Picks of the Week

On vacation so I don't really have time to analyze my own picks, but it is week 17 so who knows who is actually going to play and for how long anyway.  Just going to wing it, before I have to pack and check out of my Air-BnB in Nashville. Place is hopping for tonight's game, though.  Lots of Colts fans in town.  Besides, all of the normal and usual betting rules are thrown out the window this week as each team will be playing with different motivations (qualify for the playoffs, don't get hurt for the playoffs, don't put too much on film for the playoffs, play backups to see if they are ready for next year, throw in the towel, etc.).

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Miami Dolphins +5 at Buffalo Bills

Green Bay Packers -8 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Houston Texans -7 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

New York Jets +13 1/2 at New England Patriots

New Orleans -7 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers 

New York Giants -7 v. Dallas Cowboys

Atlanta Falcons -2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Minnesota Vikings -6 v. Chicago Bears

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Oakland Raiders +14 at Kansas City Chiefs

Pittsburgh Steelers -13 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Philadelphia Eagles -6 1/2 at Washington Racists

Los Angeles Chargers -7 at Denver Broncos

San Francisco 49ers + 10 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Arizona Cardinals +13 at Seattle Seahawks

Indianapolis Colts -4 at Tennessee Titans

Big Bet
New York Jets +13 1/2 at New England Patriots

The Jets have been playing well since Sam Darnold's return, and this is not the normal Patriots.  The Patriots may still win and secure a playoff bye, but this should not be a runaway victory for them.

Last Week's Record:  7-8-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  118-111-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($30)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($215)

Picks of the Week

So I took a big old fashioned hammering last week, but I don't care.  Why is that?  Because the Chicago Bears clinched the NFC North, knocked the Packers out of the playoffs, and moved to within 1 game of having a first round playoff bye.  I will take that!  Now, I just have to make up for the losses this week!

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans -11 v. Washington Racists
I do not like this spread, but I do like taking the home team on short weeks.  Washington's offensive line is mightily banged up, so I expect Jurrell Casey to have a monster game along the defensive line.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 v. Baltimore Ravens
Once again taking the home team on a short week.  I just don't think that Baltimore has enough offense to keep up with the Chargers, despite the fact that they have more than enough defense (1st overall, 1st in points allowed, 3rd in passing defense ad 3rd in rushing defense).  Los Angeles has too many weapons, starting with Philip Rivers.

Atlanta Falcons -3 at Carolina Panthers
Taylor Heinicke?  Old Dominion isn't exactly known for producing star NFL quarterbacks.

Cleveland Browns -9 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Because why not?  The Browns have played some exciting football, and Cincinnati has not, at least not with Jeff Driskel at quarterback.  Cleveland's porous defense will not be as exposed going against Jeff Driskel.

Dallas Cowboys -7 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Would you believe it if I told you that Tampa Bay Buccaneers had the 28th rushing attack in the league?  Of course you would - they are horrible.  Being a one-dimensional offense is going to allow the Cowboys front seven to tee off on Winston.

Minnesota Vikings -6 at Detroit Lions
The Lions literally don't do anything well.  Minnesota's offense has been spectacular since they fired OC Mike DeFilippo.  Thanks for mentioning this last week Barsky.

New York Giants +9 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
This spread is way too big to give to a team that has shown some life as of late.

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Is the Cody Kessler era over yet?

Buffalo Bills +12 1/2 at New England Patriots
The one thing Blake Bortles taught us last year is that a quarterback than knows how to scramble can create havoc with the Patriots defense.

New York Jets +3 v. Green Bay Packers
The Jets have actually been playing fairly well since Sam Darnold's return.  They lost by a touchdown last week to a much better Houston Texans team, and they are at home against the Packers.  I will take the points.

Houston Texans +1 at Philadelphia Eagles
Houston's defense.  Yes, it seems like the magic that is Nick Foles has returned, but the Rams defense has not been playing particularly well this week.  Houston's is.

Chicago Bears -4 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers
I already have enough road favorites, so why not take another.  A lot at stake for the Bears in this game as they have the opportunity to secure a first round playoff bye with two wins (and a Rams loss).

Arizona Cardinals +14 v. Los Angeles Rams
So, it looks the Rams will actually get home field advantage and nothing about Arizona's play says they should stay in this game.  So, perhaps they lose by 13.

Seattle Seahawks +1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
In Russell Wilson we trust and simply, Seattle needs this win more than Kansas City does.  Seattle keeps Kansas City's possessions low with an effective running game and takes a step closer to the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers +6 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
At this stage, New Orleans can practically coast into the playoffs.  Of course they want to guarantee home field for the entire playoffs, which they can do with one win or one Rams loss and one Bears loss, but that doesn't mean the Saints aren't already looking ahead.  Steelers keep this one close.

Denver Broncos -3 at Oakland Raiders
Might as well end the week with another road favorite.

Big Bet
Atlanta Falcons -3 at Carolina Panthers
Taylor Heinicke?  Old Dominion isn't exactly known for producing star NFL quarterbacks.
I hate picking road teams for the Big Bet, especially road favorites, but nobody even knows who is quarterbacking for the Panthers.  And, perhaps Atlanta re-discovered its offense last week.

