Thursday, November 26, 2009

HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYBODY!!!


Enjoy your day, and everything that you are thankful for, like NFL Football!

Here is an abbreviated version of my picks for this week, containing only today's games. I will combine this post with Sunday's game picks later this week.

Green Bay Packers -12 at Detroit Lions
Never take a double digit favorite in a division game, unless the starting quarterback is injured, that team gave up a gazillion yards to the Browns, and, well, that team is the Lions.

Oakland Raiders +13 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
The Raiders have been playing remarkably strong, and although they are winning, the Cowboys have started their Romo-led December swoon a little bit early.

New York Giants -6 at Denver Broncos
Both teams have slipped from their early starts, but the Giants might just be a bit too strong for the Broncos right now.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Picks of the Week



Here are this week's, "Picks of the Week", this time with time for a little thought to put into the selections. No more byes, so we have a full slate. Hopefully that will halt the min-slide I have been on. If anything, last week did see my first push of the year. Thanks Belichek! (Please not sarcasm).

As a refresher, I use the same website for the betting lines for consistency. If they are different than your lines, too bad. Standard 100 bet with a 10% vig for losing. For one game each week, I will "bet" $250. Totals for the season will be tabulated.

On to the picks ...

Carolina Panthers -3 1/ v. Miami Dolphins
With Ronnie Brown hurt and Carolina on a bit of a roll, I thought for sure this was a lock. Whoops. Bad start.

Indianapolis Colts -1 at Baltimore Ravens
This should be an excellent game. But for some reason, Indianapolis seems blessed this year. I am not saying they will go undefeated, but with Belichek coaching as if he were Bruce Coslet.

Atlanta Falcons +7 at New York Giants
Atlanta can control the ball, and with Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, has enough firepower to test the Giants secondary. The Giants, well, aren't playing like the Giants. I believe a touchdown is too many points. I'll take 'em.

Minnesota Vikings -10 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Vikings just have way too much talent for Seattle this year.

Pittsburgh Steelers -10 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
With the loss of Dwayne Bowe for 4 weeks, every team can just roll its coverage toward Chris Chambers. Pittsburgh's defense is just too tough for the newly-minted started Jamal Charles.

Jacksonville Jaguars -9 v. Buffalo Bills
The Bills run defense is horrendous, and the Jaguars have, well, nothing more than Maurice Jones-Drew.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
Jay Cutler threw 4 interceptions, and the Bears were driving for a winning score when he threw his fifth. That must mean San Francisco is not that good. Frank Gore could still have a great game, but not good enough.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Did I really just take Detroit? Giving points? Really? Yes. Yes I did. Cleveland will not stop Kevin Smith today. (Did you hear me fantasy teams - you will not stop Kevin Smith!)

Washington Redskins +11 at Dallas Cowboys
I believe that Dallas will win this game, but the Redskins defense is much stronger than people would like to believe, given how bad the team is overall. I'll take the points on this one.

Arizona Cardinals -9 1/2 at St. Louis Rams
I really didn't know where to go on this game. St. Louis has kept games close. It's defense is playing better each week, and Steven Jackson is having a phenomenal season, albeit in obscurity. However, I think Arizona has found a running game in Beenie Man, and that could make for a scary, scary offense. Arizona just needs to play Wells full time, instead of alternating him with Hightower and Tackleberry.

San Diego Chargers -5 1/2 at Denver Broncos
LaDanian Tomlinson might be back. Chris Simms is.

New England Patriots -10 1/2 v. New York Jets
They have to bounce back after last week's debacle.

Cincinnati Bengals -9 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
This line would probably have been 12 if Russell was starting. Instead, it is Bruce Gradkowski at the helm. At least the Raiders still have Sebastian Janikowski. The Benson injury scares me a bit, but only about covering the spread.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Chicago Bears
As I said last week, I am no longer betting on this Bears team.

