As I predicted, week 17 killed me, especially since none of us would predict Doug Pederson would pull Jalen Hurts for Nathan Sudfield. This is why we should never bet Week 17, except that I have fans that expect if from me. Hopefully the playoffs bring me good look.
As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid. I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Indianapolis Colts +6 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
Look, Buffalo wins this game, but the Indianapolis defense is legit (2nd in rushing defense and 7th in total defense). Buffalo wins because they are 3rd in passing offense and Indianapolis is 20th in passing defense, but this still means that this game will be close. Primarily because of Johnathan Taylor going aginst a middling 17th ranked rushing defense. Buffalo wins by 3.
Los Angeles Rams + 3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
A second straight game where I take the points with the visiting team. But, this is not your normal visiting team. The Rams have the best defense in the NFL (3rd in 3rd down percentage and rushing defense, and 1st in passing defene, scoring defense and total defense). Jalen Ramsey can lock down DK Metcalf, and Aaron Donald is the best player in the NFL. Seattle may win this game, but it will be super close.
Washington Football Team +8 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
My third straight game where I take the points. Tom Brady has been horrible in night games, and given that he is not mobile, the Washington defensive line, with four first round draft picks (Chase Young, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Marquez Sweat) is going to give the immobile Brady trouble. If Alex Smith was healthy, I would predict Washington to win this game outright, but given that he isn't, they lose by a touchdown.
Tennessee Titans + 3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
Honestly, this is all about Derrick Henry. The 2,000 yard rusher (and the second ranked rushing team in the NFL) is looking for revenge against the Titans, who eliminated them from the playoffs last season. Honestly, this spread should be 3 1/2 in favor of the Titans, in which case I would take the Ravens. In short, I'll take the points.
Chicago Bears +10 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
This is not a homer bet. The Saints win this game. But, this spread is way too high, especially given that Alvin Kamara hasn't been able to practice since last week due to Covid protocols. The Saints average 30 points per game, and the Bears average giving up 23, well within the point spread. This game screams back door cover with a late Allen Robinson touchdown.
Pittsburgh Steelers -6 v. Cleveland Browns
Well, I have to pick one favorite, right? And, I normally would have selected Cleveland in this game as they are playing really well going into the playoffs. But, they just barely beat Pittsburgh last week with the Steelers starting Mason Rudolph at quarterback, and now, head coach Kevin Stefanski is out due to Covid protocols. Steelers roll.
Big Bet
Tennessee Titans + 3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
Honestly, this is all about Derrick Henry. The 2,000 yard rusher (and the second ranked rushing team in the NFL) is looking for revenge against the Titans, who eliminated them from the playoffs last season. Honestly, this spread should be 3 1/2 in favor of the Titans, in which case I would take the Ravens. In short, I'll take the points.
Give me points at home in the playoffs!
Last Week's Record: 7-9
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1Year-to-Date Record: 127-126-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($455)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1125)
No comments:
Post a Comment