Picks of the Week

The divisional round was fantastic for us, which is a good thing because I do not know if I can really figure out the conference championship games.  Of course, we will give it a shot and hope for the best.  Seriously, this is about the best final four matchups for which we could have hoped in terms of quality teams and great matchups.  Going to be a great football day!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

San Francisco 49ers +3 at Philadelphia Eagles

A dynamic matchup between the 6th and 3rd highest scoring offenses, and the 1st and 4th best defenses.  Strength versus strength with Piladelphia being the 5th best rushing offense and San Franciso being the best overall defense, and 2nd best against the run.  Jalen Hurts is the difference here, as Brock Purdy - who has done an admirable job - is still just a rookie.  But, given that, I still think this game will be close, so I will take the points.  West coast team traveling east, but this game is not being played in the 1:00 time slot, so I will still take the points.

Philadelphia Eagles -155 v. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $155 to win $100)

As stated above, Jalen Hurts is going to be the difference here, and will not make the key mistake(s) that Purdy will.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45

Two of the better defenses in the NFL, and a rookie quarterback make for an interesting under bet.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Another great matchup pitting high-scoring teams (7th and 1st) against each other.  Cincinnati's defense is 5th best in scoring defense, and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are both less than 100%.  Given these facts, and the fact that Joe Burrow just knows how to win, I am going to take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +115 at Kansas City Chiefs

I am going to take a Joe Burrow at 100% with J'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst over a hobbled Patrick Mahomes with Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and a hobbled Travis Kelce.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiegs OVER 48

I expect a shootout!!!

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Another great matchup pitting high-scoring teams (7th and 1st) against each other.  Cincinnati's defense is 5th best in scoring defense, and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are both less than 100%.  Given these facts, and the fact that Joe Burrow just knows how to win, I am going to take the points.

If I expect Cincinnati to win, then the fact that they are getting points must mean I should make this my big bet.

Last Week's Record:  8-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  153-131-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  11-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $620

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $1,084.50

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $1,229.50

Picks of the Week

 

Super Wild Card Weekend went pretty much as expected, as 5 of the 6 top seeds won games, and the won that lost - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - were the underdogs in that game.  To be fair, "Cue Letterkenny - TO BE FAIRRRRRRRRRRRR," Jacksonville as the 4 seed was also an underdog and beat the Chargers, so 5 of the top 6 favorites won, while 5 of the top 6 seeds won, but they all weren't the same five.  Anyway - really good playoff week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Once again the Jaguars are playing on Saturday, to basically kick-off the playoff coverage, and although their amazing comeback last week was captivating, I don't expect that type of comeback against Kansas City's offense.  Yes, I said offense, because even if Jacksonville scores against KC's defense, they will not be able to stop the leagues highest-scoring offense.

Kansas City -480 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (Bet $480 to win $100)

Andy Reid is 20-3 as a head coach coming off a bye week.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 53

I see a 35-14/35-17 type of game today.

Philadelphia Eagles -8 v. New York Giants

This might seem tough because of the close game the teams just played in the last week of the season (22-16), but then I realize that the Giants are playing on a short week, so I will take the home team with full rest because of a bye playing a team travelling on a short week.

Philadelphia Eagles -375 v. New York Giants (Bet $375 to win $100)

Plus, the Eagles have the third best defense (total AND scoring) in the NFL, whereas the Giants 27th ranked rushing defense will try to stop the Eagles fifth-rated rushing attack.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 48

This seems like a 35-17 game, or 33-21.

Cincinnati Bengals +6 at Buffalo Bills

This is the game that I am most looking forward to seeing.  I picked Cincinnati in the Damar Hamlin game because Buffalo has not seemed dominant, and even the Bears stayed even with Bills for 3+ quarters.  Giving 6 to Cincinnati with a depleted secondary seems dangerous as Cincinnati is the 5th best passing attack in the league.  The injuries on Cincinnati's offensive line are concerning, but they overcame that last year to make the Super Bowl.

Cincinnati Bengals +210 at Buffalo Bills (Bet $100 to win $210)

Buffalo's line is at -250, so it just makes sense to take the Cincinnati money line here.  Cincinnati may not shock anybody this year, but they still win.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills OVER 49

Would it shock anybody if this went 30+ points for both teams?

San Francisco 49ers -4 v. Dallas Cowboys

San Francisco is rested, and they have the number 1 defense in the NFL in total defense and scoring defense.  Plus, they have the 6th highest scoring offense, and is there any doubt they would have been higher had they had Christian McCaffrey all year?  Plus, the Cowboys are playing on a short week.

