Picks of the Week

It is back.  The NFL is back.  I know, it started Thursday, but I lost that pick so nobody can accuse me of cheating.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Carolina Panthers -3 at Denver Brocncos

The Panthers want to prove themselves I said.  Trevor Siemian is untested, I told myself.  What I should have said was, "Don't take road favorites".

Chicago Bears +6 at Houston Texans
No, this is not a homer pick.  I just don't think that Brock Osweiler is ready to lead a team to a 7 point victory when J.J. Watt is hampered by injuries and likely not 100%.  The Bears signing of Josh Sitton from the Packers was huge.

Tampa Bay +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
This is the year of the Winston, as Jameis starts strong, opening up a punishing fourth quarter rushing game by Doug Martin.  Atlanta - once again - is all flash an no substance.

Buffalo Bills +3 at Baltimore Ravens
Tyrod Taylor is bette than most people think, and I think the Ravens will be battling for the number 1 pick this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 4 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
Perhaps I learned my lesson about selecting road favorites.  I think the Jaguars look like they are going to good this year, in essence getting two first round picks with Dante Fowler returning to action.  Chris Ivory will provide some punishing runs.

Kansas City Chiefs -5 1/2 v. San Diego Chargers

Honestly, I have no idea what we have in the Chargers.  With the Chiefs, we have an incredible defense and a steady Alex Smith.

Oakland Raiders +1 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Since New Orleans is in the central time zone, I don't have to worry about the west coast team playing the early game in the east coast theory, so I can take points and bet on the up-and-coming Raiders offense.  I think Amari Cooper has a big game torching the Saints secondary.

New York Jets +2 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Ryan Fitzpatrick proves he should have been the glimmer in the Jets' management eyes the entire time.  Plus, home team getting points.  The Bengals are down to only A.J. Green as returning receivers, so it may take a few games for the offense to start gelling.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

I almost went the other way with this one, but it may be a few weeks too early to start picking them to cover, as they kept all 14 of their draft picks on the roster.  Not sold on Philadelphia either, but they may just be happy that Chip Kelly is gone.

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Ladies and gentlemen, Shaun Hill is getting 2 1/2 points.  SHAUN HILL?!

Miami Dolphins +10 at Seattle Seahawks

Way too early in the season to start giving double digit spreads.  If Arian Foster can still run, this should be a close loss for the Dolphins.

New York Giants pick 'em at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas was -22 in turnover margin last year (last in the NFL) and now they are starting a rookie quarterback.  Although Prescott is talented, he will make mistakes.  Eli is a solid veteran, but even with an unsteady running game, he has ODB!

Detroit Lions +3 at Indianapolis Colts

I feel the Colts are a bit overrated, and may not make the playoffs this year.  Detroit's offense was one of the league's best the last quarter of the season last year, and look to continue that production.

Arizona Cardinals -7 v. New England Patriots

Arizona has both one of the league's most explosive offenses, and one of the most staunchest defenses.  New England has Jimmy Garropolo and only 4 receivers on the entire roster.

Washington Redskins +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I will take points at home, and the Redskins have the making of a really nice offense with Kirk Cousins, Matt Jones - if he can hold onto the ball - and a revitalized DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon out wide, and Jordan Reed up the middle.  If their defense can finish middle of the road or better, this team can win their division.

San Francisco 49ers +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Even though Blaine Gabbert is starting, this team is coalescing around Colin Kaepernick.  Expect a healthy dose of Carlos Hyde.  The Rams need an identity, and you would think it would revolve around Todd Gurley - and it ultimately may - but we need to see it.

Big Bet Game of the Week

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Ladies and gentlemen, Shaun Hill is getting 2 1/2 points.  SHAUN HILL?!

I really was not sure which game to pick here, but I did find a home team getting points, and going against Shaun Hill.  I expect Mariota to have an excellent season this year, especially with a more potent running game than last year.

Last Week's Record:  0-0
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-0
Year-to-Date Record: 0-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $0
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $0