Picks of the Week

Not only is the NFL back, but so am I.  A great 11-4-1 week, which means this week will probably tank.  We did start off well by winning Thursday.  Let's see if we can keep this going.Cin

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals +1 v. Baltimore Ravens
The classic overreact game, where the Ravens are coming off their shellacking of the Buffalo Bills, to the point where they are road favorites in an intra-divisional game.  This was an easy pick for that reason.

Carolina Panthers +6 at Atlanta Falcons
So the Falcons played really tough against the Eagles on the road last week, but they lost a lot of really good players to injuries, including Safety Keanu Neal, Linebacker Deion Jones and Running Back Devante Freemen.  Julio Jones is still phenomenal, but he doesn't play defense.

Buffalo Bills + 7 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Yes the Bills are awful, but no they are not starting Nathan Peterman.  That, and given the fact that the Chargers are a west coast team travelling east to play in the early game, which historically - and significantly - favors the east coast team against-the-spread.   Boy is it hard to make this pick, though.  Really, really hard.

Green Bay Packers + 2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Another pick that it is really hard to make given we don't know Aaron Rodgers's full status.  We do know that he will play, so I will take the points at home.

New Orleans Saints -9 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
I almost selected the Browns here getting almost 10 points.  But, there is no way this Browns offense is as potent as the Buccaneers offense was last week  (Go FitzMagic!), and to top things off, this Josh Gordon situation has become as problematic as it ever could be for Cleveland and its offense.  When he is on the field he is dynamic.  When he is not, he is a dynamic pain-in-the-ass for the Browns.  New Orleans in a cakewalk.

Miami Dolphins +3 at New York Jets
Another overreacttive line based upon a surprise showing from last week.  Sam Darnold looked pretty good at times, but this should be a lot closer line that 3.  Miami 24-23, once again causing all of the Ryan Tannehill haters to have to be quiet for at least another week.

Kansas City Chiefs +4 at Pittsburgh Steelers
James Conner did have a great opening week replacing Le'Veon Bell, but this Steelers team just did not look right last week.  And, if Josh Gordon is going to torch your secondary, guess what Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill are going to do.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
I promise that this is not an overreaction to Tampa Bay's defeat of New Orleans last week, but more of a reaction to the play, or lack thereof, of Nick Foles.  The Eagles may very well win this game, but it will be close, so I will take the points.

Houston Texans -4 at Tennessee Titans
I hate road favorites, especially in intradivisional games, and doubly especially in games after the favorite looked pedestrian at best.  But then I hear that Blaine Gabbert is going to be making an appearance for the home underdog, and I feel much better.

Washington Racists +6 v. Indianapolis Colts
At some point in time I need to stop underestimate the Racists, especially when playing against mediocre and worst teams, which the Colts certainly are.

Arizona Cardinals +13 at Los Angeles Rams
For those that follow this blog, you know that I thing the Rams were the second best team in the league last week, and the Cardinals were the second worst.  You can see that here.  But, 13 points is a huge number.  Just huge.  I cannot pull the trigger on that big of a spread this early in the season.

San Francisco 49ers -6 v. Detroit Lions
This is another hard pick for me, as there is no way that the Lions play that bad this week.  Also, there is no way Garappolo plays that bad either.  I would feel more comfortable if this was 3 1/2-4 points.  I will still give them.

Denver -6 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
I have a strong feeling that this Raiders season is going to be a dumpster-fire.  That is all.

New England Patriots +1 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have a great defense.  GREAT.  But, they also have Blake Bortles against Tom Brady.  Yes the AFC Championship game was phenomenal and Jacksonville was on Myles Jack fumble recovery for touchdown away from being in the Super Bowl, but they were also one coaching staff afraid to put the ball in the hands of their starting quarterback away as well.  And ... they have the same quarterback.  Plus no -or very limited - Leonard Fournette.

New York Giants +3 at Dallas Cowboys
I don't think either of these teams is very good, thus, I will take the points.

Chicago Bears -3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Both teams looked lively in losses last week.  I am picking the Bears only because of more Khalil Mack!

Big Bet
Carolina Panthers +6 at Atlanta Falcons
So the Falcons played really tough against the Eagles on the road last week, but they lost a lot of really good players to injuries, including Safety Keanu Neal, Linebacker Deion Jones and Running Back Devante Freemen.  Julio Jones is still phenomenal, but he doesn't play defense.  Too many injuries to the Falcons.

Last Week's Record: 11-4-1

Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 11-4-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $810
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $810