Picks of the Week

 

Merry Christmas weekend everybody, and the NFL is in full effect trying to take over another holiday.  Games on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, and going head-to-head with the NBA's marquis matchups on Christmas Day.  As you will see from my first pick, which league won yesterday.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Minnesota Vikings +6 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

So, after family time, and family lunch, this house had on the NBA games (GO HEAT!!!)  Paying so much attention to what is technically the real  not actual start to the NBA season (although this year is the actual start to the season), that we basically forgot about this game.  So much so that I did not put my pick out in the ether.  But, everyone that reads this blog regularly knows that I prefer home teams on short weeks, so this makes this game an easy win, right?  Nope.  Being so discombobulated by rushing the selection, my dumb ass selected Minnesota because for some reason I thought they were the home team.  I realized it before the first score, but, cannot change a bet after the game starts.  Oops.

Detroit Lions +10 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

So yes, the home team on a short week, but also a home team getting double digit points.  Tampa Bay has not been dominating teams, even in wins, and Detroit has played some difficult teams close, despite being run through by the Titans last week.

Arizona Cardinals -5 v. San Francisco 49ers

I would love nothing more than to cheer for a Cardinals loss this week, potentially putting them into a tie with the Chicago Bears for the final playoff spot, but I do not see it happening here, especially with a depleted San Francisco team coming off three straight losses to the Bills (understandable), Washington (OK) and Dallas (huh?).

 

Miami Dolphins -3 at Las Vegas Raiders

Not the home team on a short week, but home teams on short weeks win about 2/3 of the time - perhaps this is the third time.  (Although with my luck Tampa covers and the Raiders win this game - but that is why they call it gambling).  The Dolphins have a shockingly good defense, and by shocking it is because they are 18th in passing defense, 19th in rushing defense, and 20th in total defense, but 1st in scoring defense).  The Raiders are not good enough on offense to exploit this, so I will take the Dolphins, even as a road favorite, especially since the Dolphins are starting to open up the playbook for Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa.

Chicago Bears -7 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

So your boy is still holding out hope that he might be able to attend the game (currently in Jacksonville).  Why would I pick the Bears as a more than TD favorite on the road?  Well, the Jaguars are currently 28th in passing defense, 30th in rushing defense, 30th in scoring defense and dead last (32nd) in total defense.  Trubisky and the Bears offense are clicking a bit under Bill Lazor's playcalling and they should score a lot of points this week.

New York Jets +9 v. Cleveland Browns

The Browns have won 5 of their last 6, but each game has been close (3 points, 5 points, 2 points, 6 points, 5 points and a 14 point victory over the Giants last week).  The Jets have little hope of winning two in a row, but their rushing defense is 14th in the league, so perhaps they slow down Chubb and Hunt enough to keep this close.

Baltimore Ravens -10 1/2 v. New York Giants

The Ravens, who are first in the league in rushing offense, have scored over 34 in each of their last 3 games (all wins), behind a sudden surge of passing from Lamar Jackson (6TDs, 1 INT) during that span.

Houston Texans -7 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

We should not overreact to the Bengals victory over Pittsburgh last week, as Pittsburgh was slipping by some teams even during their winning streak, but, the Texans are spiraling, having lost 3 in a row by a combined 42 points.  However, two of those losses were to the Colts.  Houston's is getting an MVP-type season from DeShaun Watson (second in passing yards and QB rating).  Plus, Cincinnati is on a short week.

Atlanta Falcons +11 at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City has won 9 in a row, by (from most recent) 3, 6, 6, 3, 4, 2, 26 (Jets), 27 (Broncos), and 9.  Atlanta has the 4th best passing offense in the league, and although missing Julio Jones, should still score enough points to keep this game close.

Indianapolis Colts -1 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Indianapolis, with a win here, could possibly move up to second in the AFC playoff standings, whereas a loss by Pittsburgh could put them in to a tie with the Browns for the AFC North title, one game up on the Ravens.  This would set up fireworks in the final week with the Steelers playing the Browns (and Ravens playing the Bengals).  I expect all of this to happen.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 v. Denver Broncos

Justin Herbert has had a great rookie campaign, and looks to finish strong against a Broncos defense that might be missing rusher Bradley Chubb.

Washington Football Team -1 v. Carolina Panthers

I am making this selection on the premise that Alex Smith returns from his calf injury for the game at 80-85%.  If this doesn't happen, this pick is not going to win.

Los Angeles Rams +1 at Seattle Seahawks

The Rams got caught looking ahead to this game last week, and dropped a game to the Jets that could have put them in a tie for the division lead with Seattle.  Because of that, Seattle can clinch the division with a win today.  The Rams counter with an amazing defense that ranks 3rd in scoring, 2nd in 3rd down percentage and rushing defense, and 1st in passing and total defense.  Russell Wilson certainly will challenge any defense, but I expect Los Angeles to be up for the challenge.

Philadelphia Eagles -2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

So Dallas is playing better with Tony Pollard in the backfield instead of Ezekial Elliott, but Philadelphia has been playing MUCH better with Jalen Hurts at quarterback instead of Carson Wentz.  Both teams still have a shot at the playoffs, but Jalen Hurts has a much more recent winning background, so I will take the Eagles in this game.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Green Bay has had a disappointing season against the spread, and a mediocre run defense which will take on the the NFL's leading rusher and biggest offensive tank in Derrick Henry.  It would not surprise me if Tennessee won this one outright, but I do think the run game keeps Aaron Rodgers off the field enough that this game will be close.

New England Patriots +7 v. Buffalo Bills

These teams have already played once this year, with the Bills squeeking by the Patriots with a three point win in Buffalo.  The Bills have gone 5-1 since that point, but the Patriots are a respectable 4-3 since that game as well.  And, do we think Belichick has learned more or less about the Bills since then?  I expect a close game in Foxboro.

  

Big Bet

Arizona Cardinals -5 v. San Francisco 49ers

I would love nothing more than to cheer for a Cardinals loss this week, potentially putting them into a tie with the Chicago Bears for the final playoff spot, but I do not see it happening here, especially with a depleted San Francisco team coming off three straight losses to the Bills (understandable), Washington (OK) and Dallas (huh?).

Honestly, I just want to get my Big Bet out of the way early, and have something to cheer for today, in case I do have the opportunity to go to the Bears game tomorrow.  Other games I considered were Ravens (double digits) and Indianapolis (visiting team), so I selected Arizona.

Last Week's Record:  6-9-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  115-104-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($555)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $205

Picks of the Week

 

Worst week of the year.  Just horrible.  With a capital HOR!  Took away all my earnings from the year, and possibly puts me in the negative.  I won't know until I get to the bottom of this column and actually calculate it.  [Ed. Note - It did erase all my profits for the year.] Oh well.  Stretch run here we come.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Home team, short week.  Chargers with virtually no receivers.  Then Derek Carr gets hurt, then fumbles, then field goals instead of touchdowns and that's football.

Denver Broncos + 5 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Denver has been playing teams really close, winning by 5 at Carolina and by 6 at Kansas City in the last two games.  This game is a home game, on a short week in altitude.  Plus, Denver is a respectable 11th in third down percentage, and getting the defense off the field is important, especially in Denver.

Green Bay Packers - 8 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Packers are 2-1 in the last 3 games against a spread in which they were favored by more than 1 touchdown.  The "will he or won't he play" thing with McCaffrey has to be wearing on this team that has played really tough all season despite its 4-9 record.  The Packers are just too much right now.  Plus, I pick the home team on a short week.

  

Chicago Bears +3 at Minnesota Vikings

Let's not kid ourselves, I am taking whichever team is getting points in this clunker.

Indianapolis Colts -7 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Two weeks ago, I would have taken Houston in this game behind DeShaun Watson's remarkable season, figuring that the Texans lost by 6.  Now, the Texans are reeling, coming off a humbling at the hands of the Chicago Bears.  Houston's defense is 31st in total defense, 24th in passing defense, 31st in rushing defense, and 25th in scoring defense.  Jonathan Taylor to have a great game.

Detroit Lions +11 at Tennessee Titans

I know that Green Bay is a divisional rival of Detroit, and those games are always tough, but the Lions only lost by a touchdown to Green Bay.  I just think 11 points is too much.  Detroit 31-21.

Atlanta Falcons +6 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Who knew that Atlanta was going to play an important part in this year's playoff hunt, playing the Buccaneers twice in the last three games.  Tampa Bay is 21st in the passing defense and Atlanta is 6th in passing offense.  Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley keep Atlanta in this game.

Baltimore Ravens -13 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

This spreak is difficulty, because the streaky Jaguars, despite losting 12 in a row after an opening week over the Indianapolis Colts (who would have guessed that at this point in the season), have had some close losses.  Not this week as it will be tough with the Jaguars and their 30th ranked rush defense take on the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL.   Short week for Baltimore, so the spread is probably too high, but why not.

Miami Dolphins -2 v. New England Patriots

Miami always plays New England tough in Miami Gardens, even when a great disparity between the quality of the two teams existed.  This is a much different season, and Miami learned a lot about themselves in a tough loss to Kansas City.  Plus, Tuanigamnualepola Tagavailoa.

Seattle Seahawks -6 at Washington Football Team

West coast team travelling east playing the early game, except Russel Wilson has flipped those stats covering about 80% of the time in that situation.  Make it 100% of the time with Dwayne Haskins starting.  I still love typng "Football Team".

Dallas Cowboys +3 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco has had a strong season considering they lost all 41 starters to injury, 22 of them in the same game.  But, as the season has grinded along, they are just worn down.  I expect Dallas to capitalize on that.

Los Angeles Rams -17 1/2 v. New York Jets

This is a ridiculous line in an NFL game, but the Jets have lost by 17 or more 7 times this year.  And, this bet makes this game actually exciting.  Well, that and I have Jared Goff in the semi-finals of one of my fantasy leagues.

Arizona Cardinals -6 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Did Arizona right the ship last week by beating the Giants after 3 consecutive losses?  Or, is Jalen Hurts the remedy that Philadelphia needed to start to scare some teams and make a playoff run?  I think Arizona is playing the NFC East at just the right time.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at New Orleans Saints

The Saints desperately need Drew Brees back, as Taysom Hill is limited.  I think the Saints wished they played Jameis Winston a bit more during Brees' absence.  As it stands, they are going to lose their playoff bye.

New York Giants +6 v. Cleveland Browns

Cleveland is by far the better team in this game.  But, now hear me out, the Giants are 7th in the NFL in rushing defense, and might be able to slow down the Browns vaunted running game, which is third in the NFL.  That, and Cleveland has to experience a bit of a letdown after their stunningly close loss to Baltimore on Monday night (and this is a short week for Cleveland).

Pittsburgh Steelers -13 at Cincinnati Bengals

Brandon Allen.  Did I say Brandon Allen?  I meant Ryan Linley!

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers - 8 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Packers are 2-1 in the last 3 games against a spread in which they were favored by more than 1 touchdown.  The "will he or won't he play" thing with McCaffrey has to be wearing on this team that has played really tough all season despite its 4-9 record.  The Packers are just too much right now.  Plus, I pick the home team on a short week.

I really, really wanted to select Seattle here, but it is always better to take a home team.  In Aaron Rodgers we trust.  In Aaron Rodgers we hate, but we trust.

Last Week's Record:  4-12

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  109-95-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($985)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $760

Picks of the Week

 

Another really good week.  Could have been a great week, but for the damn Big Bet, and the damn Bears, who never once looked like they were going to lose until the strip sack in the fourth quarter.  Otherwise, the money would have been great.  Still up thanks to a 10-5 record.  Hopefully we can keep this rolling.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots +5 at Los Angeles Rams

Yes, I know, always take the home team on a short week.  But, the Patriots played in LA last week, and stayed on the west coast, so no travel.  I thought, for once, perhaps Belichick and found a way around the betting rules.  I thought wrong.  Perhaps it is because they were not at home for an entire week plus.

Houston Texans -2 at Chicago Bears

Just to think, DeShaun Watson was supposed to be playing in this game, except for the home team.  I will never forgive the Bears for that (or picking Curtis Enis over Randy Moss, but I digress.)

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville gets a jolt at home, to lose by 7.  Interestingly, the Jaguars have not allowed Derrick Henry to rush for 100 yards in any of his 4 games in Jacksonville, which is virtually Henry's home.  That fact, and perhaps the Titans let up just a bit against the Jaguars means they win, but don't cover.

Carolina Panthers -3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

This game is an absolute crapshoot.  I have heard from lots of "experts" and talked to a lot of friends, and the consensus is all over the board (meaning no consensu).  I'll just take the home team, if I have to have a reason to justify it.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 v. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys' defense is atrocious (last in the NFL in rushing defense and scoring; 24th in total defense.)  Add that to the fact that Dallas is playing on a short week, and giving points.  I will take them.

Miami Dolphins +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City, although winning, has not been dominant.  In fact, there last 4 wins have been by a combined 15 points, and that is only because they beat Denver by 6 last week.  Miami has been playing tough, solid football in all three phases of the game.  On top of that, Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa is starting to get comfortable on the field behind center.

New York Giants +2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

This was a really tough one for me to choose.  Arizona has lost 3 in a row after defeating Buffalo. So, does that mean they are sliding, or does that mean they are due?  Well, they aren't quite a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing at 1, but they are coming from the Mountain time zone, so I am going to take the home points.  Should the Giants when this game, they would have identical records with Arizona.

Minnesota Vikings +6 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

How is this not a 3 point spread?  I know Tampa Bay is at home, but geez, 6 1/2 seems high.  Strength on strength in this game as Minnesota - which relies heavily on Dalvin Cook - will be challenged by the NFL's number 1 rated rush defense.

  

Las Vegas Raiders +3 v. Indianapolis Colts

Honestly, I just didn't want to pick a road favorite here.  No other reason.

New York Jets +15 at Seattle Seahawks

I know that Seattle is very, very good offensively (3rd in total offens, 4th in scoring offense), and their defense has played much better as of late, but the Jets have recently lost by 3 to the Raiders, 6 to the Chargers, 3 to the Patrtiots, and 8 to the Bills.  They only other games in their last 6 have been a 24-0 shutout and a 20-3 loss to the Dolphins, who clearly have their number.  They have been playing teams pretty close, so I will take 2+ touchdowns.

Green Bay Packers -8 at Detroit Lions

Seems like I have to pick another road favorite.  If this spread was 10, with it being an intra-divisional game, I would have gone the other way, but at 8, I will take Aaron Rodgers.

Atlanta Falcons +1 at Los Angeles Chargers

I don't know what think about this one.  This is also strength-on-strength, with Atlanta's passing offense (without Julio Jones) going against the Chargers passing defense (5th in the NFL).  Everything about this game tells me to take the Chargers, so I am taking the Falcons.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Maybe Jalen Hurts is just the jolt that the Eagles need, however the announcement that Jason Peters is done for the season - and his career - is going to be too much.

Washington Football Team +3 at San Francisco 49ers

This defense line for Washington is outstanding - and first rounders all (Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen.)  Plus, Alex Smith is THE best story in the NFL this year.  And, San Francisco is on a short week.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

No, I am not overreacting to Pittsburgh's loss to Washington last week as everyone should have seen that coming after Pittsburgh's tumultuous prior week regareding scheduling of their game with the Ravens.  But, before that, they had not looked particularly dominant.  Despite Buffalo playing on a short week, I am taking the Bills due to the fact that they have been clicking of late.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

The Browns played their absolute best last week against Tennessee, and there is no way that they play like that twice in a row.  Yes, I am violating all types of gambling rules in this one (visiting intradivisional favorite; taking a team on a short week) but I feel the Browns aren't yet ready for this particular challenge.

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -8 at Detroit Lions

Seems like I have to pick another road favorite.  If this spread was 10, with it being an intra-divisional game, I would have gone the other way, but at 8, I will take Aaron Rodgers.

So, really?  I am taking a road favorite in an intra-divisional game, favored by 8 nonetheless, as my big bet.  Yes I am.  Why?  Because Detroit can't do that to me twice in a row, right?  And, because I have more faith in the Packers than the Saints (with Hurts being an unknown betting commodity) and Minnesota getting points.  Washington was a thought also.

Last Week's Record:  10-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  105-83-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $285
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1745

  

What a week.  The NFL schedule week 12 literally took an entire week, starting with the Houston Texans defeat of the Detroit Lions on the traditional Thanksgiving Thursday game, and ending with a thrice re-scheduled and finally played on Wednesday Pittsburgh Steelers win over the Baltimore Ravens, which featured Trace McSorley.  And really, Colin Kaepernick can't play in this NFL?  C'mon.  But, despite the length of the week, it was a fantastic bounce back game for your boy, going 11-5 and nailing my big bet.  So, I will take it and hopefully put together a winning-week streak.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

Yes, the Green Bay Packers hammered the Bears last week, but hear me out.  This was the first game Bill Lazor called the plays with Mitchell Trubisky playing quarterback, and they actually moved the ball.  One horrendous interception in the end zone and one missed face mask on a Trubisky fumble, and the game ends up a lot closer.  I only mention this because the Lions defense is atrocious - 25th in the league in 3rd percentage, 26th in passing defense, 28th in rushing defense, 29th in total defense, and 31st in scoring defense.  Lazor is going to have the Bears moving the ball up and down the field this week, giving Bears fans hope, which Trubisky will take away 2 to 3 weeks later.

Atlanta Falcons +3 v. New Orleans Saints

This Atlanta team might be the best 4-7 team ever, and if they had some coaching and a bit more savvy and clock management on the field would be 7-4.  I'll take points at home in an intradivisional game.  They key is which team's strength wins out - Atlanta's passing offense, or New Orleans' tough passing defense.

Houston Texans +3 v. Indianapolis Colts

For much the same reason as above, I will take the points at home in an intradivisional game.  This is a tough game to figure out as the Texans lose Will Fuller to a suspension for use of performance enhancing drugs, but they gain David Johnson back after 3 weeks on the injured reserve.  All of this may not mean much against Indy's defense (4th in total defense, 6th in passing defense, 7th in rushing defense and 9th in scoring defense).  But, I'll bet that you didn't realize DeShaun Watson has a 112.5 quarterback rating this year, did you?  That puts him third in the NFL behind only Aaron Rodgers 115.5 and Patrick Mahomes (115.5).

New York Jets +8 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are a west coast team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, and the Raiders are playing without Josh Jacobs.  With Jacobs the Raiders have the 8th best rushing offense in the NFL.  Without him, who knows, but the Jets do have the 11th best rushing defense.

Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

This game is likely to be the first game completed on Sunday, as we should expect a lot - and I mean a lot - of running plays.  Cleveland, behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, have the best rushing offense in the NFL whereas Tenneesse - behind Derrick Henry - is no slouch itself; second in the NFL in rushing offense.  The difference is that Cleveland is 9th in rushing defense while Tennessee is 17th.  Honestly, I pick the other way if this is a 2 1/2 or 3 point spread, but with 4 1/2, I'll take those points in a game in which possessions are likely to be limited due to a running clock because of the ground game.

Miami Dolphins -10 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

I am honestly torn on this one, having gone back-and-forth between Miami and Cincinnati before finally settling on Miami.  Cincinnati played the New York Giants close last week, behind a subpar game from Brandon Allen (really what did we expect), but, it was the Giants and Colt McCoy made an appearance.  So basically, they are not good.  I am making this pick based upon Ryan Fitzpatrick starting over Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa, which still really hasn't been officially announced yet, but Fitzpatrick would love to feast on the 22nd ranked pass defense in Cincinnati.

Jacksonville Jaguars +10 at Minnesota Vikings

Mike Glennon is starting for Jacksonville, but he did last week and the Jaguars only lost to Cleveland by 2.  Like Cleveland, Minnesota relies heavily upon its rushing game (6th in rushing offense; 17th in passing offense).  Plus, Minnesota has not looked good lately.

Los Angeles Rams -3 at Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are coming off two straight losses on the road (to the Seahawks and Patriots), and will have to fight to end that streak at home against the Rams and their stout defense (4th in 3rd down % and rushing defense, 3rd in passing defense and scoring defense, and 2nd in total defense).  Kenyan Drake has not been playing well since his return from injury making me wonder when the Cardinals will go back to Chase Edmonds.

  

Seattle Seahawks -11 v. New York Giants

Colt McCoy.  I don't think that even Seattle's short week can make up for the fact that Colt McCoy is playing.

Green Bay Packers -8 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Aaron Rodgers, as mentioned before, has the best QB rating in the NFL this year.  And although the Giants have a pretty good defense, they are vulnerable against the pass (19th in the NFL).  And, Philadelphia is floundering despite being only 1/2 game out of first place in the NFC East.  Plus, Philadelphis is on a short week.

New England Patriots +2 at  Los Angeles Chargers

The Patriots have won 3 of their last 4 games, their only loss being by 1 touchdown at Houston.  New England is 5th in rushing offense and the Chargers are 18th in rushing defense.  Los Angeles is 2nd in passing offense, so we could see some explosive plays, but New England is playing about as good as this version of the Patriots can.

Denver Broncos +13 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

So, before anybody gets carried away, the Chiefs are going to win this game, but 2 TDs is just too much.  But, Kansas City has only won its last 3 games by a combined total of 9 points, and that was to Carolina, Las Vegas, and Tampa Bay.  All good teams, certainly, but not the upper echelon of the league.  So, with some quarterbacks back this week for the Broncos, and being an intra-divisional game, I expect this one to be close-ish.  Kansas City by 10 wouldn't shock me.

Washington Football Team +7 at Pittsburgh Steelers

An incredibly short week for the Steelers, having played on Wednesday afternoon and now having this game moved from Sunday to Monday afternoon at 5:00.  At least they were home on Wednesday, and on this Monday.  The game against the Ravens was a tough, physical battle, as this one is likely to be as well.  The Steelers will be tested by Washington's defense, ranked 7th in scoring, 6th in total defense and 2nd in passing defense.  The Steelers very well may pull out a victory, but 7 seems high under the circumstances.

Buffalo Bills +1 at San Francisco 49ers

I cannot figure out these San Francisco 49ers, and if you say you have, you are a liar.  So, to be fair, I have no idea what is going to happen in the traditional Monday Night game.  But San Francisco's passing defense is 4th in the NFL (5th in total defense), and Buffalo's passing offense is 7th in the NFL (21st in rushing), so it'll be interesting if the 49ers can contain Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and company.  I think not, for no real particular reason.

Dallas Cowboys No Line at Baltimore Ravens

No line pending the Covid-19 situation surrounding Lamar Jackson.  Mark Ingram II, Calais Campbell and others came off the Covid-19 list today.  The announcement on Jackson is expected to be made Monday.  I will make a pick once the line is set.

Bye Week - Carolina Panthers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Big Bet

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

Yes, the Green Bay Packers hammered the Bears last week, but hear me out.  This was the first game Bill Lazor called the plays with Mitchell Trubisky playing quarterback, and they actually moved the ball.  One horrendous interception in the end zone and one missed face mask on a Trubisky fumble, and the game ends up a lot closer.  I only mention this because the Lions defense is atrocious - 25th in the league in 3rd percentage, 26th in passing defense, 28th in rushing defense, 29th in total defense, and 31st in scoring defense.  Lazor is going to have the Bears moving the ball up and down the field this week, giving Bears fans hope, which Trubisky will take away 2 to 3 weeks later.

Honestly, I hate making my Big Bet a Chicago Bears game, but I honestly feel like I saw something with the playcalling last week.  Not something like go far in the playoffs, but something that should be able to move the ball well against Detroit, with Allen Robinson getting like 10 catches, 143 yards type of movement.  And, I like some of the other lines, but I don't love them.  Atlanta and Green Bay I considered here, with Atlanta getting points at home a serious consideration, but I will stick with my original thought here.

Last Week's Record:  11-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  95-78-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $700
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1460

Picks of the Week

 

Another subpar week, but still up on the year, so that is a good thing.  This is a ridiculously tough week given all of the Covid 19 dianosis and re-schedulings that have occurred, and really should occur, who knows what is going to happen.  Honestly, I am taking SARS-CoV-2 giving 19.  For those of you keeping score, that is Covid -19.  The big bet has gotten my 4 weeks in a row, after starting 7-0.  This has to turn around if I am going to finish in the money.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans -3 at Detroit Lions

DeShaun Watson is quietly having his best season of his career, and coming off an absolute gem last week in defeating New England.  Detroit is a dumpster fire, with Mina Kimes already tweeting "Is Matt Stafford tall enough for John Elway".  And, this loss led to Detroit's firing of Head Coach Matt Patricia and the GM.

Washington Football Team +3 at Dallas Cowboys

I hate picking the road team in short weeks, and here I am picking two on Thanksgiving Day.  And, Dallas is even coming off a good performance last week against Minnesota Vikings.  However, I feel that performance is an anomaly, and the Cowboys are in the midst of a week in which they saw their strength and conditioning coach Markus Paul - a Chicago Bear - die at practice.  Must be emotional for them, but emotion is often hard to channel into performance.

Atlanta Falcons +3 v. Las Vegas Raiders

My third selection, why not going against the gambling rules again?  Well, because they are rules for a reason, and they pay off more often than not.  And, being a road favorite west coast team playing at the 1:00 time slot seems just way too many rules for me not to take the points.  I get that the Raiders are better, but their best attribute is running the football - but that is only 7th in the NFL.  And, their passing defense is 28th in the NFL going against the 2nd best passing offense in the league.  Maybe the Raiders win, but they don't cover.

Buffalo Bills -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are 2-3 in their last 5, but those two wins come against the Jets and the Jaguars, who are vying for the 1st overall pick in next year's NFL draft.  Chargers have talent, for sure, but travelling west to play an early game against teh AFC East leading Buffalo Bills and their 4th rated passing offense is going to be too much.

