Picks of the Week

   

The season is getting tougher and tougher now as the casino actuaries have a much better feel on all of the teams so the lines are ridiculously tough.  Let's see if we can't motor through a winning week before the always tough Thanksgiving week.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Arizona Cardinals

I hated this line and I hated this pick.  Problem is, I would have hated it the other way also.  I will take that win.

Tennessee Titans +6 at Baltimore Ravens

Remember just recently when people were touting Tennessee as the best team in the NFL.  That was before losing 3 of 4, and that 1 win being against the Chicago Bears.  But, they are still tough and their losses have generally been close (except for punter problems against Indianapolis.)  I am not saying they win this game, but it should be close.  A tough, tough game for both teams.

Detroit Lions -1 at Carolina Panthers

This doesn't really count as picking a road favorite, but with Teddy Two Gloves possible still not even playing, I have to take Detroit.  Carolina has played some tough, close games without Christian McCaffrey, but without him and Bridgewater?  Probably too much.  And, I stand by this pick even if Bridgewater plays, because he is hurt more than Matthew Stafford.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia has the 26th ranked rush defense, and Nick Chubb ran for 126 yards on only 19 carries in his return from injury last week.  Kareem Hunt added 104 yards on 19 carries.  This game could get ugly.

New England Patriots -2 at Houston Texans

This Patriots team is still a shadow of its former self, but it competes and it has Belichick.  This Texans team is in complete disarray, ranking 19th in total offense, 25th in scoring offense, 31st (next to last) in total defense and 26th in scoring defense.  Bottom line, who do you trust  in this game?  Oh yeah, and Sony Michel is back for the Patriots.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 10 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh could honestly win this by 30.  But, they did play Green Bay close, and they are at home, so I will almost always take double digits.

Atlanta Falcons +3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Football-wise, the Falcons have the second-most explosive passing offense (with Calvin Ridley returning to the lineup), and the Saints are in the middle of pass defense rankings (15th).  In reality, Taysom Hill brings a lot to the table, but not as an every down quarterback.  I think the Saints might turn to Jameis Winston at some point in this game, and if so, they are going to regret not giving him the first team snaps this week.

Washington Football Team -1 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow is having a remarkable rookie campaign, but the Football Team has the number 1 ranked passing defense in the entire NFL, holding opponents to an average of 194 yards.  That and the incredible story that is Alex Smith (coming soon on an ESPN 30 for 30 AND Disney+ movie near you).  (Well, not technically yet, but it is bound to happen, right?)

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

This, in an ordinary year, would be an easy pick for me - and I would take Denver.   Denver is at home in the mile high air, has an adequate defense, and has shocked the likes of New England at home this season.  But, Denver doesn't yet know if Drew Lock or Brett Rypien is quarterbacking today, and Miami has been on a run since Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa has started (even though his play has been OK to good, not great), and this team is playing inspired football.  Give me the Dolphins.

Los Angeles Chargers -9 1/2 v. New York Jets

Although 0-9, the Jets have played some close, tough games ... AT HOME.  Unfortunately, this game is on the road, where the Jets have lost by 10, 29, 24 and 26.  That and the Chargers have risen to 7th in the NFL in passing offense, (3rd since Justin Herbert took over), and the Jets are 29th in pass defense.  The fact that this is a 13 point spread astounds me.

Green Bay Packers +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis has played remarkable at times, and no more impressive than last week's 34-17 defeat of Tennessee on the road.  But, Ryan Tannehill, for all he has accomplished in Nashville, is not Aaron Rodgers.  And, more importantly JK Scott is much better at punting than the revolving door at the Titans team facility.  Plus, Aaron Rodgers gets Allen Lazard back as well.  And, I get points!!!  I'll take them.

Dallas Cowboys +7 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

Every week has that one game that surprises everybody, right?  So I think this one is it, and I will pick against my instincts.  Yes the Minnesota Vikings and their running game with Dalvin Cook has been amazing.  But, the Chicago Bears showed a blue print that can keep Cook in check.  However, the Cowboys' defense is certainly NOT the Bears' defense.  Deciding factors?  Minnesota is on a short week having played Monday night, and the Cowboys played the Pittsburgh Steelers incredibly tough.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Las Vegas Raiders

Yes, 7 points is a big number for a road favorite in an intradivisional game, especially when the home underdog already defeated the road favorite earlier this year.  But, that should be an incentive for the road favorite, especially when the Raiders' defense - well, team really - is ravaged by Covid.  At the beginning of the week 8 of 11 defensive starters were on the Covid list.  Who knows how many will be ready to play?

Los Angeles Rams +4 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I honestly am not sure which way to pick this game, but the Rams' performace last week against Seattle was great.  I will take the points here, since in my mind this shoul dbe a 2 1/2 to 3 points spread.

Bye Week - Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet

New England Patriots -2 at Houston Texans

This Patriots team is still a shadow of its former self, but it competes and it has Belichick.  This Texans team is in complete disarray, ranking 19th in total offense, 25th in scoring offense, 31st (next to last) in total defense and 26th in scoring defense.  Bottom line, who do you trust  in this game?  Oh yeah, and Sony Michel is back for the Patriots.

OK - so I hate picking road teams as my big bet, but my first choice was originally the Browns over Philadelphia.  But, they burnt me last week as my Big Bet, so I am not picking them twice in a row.  My other choices were Miami over Denver and Green Bay over Indianapolis, and they were both road teams as well, and Indianapolis has a phenomenal defense.  So, Belichick it is.

Last Week's Record:  7-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  78-65-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($235)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1205

Picks of the Week

  

Hello Friends.  That's right, it is Masters Sunday.  And nobody is as psyched as I am for a slate of early games ending as the Masters Champion is crowned.  Too bad Dustin Johnson left himself a four-shot cushion, because this was shaping up to be a great battle after the second round.  

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans +1 v. Indianapolis Colts

Remember way back three weeks ago when people were discussing the Titans as being the best team in the NFL?  Well, their punter isn't.

Carolina Panthers +6 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Yes, I know Carolina is without Christian McCaffrey, but this spread just seems a little high. I look for Teddy Two Gloves (is their a better mafia nickname in the NFL) and a resurgent Curtis Samuel, to have good enough games against Tampa's middling pass defense (14th in the league) to keep this game close, amd Joey Slye to have a bunch of field goals.

Cleveland Browns -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Nick Chubb is activated just in time to face the NFL's worst run defense.  I expect Chubb to make up for lost time.

Washington Football Team +3 v. Detroit Lions

When I first saw this line, I immediately said, "Detroit, clearly".  (Well, maybe I shouldn't have used quotation marks because I didn't actually say it, but you know what I mean.)  But looking into it, yes the offense struggle smightily (30th overall in both total offense and scoring offense), but the defense has been stout (6th in total defense, 1st in passing defense).  Their struggles against the run (23rd in rush defense) should not be a problem against the Lions 24th ranked rush offense).

Green Bay Packers -13 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Now that Aaron Rodgers has his fellow Aaron running mate back (Aaron Jones), this offense should kill against the NFL's 31st ranked scoring defense, 29th ranked total defense, 28th ranked passing defense, and 27th ranked rushing defense).  Suddenly, the Jaguars are in the running for Trevor Lawrence/Justin Fields.

New York Giants +4 v. Philadelphia Eagles

The Giants have played really close games lately, winning by 3 last week over Washington, then playing games decided by 2 (loss), 1 (loss), 1 (win), and 3 (loss) respectively to Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Washington and Dallas in the four games prior.  There is no reason to think this is a four point game.  And, I cannot believe I am typing this, but this is an incredibly important game with playoff implications.