Houston Texans -4 v. Tennessee Titans
I expect 2,000 yards of total offense.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

New Orleans -10 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Saints have been skating by the last few games, or so it seems. However, I saw the Buccaneers play in person last week, and they are no match for the Saints. Josh Freeman does offer them a pretty good looking future at QB, but they just don't have the weapons for him yet.


Previous Week's Record: 7-6-1 (0-1 Big Bet)
Year to Date: 66-49-1 (4-4)
Previous Weeks Winnings (Losses): ($235)
Year to Date Winnings (Losses): $985

Friday, November 20, 2009

The Ole College Try

So Sinickal has called me out about my post that Terrence Cody deserves the Heisman Trophy. He absolutely does. PERIOD!!! However, I know how the whole Heisman voting works, so Cody doesn't have a prayer. So, given that the season is beginning to wrap up with Rivalry Weeks being this weekend and next weekend, I will replace my usual Heisman Watch/Recap of games with an actual sample of what my Heisman ballot would look like if I had a vote (and if I could vote for 5 spots rather than the usual 3).

Despite the fact that I believe Cody deserves the award, he will not get my 1st place vote, as I want to maximize the points for the most deserving candidate out of those that actually have a chance to win. Here is my ballot, bottom to top.

5. Kellen Moore, QB - Boise State. He leads the nation in passing efficiency with a 172.49 QB rating. He has thrown for a nation leading 32 touchdowns, despite 214 fewer passing attempts than second place Case Keenum of Houston (31 TDs in 514 attempts compared to 32 TDs in 300 attempts for Moore). Plus, Moore deserves to get some votes to offset the fact that Boise State has absolutely no chance to play in the BCS championship game, despite its undefeated season (although it should be in a BCS bowl game, likely the Fiesta again).

4. Terrence Cody, DT - Alabama. Please see this column, where I exalt the virtues of Mr. Cody.

3. Mark Ingram, RB - Alabama. Ingram is Sinickal's selection for Heisman at this point, and a strong case could be made for Ingram, as he is 5th in nation in rushing yards and, more importantly, leads the SEC in rushing. He has 1297 yards at a 6.7 yards clip. However, he only has 10 touchdowns, which is significantly less than other top Running Backs, and Alabama's offense is not that scary in total, anyway. He looks like he will be phenomenal next year, and an early season Heisman favorite. However, this year, he isn't even the best running back. That title belongs to ...


2. C.J. Spiller, RB - Clemson. Spiller only has 836 yards rushing this season, but he also has 382 yards receiving, and 1.2 million return yards. (OK - only 734 yards). He also has 4 return touchdowns this year. You read that correctly - 4! And in every game he plays, he is the best player on the field. But he isn't the only multi-threat player in the game. The best multi-threat player in the game is also my Heisman winner to date. This year's Heisman Trophy should go to ...


1. JORDAN SHIPLEY, WR - Texas. Shipley has the statistics: 81 receptions (6h in the nation), 1,096 yards (5th in the nation) and 8 TDs (14th in the nation), as well as 303 punt return yards and 2 punt returns for TD. But more importantly, he is in control of every Texas game. You may turn on the television to watch Colt McCoy, but your eye will migrate to the apparently always open Shipley. He is the one guy every Longhorn opponent has to account for, otherwise it will be a long game, and Texas opponents have had several long games.

Notice that none of my top 5 include the pre-season top 3 of Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow.

Onto the rest of the college football world.

MY NEW FAVORITE PLAYER

DeAndre McDaniel - S - Clemson - I still think that Eric Berry is the best safety, and most likely the best defensive player, in the NCAA, but I have seen McDaniel play 2 whole games, and snippets of others. He is a ball hawk in the true sense of the word, He has 8 interceptions, but he also has 70 tackles, showing he isn't afraid to stick his nose into the running game.

PREDICTED BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME MATCHUP

Alabama v. Texas - Not sure anybody can stop Texas, and obviously, barring a huge upset of Alabama by Auburn or Florida by Florida State, the SEC Champion will be in this game. Right now, that looks like Alabama.

