Sunday, October 30, 2011

Picks of the Week

Abbreviated picks this week, as I am traveling. I righted the ship last week after my first and only losing week of the season. On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravems -12 v. Arizona Cardinals
Minnesota Vikings +3 at Carolina Panthers
Jacksonville Jaguars +9 1/2 v. Houston Texans
Tennessee Tirans -8 v. Indianapolis Colts
New Orleans Saints -13 1/2 at St. Louis Rams
New York Giants -9 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills -4 v. Washington Redskins
New England -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
San Francisco 49ers -8 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Cincinnati Bengals -1 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
Dallas Cowboys +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
San Diego Chargers -3 Kansas City Chiefs

Big Bet
Detroit Lions -3 at Denver Broncos

Previous Week's Record: 6-6-1
Year-to-Date: 46-41-3
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-0
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $90
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $990

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Picks of the Week



It is time for the "picks of the week". A quick refresher: Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler.

I apologize for missing last week. Not good as two weeks ago was my first losing week (only -$20, so not too bad), but I was out celebrating my Mom's 60th birthday. I hope you understand. On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers -2 1/2 v. Washington Redskins
When your best offensive player and your best defensive player are both upset that John Beck is starting, then your team has problems. Plus, I had a dream that the Panthers drafted Justin Blackmon this year to go with Cam Newtwon and Steve Smith - wouldn't that be something?!

Tennessee Titans -3 v Houston Texans
Tennessee always plays tough, and the Texans are once again without Andre Johnson. Although I would have loved to have seen McCourty cover Johnson during this game, it appears McCourty will have to be happy shutting down Walter and Jones.

San Diego Chargers +1 at New York Jets
Beating the Dolphins doesn't impress me Jets.

Denver Broncos pick 'em at Miami Dolphins
Coming off a bye week and playing the Dolphins is the perfect storm for Tim Tebow. But, see my immediate entry above.

Detroit Lions -3 v. Atlanta Falcons
I just don't think the Falcons defense can stop the Lions offense, even though the Lions are effectively without any running backs - unless you include Keiland Williams.

Seattle Seahawks +3 at Cleveland Browns
Not because this is what I think will actually happen, but simply because I have been saying that I will bet against Seattle until they start Charlie Whitehurst. Well, they are starting Charlie Whitehurst.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 at Arizona Cardinals
What a long way away from he Super Bowl for both of these teams.

Oakland Raiders -3 1/2 v Kansas City Chiefs
I really don't know what to make of the Raiders QB situation, but in any event, they still have Darren McFadden. If I was the Raiders, I would be more concerned about missing Sebastian Janikowski. Putting this one on the defense.

Green Bay Packers -10 at Minnesota VIkings
Never take a 10 point road divisional favorite - unless of course the other team is starting a rookie QB in his very first NFL start, their starting CB was just arrested on domestic assault charges and isn't likely to be released before the game, and they just aren't very good.

Dallas Cowboys -13 v. St. Louis Rams
This Rams team just is not very good. I am worried about the 13 point spread, but Austin has a game under his belt, and hopefully a little more synch to the offense.

New Orleans Sainst -13 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
Marques Colston is officially back after last week's performance, and, I figured that I have already taken each of the other two double digit favorites.

Baltimore Ravens -8 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Ravens are one of the best two or three teams in the NFL. The Jaguars aren't.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Chicago Bears -1 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (in London)
After last week's performance, I have to pick the Bears, especially since the Bucs will be without LaGarrette Blount. The Bears arrived much later in London than the Bucs, I just hope they get acclimated to the time change prior to kickoff.

Previous Week's Record: 6-7
Year to Date: 40-35-2
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 5-0
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: ($20)
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $900

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

World Series Roundtable

As Game 1 is underway, it is time to reveal our discussions and predictions for the World Series.

Hopps, since you predicted each of the divisional series correctly, would you like to go first, or last.

Hopps: I'll go last. Sinickal, you're up!

Sinickal: I look up and down each of the rosters and the Texas Rangers are just better than the Cardinals. With the possible exception of Carpenter as ace, and Pujols as best overall player (but not by much over Hamilton), the Rangers are better top-to-bottom. That means the Rangers should win this thing, and I will say in 6.

However, if we fast forwarded ten days or so and you told me that the Cardinals won, for some reason I would not be surprised. Such a victory would have to be based upon the pure power of Albert Pujols, just willing this team to a World Series victory as part of his goodbye St. Louis victory tour.

That being said, I still say Rangers in 6.

Pepster: Sinickal, as much as I agree with the fact that Pujols can do what Prince Fielder didn't, and that is lead his team in the playoffs before heading out of dodge, where is he going to go? The Red Sox and Yankees are set, for big money, at first base, Pujols is too athletic to DH and Fielder is younger such as to have a bit more value in free agency. The Dodgers like Loney, although he is nowhere near the player Pujols is, the Angels could be a candidate, or .... AH HA! You are pushing Pujols for the Cubs! I knew there was an ulterior motive to your honoring Pujols despite picking against the Cardinals.

Wow - that was pretty good psychology right there.

Anyway, I am going to agree with your Rangers in 6. Carpenter wins at least 1 so the series goes 6, but that Rangers lineup is loaded! Hamilton has yet to hit his postseason groove, if Nelson Cruz's next hit is for extra bases, he ties the record of consecutive post-season extra base hits held by the immortal Jayson Werth, and Young, Beltre, Kinsler, Napoli, et. al all have power. And I keep preaching the value of Elvis Andrus, and at some point he is going to explode. The Rangers have enough pitching, and they were here last year. I think it all adds up.