Los Angeles Chargers +2 at Miami Dolphins

I feel that everyone is jumping on the Dolphins by virtue of their two consective wins behind Tuanigamanuaepola Tagavailoa, but it is Justin Herbert that has actually been putting up numbers.  The Chargers have a wonderful offense (2nd overall, 5th in passing offense, 8th in rushing offense), which should be too much for the Dolphins, who do celebrate the return of linebacker Kyle van Noy.   Los Angeles benefits from the 4:00 start.

Arizona Cardinals -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Listen, I realize that this Bills team is way better than we all thought, and that was even coming off a playoff season.  But, their middle-of-the-road defense might have their hands full with Arizona's 3rd ranked total offense (2nd in rushing), which will also see the return of Kenyan Drake.

Las Vegas Raiders -4 v. Denver Broncos

I have not been able to figure either of these teams out (although my pick of Denver a number of weeks ago against New England was widely scorned - even though correct), so I am just taking the home team.

Pittsburgh Steelers -7 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow has at least made Cincinnati's offense exciting, but this game does not bode well for the Bengals.  Pittsburgh has the 7th best total defense, 5th best pass defense, 9th best rush defense and 4th best scoring defense.  AND, Ben Roethlisberger can play despite being exposed to Vance McDonald, who was diagnosed with Covid-19.

Los Angeles Rams -2 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Russel Wilson hs led Seattle to the number 1 socring offense, passing offense and total offense, which they need desperately because their defense is 30th in scoring defense, and dead last in passing defense and total defense.  I feel that Sean McVay with his multi-formation, multi-movement, elusive offense could take advantage of the Seahawks defense to win this game.

New Orleans Saints -9 v. San Francisco 49ers

I know that the NFL changes week-to-week, and not to read too much into any given game or week, but last week's thrashings (by New Orleans of Tampa Bay and of San Francisco by Green Bay) are incredibly hard to ignore.  Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders being back is huge for the Saints.

Baltimore Ravens -7 at New England Patriots

The number 1 rushing offense in the NFL at just over 170 yards per game, against a New England defense that is 25th in the NFL in rushing defense.  Plus, New England is on a short week.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Minnesota Vikings

Yes, I know this looks like a homer pick, but it really isn't.  It is just the law of averages.  Dalvin Cook cannot have games like the last two weeks, and he has to come back to earth at some point, why not on Monday night?

Bye Week - Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets

Big Bet

Cleveland Browns -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Nick Chubb is activated just in time to face the NFL's worst run defense.  I expect Chubb to make up for lost time.

Houston's defense is just not very good, and the offense is lackluster.  I wonder if DeShaun Watson wishes he had DeAndre Hopkins back?  Yes, that was rhetorical.  My other thoughs were New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  71-58-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1440

Picks of the Week

 

Well, after six consecutive winning weeks, I got annihilated last week.  Frankly, I am glad that it happened because I was just waiting for it to happen.  The real kicker, though, is that I lost my first Big Bet of the season.  Ouch.  Now that it is over with, hopefully I can get back to my winning ways.  As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

San Francisco 49ers +7 v. Green Bay Packers

I was OK with this since San Francisco was a home team on a short week, but honestly, I didn't realize Aaron Jones was returning for the Packers.  That was a big mistake.

Tennessee Titans -6 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

The biggest problem with the Bears is their offensive line, and they lose another starter (their third), this time it's Cody Whitehair to Covid-19.  Not good, especially since they have their immobile starter in Nick Foles.

 

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Denver Broncos

The NFL's second ranked passing offense (and 6th overall), gets to host Denver, who has been playing better under Drew Lock, having won 3 of their last 4.  But, Atlanta's passing attack will be too much.

Seattle Seahawks -3 at Buffalo Bills

I am going against the "west coast team travelling east and playing the early game" adage because in the Russell Wilson Era, the Seahawks seem to be immune to this betting rule.