WHAT SEMI LIKELY EVENT TCU, BOISE STATE AND CINCINNATI NEED TO OCCUR THIS WEEK

My assumption of Iowa losing occurred. So now that they are out of the picture for the Championship, TCU, Boise State and Cincinnati all need this to occur this week (Keep in mind other parameters can be met in subsequent weeks, this is just for this week).

Kansas, whose players rally behind Coach Mangino, halt a 5 game slide and defeat Texas. Let's face it, this is much more likely that Chattanooga defeating Alabama or Florida International defeating Florida.

PREDICTED BCS BOWL GAMES

BCS Championship Game - See Above.

Fiesta Bowl - Boise State v. Penn State
Orange Bowl - Georgia Tech v. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl - Oregon v. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl - Florida v. TCU

The Fiesta Bowl will need a big travelling team to counteract Boise State's presence. Penn State is just too attractive of a candidate. Much more attractive than Iowa or Pittsburgh. Oklahoma State could be an option if the beat Oklahoma next week, but without Zac Robinson, that is much less likely.

The Orange Bowl is hoping for a Georgia Tech victory over Clemson in the ACC Championship game. That could pit an undefeated Cincinnati against a one-loss Georgia Tech team. Remember Cincinnati beat Virginia Tech here last year. Of course, Cincinnati needs to beat Pittsburgh in the league, and season, finale to qualify as the Big East Champion.

The Rose Bowl will pit the Big Ten Champion (Ohio State) versus the Pac-10 Champion (likely Oregon, but Stanford, Oregon State and Arizona still in the mix - with Arizona and Oregon playing this week.

The Sugar Bowl will take the SEC second place team (in my scenario Florida), and pit a one loss SEC team against the likely undefeated TCU.

TRIVIA QUESTION OF THE WEEK

C.J Spiller has 4 total return touchdowns (both kickoff and punt returns combined) this season, and 7 for his career. What is the NCAA record for most return touchdowns in a career, with at least one touchdown return for kickoff and punt? Bonus if you can name who holds the record. Place your guesses in the comments.

LAST WEEK'S TRIVIA ANSWER

Last entry's trivia question was, "USC was torched by Oregon on Halloween evening, October 31. Losing on Halloween allowed USC to keep one streak alive. How many consecutive games have the Trojans won in the month of November?" The answer was 28, before last week's obliteration at the hands of Stanford.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH

3. California v. Stanford - Not only is this a big rivalry game, Stanford needs it to stay in the Pac-10 championship hunt.

2. Oregon v. Arizona - Oregon can win the Pac-10, and they are simply exciting to watch. Arizona has come out of nowhere.

1. Harvard v. Yale - THE GAME! Enough said.

Sunday, November 15, 2009

Picks of the Week



Here are this week's, "Picks of the Week", without analysis as I have to leave for the Dolphins-Buccaneers classic in about 30 minutes

As a refresher, I use the same website for the betting lines for consistency. If they are different than your lines, too bad. Standard 100 bet with a 10% vig for losing. For one game each week, I will "bet" $250. Totals for the season will be tabulated.

On to the picks ...

Even if you don't believe it ...

San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Chicago Bears - can be verified by friends, when I just said, I don't think I want to bet on the Bears for the rest of the year.

Atlanta Falcons -1 at Carolina Panthers

Denver Broncos -3 1/2 at Washington Redskins

Tennessee Titans -9 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

New Orleans -12 1/2 at St. Louis Rams

Cincinnati Bengals + 7 at. Pittsburgh Steelers

Jacksonville Jaguars +6 1/2 at New York Jets

Minnesota Vikings -16 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Miami Dolphins -10 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Oakland Raiders -1 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Arizona Cardinals -9 v. Seattle Seahawks

Philadelphia Eagles +1 at San Diego Chargers

New England Patriots +1 at Indianapolis Colts

Baltimore -10 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Dallas Cowboys -3 at Green Bay Packers

Previous Week's Record: 6-7 (1-0 Big Bet)
Year to Date: 59-43 (4-3)
Previous Weeks Winnings (Losses): ($20)
Year to Date Winnings (Losses): $1220