Hopps, your opinion?

Hopps: Texas.

Pepster: Anything else to add?

Hopps: Nope.

Sinickal: Why not?

Hopps: I don't have to justify anything, I was perfect the last round we did this. OUT!

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Tebow, The Next Newton?

Let me open this way. You will learn nothing new in the next few paragraphs. This is my effort at piling on to the Tim Tebow narrative.

So, Tim Tebow has finally been tapped as the starter in Denver. His early success is almost a guarantee give that he has a bye week, then a homecoming game in Miami against one of the worst teams in football. The Bye week alone should be enough to vault him into the top five quarterbacks in the league. The schedule gets harder after that, but will it matter? Three weeks from now, Tebow will be better than Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers or...wait for it...Cam Newton!

It will be interesting to watch the next few weeks. Tebow does some things that blow your mind - and not in a good way. He had a play in the game against San Diego in Week 5 in which he turned his back to the line of scrimmage for no apparent reason. it was part of some strange pirouette that didn't make sense because he wasn't under that much pressure. What the hell was that? I am sorry. I shouldn't cuss when talking about Tim Tebow.

I get that he is big and athletic and super enthusiastic and a really sweet guy, but he is not a NFL quarterback.

Let me repeat that. He is not an NFL quarterback.

Full disclosure -- I also thought Cam Newton would fail miserably in the NFL. Fail like Tiger Woods in a family structure. I was completely wrong. Cam Newton is big and athletic, and is blessed with a cannon. Newton can make any throw from the pocket and is near impossible to defend when he is on the run. He is also much better at understanding his offense and reading defenses than I ever thought he would be. I am quickly becoming sold on him as a starting quarterback in the league. So far, he is worth the first overall pick that Carolina spent on him.

Tebow, on the other hand, was drafted much earlier than he should have been. It was a mistake to put this kind of pressure on him and on the Denver Broncos franchise. Tebow has poor mechanics, poorer accuracy, and the arm strength of Carl Lewis. That combination will not survive in today's NFL. If you can't make all of the throws in this league, you will not survive!

I am looking forward to this. I am not a true Tebow hater, I just think that the love for this guy borders on irrational! It will be comical watching the UF fans fawn all over him during his "Florida Day" in Miami next week. It will be nauseating listening to the Brett Favre like love affair with him a week from Monday. And it will be satisfying to see him taking his place on the bench with all of the other highly touted, underachieving quarterbacks that simply can't play at the NFL level.

We have seen this story before.

Saturday, October 8, 2011

Picks of the Week



It is time for the "picks of the week". A quick refresher: Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. First set of bye weeks this week, so less games to choose. Gotta be careful to keep finishing in the money. On to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles -2 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
The curtain was pulled back a bit last week. The Bills are still being wizarded by the Harvard guy, but that first loss hurt their mystique.

Tennessee Titans +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
James Harrison being hurt limits the Steelers at two positions, as Lawrence Timmons moves inside. Mendenhall has not been special this year, but he is still generally pretty good, so his loss hurts as well. The Titans are playing well so far this year.

New York Giants -9 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Once again ... Tarvaris Jackson.

Minnesota Vikings -3 v. Arizona Cardinals
A surprisingly difficult game for me to select. In those situations I usually take the points. But then again, I usually am not choosing against Kevin Kolb.

Cincinnati Bengals +1 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati surprised everyone last week beating Buffalo. Should be a fun battle of rookie quarterbacks.

Indianapolis Colts -2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
The Colts looked stronger than I expected against a tough Tampa team. The Chiefs ... not so tough.

New Orleans -6 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
That first week loss to the Packers might have been between the best two teams in the league. Cam Newton is fast becoming the most exciting player in the NFL.

Oakland Raiders +5 at Houston Texans
The Raiders are pretty good, and the Texans, although still explosive, will miss Andre Johnson.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. San Francisco 49ers
A surprisingly good matchup between two potential playoff teams. I will take the points, and hope the Bucs play a bit better than they did last week.

New England Patriots -7 v. New York Jets
Yes, I know that Rex Ryan seems to have the Patriots number. However, this is not the same Jets team from the last few years. Plus, Ryan refuses to put Revis on Welker in the slot, preferring to keep him outside. That could limit Ochocinco to like, 2 catches!

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Best team in the league right now going against a team that was very overrated at the beginning of the year. I don't see how Atlanta stops Green Bay's offense.

Chicago Bears +5 at Detroit Lions
I don't think my Bears can win ... but I do think they can cover. Detroit's first time on the big stage in a long, long time.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

San Diego Chargers -3 1/2 at Denver Broncos
I know this is a divisional game, but really, how is the line this close?

Previous Week's Record: 8-8
Year to Date: 34-28-2
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 4-0
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $70
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $920

Sunday, October 2, 2011

Picks of the Week

Short picks this week because I am traveling.

Chicago -7
Washington -3
San Francisco +9 1/2
Minnesota -3
New Orleans -8 1/2
Pittsburgh +3 1/2
Detroit +2 1/2
Buffalo -3
Tennessee pick 'em
Atlanta -4 1/2
Green Bay -12
Miami +6 1/2
Oakland +6
Baltimore -4 1/2
Tampa Bay -10

Big Bet
New York Giants -1

Last Week's Record: 8-7-1
Record Year-to-Date: 26-20-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 3-0
Last Week's Winnings: $180
Winnings Year-to-Date: $850