Baltimore Ravens -1 at Indianapolis Colts

This is the proverbial immovable object meets the irresistable force as the NFL's top-ranked rushing offense (Baltimore) meets the NFL's number one ranked total defense (and 2nd ranked rush defense) in the Colts.  The difference here will be that the Colts' offense has been paltry under Philip Rivers, whereas the Ravens defense is typically stout (2nd in scoring defense).

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 v. Houston Texans

I have no reason for this pick whatsoever.  This is a game that seems like Houston should win, so it seems to easy.

Kansas City Chiefs -10 v. Carolina Panthers

Second in scoring offense, and not even the return of Christian McCaffrey can keep this game close.

Minnesota Vikings -4 v. Detroit Lions

Detroit's rush defense (23rd in the NFL), is not going to be able to handle the whirling dervish that is Dalvin Cook.

Washington Football Team -3 v. New York Giants

Believe this or not, Washington's defense is 4th in total defense and 1st in passing defense.  Offense is not great, but it is still better than the Giants' offense (30th and 31st).  Plus, the Giants are on a short week.  Have I mentioned that I love typing Washington Football Team?!

Las Vegas Raiders -1 at Los Angeles Chargers

Ooooh, I get to pick a road favorite.  I am sooooo daring.

Arizona Cardinals -5 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Everybody loves the first start of Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa last week as the Dolphins beat the Rams 28-17, but let's be serious, the offense struggled in that game.  Tagovailoa was 12/22 for only 93 yards and the leading rusher was Miles Gaskin with 47 yards.  

Pittsburgh Steelers -14 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Big number for a road favorite (counteracting the Raiders 1 point), but the Cowboys have scored 1 offensive touchdown since Dak Prescott went down.  I don't expect them to score too many against Pittsburgh's 6th ranked defense (total, passing, scoring - 5th in rushing defense).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 v. New Orleans Saints

Michael Thomas is back, but will it take a while for him to get back into rhythm.  Tampa Bay is clicking on offense, using everyone.   Even before Michael Thomas went out, New Orlease was slogging through their games, even their wins.  It does scare me that it is a short week for Tampa Bay, but hopefully the fact this is a night game minimizes that.

New England Patriots -9 1/2 at New York Jets

This is not your normal New England Patriots, but it is your normal New York Jets.  They are horrible.  I don't like this spread for a prime time game, especially given New England's 29th ranked scoring offense, but they took the Bills down to the wire in Buffalo last week - losing only due to a late Cam Newton fumble, and Damien Harris is turning into a really good running back.

Bye Week - Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles

Big Bet

Arizona Cardinals -5 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Everybody loves the first start of Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa last week as the Dolphins beat the Rams 28-17, but let's be serious, the offense struggled in that game.  Tagovailoa was 12/22 for only 93 yards and the leading rusher was Miles Gaskin with 47 yards.  

I honestly see Arizona scoring a lot of points.  Yes, Miami has the number-1 ranked scoring defense, but they are 23rd in total defense, 20th in passing defense, and 21st in rushing defense).  So, Miami's defensive ranking is very much an anomaly.

Others that I thought about for this spot, Tennessee over Chicago, Kansas City over Carolina, and Washington over New York Giants.

Last Week's Record:  4-9-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  65-50-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($755)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1885

Picks of the Week

     

Six consecutive winning weeks.  Woo Hoo!!!  I know this streak is going to end, I am just going to ride it as long as I can.  As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers -1 1/2 v, Atlanta Falcons

Simply because they were the home team.  I couldn't get  a real read on this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers +4 at Baltimore Ravens

In this battle, I am taking the points.  I wish I did this earlier as the spread was 6 at the beginning of the week.   A battle of two very similar teams that know each other well.

 

Indianapolis Colts -3 at Detroit Lions

To below average offenses (Indy 23rd/Detroit 21st), but the Colts defense is much, much toughter (1st in total defense, 2nd in passing defense, 3rd in rushing defense, and 4th in scoring defense).

