It's here. The NFL season is finally here. (Yes, I am aware that there was a game on Thursday evening). Last year was looking as if it was going to be horrible, but a late season surge, topped off with a great playoff run pushed my record to 154-133-5 on the season (2-2 for the Super Bowl). However, due to my horrendous he big bet guarantees, I finished in the hole $475. Considering I was done $1555 entering week 17, I consider myself on a winning streak.
My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else, a reminder. Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.
Kansas City Chiefs + 8 1/2 at New England Patriots
Yes, I did make this pick before kickoff of the Thursday night game. Long-time reader Brent Bellinger of Austin, Texas was checking in with me on Thursday to hope that Irma would not be interfering with the picks, and I wrote to him - on facebook no less - my pick. It is out in the ether for all the world to see. Twenty-plus people are gone from last year's Super Bowl winning team and this Chiefs team is fast - on both sides of the ball.
Atlanta Falcons - 6 1/2 at Chicago Bears
Well, I cannot cheer for Bears losses in hopes of drafting DeShaun Watson like last year, but their defense should be much improved. Not enough to slow down the Falcons, however. Look for Atlanta to forego the usual Super Bowl losing hangover. With a pricey, shiny new stadium, this seems like a completely new year for them. Matt Ryan and Vic Beasley could both again compete for offensive and defensive players of the year, respectively. I generally don't like the road favorite, and I will secretly cheer if I am wrong, but I feel pretty safe with this pick.
Buffalo Bills - 7 1/2 v. New York Jets
This game is awful to pick, and even worse to watch. My reasoning for picking the Bills is that the Jets may not score 7 1/2 points all season. At least Buffalo has LeSean McCoy. Plus, is it possible to trust Nathan Peterman more than all of the Jets' QBs combined?
Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati added Joe Mixon to an already crowded backfield, but with his talent, the Bengals won't be able to keep him off the field for too long. This will open up things for the passing game and A.J. Green will be the big recipient of Mixon's play. Does anyone even know a player on Baltimore with Flacco hurt? And he is hurt, whether he plays or not. Plus, Vontaze Burfict cannot take a bad personal foul penalty.
Cleveland Browns +9 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Yes, I know that this goes against conventional wisdom, and no, I don't think they will win outright. But, the Browns are improved, with 2 new interior lineman (J.C. Tretter and Kevin Zeitler) now joining future Hall-of-Famer Joe Thomas on the offensive line. They could sustain some drives, take time of the clock, and score a few points. Pittsburgh wins by 7.1
Detroit Lions +2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
Beware the game that looks too easy. If you see one like that, pick the other team. Arizona lost a lot on defense, including Calais Campbell, and although talented on offense, will give up a lot more points that last year. Detroit, behind Matthew Stafford, can score from anywhere on the field at any time (although not all the time - they aren't that talented). I like this game to be close at least, with Detroit possibly winning outright.
Houston Texans -5 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston got a lot better simply by getting rid of Brock Osweiler. The defense should still be stout, and DeAndre Hopkins might have a QB that can throw him something farther than a 5 yard hook. Jacksonville has been accumulating tons of talent on the defensive side of the ball, but needs to solve its problems at QB and RB. They think they have one problem fixed with Fournette. The other, not so much.
Tennessee Titans -3 v. Oakland Raiders
My sources tell me that the majority of bets in Vegas for this game are on the Raiders, but, the majority of the bets on account (meaning those that run a tab in Vegas) is for the Titans. Always go with the smart money over the everyday bettors. Even if I lose this one, that rule will make you a lot more money than not.Since the Raiders have problems on defense (other than Khalil Mack, of course), and since Marcus Mariota has the best receivers he has ever had (which isn't saying much), I will go with Tennessee in a bit of a shootout.
Philadelphia Eagles -1 at Washington Racists
So, the Eagles are a road favorite, but with only giving 1 point, we really aren't giving up too much. Carson Wentz threw the second most passes in the NFL in the second half of last season, and that was before Alshon Jeffrey joined the team. If the Eagles can balance things a bit on offensive, they should beat the Washington Racists who will have to live with Kirk Cousins throwing 40+ times a game until they find an established running back.
L.A. Rams -4 v. Indianapolis Colts
This is another game that I have no idea what to do with. Scott Tolzein? Seriously? They should have at least given Steven Morris a chance. I expect a lot of Todd Gurley and Frank Gore, so this will be an old-school bruising NFL game. I like the Rams defense in this type of game, even without Aaron Donald.
Seattle Seahawks +3 at Green Bay Packers
We shall see who eventually runs the ball for Seattle, but Russell Wilson is always steadily good. Although Aaron Rodgers is spectacular, but the Seahawks made the deal of the offseason (actually not technically the offseason), when they traded for Sheldon Richardson. Putting that tank in the middle of the defensive line only makes the pass rush of Michael Bennet, Cliff Avril and Frank Clark that much more lethal. With Richardson and Jarran Reed in the middle, the Packers might not gain any yards rushing.
Carolina Panthers -5 at San Francisco 49ers
Another game in which I feel forced to take the road favorite. I expect a big bounce back year from Cam Newton, especially given his new toy - Christian McCaffrey - who is just as lethal receiving as he is running the ball. The Panthers defense will again be strong, especially in this game going against the likes of Brian Hoyer, or perhaps Matt Barkley.
Dallas Cowboys -4 v. New York Giants
Ezekial Elliott will get to play in this divisional game giving the Giants wanderlust about what a real running back can do.
New Orleans Saints +3 at Minnesota Vikings
I know that the Vikings are all happy with their new running back, Dalvin Cook (who I think is going to be great - by the way), but this win goes to the Vikings' former running back Adrian Peterson; well more accurately to Drew Brees, who even in a down year led the NFL in completed passes, passing attempts and passing yards in 2016. Sam Bradford did lead the NFL in completion percentage, and most 100 play drives.
Los Angeles Chargers +3 at Denver Broncos
I feel like I have seen this game recently (an early season Monday Night Football upset by the Chargers over the Broncos), and I picked the then San Diego Chargers in that game as well - successfully even. Philip Rivers is still Philip Rivers, and Keenan Allen returns. Denver will still have a phenomenal defense, but they re-signed Brock Osweiler. WHO WAS CUT BY THE BROWNS!!!
Hurricane Irma giving points to Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Miami Dolphins
This is not a bad joke, or me making fun of those in the middle of a natural disaster. This is real, very real. For those that don't know me, I am in the middle of the northeast quadrant of the storm as we speak, and a tornado warning just ended 17 minutes ago. Vegas wouldn't take this bet, but Irma won.
Big Bet
Carolina Panthers -5 at San Francisco 49ers
I normally want to select a team that is either at home, or receiving points for my big bet. However, San Francisco looks to be soooooooo unbelievably bad this year, I think I have to start the season going against them as often as possible.
I normally want to select a team that is either at home, or receiving points for my big bet. However, San Francisco looks to be soooooooo unbelievably bad this year, I think I have to start the season going against them as often as possible.
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-0
Year-to-Date Record: 0-0-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $
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