Picks of the Week

HOORAY! The NFL is officially back with its first full slate of games, and nobody is happier than I am.  Since we have no pre-season, little or no fans, and everything is focused on Covid, I feel that I am in a perfect position to start the season with a bang.  Whether that is good or bad, who knows.  We shall see.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans + 9 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
No way Texans win this game, but if they had even tried to throw deep at least 2 or 3 times, this game is under 10.

Chicago Bears + 2 1/2 at Detroit Lions

We don't know if we are getting 2018 Mitchell Trubisky or 2019 Mitchell Trubisky, but this Bears defense, when fully healthy, can really do some things.  Robert Quinn isn't playing yet, but that shouldn't matter against a basically one-dimensional Lions offense that has to figure out what it is doing with its running game.  It may come to fruition this year (Peterson, Swift and Johnson), but it is going to take some time until they come up with a proper rotation. 

Atlanta Falcons +2 v. Seattle Seahawks

So, the fans issue is going to take a way from a lot of teams' home-field advantages.  However, until I see how teams settle in this season, I am still not going to be on a west coast team travelling east and playing the early game.  The travel is still the problem.  I think Seattle is going to be really good this year, but going to stick with the tried-and-true betting rules for this one.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Virtually the entire secondary of the Browns is going to miss this game, which means that Jackson will be able to throw, as well as run.  Cleveland's offense should not be as bad as last year, but I don't know if they can stop Baltimore enough to stay in this one.

New York Jets + 6 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
None of us know what we are getting with Sam Darnold in this one, and we do not know if Adam Gase is actually going to use Le'Veon Bell properly, but Darnold looked good at the end of last season and Gase has to know he needs Bell.  Stefon Diggs makes minimal difference in this game.

Carolina Panthers +3 v. Las Vegas Raiders

I can't believe I just typed "Las Vegas Raiders", but that excites me.  Carolina might have some growing pains, but Teddy Bridgewater is a solid, experienced professional.  So, I will bet against a west coast team travelling west and playing in the early game again, especially when giving up points, just like Seattle.

Indianapolis Colts -7 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Road intra-divisional favorites are tough to bet, but not when playing Jacksonville after the Jaguars have completely dismantled its teams.  Philip Rivers will be rejuvenated this year, with a running game and a great offensive line led by Quinten Nelson (and yes I just highlighted an offensive lineman).

Green Bay Packers +2 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

Is Dalvin Cook ready to go?  Does Aaron Rodgers have something to prove?  Do we see Jordan Love?  Who knows?  Give me the points.

Miami Dolphins +7 at New England Patriots
Bill Belichick blah, blah, blah.  Tom Brady is gone.  But, more importantly, the Patriots' entire defense opted out of this season.  Fitzpatrick slings enough to keep this one close.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 1/2 at Washington Football Team
So, I will not refer to the Washington Football Team as the Washington Racists this year, and those longtime blog readers know I have been doing that for a long time, not just the last year or two.  This is not a bandwagon issue.  Anyway, can Dwayne Haskins make the jump?  Can the Eagles run without Miles Sanders?  Can Carson Wentz continue to lead this team with a flawed roster?  Yes, at least this week.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Cincinnati Bengals

So, the Bengals have the late afternoon session, nullifying the west coast travelling of the Chargers.  The Chargers will miss Philip Rivers, but they have playmakers all over the field.  Joe Burrow has a ton o confidence, and some skill position talent (Joe Mixon and eventually A.J. Green).  But, I look for the Chargers linebackers with Denzell Perry man flanked by Kyzir White and Kenneth Murray to make a lot of plays on Burrow and the Bengals.

New Orleans Saints -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Everyone is going to talk/write about Brady, Fournette, Gronkowski and all of the new players.  It is going to take some time for them to gel.  Not so for Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas.

Arizona Cardinals +7 at San Francisco 49ers

A Super Bowl hangover for the 49ers, I feel.  And, a breakout MVP-caliber season for Kyler Murray with Kenyan Drake and Larry Fitzgerald all being joined by DeAndre Hopkins.

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Mike McCarthy has to make a lot of difference over Jason Garrett, right?

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 at New York Giants
TJ Watt, Bud Dupree, Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt should be in Daniel Jones' face all night.  Plus, Ben Roethlisberger is back.

Denver Broncos +3 v. Tennesee Titans

Just a gut feeling that Drew Lock is going to have a really good season, and Melvin Gordon is going to have a lot of running room with Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy opening things up for him.  Tennessee returns Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry,  but will be missing Adoree Jackson and Vic Beasley, whil Von Miller is out for the season for the Broncos.

Big Bet

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Virtually the entire secondary of the Browns is going to miss this game, which means that Jackson will be able to throw, as well as run.  Cleveland's offense should not be as bad as last year, but I don't know if they can stop Baltimore enough to stay in this one.

Baltimore's defense should be improved (really, can that happen?) with the additions of rookie inside linebacker Patrick Queen, drafted in the first round from LSU, and perennial Pro-Bowler and professional defensive menace Calais Campbell coming over from Jacksonville.

Last Week's Record: 0-0
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0
Year-to-Date Record:  0-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):