Green Bay Packers -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Yes this would seem like a big spread for an intradivisional rivalry, except Green Bay is 2nd in scoring offense and going against Minnesota's 3oth rank scoring defense.  This should be a rout.

Buffalo Bills -4 1/2 v. New England Patriots

Nothing would surprise me with Bill Belichick, but this is not his year.  I expect Buffalo to score a bunch against New England.

Tennessee Titans -7 at Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals can move the ball through the air (12th in the league), but by every other metric they are not good.  At least Joe Burrow is proving worthy of the #1 pick.

Cleveland Browns -1 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Cleveland can run the ball extremely well (3rd in the league), and the Raiders (16th in the league) are mediocre at stopping the run.  Plus, we have a west coast team travelling east and playing the early game - although they do get an extra hour of rest due to the ending of Daylight Savings Time.

Kansas City Chiefs -19 1/2 v. New York Jets

This spread is utterly ridiculous.  Just ludicrous.  And I am just crazy enough to take it and give almost 3 touchdowns.  Frankly, it is because it makes this game more exciting to watch, and it is the only way to make this game exciting.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE THIS PICK.  Rookie quarterback making his first start against a team that is clearly playing well, especially on defense.  But, the Rams are coming off a short week and traveling east and playing the early game.  Who am I to go against the gambling Gods.  Did I mention that I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE THIS PICK?  But, the Tuanigamanuolepola era begins!!!

Chicago Bears +4 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Competing gambling rules here, don't pick too many road favorites versus Chicago on a short week.  I feel that since New Orleans' defense is nowhere near as dynamic as the LA Rams' defense was, that Chicago's offense might gain enough ground to keep this close.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Denver Broncos

In a battle of 2-4 teams, only the Chargers have looked better under Herbert.  And honestly, this spread and pick is another reason why I picked the Bears earlier, too many road favorites, but since Denver is only averaging under 20 points a game, I feel like the Chargers could score enough to win 27-17.

San Francisco 49ers +2 at Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco has struggled through a number of injuries, but still have the 9th total offense, and 8th rushing offense, along with a tremendous defense (3rd in passing defense, 4th in total defense, 5th in scoring defense, and 9th in rushing defense), they should have enough to take advantage of Seattle's horrendous defense.

Dallas Cowboys +10 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Horrible spread for a horrible game.  The DiNucci Era begins!!!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -12 1/2 at New York Giants

Tampa is averaging over 31 points a game, and the Giants only average 17.  And, honestly, if I am taking Kansas City giving up 19 1/2 points, I should take Tom Brady giving up less than two touchdowns.  And really, the story of Tampa Bay has been the emergence of Ronald Jones.  He is really showing why the Buccaneers were sold on him in the first place.

Bye Week - Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Football Team (Oh My God do I LOVE typing that)

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Yes this would seem like a big spread for an intradivisional rivalry, except Green Bay is 2nd in scoring offense and going against Minnesota's 30th ranked scoring defense.  This should be a rout.

The Aaron Rodgers revenge tour continues - even with Aaron Jones injured (who was having a phenomenal season), and I wanted to pick for my Big Bet a home team.  My other thoughts were Buffalo over New England, and Tennessee over Cincinnati.

Last Week's Record:  7-6-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  61-41-3
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $190
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $2640

Picks of the Week

     

So, I don't care about jinxing myself at this point, as a losing week is inevitable, but last week was my fifth consecutive winning week.  Sure, the picks were at .500, but with the big bet, I finished on the plus side again.  As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New York Giants +5 at Philadelphia Eagles

This goes against the gambling rules, but Zach Ertz was hurt, as was Miles Sanders, and the offensive line is horrible.  I know the Giants are not good, but they are not 5 points worse than Philadelphia.

Tennessee Titans -1 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I have no idea what to do here, so I am just taking the home team since it is virtually a pick 'em.

