Picks of the Week

THE NFL IS BACK, which also means the Picks of the Week are back.  For those returning readers, this is old hate, but for those that are new to the blog, I will pick each NFL game, hoping to win big money by the end of the season.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

New England Patriots -7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
After the offseason that the Patriots and Tom Brady have had, is there any doubt that they come out swinging tonight?!  Plus, the weather calls for some torrential downpours, and I have more trust in Belicheck creating some type of running game versus the Steelers who only have two running backs on its active roster.  Could this turn into a Julius Edelman versus Antonio Brown slot-catch fest?

Chicago Bears +6 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
I just think that the loss of Jordy Nelson is going to mean much more to the Packers that most people think; not enough to lost this game, but perhaps it is closer than it ordinarily would be.

Indianapolis -2 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
Regular readers know that I absolutely despise picking road favorites, plus the Bills are a really trendy pick to be vastly improved (perhaps playoffs?).  I am not on the bandwagon as Tyrod Taylor is going to have to prove to me that he can play at this level without turning the ball over.

Kansas City Chiefs +1 at Houston Texans
To me, Kansas City is a serious playoff contender.  The Texans have a potentially devastating defensive line with Jadeveon Clowney (finally) joining J>J. Watt, and with the addition of Vince Wilfork.  Jeremy Maclin will make a world of difference for the Chiefs offense.

Carolina Panthers -3 at Jacksonville Jaguars
My major caveat to selecting road favorites are "if they are playing at Jacksonville".  Bortles could make a big leap forward, however, unless T.J. Yeldon develops quicker than any Alabama running back not named Eddie Lacy, this offense could still be very stagnant.  At least Cam Newton has Greg Olsen to throw to.

New York Jets -3 v. Cleveland Browns
Two interesting stats from Sinickal, you tell me which one is more interesting.  (1) The Cleveland Browns have a person from each level of the organization suspended for week one (GM, Coach, Player); or (2) Of the five players received in the trade for Julio Jones, not a single one remains of their roster.  Plus, the Jets still have a defensive-minded coach in Todd Bowles and Ryan Fitzpatrick.  I look for a breakout year from Chris Ivory and Brandon Marshall should be astounding.

St. Louis Rams +4 v. Seattle
I really don't know why I am picking this game.  The Rams, while solid last year, did not make any drastic improvements for this week (Todd Gurley will not be playing for a bit).  But, I just have this feeling.  Seattle added Jimmy Graham, but St. Louis only gave up 2 touchdowns to tight ends all last year.

Arizona Cardinals -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints
The Cardinals return most of their defense, and their offense, although not spectacular, was very steady before Carson Palmer went down last year.  The Saints, meanwhile, have lost a lot.  Can Mark Ingram shoulder the load?  Is Josh Hill a suitable replacement for Jimmy Graham?  Who will step up at receiver?  Lots of questions to be answered.

San Diego Chargers -2 1/2 v. Detroit Lions
If Ameer Abdullah can be a primary running back in this league, the Lions offense, with Stafford, Johnson and Golden Tate, could be scary.  That being said, the Chargers have proven the past few years that they are good, and can be great.  I will take the known team over the unknown.

Baltimore Ravens +4 1/2 at Denver Broncos
The Ravens continually over-perform the experts, and I believe they will continue to do so.  A lot is expected of the Broncos, perhaps even the Super Bowl.  I don't see it this year.  Manning is aged a bit, and although C.J. Anderson is supposed to take some of the pressure off the passing game, the Broncos will do well to make the playoffs.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
Two very enigmatic teams; the Bengals because of the divide between their regular season and playoff performances; the Raiders because of the fact that they change coaches ever 4 weeks.  Khalil Mack is a future star in this league, but Cincinnati may have too much offense.

Tennessee Titans +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mariota versus Winston.  Interesting opening week matchup, huh?  Since there are two rookie quarterbacks starting in their first game, I think this will be low scoring and close.  Hence, I take the points.

Dallas Cowboys -6 v. New York Giants
Intra-divisional games are always tough, given the history the teams have with each other.  However, the Cowboys have good offensive players at every position, whereas the Giants have Odell Beckham, Jr.  I think the problems surrounding the team's handling of Jason-Pierre Paul's July 4th incident that resulted in the amputation of a finger will linger for awhile.

Atlanta Falcons +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
According to a lot of people I know, we might as well just give the Super Bowl to Philadelphia.  I know a bunch of idiots.  Is Sam Bradford that big of an upgrade over Nick Foles?  I know that Murray is NOT an upgrade over McCoy (runs too straight, not as fast, had a great o-line in Dallas).  The Falcons do have the best wide receiver in football, and my top candidate for defensive rookie of the year in Vic Beasley.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 at San Francisco
Minnesota has Adrian Peterson returning, while San Francisco has nobody returning.  Literally.  They all retired.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 at Washington Redskins
The Redskins might be the most dysfunctional team in sports not named the Miami Marlins.  Kirk Cousins?  Really?  Meanwhile, the Dolphins are much improved and might actually have the best defensive line in all of football by adding Ndamukung Suh to Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon.


Last Week: 0-0
Year-to-Date: 0-0
Big Bet Last Week: 0-0
Big Bet Year to Date: 0-0
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $0
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $0