Merry Christmas weekend everybody, and the NFL is in full effect trying to take over another holiday. Games on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, and going head-to-head with the NBA's marquis matchups on Christmas Day. As you will see from my first pick, which league won yesterday.
As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid. I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Minnesota Vikings +6 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
So, after family time, and family lunch, this house had on the NBA games (GO HEAT!!!) Paying so much attention to what is technically the real not actual start to the NBA season (although this year is the actual start to the season), that we basically forgot about this game. So much so that I did not put my pick out in the ether. But, everyone that reads this blog regularly knows that I prefer home teams on short weeks, so this makes this game an easy win, right? Nope. Being so discombobulated by rushing the selection, my dumb ass selected Minnesota because for some reason I thought they were the home team. I realized it before the first score, but, cannot change a bet after the game starts. Oops.
Detroit Lions +10 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
So yes, the home team on a short week, but also a home team getting double digit points. Tampa Bay has not been dominating teams, even in wins, and Detroit has played some difficult teams close, despite being run through by the Titans last week.
Arizona Cardinals -5 v. San Francisco 49ers
I would love nothing more than to cheer for a Cardinals loss this week, potentially putting them into a tie with the Chicago Bears for the final playoff spot, but I do not see it happening here, especially with a depleted San Francisco team coming off three straight losses to the Bills (understandable), Washington (OK) and Dallas (huh?).
Miami Dolphins -3 at Las Vegas Raiders
Not the home team on a short week, but home teams on short weeks win about 2/3 of the time - perhaps this is the third time. (Although with my luck Tampa covers and the Raiders win this game - but that is why they call it gambling). The Dolphins have a shockingly good defense, and by shocking it is because they are 18th in passing defense, 19th in rushing defense, and 20th in total defense, but 1st in scoring defense). The Raiders are not good enough on offense to exploit this, so I will take the Dolphins, even as a road favorite, especially since the Dolphins are starting to open up the playbook for Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa.
Chicago Bears -7 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
So your boy is still holding out hope that he might be able to attend the game (currently in Jacksonville). Why would I pick the Bears as a more than TD favorite on the road? Well, the Jaguars are currently 28th in passing defense, 30th in rushing defense, 30th in scoring defense and dead last (32nd) in total defense. Trubisky and the Bears offense are clicking a bit under Bill Lazor's playcalling and they should score a lot of points this week.
New York Jets +9 v. Cleveland Browns
The Browns have won 5 of their last 6, but each game has been close (3 points, 5 points, 2 points, 6 points, 5 points and a 14 point victory over the Giants last week). The Jets have little hope of winning two in a row, but their rushing defense is 14th in the league, so perhaps they slow down Chubb and Hunt enough to keep this close.
Baltimore Ravens -10 1/2 v. New York Giants
The Ravens, who are first in the league in rushing offense, have scored over 34 in each of their last 3 games (all wins), behind a sudden surge of passing from Lamar Jackson (6TDs, 1 INT) during that span.
Houston Texans -7 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
We should not overreact to the Bengals victory over Pittsburgh last week, as Pittsburgh was slipping by some teams even during their winning streak, but, the Texans are spiraling, having lost 3 in a row by a combined 42 points. However, two of those losses were to the Colts. Houston's is getting an MVP-type season from DeShaun Watson (second in passing yards and QB rating). Plus, Cincinnati is on a short week.
Atlanta Falcons +11 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City has won 9 in a row, by (from most recent) 3, 6, 6, 3, 4, 2, 26 (Jets), 27 (Broncos), and 9. Atlanta has the 4th best passing offense in the league, and although missing Julio Jones, should still score enough points to keep this game close.
Indianapolis Colts -1 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Indianapolis, with a win here, could possibly move up to second in the AFC playoff standings, whereas a loss by Pittsburgh could put them in to a tie with the Browns for the AFC North title, one game up on the Ravens. This would set up fireworks in the final week with the Steelers playing the Browns (and Ravens playing the Bengals). I expect all of this to happen.
Los Angeles Chargers -3 v. Denver Broncos
Justin Herbert has had a great rookie campaign, and looks to finish strong against a Broncos defense that might be missing rusher Bradley Chubb.
Washington Football Team -1 v. Carolina Panthers
I am making this selection on the premise that Alex Smith returns from his calf injury for the game at 80-85%. If this doesn't happen, this pick is not going to win.
Los Angeles Rams +1 at Seattle Seahawks
The Rams got caught looking ahead to this game last week, and dropped a game to the Jets that could have put them in a tie for the division lead with Seattle. Because of that, Seattle can clinch the division with a win today. The Rams counter with an amazing defense that ranks 3rd in scoring, 2nd in 3rd down percentage and rushing defense, and 1st in passing and total defense. Russell Wilson certainly will challenge any defense, but I expect Los Angeles to be up for the challenge.
Philadelphia Eagles -2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
So Dallas is playing better with Tony Pollard in the backfield instead of Ezekial Elliott, but Philadelphia has been playing MUCH better with Jalen Hurts at quarterback instead of Carson Wentz. Both teams still have a shot at the playoffs, but Jalen Hurts has a much more recent winning background, so I will take the Eagles in this game.
Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay has had a disappointing season against the spread, and a mediocre run defense which will take on the the NFL's leading rusher and biggest offensive tank in Derrick Henry. It would not surprise me if Tennessee won this one outright, but I do think the run game keeps Aaron Rodgers off the field enough that this game will be close.
New England Patriots +7 v. Buffalo Bills
These teams have already played once this year, with the Bills squeeking by the Patriots with a three point win in Buffalo. The Bills have gone 5-1 since that point, but the Patriots are a respectable 4-3 since that game as well. And, do we think Belichick has learned more or less about the Bills since then? I expect a close game in Foxboro.
Big Bet
Arizona Cardinals -5 v. San Francisco 49ers
I would love nothing more than to cheer for a Cardinals loss this week, potentially putting them into a tie with the Chicago Bears for the final playoff spot, but I do not see it happening here, especially with a depleted San Francisco team coming off three straight losses to the Bills (understandable), Washington (OK) and Dallas (huh?).
Honestly, I just want to get my Big Bet out of the way early, and have something to cheer for today, in case I do have the opportunity to go to the Bears game tomorrow. Other games I considered were Ravens (double digits) and Indianapolis (visiting team), so I selected Arizona.
Last Week's Record: 6-9-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1Year-to-Date Record: 115-104-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($555)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $205
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