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Random Thoughts

A short post of random thoughts on the college football action Saturday. Some of these could be individual posts, but...ah screw it. Here are the thoughts:
  • I was watching the crawl during the GaTech - Wake Forest game yesterday and noted that the Oklahoma - Nebraska game was on. Wait, what? This use to be one of the go to games of the year! It is staggering how far the mighty have fallen

  • Speaking of the mighty falling, how about Notre Dame losing to Navy for the second time in three years. Oh, and both in South Bend. How Charlie Weiss keeps his job is beyond me. That team is under talented and underachieving

  • Back to that GaTech win. Paul Johnson went for it on 4th and 1, in OT, at home and down by three. One of the ballsiest calls you will ever see. I can't think of another coach that wouldn't have just kicked the field goal and lived to play another OT. Well maybe Les Miles

  • Oh, and LSU - Alabama...This is the first year in a long time that I am not sure that the SEC has the best team in the nation. I don't know who is, but I am pretty sure that it is not Florida, Alabama or LSU

  • Here are some teams that definitely are not the best team in the nation; Cincinnati, Boise State, Iowa, and TCU. Again, I don't know who the best team is, but I have have named seven who aren't. Even my playoff format would solve this problem. At least, I don't think it would

  • Iowa, like the rest of the Big Eleven, stinks on a stick

  • The injury to the Oregon RB going into the endzone was as fascinating as any that I have seen in a few years. I was both screaming at how good a play he made and screaming because I thought he died

  • I would be remiss if I didn't note that either USC is way overrated or Oregon play the game of their lives last week. I am inclined to think that USC is overrated. You can't continue to put 10 players a year into the NFL and maintain your prominence

  • Who is this years Heisman Trophy frontrunner? I think it is Mark Ingrahm of Alabama, but who knows. Pepster wanted me to acknowledge the Alabama DT with all the blocked FG's this year. Yeah, I don't think so.

  • I will say this about Pepster, Hopps, and myself, we are alums of some very insignificant college programs. Period. Makes it difficult to trash talk on any given Saturday

  • How bad is it for me you ask? I had to root for Syracuse, led by a Duke point guard, against a Dave Wannstadt led Pittsburgh team. Syracuse is awful so it was a certain loss, I hate Paulus and hate having to root for him, and the only thing I hate more is Dave Wannstadt. He is the antichrist for what he did to the Chicago Bears. That, my friends, is the Tennessee Triple. Thankfully, I gargled with sulfuric acid last night to reduce my pain.

You know what, I am old and I should just start watching soccer. It is better for my health.

Picks of the Week



Back on the winning track, albeit barely, after two subpar weeks. Time to continue the streak. Here are this week's, "Picks of the Week".

As a refresher, I use the same website for the betting lines for consistency. If they are different than your lines, too bad. Standard 100 bet with a 10% vig for losing. For one game each week, I will "bet" $250. Totals for the season will be tabulated.

On to the picks ...

Green Bat Packers -9 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is bad, and their defense is no match for this Green Bay offense.

Miami Dolphins +10 1/2 at New England Patriots
New England might be ready for the "Wildcat", at least compared to last year, but Miami is a much better team than a double digit spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars -6 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Thank God I do not have to worry about watching this game.

Houston Texans +9 at Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have no secondary remaining. Even if the Colts win, Andre Johnson should have a big enough game to keep this within a touchdown.

Baltimore Ravens -3 at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are not going to surprise the Ravens this game, and with Odom out of the game, they probably will not have the same pass rush as they mounted in the first game.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Arizona Cardinals
I really did not know where to go for this game, except that Warner is coming off a bad game, and Boldin has not yet shown himself to be Anquan Boldin yet this year due to the high ankle sprain.

New Orleans Saints -13 v. Carolina Panthers
I keep hearing how Carolina is going to run the ball and keep possession away from New Orleans. How did that work out for the Dolphins?

Detroit Lions +10 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
A boring, close game. I'll take the points.

San Diego Chargers +5 at New York Giants
The Giants secondary has proven to be suspect, and I look for Phillip Rivers to have a very strong game. Look for Antonio Gates to shine as well. The Chargers suspect defense has actually been improving throughout the year.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 v. Dallas Cowboys
The Eagles have shown that they are a legitimate contender this year. Dallas hasn't. This game could go a long way to determining which team will be in the driver's seat for the NFC East.

Pittsburgh Steelers - 1 at Denver Broncos
I am still one of the doubters of the Broncos.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Atlanta Falcons -9 v. Washington Redskins
As if anyone didn't know, the Redskins are in serious trouble. The Falcons are cruising into the playoffs.

Previous Week's Record: 7-6 (0-1 Big Bet)
Year to Date: 53-36 (3-3)
Previous Weeks Winnings (Losses): ($125)
Year to Date Winnings (Losses): $1240

Friday, November 6, 2009

The Ole College Try

Here at We Make It Rain, we are going to change up the typical "Ole College Try". Normally I do the analysis of last week's games, and to some extent the entire college season to date, through the glorified term "Heisman Watch". For those loyal readers, that is a simple guise to highlight the great performances, and performers during the game. This week, however, I will highlight that one person who should, but won't, win the Heisman Trophy this year, at least if the season ended this week.

What characteristics make up the traditional Heisman Trophy winner? OK, now take out the fact that the player has to play quarterback (or maybe running back). Let's just look at the entire gamut of players from all positions. First, the player has to play on a contending team. Not necessarily the best team, but at least a contending team. Second, the player has to be a driving and dominant force on that team. Third, the player has to have significant enough statistics for their position. Fourth, that player has to have at least one defining moment or play that the media and public can latch onto and remember forever. (For example, Desmond Howard striking the Heisman pose after a long touchdown reception). We have all of these bases covered already this season. To date, your Heisman winner should be:



TERRENCE CODY.

Let's go through the questions I self posed above.

1. The player has to play on a contending team. Check. Alabama is undefeated, and presupposing a victory against LSU this week, on a crash course with the Gators in the BCS Championship game.

2. The player has to be a driving and dominant force on that team. Check. Between Cody and Rolando McCain, Alabama is a dominant defense, and that dominance starts with the big nose tackle.

3. The player has to have significant enough statistics for their position. Check. Admittedly harder to determine for a nose tackle, given that a nose tackles job is to simply stuff the middle, but Cody does have 17 tackles, 5 for a loss, and even 2 passes defensed. He also has, well, let's just go to the next question.

4. One defining moment or play. Check/Check. Cody's two blocked kicks, one at the buzzer, against Tennessee to seal the victory against the Volunteers. That play was topped only by his celebration seen nationally over and over again on every single replay on every sports channel nationwide.

Therefore, ladies and gentlemen readers, Terrence Cody should be the Heisman Trophy winner. Nevertheless, it won't happen, as a defensive player has never won a Heisman Trophy. For those that want to argue Charles Woodson, I would posit that he only won the Heisman Trophy by virtue of his defensive play in addition to his play as a return man on special teams. Don't forget that his coach also started to play Woodson as a wide receiver late in the year as well, so Woodson was not truly, or at least not solely, a defensive player.



MY NEW FAVORITE PLAYER

Jeremiah Masoli - QB - Oregon - He absolutely eviscerated the USC Trojans for a total of 368 yards rushing and passing. He is what multi-talented (read pass/run QBs) like Tebow and Terrelle Pryor are supposed to be.

PREDICTED BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME MATCHUP

Alabama v. Texas - I have thought that Florida would be in this game. However, their offense has become entirely too predictable, and Alabama's defense is too tough for a predictable offense. I see nobody that can defeat Texas on their schedule. If Florida can start to get their offense on track, which playing Georgia definitely helped, they will be back in this game.

WHAT BOISE STATE AND CINCINNATI NEED TO OCCUR THIS WEEK

First, I am assuming that Iowa is going to lose at some point in time. Boise State and Cincinnati need LSU to defeat Alabama. (Then a one loss Alabama to defeat Florida in the BCS championship game).