Last Week's Record:  5-10-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  111-103-10
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($765)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($185)

Picks of the Week

A great, and I mean great, week last week.  Of course as odds will have it, not off to a good start this weekend.  Damn Saturday games.  So, since I am a bit behind today, no analysis, just picks..

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Houston Texans -7 at New York Jets

Denver Broncos -1 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Green Bay Packers +5 1/2 at Chicago Bears
Ok, some analysis.  I am picking Green  Bay because these games are usually close, and if the Bears don't win, at least I can salvage a good bet here.

Arizona Cardinals +9 at Atlanta Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 8 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Oakland Raiders +3 at Cincinnati Bengals

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Indianapolis Colts

Washington Racists +7 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Miami Dolphins +7 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

New York Giants +1 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 1/2 v. New England Patriots

Philadelphia Eagles +13 at Los Angeles Rams

New Orleans Saints -6 at Carolina Panthers

Big Bet
Dallas Cowboys +3 at Indianapolis Colts
Dallas is on a nice little run, arguably have the better talent in this game, and they are getting poitns!

Last Week's Record:  10-6
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  106-93-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $490
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $580

Picks of the Week

A winning week last week, brings me back into the black for the season.  As we head down the stretch in the final quarter of the season, time to capitalize on everything we have learned about the teams this year to date.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans -5 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Once again, taking the home team on a short week pays off, but this time with the added bonus of doing it against a Jacksonville team "led" by Cody Kessler.

Buffalo Bills -4 1/2 v. New York Jets
Buffalo has basically been playing with Josh Allen behind center, even if he is doing it with his legs much more than his arm.  The Jets and their rookie quarterback have yet to jell this season.

Carolina Panthers -1 at Cleveland Browns
I really wanted to take Cleveland here, but Carolina really needs this win to get back in the playoff hunt, and to end their four-game losing streak.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
To be fair, nobody has any idea how the Packers are going to react to the firing of head coach Mike McCarthy and Assistant Head Coach/Defensive Coordinator Winston Moss after last week's loss.  So, my guess is that Aaron Rodgers tries to validate the firing with a huge game.

Indianapolis Colts +4 at Houston Texans
Can the Texans win their 10th game in a row?  Of course they can, and I suspect they will.  But, Indianapolis is going to make this tough for them and will score quite a bit of points themselves.  Maybe a repeat of week 4's 37-34 Texans win will cover the spread.  Of course, if the Colts break the winning streak then they will win this beat too, so I am going Colts.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
The Ravens defense is first overall in total defense and points allowed, second in passing defense and third in rushing defense.  I am not saying they will stop the Chiefs, but they will make it harder for them to score.  Plus, with the newly found rushing attack behind rookies Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson, the Ravens will try to control the clock.

Miami Dolphins +9 v. New England Patriots
For some reason, the Dolphins always have a trick or two for the Patriots when they come to Miami.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 v. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans keeps cruising, but the intra-divisional rival Tampa Bay makes it tough for the Saints.  Do not expect a repeat of the week 1 Bucs victory, especially with Ryan Fitzpatrick on the bench.

New York Giants -3 at Washington Racists
I feel like their is an opportunity for me or my friends to play quarterback for Washington this year.  Marcus, are you available if they need you?

Los Angeles Chargers  -15 v. Cincinnati Bengals
This is a ridiculous line, and nobody in their right mind would ever select any NFL giving 15 points ... unless they were playing against Jeff Driskel.  Can somebody say collusion?

Denver Broncos -3 at San Francisco 49ers
I hate taking road favorites, but I have to do so here.  The 49ers are going nowhere fast, and Denver, believe it or not, has an opportunity to still make the playoffs.

Detroit Lions -3 at Arizona Cardinals
Detroit is not good, but I feel that they at least give themselves opportunities to win.  Despite being the proverbial straw that broke Mike McCarthy's back, Arizona has not shown us much of anything this year.  I'll take Detroit.

Dallas Cowboys -3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Both of these teams would love to knock the other one down a peg.  A win by Philadelphia puts them in a tie for first in the NFC East.  A win by Dallas virtually assures Philadelphia of missing the playoffs.  Plus, Dallas has been a completely different team since the acquisition of Amari Cooper.  Philadelphia is not the same team as last year's Super Bowl winners.

Pittsburgh Steelers -10 at Oakland Raiders
Is it possible that Roethlisberger throws for 500 yards?  I think so.  In the past 5 years, double digit favorites have covered almost 60% of the time, so I will take a chance on the Steelers (as well as the Chargers).

Chicago Bears +3 v. Los Angeles Rams
Just a gut feeling.Not saying the Bears win, but this game is shaping up to be very interesting.  We all know about the Rams offense (2nd in points, 2nd overall, 4th in rushing and passing), but the Rams defense has been markedly pedestrian, (17th in passing defense, 18th in rushing defense and total defense, and 19th in points allowed).  They will give up yards and points to Chicago.  Chicago is 5th in points scored and 5th in points allowed.  They are second in rush defense, so Todd Gurley might find yards tough to come by in Soldier Field.