San Francisco 49ers -200 v. Dallas Cowboys

If I think the 49ers are going to cover the spread, I must think they are going to win outright, correct?  San Francisco is my favorite to win the Super Bowl right now.  Not sure who has the brawn to stop them, or the guns to outscore them.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers OVER 46 1/2

Honestly, I think this number is a bit low, so I will definitely take the over.

Big Bet:

Kansas City -480 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (Bet $480 to win $100)

Andy Reid is 20-3 as a head coach coming off a bye week.

The biggest monetary risk on the board is also the easiest pick on the board.  Have I mentioned that Andy Reid is 20-3 coming off a bye week.  These teams met in November, with Mahomes going 26-35 for 331 yards and 4 TDs, plus rushing for 39 more yards.  KC wins this.

Last Week's Record:  8-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  145-127-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  10-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $464.50

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $464.50

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $609.50

Picks of the Week

A wild week 18, with third-string quarterbacks galore.  Some to see what they can do (Sam Howell), some out of necessity (Skylar Thompson), and some just because (every team out of the playoffs).  Coming close to a .500 record for the week secures a winning regular season, that I hope will roll into the playoffs.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

San Francisco 49ers -9 v. Seattle Seahawks

Home team on a short week, but really, probably the best team in the playoffs right now, even with Brock Purdy.  Seattle was a nice story, that ends today.  This game has 31-17 written all over it.

San Francisco 49ers -475 v. Seattle Seahawks (Bet $475 to win $100)

San Francisco's number 1 ranked total defense and scoring defense is what makes the difference.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Listen, I thought the Chargers win this game initially, except losing Mike Williams hurts their offense, a lot.  Sure, several of the receivers stepped up, but the look, feel and speed of the offense is different with Williams out.  Not sure who wins, but this is close enough for the Jaguars to cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars +115 (Bet $100 to win $115)

Not sold on this as an outright win for Jacksonville, as the defense will need to step up, but they are 12th in scoring defense, and somebody like a Rayshawn Jenkins always seems to make a play when needed.

Buffalo Bills -13 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

This isn't the full Dolphins, given that Tuanigamanualepola Tagavailova is still in the consussion protocol.

Buffalo Bills -900 v. Miami Dolphins (Bet $900 to win $100)

Dolphins have the 24th ranked scoring defense in the NFL going against the second-highest scoring team in the league.

Minnesota Vikings -3 v. New York Giants

I feel like both of these teams are fraudulent as Super Bowl contenders, yet they play each other so one has to advance.  They both have one superstar offensive player (Justin Jefferson and Saquon Barkley), but Minnesota has Dalvin Cook as well, and the Giants are 27th in rushing defense.

Minnesota Vikings -155 v. New York Giants (Bet $155 to win $100)

I am not happy about this, but not getting enough on my money (+135) to pick the Giants.  This could be a double loss if the Giants win.

Cincinnati Bengals -8 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

This game just isn't the same without Lamar Jackson.

Cincinnati Bengals -450 v. Baltimore Ravens (Bet $450 to win $100)

Baltimore's defense is 8th overall and 3rd in scoring defense, but 26th against the pass.  Joe Burrow leads the 5th best passing attack in the NFL.

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It seems really trendy to bet on Tampa Bay and Tom Brady, who is 7-0 against Dallas in his career.  But, I don't like trendy bets.

Dallas Cowboys -140 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If I think the Cowboys will cover the spread, then I have to think they will win outright, right?  Tampa's lack of a rushing game (last in the league) will not punish Dallas' 22nd ranked rus defense.

Big Bet:

San Francisco 49ers -475 v. Seattle Seahawks (Bet $475 to win $100)

San Francisco's number 1 ranked total defense and scoring defense is what makes the difference.

Three easy bets this week, San Fran, Cincinnati and Buffalo to win.

Last Week's Record:  7-8-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  137-123-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($30)

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $145

Picks of the Week

You can see my record for last week down below, but I am not commenting on the games here, except to say we at WeMakeItRain wish nothing but the speediest of recoveries to Damar Hamlin and the best to his family.  Also, major kudos to the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals training and medical staff for performing exactly how I am sure they expected, in a situation they never expect to occur!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Las Vegas Raiders +9 v. Kansas City Chiefs -9

Two serious betting rules (at least for this year) could conflict in this game.  First, I (almost) always want to take the home team on a short week, and Saturday games are a short week.  But, this year the team that plays the San Francisco 49ers are 1-14 this year the week AFTER playing the Niners.  Well, the betting gods help us here with a 9 point spread, because the Raiders can cover as the home team on a short week AND lose the game.

Jacksonville Jaguars -6 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Home team on a short week, AND also just the better team.  The defenses are similar (25th/23rd overall; 15th/T12th scoring), but the offenses are way different.  Jacksonville is 8th in total offense with a really balanced rushing (10th) and passing (10th) game.  Tennessee is 30th in total offense and 29th in scoring offense.  Jaguars to the playoffs after covering.

Minnesota Vikings -6 at Chicago Bears

Nathan Peterman throws for more interceptions than yards (148/127) as the Bears secure the number 1 overall pick.

Houston Texans +3 at Indianapolis Colts

Like I said, the Bears secure the number 1 overall pick.  

Cincinnati Bengals -9 v. Baltimore Ravens

Under ordinary circumstances, this spread is way too large, except, the Bengals will be keyed up after having last week's game canceled, Lamar Jackson is out again this week, and the Bengals want to guarantee that a coin flip doesn't keep them from hosting a home playoff game if they play the Ravens next week.  Baltimore has scored 13, 17, 13, 16, and 10 the last 5 games.  That should be easy for Cincinnati to cover as Baltimore has the 24th ranked passing defense in the NFL.

New York Jets + 3 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Getting points in a close divisional game?  Yes please.  Plus, Skylar Thompson is starting at qurterback for the Dolphins.  For a team that has been bouncing back and forth between Tuanigamanualepola Tagavailoa, Teddy Bridgewater, and Skylar Thompson, Thompson is looking to be the first Dolphins backup quarterback to finish a game he started.  If not, Mike Glennon and his neck could make an appearance.  Joe Flacco starting in what is likely his final NFL game.

Carolina Panthers +3 at New Orleans Saints

Honestly, I didn't give this game much thought, just taking the points.  Carolina has played better under Sam Darnold lately.

New England Patriots +7 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Buffalo will be highly emotional, but let's not forget they lost 2 defensive backs in the short time against Cincinnati, and they have not been playing great prior to last week.  New England has an opportunity to make the playoffs with a win, they are out if they lose.  That is enough to keep this game close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 at Atlanta Falcons

Tampa Bay has already clinched the NFC South, but the way they have been playing they cannot afford to rest players or to take their foot off the gas.  They need this game as preparation, so they will play hard - at least hard enough to cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh has an outside chance at the playoffs (Patriots loss, Dolphins loss) both of which could legitimately happen.  Since all 3 of those games will be happening simultaneously, I expect Pittsburgh to come out firing against the Browns.

Los Angeles Rams +6 at Seattle Seahawks

Yes the Seahawks have playoffs on their mind, but I don't think they have enough firepower to cover this spread, even if they win.

Los Angeles Chargers +3 at Denver Broncos

Even though the Chargers don't have much to play for (they are already in the playoffs, and locked into 5 or 6, no first round home game no matter what), they will play starters at least a half, as Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams all need to shake off the rust from all the games Allen and Williams missed.  That is enough to keep it close.

New York Giants +14 at Philadelphia Eagles

My normal site has no number on this game, likely because the Jalen Hurts situation (will he or won't he play) is up in the air.  But, vegas insider shows all other sportsbooks between 14 and 14 1/2, so I will take the fewer of those two choices.

Arizona Cardinals +14 at San Francisco 49ers

Two consecutive two-touchdown underdogs in a stellar David Blough v. Brock Purder thriller.  I'll take those points, even though San Francisco will be hoping for the number 1 overall seed.

Dallas Cowboys -7 at Washington Commanders

Betting on Washington has done me will this year, but not recently.  Plus even though Carson Wentz is starting, they have announced rookie Sam Howell will play.  Sam Howell, meet Micah Parsons.

Green Bay Packers -4 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

The Lions have been a great story this year, but doesn't this entire Packers season feel like it ends in a first round playoff loss with Aaron Rodgers criticizing the coaching?

Big Bet:

Minnesota Vikings -6 at Chicago Bears

Nathan Peterman throws for more interceptions than yards (148/127) as the Bears secure the number 1 overall pick.

Plus, Minnesota is fighting for the first-round bye (along with Philadelphia and San Francisco).  

Last Week's Record:  8-6-1-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  130-115-8-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $290

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $175

Picks of the Week

 

So, my expected backslide did, in fact, occur.  Actually, the pick's weren's so bad (8-8), but the dam big bet got me.  Without going back to look at it, I believe that is 3 big bet losses in a row.  I need to fix that for sure.  In this penultimate regular season week, let's fix that, OK!  Interesting football week this week as for most people it is the fantasy football championships.  I am not in those either, but my wife is!!!  Let's Go Gator Bait!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Tennessee Titans +14 v. Dallas Cowboys

Took a lot of flak for this pick with everybody and their brother not playing for Tennessee - and Josh Dobbs playing - but it turns out ot be a push.  Home team on a short week, ya'll.

Detroit Lions +5 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

Too many people out for the Bears, like offensive lineman and Jack Sanborn.  The good news - the number 1 pick is in play!!!  (And then a trade back to the Colts for the fifth pick, 2 other firsts, a second, and a switch of fifths.  While still landing Will Anderson!

Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. New Orleans Saints

Gardner Minshew can put points up on the board.  New Orleans will give him some trouble as they are 2nd in passing defense, but, the offense just isn't putting up enough points this year (22nd in the league.)

Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carolina has won 3 of its last 4 games.  Could it be that we all dramatically underestimated Sam Darnold?  I don't think so, but Tampa hasn't exactly been world beaters either, so I will take the points and assume this will be a close game.

Denver Broncos +12 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Wholesale changes after a Christmas Day ass-whooping have to account for being able to cover a double-digit spread against a division-rival, right?

New York Giants -5 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

I have not been sold on the Giants all year, but Indianapolis is playing on a short week this week, and look rudderless last week anyway.  Probably a good opponent for a team fighting for the playoffs.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 at Houston Texans

Jacksonville is riding a three-game winning streak, all against playoff-competitive teams, and although I don't usually like giving points to a divisional rival at home, Houston's offense is putrid (26th in passing; 30th in rushing; 30th in scoring; 32nd - last - in total offense.)

Arizona Cardinals +6 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

David Blough versus Desmond Ridder - a stunning QB battle.  But, the last time we questioned David Blough, he threw the ball around the field.  And, in a game with likely little scoring, I will take the points.  Plus, the one thing the Falcons do well offensively is run the ball, but Arizona is a competent 12th against the run, so the score should stay close.

Cleveland Browns +2 at Washington Commanders

Deep in my heart, I feel that Carson Wentz will give the Commanders the same type of jolt as Taylor Heniecke first gave them when he started.  However, teams are 1-14 this year in the week after playing the San Francisco 49ers, and guess who Washington played last week?

New England Patriots -3 v. Miami Dolphins

The starting carousel is swinging at full speed for the Miami Dolphins, and I am not just talking about quarterback.  Key players at basically every position will be out today.

New York Jets -2 at Seattle Seahawks

It appears that Seattle is spent, having lost 3 in a row and 5 of their last 6.

San Francisco 49ers -9 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

This is a HUGE line on the road, but with the craziness going on in the Raiders with the benching of Derek Carr in favor of Jarret Stidham, who although has some athleticism and talent, will be making his first start against the number total defense, scoring defense and rushing defense in the NFL!!!

Los Angeles Rams +6 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

I have said this before, but the Chargers are a different team when they have Mike Williams and Keenan Allen on the field, and that is all for the better.  But, they are on a short week, so I am taking the points, hoping last week's 51-point burst rejuvenated the Rams enough to keep this close.

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings will likely know whether Philly won or lost before they take the field today (and assuming a San Fran win already), so they will need this game to stay in the hunt for the one (or 2) seed in the NFC.  Problem is, this game is in the 4 p.m. Eastern slot, so the Noon Nightmare cannot emerge.  Plus, this Packers team is looking like Rodgers will lead them to a first round exit from the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 at Baltimore Ravens

This game should be really close, especially given the 16-14 Baltimore win just 3 weeks ago.  In the last 4 weeks the Ravens have scored 17, 3, 16 and 10 points.  Any extra points - like the plus 2 in the spread - is welcome in this game.

Cincinnati Bengals +1 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Cincinnati is only one-game behind the Bills in the race for the one-seed in the AFC.  And Buffalo, despite winning, has not seemed dominant.  Even the Bears stayed with them for 3+ quarters last week.  I hate to pay hunches, but the fact that the teams are pretty evenly matched (2nd and 5th offenses, 7th and 10th defenses); means I have to choose somehow.

Big Bet:

New York Giants -5 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

I have not been sold on the Giants all year, but Indianapolis is playing on a short week this week, and look rudderless last week anyway.  Probably a good opponent for a team fighting for the playoffs.

Nick Foles' lack of mobility will cause at least one really bad turnover which helps the Giants cover the spread because of a short field.  But really, the Colts rushing defense is 20th in the NFL, and the Giants behind Saquon Barkley are 6th in rushing, so that should get it done.

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  122-109-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($245)

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($115)