TRIVIA QUESTION OF THE WEEK

USC was torched by Oregon on Halloween evening, October 31. Losing on Halloween allowed USC to keep one streak alive. How many consecutive games have the Trojans won in the month of November?

LAST WEEK'S TRIVIA ANSWER

Last entry's trivia question was, "South Florida's freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels led the Bulls to an upset victory over the Florida State Seminoles. From what hometown does Daniels hail?" The answer, of course, is Tallahassee, Florida, the home of the Seminoles.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH

3. Oregon State v. California - Two of the best running backs in the country matched up in this game. Jacquizz Rodgers for the Beavers and Jahvid Best for the Bears. Must see for anyone that likes to watch tough runners.

2. Oregon v. Stanford - Can Oregon follow-up their drudging of USC at a much better than expected Cardinal squad? I say a resounding "Yes", but crazy things have been happending in the Pac-10 this year.

1. LSU v. Alabama - LSU is ridiculously overrated (as is most of the SEC this year), but can make a big statement by defeating the Crimson Tide. (By overrated I mean that Florida and Alabama should be the only teams rated in any poll)

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Picks of the Week



After a second consecutive 5-9 week, I decided to take a couple of weeks off. (OK, that really wasn't the decision, I was just too busy to put the post up before the games started. Nevertheless, I am back. Here are this week's, "Picks of the Week".

As a refresher, I use the same website for the betting lines for consistency. If they are different than your lines, too bad. Standard 100 bet with a 10% vig for losing. For one game each week, I will "bet" $250. Totals for the season will be tabulated.

On to the picks ...

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
Denver has been a pleasant surprise this year. It just seems like time for the Ravens to finally make a stand against a good team. Plus, it is about time for Denver to lose a big game.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at New York Jets
Jets seem to be reeling a bit, and the Dolphins have been able to run on everyone. I think they can do that against the Jets, at least enough to win.

Indianapolis Colts -13 v. San Francisco 49ers
Alex Smith. PERIOD.

Detroit Lions -4 v. St. Louis Rams
Desperately close to selecting the Rams here. Stephen Jackson is quietly having a very good season. However, the Rams themselves have been so uncomptetitive, they will have to prove it to me before I pick them. Plus, Stafford is back, and Kevin Smith has traditionally played very well against the Rams.

Dallas Cowboys -9 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
More of a note on how bad Seattle can be versus how good Dallas is.

Chicago Bears -13 v. Cleveland Browns
See above.

Houston Texans -3 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
Texans seem to be heating up. It looks like Andre Johnson is going to play. If he can be effective, this is an easy bet. Johnson's lung is the only thing that kept this from being my "Big Game of the Week".

Philadelphia Eagles +1 v. New York Giants
Giants seem to be reeling a bit after being taken down a notch by the Saints. I think the trend might continue as good coaches like Reid pick apart the Saints and Cardinals film.

San Diego Chargers -16 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
Double digit favorites have been remarkably successful this year. I think the Chargers are embarrased after the week 1 debacle, and they will not be surprised by the Raiders this week, especially with the Raiders coming off the Eagles game.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Tennessee Titans
Vince Young is starting and giving points. Deadly combination. The downside of this bet, Young is well rested.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Green Bay Packers
Adrian Peterson is pretty good too in case you didn't know.

New Orleans Sants -11 v. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is a very good team that can score from anywhere on the field. They are no New Orleans offense, which can score in absolute bunches. Atlanta could play New Orleans very close and still lose by 14-17.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Arizona Cardinals -10 v. Carolina Panthers
Arizona's play against the Giants was the first that they have actually looked like they were in the Super Bowl last year. Still waiting for the Panthers to look like they were in the NFL last season (other than DeAngelo Williams, of course).

Previous Week's Record: 5-9 (0-1 Big Bet)
Year to Date: 46-30 (3-2)
Previous Weeks Winnings (Losses): ($1155)
Year to Date Winnings (Losses): $1365