL in points and yards per game.  Enough said.

Detroit Lions -2 at Green Bay Packers
Not just a road favorite, but a road intra-divsional favorite.  Still, the Packers are 0-2 with Aaron Rodgers, and I don't think they can win this one either.

Byes:  Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers

Big Bet

Washington Racists + 8 at Seattle Seahawks

This just made the most sense to me because the Racists can be formidable up front on defense and the Seahawks offensive line is suspect, despite the acquisitions of Duane Brown.  I think Washington will keep it under a touchdown.  My other choices was Carolina receiving points at home, which I strongly considered, but I am worried that the Panthers offense might sputter without the threat of Kelvin Benjamin.  I also looked at the Rams and Oakland, but they are giving up points on the road, and the Colts are receiving points as well, I just don't trust them.

Last Two Week's Record: 15-12-1
Last Two Week's Big Bet: 1-1
Year-to-Date Record:  56-60-3
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-4
Last Two Week's Winnings (Losses):  $175
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,080)