Very mediocre week last week. This week seems pretty easy for me. As only two games are being played, I will pick the winner, against the spread, and the over/under for each.
As a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.
As a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.
WINNERS
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
To quote my boy Hopps, "I've seen this show before". This seems a bit obvious to me for some reason.
Carolina Panthers v. Arizona Cardinals
Carolina, despite what happened in the second half, thoroughly dominated the Seattle Seahawks, who might be the third or fourth best team in the entire league. Carolina wins this game, despite the fact that everyone thinks that Carson Palmer, along with Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown can take advantage of Carolina's secondary. Who, is going to take care of Cam Newton? Really tough year to have gotten rid of Darnell Dockett, Arizona.
AGAINST THE SPREAD
New England Patriots -3 at Denver Broncos
I know what you are saying, "Pepster, why would you take a road favorite in the playoffs?" Here is why. New England took Denver into overtime earlier this year without Julian Edelman, the single most important player for New England not named "Tom Brady". Why is Edelman that important? Because he gets himself open immediately off the line of scrimmage, which allows Tom Brady to throw those short passes which keeps the defensive pass rush from hitting him. If the team bunches up against Edelman, then Gronkowski then becomes open. And to quote Dan Lebatard, "Gronkowski is not human. Bill Belichick just found a polar bear and taught him how to catch things". Plus, Peyton Manning did not play in the earlier game, and Peyton is more of a detriment to the Broncos given that he is basically a shell of his former self. His play actually gives an extra 6 points to New England, in my opinion.
Carolina Panthers -3 v. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have had a great year, and are perhaps the second best team in the NFL, unfortunately, they are playing the best team in the NFL. Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis are the best linebacker combination in the NFL. I WILL NOT ARGUE THIS POINT!!! They have a phenomenal running game, led by Cam Newton, for whom Arizona's defense just cannot account. If Arizona is going to have a chance, they are going to have to win an absolute shootout, which brings Greg Olsen - the second best tight end in the league this year behind Gronk and highly touted member of the Seventh Floor Crew, into importance - which is not what Arizona wants to do. If Arizona can make it a shootout, Carson Palmer will have to keep his interceptions down to 0 or 1, which can be tough.
OVER/UNDER
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos 45 - OVER
The Patriots with Gronkowski and Edelman is good for at least 30 themselves, despite the talent on Denver's defense. The quick passing game will not allow the Broncos' defense to hit Brady with any regularity, and thus, he will pick them apart little by little. Denver - in order to win - is going to have to rely heavily on its inconsistent running game, which Belichick will gameplan against. They will tempt Manning to beat them, which he cannot do.
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers 47 1/2 - OVER
Lots and lots of points to be scored today, although I feel the over won't be hit until late in the fourth quarter, when a rallying Arizona Cardinals team scores a touchdown with around 2 minutes to go, just before they fail to recover the onside kick. One note about the Panthers courtesy of Bomani Jones and his producer. While discussing that Patrick Peterson could cover Ted Ginn, Jr. man-to-man in order to take him out of the game, Jones's producer states that Corey Jones and Jerricho Cotchery will have to have big games. Bomani Jones's response is simple. "It's 2016 and we are talking about Jerricho Cotchery". Now you may think that quote would lead me to pick Arizona, but that goes to show how great Cam Newton and Greg Olsen have been this year - Carolina is winning with Ted Ginn and Jerricho Cotchery.
Big Bet Game of the Week
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Going back to my boy Hopps, "I've seen this show before".
Playoff Winners to Date: 5-3
Last Week's Record: 4-4
Playoff Record: 8-11
Year-to-Date Record: 136-127-5
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 13-6
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: ($205)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $590
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 13-6
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: ($205)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $590
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