Another 8-8 week snakebitten by the Pick of the Week. Seriously, how on earth did the Raiders let that one falter, only to win on a FG in overtime. They easily could have had a TD on that last drive too, but I get it, take the guaranteed points. UGH!
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Home teams are 0-4 against the spread this year. Yuch. At least Cincy squeaking by worked in my suicide pool.
Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions
I am only making this pick because I think that Offensive Coordinator Bill Lazor might actually be calling the plays this game. No official announcement on that front has been made, but if Nagy makes the calls, this is almost for sure a guaranteed loss.
New York Giants +7 at New Orleans Saints
The Saints are definitely the better team, but the Giants have played pretty close in their three losses. The Saints are coming off a pretty good-sized wins, which means in Jameis Winston's up-and-down career, he is due for a down game. Gimme the points.
Philadelphia Eagles +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City's offense is still prolific, but the Eagles defense is performing way better than the Chiefs' defense this year to date. All 3 of KC's games have been within 6 points, and that game was a loss for the Chiefs. Eagles on a short week could hurt, but I like them getting a full touchdown rather than 6 and the hook.
Buffalo Bills -17 1/2 v. Houston Texans
This spread is preposterous, especially for an NFL game. The easy bet is on the Texans. But, there is always one bet that seems way too easy, so you should go the opposite direction. I think this is that game.
Carolina Panthers +4 at Dallas Cowboys
My mind initially saaw the Cowboys as the pick. But, this Carolina defense only gives 224 yards (1st), 146 passing yards (1st), 45 rushing yards (1st) and 10 points (2nd) per game. I expect the Cowboys will exceed those averages, but their pedestrian defense (26th total defense, 31st passing defense, 13th in scoring defense) will be what lets them down and keeps this game close. Plus, the Cowboys are coming off a short week.
Cleveland Browns -1 at Minnesota Vikings
This pick is based upon my belief that Dalvin Cook, although playing, will not be 100%. Another key is Cleveland's 2nd best rushing offense versus Minnesota's 20th ranked rushing defense.
Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
In what looks to be the dreariest game of the day, I will take points. Why? Indianapolis' top-ranked unit is its passing defense (13th), and Miami's tap-ranked unit is its passing defense (19th). Every other unit is worse, offensively and defensively. Ugh.
Tennessee Titans -6 at New York Jets
New York's offense is putrid (30th total offense, 30th passing offense, 29th rushing offense, 32nd scoring offense). Couple that with a middling rush defense (15th) against Derrick Henry, it's Tennessee.
Washington Football Team -1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
The 29th (Washington) and 30th (Atlanta) scoring defenses in the NFL. With that being a horrible draw, which team scores more? Washington is 19th whereas Atlanta is 29th. I'll take Washington.
Los Angeles Rams -4 v. Arizona Cardinals
Statistically, the Cardinals are better, especially offensively. But, these two high-flying offenses (Arizona 1st in scoring offense; Los Angeles 3rd), will see this game decided by defense, possibly with Jalen Ramsey making a big stop.
Seattle Seahawks +2 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers
Seattle is a shocking 1-2 whereas San Francisco is a very good 2-1, losing only to a last-second Aaron Rodgers drive last week. Seattle's defense has been abysmal this year so far, but San Francisco's offense is slightly below average in everything, so I'll take the points.
Green Bay Packers -6 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Both defenses match-up favorably in this game, which is saying something since Green Bay was torched early by Jameis Winston. Pittsburgh's offense is helmed by the corpse of Ben Roethlisberger, whereas Aaron Rodgers has shaken off that week 1 loss.
Baltimore Ravens pick 'em at Denver Broncos
Denver has the opportunity to quiet those opponents that are complaining that Denver's 3-0 means nothing because they haven't played anybody (Giants, Jaguars, Jets). The Broncos defense is good (2nd overall, 3rd passing, 2nd rushing, 1st scoring), but A LOT of that can be attributed to their opponents' offensive ineptness. Baltimore is first in rushing and 8th in rushing defense. I like Baltimore's chances on the road, but I wish they were getting a point or two.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 1/2 at New England Patriots
They over-hyped game of the week because of Brady's return, but I expect this game to not be close. Although Mac Jones has the 1 win from all rookie QBs this year, it came at the expense of the Jets, and another rookie QB. To prove that Rob Gronkowski's rib injury means nothing, I predict Brady throws a touchdown to Cameron Brate.
Las Vegas Raiders +3 at Los Angeles Chargers
This game should be a fun one to wach as the Raiders are 1st in the NFL in passing offense and the Chargers are 4th in passing offense. But, the Raiders are better at converting points from their yards (6th in the NFL versus 19th). The defenses are fairly similar (13th versus 16th in total defense), except the Chargers are dead last in rushing defense and 28th in third-down conversion defense. I actually typed all of this before I mentally made my pick, so I talked myself into the Raiders.
Big Bet
Tennessee Titans -6 at New York Jets
I hate picking road teams for my big bet, but given how awfule I have been at my guarantee, I have to change it up. Missing stud receivers only means more Derrick Henry, with a surprise splash of Anthony Firkser.
Last Week's Record: 8-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 23-25
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 0-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($245)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($945)
