A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250. All losses incur a vig of 10%. On to the picks.
Denver Broncos -8 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders
This is more points than I want to give, but the home team on a short week is immeasurably more talented than the Raiders, especially on defense, and Las Vegas is coming off an overtime game to boot.
Atlanta Falcons +6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts (in Berlin)
Although the Falcons struggle against the rush (here you go Jonathan Taylor fans), they are overall pretty stout (3rd overall), so I will take the points in this one in what should be a close game.
Chicago Bears -4 1/2 v. New York Giants
None of us actually believe this, but the Bears offense is carrying this team. They are 2nd in rushing offense, 4th in total offense, 6th in scoring offense, and 10th in passing offense. And this Giants defense is barely better than Cincinnati's, and their offense is way worse.
Baltimore Ravens -4 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
I really don't know what to think about this game. All I can honestly say is that I feel that Minnesota might suffer a letdown after last week's emotion victory over their divisional rivals - the Detroit Lions and Baltimore needs to put together a win streak to make the playoffs.
New England Patriots +2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Statistically, New England scores more points than Tampa Bay, and they give up less points than Tampa Bay does. And, since they are the road team here, they are getting points. I'll take 'em.
Houston Texans +1 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Yes, I know CJ Stroud is out, but to be honest, he wasn't having that great of a year anyway, as the team is 19th in passing offense and 17th overall. This pick is about taking the points at home in an intra divisional game, and Houston's defense (1st overall and in scoring, 4th against the pass nad 6th against the run).
Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 at New York Jets
The Jets were absolutely decimated by the trade deadline, losing Quinnen Williams (no surprise) and Sauce Gardner (SURPRISE!) from a defense that was already 27th in scoring defense and 16th in total defense. Cleveland is the beneficiary of those trades. I am shocked Breece Hall is still there. If Braelon Allen wasn't hurt, Hall might have been traded too!
Carolina Panthers -5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints
Speaking of surprises, how is Alvin Kamara still on the Saints? Carolina, behind Offensive Player of the Year candidate Rico Dowdle, is in the playoff hunt!
Miami Dolphins +9 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
This is a lot of points for an intra-divisional home team to give up, so I will take them, despite the fact that Buffalo's offense is the best in the league, and Miami's is 27th.
Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
Four reasons here: (1) The Jacoby Brissett shine won't surprise Seattle like it did Dallas; (2) Seattle is going to want to play with it's new offensive playmaker - Rashid Shaheed - so expect a couple of big plays; (3) Shaheed's speed is going to open up things A LOT for JSN; and (4) short week for Arizona.
San Francisco 49ers +4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
I absolutely hate this pick, but I just don't like picking road intra-divisional favorites unless I absolutely have to do so. Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle can probably score enough to keep this close, although I expect the Rams to win, maybe 27-24?
Detroit Lions -8 1/2 at Washington Commanders
The Lions are going to be angry after losing to the Minnesota Vikings last week and the Commanders are going to be angry that they have to start Marcus Mariota again!
Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Although they sit in first place in the AFC North, Pittsburgh's numbers are brutal. They are 30th in Total Offense AND Total Defense, and on top of that they are last in the league in pass defense, against Justin Herbert's 6th best passing offense. The Chargers aren't shabby on the defensive side of the ball either, being 6th in Total Defense.
Green Bay Packers -1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Green Bay's defense is stout (5th against the run and 9th against the pass for 5th overall), and Philadelphia still looks like a paper tiger, at least until Saquon Barkley gets back on track. And, with the way their respective divisions are playing, Green Bay just needs this more.
Byes: Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Tennessee Titans
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Denver Broncos -8 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders
This is more points than I want to give, but the home team on a short week is immeasurably more talented than the Raiders, especially on defense, and Las Vegas is coming off an overtime game to boot.
Brock Bowers' returns makes the Raiders offense a bit more lethal, but honestly, my big bet selections have been awful this year, so let's just get it out of the way early this week.
Last Week Record: 7-7
Last Week Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 61-74
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-7
Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($235)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,895)
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