New York Giants -6 at Cincinnati Bengals

Brandon Allen is staring in place of Joe Burrow.

Tennessee Titans +3 at Indianapolis Colts

The 5th best rushing offense (Tennessee - and the NFL's leading rusher in Derrick Henry) against the 3rd best rushing defense (Indianapolis).  This is going to be one tough, physical battle.  In those situations, I take the points.  Could this end 24-23 (in either direction?)

Cleveland Browns -7 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Mike Glennon is starting for Jacksonville.  This is my 4th road favorite already, but I cannot help it with the likes of Brandon Allen and Mike Glennon starting.

Minnesota Vikings -3 v. Carolina Panthers 

Minnesota has to rebound from last week's loss to the Dallas Cowboys, right?  Plus, Carolina has a middling rush defense (18th in the NFL) to try to stop the league's second-leading rusher, Dalvin Cook.  I don't think they do, but this was a tough game for me to decide.

New England Patriots +1 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona is a west coast team travelling east and playing in the early game.  And, after beating Baltimore two weeks ago, the Patriots lost to a Houston team (on the road), that just recently decimated the Detroit Lions (yes, it is Detroit, but still).  I don't think this will be a pretty game, so I will take points at home.

Miami Dolphins -7 at New York Jets

Why would I take a fifth road favorite?  Well, because the Dolphins already beat the Jets 24-0 just a few weeks ago, Ryan Fitzpatrick coming off a benching is practically invincible, and the Jets must be actively playing for the first overall pick.  The thing that scares me here is that Sam Darnold - who is getting the start at QB for the Jets - is playing a showcase game for whichever team wants to trade for him for next season.

New Orleans Saints -6 1/2 at Denver Broncos

I honestly do not expect this game to occur.  Quarterback Jeff Driskel's positive Covid-19 test and the resulting contact tracing now makes quarterbacks Drew Lock, Brett Rypien and Blake Bortles ineligible to play this week.  I know, I know.  You didn't realize Blake Bortles was still in the league either.  So, the Broncos will have to go with Royce Freeman, their usual emergency quarterback), or practice squad receiver Kendall Hilton, who played some quarterback at Wake Forest.  I expect this game to be a massacre.

Los Angeles Rams -7 v. San Francisco 49ers

The Rams are starting to really click with wins over Seattle and Tampa Bay after the crazy loss at Miami in Tuanigamanualepola Tagavailoa's debut start.  San Francisco, which earlier defeated the Rams, are a shell of their former selves with basically nobody left healthy from their opening day roster.  And, they just received news that Santa Clara, the actual municipality where they play their home games, has put a 21 day Covid-19 moratorium on any contact sports being played in the city limits - and the 49ers are supposed to have two home games during this period.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

I did not want to pick Tampa Bay here, honestly, but I did not want to select a seventh road favorite.  And, even when winning recently, the Chiefs have played some close games, and haven't looked like they are completely clicking.  So, I'll take more than a field goal at home.

Chicago Bears +9 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Mitchell Trubisky is back, cue fake hoorays!!!  Honestly, Green Bay is going to win this game, but given that Trubisky is good at comebacks in the 4th quarter, he scores a late touchdown to lose by 8.

Seattle Seahawks -5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

The Seahawks defense is actually improving, giving up only 21 to Arizona last week and 16 to the Rams the week prior.  Philadelphia is horrible.  So, great.  a 7th road favorite!!!

Pittsburgh Steelers (No Line Yet) v. Baltimore Ravens

Playing on Tuesday, after being moved from Sunday, after being moved from Thanksgiving prime time due to Covid.  Once the Steelers complained that this is the second time they have had games moved (including losing a bye week) due to the other team's Covid issues, they had at least 2 players (Stephon Tuitt and James Conner) test positive.  Not sure who is going to be playing or what the line is going to be.  I assume that I am taking the Steelers as Lamar Jackson won't be playing.  I will make my official selection once the line is made.

Bye Week - Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet

New Orleans Saints -6 1/2 at Denver Broncos

I honestly do not expect this game to occur.  Quarterback Jeff Driskel's positive Covid-19 test and the resulting contact tracing now makes quarterbacks Drew Lock, Brett Rypien and Blake Bortles ineligible to play this week.  I know, I know.  You didn't realize Blake Bortles was still in the league either.  So, the Broncos will have to go with Royce Freeman, their usual emergency quarterback), or practice squad receiver Kendall Hilton, who played some quarterback at Wake Forest.  I expect this game to be a massacre.

I hate picking road teams as my big bet, especially when giving points, but this is a unique situations.  My primary concern would be a letdown by the Saints.  But seriously, though, look at this quarterback room ... Drew Lock, Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien and Blake Bortles.  And you are telling me that Colin Kaepernick couldn't play quarterback in the NFL today?!  Seriously?! 

If, and only if, the New Orleans at Denver game is canceled, I select the following as my Big Bet, and I am by no means happy about is.

Cleveland Browns -7 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Mike Glennon is starting for Jacksonville.  This is my 4th road favorite already, but I cannot help it with the likes of Brandon Allen and Mike Glennon starting.

I am not happy because I was selecting between three 7 point favorites, only 1 of which was at home.  But, given that this isn't a divisional rivalry and that it involves Brandon Allen and/or Ryan Finley, I will take this game as my backup Big Bet.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  84-73-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $760

Picks of the Week

   

The season is getting tougher and tougher now as the casino actuaries have a much better feel on all of the teams so the lines are ridiculously tough.  Let's see if we can't motor through a winning week before the always tough Thanksgiving week.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Arizona Cardinals

I hated this line and I hated this pick.  Problem is, I would have hated it the other way also.  I will take that win.

Tennessee Titans +6 at Baltimore Ravens

Remember just recently when people were touting Tennessee as the best team in the NFL.  That was before losing 3 of 4, and that 1 win being against the Chicago Bears.  But, they are still tough and their losses have generally been close (except for punter problems against Indianapolis.)  I am not saying they win this game, but it should be close.  A tough, tough game for both teams.

Detroit Lions -1 at Carolina Panthers

This doesn't really count as picking a road favorite, but with Teddy Two Gloves possible still not even playing, I have to take Detroit.  Carolina has played some tough, close games without Christian McCaffrey, but without him and Bridgewater?  Probably too much.  And, I stand by this pick even if Bridgewater plays, because he is hurt more than Matthew Stafford.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia has the 26th ranked rush defense, and Nick Chubb ran for 126 yards on only 19 carries in his return from injury last week.  Kareem Hunt added 104 yards on 19 carries.  This game could get ugly.

New England Patriots -2 at Houston Texans

This Patriots team is still a shadow of its former self, but it competes and it has Belichick.  This Texans team is in complete disarray, ranking 19th in total offense, 25th in scoring offense, 31st (next to last) in total defense and 26th in scoring defense.  Bottom line, who do you trust  in this game?  Oh yeah, and Sony Michel is back for the Patriots.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 10 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh could honestly win this by 30.  But, they did play Green Bay close, and they are at home, so I will almost always take double digits.

Atlanta Falcons +3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Football-wise, the Falcons have the second-most explosive passing offense (with Calvin Ridley returning to the lineup), and the Saints are in the middle of pass defense rankings (15th).  In reality, Taysom Hill brings a lot to the table, but not as an every down quarterback.  I think the Saints might turn to Jameis Winston at some point in this game, and if so, they are going to regret not giving him the first team snaps this week.

Washington Football Team -1 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow is having a remarkable rookie campaign, but the Football Team has the number 1 ranked passing defense in the entire NFL, holding opponents to an average of 194 yards.  That and the incredible story that is Alex Smith (coming soon on an ESPN 30 for 30 AND Disney+ movie near you).  (Well, not technically yet, but it is bound to happen, right?)

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

This, in an ordinary year, would be an easy pick for me - and I would take Denver.   Denver is at home in the mile high air, has an adequate defense, and has shocked the likes of New England at home this season.  But, Denver doesn't yet know if Drew Lock or Brett Rypien is quarterbacking today, and Miami has been on a run since Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa has started (even though his play has been OK to good, not great), and this team is playing inspired football.  Give me the Dolphins.

Los Angeles Chargers -9 1/2 v. New York Jets

Although 0-9, the Jets have played some close, tough games ... AT HOME.  Unfortunately, this game is on the road, where the Jets have lost by 10, 29, 24 and 26.  That and the Chargers have risen to 7th in the NFL in passing offense, (3rd since Justin Herbert took over), and the Jets are 29th in pass defense.  The fact that this is a 13 point spread astounds me.

Green Bay Packers +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis has played remarkable at times, and no more impressive than last week's 34-17 defeat of Tennessee on the road.  But, Ryan Tannehill, for all he has accomplished in Nashville, is not Aaron Rodgers.  And, more importantly JK Scott is much better at punting than the revolving door at the Titans team facility.  Plus, Aaron Rodgers gets Allen Lazard back as well.  And, I get points!!!  I'll take them.

Dallas Cowboys +7 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

Every week has that one game that surprises everybody, right?  So I think this one is it, and I will pick against my instincts.  Yes the Minnesota Vikings and their running game with Dalvin Cook has been amazing.  But, the Chicago Bears showed a blue print that can keep Cook in check.  However, the Cowboys' defense is certainly NOT the Bears' defense.  Deciding factors?  Minnesota is on a short week having played Monday night, and the Cowboys played the Pittsburgh Steelers incredibly tough.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Las Vegas Raiders

Yes, 7 points is a big number for a road favorite in an intradivisional game, especially when the home underdog already defeated the road favorite earlier this year.  But, that should be an incentive for the road favorite, especially when the Raiders' defense - well, team really - is ravaged by Covid.  At the beginning of the week 8 of 11 defensive starters were on the Covid list.  Who knows how many will be ready to play?

Los Angeles Rams +4 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I honestly am not sure which way to pick this game, but the Rams' performace last week against Seattle was great.  I will take the points here, since in my mind this shoul dbe a 2 1/2 to 3 points spread.

Bye Week - Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet

New England Patriots -2 at Houston Texans

This Patriots team is still a shadow of its former self, but it competes and it has Belichick.  This Texans team is in complete disarray, ranking 19th in total offense, 25th in scoring offense, 31st (next to last) in total defense and 26th in scoring defense.  Bottom line, who do you trust  in this game?  Oh yeah, and Sony Michel is back for the Patriots.

OK - so I hate picking road teams as my big bet, but my first choice was originally the Browns over Philadelphia.  But, they burnt me last week as my Big Bet, so I am not picking them twice in a row.  My other choices were Miami over Denver and Green Bay over Indianapolis, and they were both road teams as well, and Indianapolis has a phenomenal defense.  So, Belichick it is.

Last Week's Record:  7-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  78-65-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($235)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1205

Picks of the Week

  

Hello Friends.  That's right, it is Masters Sunday.  And nobody is as psyched as I am for a slate of early games ending as the Masters Champion is crowned.  Too bad Dustin Johnson left himself a four-shot cushion, because this was shaping up to be a great battle after the second round.  

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans +1 v. Indianapolis Colts

Remember way back three weeks ago when people were discussing the Titans as being the best team in the NFL?  Well, their punter isn't.

Carolina Panthers +6 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Yes, I know Carolina is without Christian McCaffrey, but this spread just seems a little high. I look for Teddy Two Gloves (is their a better mafia nickname in the NFL) and a resurgent Curtis Samuel, to have good enough games against Tampa's middling pass defense (14th in the league) to keep this game close, amd Joey Slye to have a bunch of field goals.

Cleveland Browns -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Nick Chubb is activated just in time to face the NFL's worst run defense.  I expect Chubb to make up for lost time.

Washington Football Team +3 v. Detroit Lions

When I first saw this line, I immediately said, "Detroit, clearly".  (Well, maybe I shouldn't have used quotation marks because I didn't actually say it, but you know what I mean.)  But looking into it, yes the offense struggle smightily (30th overall in both total offense and scoring offense), but the defense has been stout (6th in total defense, 1st in passing defense).  Their struggles against the run (23rd in rush defense) should not be a problem against the Lions 24th ranked rush offense).

Green Bay Packers -13 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Now that Aaron Rodgers has his fellow Aaron running mate back (Aaron Jones), this offense should kill against the NFL's 31st ranked scoring defense, 29th ranked total defense, 28th ranked passing defense, and 27th ranked rushing defense).  Suddenly, the Jaguars are in the running for Trevor Lawrence/Justin Fields.

New York Giants +4 v. Philadelphia Eagles

The Giants have played really close games lately, winning by 3 last week over Washington, then playing games decided by 2 (loss), 1 (loss), 1 (win), and 3 (loss) respectively to Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas in the four games prior.  There is no reason to think this is a four point game.  And, I cannot believe I am typing this, but this is an incredibly important game with playoff implications.

Los Angeles Chargers +2 at Miami Dolphins

I feel that everyone is jumping on the Dolphins by virtue of their two consective wins behind Tuanigamanuaepola Tagavailoa, but it is Justin Herbert that has actually been putting up numbers.  The Chargers have a wonderful offense (2nd overall, 5th in passing offense, 8th in rushing offense), which should be too much for the Dolphins, who do celebrate the return of linebacker Kyle van Noy.   Los Angeles benefits from the 4:00 start.

Arizona Cardinals -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Listen, I realize that this Bills team is way better than we all thought, and that was even coming off a playoff season.  But, their middle-of-the-road defense might have their hands full with Arizona's 3rd ranked total offense (2nd in rushing), which will also see the return of Kenyan Drake.

Las Vegas Raiders -4 v. Denver Broncos

I have not been able to figure either of these teams out (although my pick of Denver a number of weeks ago against New England was widely scorned - even though correct), so I am just taking the home team.

Pittsburgh Steelers -7 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow has at least made Cincinnati's offense exciting, but this game does not bode well for the Bengals.  Pittsburgh has the 7th best total defense, 5th best pass defense, 9th best rush defense and 4th best scoring defense.  AND, Ben Roethlisberger can play despite being exposed to Vance McDonald, who was diagnosed with Covid-19.

Los Angeles Rams -2 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Russel Wilson hs led Seattle to the number 1 socring offense, passing offense and total offense, which they need desperately because their defense is 30th in scoring defense, and dead last in passing defense and total defense.  I feel that Sean McVay with his multi-formation, multi-movement, elusive offense could take advantage of the Seahawks defense to win this game.

New Orleans Saints -9 v. San Francisco 49ers

I know that the NFL changes week-to-week, and not to read too much into any given game or week, but last week's thrashings (by New Orleans of Tampa Bay and of San Francisco by Green Bay) are incredibly hard to ignore.  Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders being back is huge for the Saints.

Baltimore Ravens -7 at New England Patriots

The number 1 rushing offense in the NFL at just over 170 yards per game, against a New England defense that is 25th in the NFL in rushing defense.  Plus, New England is on a short week.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Minnesota Vikings

Yes, I know this looks like a homer pick, but it really isn't.  It is just the law of averages.  Dalvin Cook cannot have games like the last two weeks, and he has to come back to earth at some point, why not on Monday night?

Bye Week - Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets

Big Bet

Cleveland Browns -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Nick Chubb is activated just in time to face the NFL's worst run defense.  I expect Chubb to make up for lost time.

Houston's defense is just not very good, and the offense is lackluster.  I wonder if DeShaun Watson wishes he had DeAndre Hopkins back?  Yes, that was rhetorical.  My other thoughs were New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  71-58-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1440