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Minnesota Vikings
An incredibly important NFC battle for both squads trying to jockey for widcard position.  For those who have not been paying attention, Russell Wilson has been playing out-of-his-mind!!!!  I'll take Russell Wilson.

Big Bet
New York Giants -3 at Washington Racists
I feel like their is an opportunity for me or my friends to play quarterback for Washington this year.  Marcus, are you available if they need you?

Saquon Barkley is coming into his own, so even though the Giants are on the road and giving up points, that shouldn't be a problem against..... who is it again?  Oh yeah ... Mark Sanchez.

Last Week's Record:  9-7
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  96-87-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $280
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $90

NFL Picks of the Week

Basically even last week, which is a shame because at one point I was 5-2 in the early games midway through the fourth quarter.  Then, in the span of less than a minute, the scores in the early games went from 5-2 in my favor to 2-5 against, and I almost never recovered.  A good start to this week with the Dallas victory over New Orlenas.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Dallas Cowboys +7 v. New Orleans
Once again, taking the home team on a short week pays off.

New York Giants +4 v. Chicago Bears
Saquon Barkley is laboring in turmoil on a bad team, that gets to play against Chase Daniel as quarterback.  I just think that with Chicago's defense, this ends up being a low-scoring, close game.

Baltimore Ravens +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore wins, and Joe Flacco never starts for the Ravens again.

Denver Broncos -4 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
You should know by now my hatred for road favorites, but if this Denver teams gets on a run they could make the playoffs, and more importantly, Jeff Driskel is starting for the Bengals.  Yes, that Jeff Driskell.  The one run out of the University of Florida for not being a good quarterback.

Detroit Lions +10 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
Now I am not going crazy here, I do not expect a Lions victory.  But, we do have the west coast team travelling west playing the early kickoff, so I expect the Rams to be a little sluggish, as history suggests.  Lions score twice late for a back door cover.

Arizona Cardinals +13 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Arizona's offense is remarkably consistent.  They rank 32nd in total offense, rush offense, pass offense, points scored and 3rd down conversion %.  Why on earth would I pick them?  Green Bay is struggling a bit, and it seems as if it is inevitable that Mike McCarthy is fired after the season.  Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers, but Arizona does have the 4th best pass defense.  Green Bay wins, but maybe 28-17.

Cleveland Browns +6 at Houston Texans
The Browns have been playing some tough football, and although I do believe Houston wins this game, Cleveland keeps it close.  They have the 8th best rushing offense, and if Baker Mayfield woke up dangerous, Houston better be ready to play.  Houston meanwhile is 4th in rushing offense, so expect both teams to try to control the clock, which should keep the scoring down, and close.

Indianapolis Colts -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Cody Kessler is starting.  Colin Kaepernick's collusion case gets stronger and stronger.

Buffalo Bills +3 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
Is it just me or has Miami been more lackadaisackal since Tannehill returned?  Buffalo with Josh Allen is at least playing like they care and are trying to win.

Carolina Panthers -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Awful for me to pick a road favorite in a divisional game especially, but Carolina need this win, whereas Tampa needs to finish up with Jameis Winston and find a new "quarterback of the future".

Oakland Raiders +14 v. Kansas City Chiefs
I hate this pick.  I hate it, I hate it.  But, with the turmoil in Kansas City surrounding Kareem Hunt's dismissal, I have to take the 2 touchdown spread.  Give me those points!

New York Jets +10 at Tennessee Titans
So many double digit spreads this week.  The Jets defense is second in 3rd down conversion percentage, so if that keeps up, Tennessee won't be able to sustain drives.  Without sustained drives, less points.  I will take 10.

Minnesota Vikings -5 at New England Patriots
I will have to take a flyer on this one, as everything except Minnesota's passing game is telling me to take New England.  The Patriots are 25th in pass defense, and the Vikings are 6th in passing offense.  At the very least, once again, I root for a close game.

San Francisco 49ers +10 at Seattle Seahawks
I am done with not trusting Russell Wilson.  With him  behind center, Seattle will make the playoffs this year, and with a win today go to 7-5.  However, 10 points in a divisional game is once again too much for me to give.  San Francisco's defense is a respectable 11th overall, and 10th in rushing defense.  That should keep it close enough to cover.

Los Angeles Chargers +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Best game of the day.  I am taking the points and I hope this is a good old fashioned shootout, despite the fact that it is the 6th and 7th best overall defenses.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Washington Racists
There is no real reason for the Eagles to be favored by 6.  They have not played in any way shape or form like they have earned the right to give up 6 points.  Everything about this game says to pick Washington, which is why I am going with the Eagles.

Big Bet
Denver Broncos -4 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
You should know by now my hatred for road favorites, but if this Denver teams gets on a run they could make the playoffs, and more importantly, Jeff Driskel is starting for the Bengals.  Yes, that Jeff Driskell.  The one run out of the University of Florida for not being a good quarterback.

For a big bet, I always tell myself to try to pick a home team, but if you pick a visiting team, make sure you are getting points.  What I am getting is Jeff Driskel - so that counts.

Last Week's Record:  7-8
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  87-80-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($30)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($190)