Atlanta Falcons -2 v. Detroit Lions

Both teams are horrible on defense, but the Falcons do have the 4th best total offense, and they don't look as bad as Detroit does.

Cleveland Browns -3 at Cincinnati Bengals

Road intra-divisional favorites are always a tough bet, but Cincinnati, despite a promising future with Joe Burrow, still lack a lot of talent, especially on the defense.  Cincinnati's 27th ranked rush defense now has to compete with Cleveland's top-ranked rushing offense, which hasn't missed a beat despite losing starter Nick Chubb to injury.

Carolina Panthers +7 at New Orleans Saints

New Orleans just hasn't looked entirely right this season, and now they will be without starting wide receivers Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.  Alvin Kamara has a ton of talent, but cannot do absolutely everything.

New York Jets +10 v. Buffalo Bills

I hate doing this, but I feel compelled to do so since Buffalo is on a short week.  Perhaps the Jets score a late touchdown to lose, but cover 30-21.

Washington Football Team +1 v. Dallas Cowboys

Dallas is completely discombobulated without Dak Prescott.  The offense is in such trouble, that even Zeke Elliott fumbled the ball twice last week.  Plus, they are on a short week.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Houston Texans

Houston played very well is last week's overtime loss to the Titans, but the Packers are on a whole different level.  Green Bay will be angry coming off a loss, and the 26th ranked scoring defense is the perfect opportunity for Aaron Rodgers and company to rebound.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Even if the Raiders are allowed to start the 4 offensive lineman that were just activated from the Covid Reserve list (pending negative tests today), none of them have practiced all week.  Not good when facing the defense ranked 2nd in total defense, 6th in passing defense and 1st in rushing defense.

New England Patriots -2 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

This is literally just a gut reaction.  Probably because I think Belichick will bounce back after last week's atrocity that was an 18-12 home loss to Denver.

Denver Broncos + 7 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Only because Kansas City is on a short week, and perhaps because Denver has some confidence after winning at New England last week.

Los Angeles Chargers -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Probably a good game to miss.

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Seattle needs to shore up the defense if they want to make a serious Super Bowl run, but for now, the 4th ranked passing offense and 5th overall offense, should be enough to remaing undefeated, and cover the spread against a Cardinals team that played on Monday night.

Chicago Bears +6 at Los Angeles Rams

The Chicago Bears will likely lose this game as with James Daniels injured, Aaron Donald will likely have 142 sacks.  But, the Bears defense will likely keep this game close.

 

Bye Week - Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Houston Texans

Houston played very well is last week's overtime loss to the Titans, but the Packers are on a whole different level.  Green Bay will be angry coming off a loss, and the 26th ranked scoring defense is the perfect opportunity for Aaron Rodgers and company to rebound.

I hate taking a road favorite as my Big Bet, but the 3 lines that jumped off the board at me all were road favorites (which scares me in general).  I will select this one because I believe in Aaron Rodgers more than Baker Mayfield, and because Seattle is in a Sunday night prime-time game (where weird things often happen).

Last Week's Record:  7-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  54-35-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $80
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $2450

Picks of the Week

    

So, I don't want to jinx myself, but four winning weeks in a row, and last week was PHENOMENAL!!! I mean it, so I will say it again, PHENOMENAL!!!  That means I have to come back to the mean at some point, right?  I hope I can keep this up.  I know a couple of teams have closed their training sites due to Covid, but at this point no games have been canceled/postponed.  Since I am doing this on Saturday, any Sunday cancellations will not be scored.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears + 1 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

How are the Bears not favored?  Carolina has the 25th ranked rushing defense, so David Montgomery should hasve a field day.

Cincinnati Bengals +8 at  Indianapolis Colts

If this was 6 1/2, I would take the Colts.  They win by a touchdown.  A late TD from Joe Burrow makes the final close (backdoor cover).

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. Detroit Lions

In a battle of two bad teams, I will take points for the home team.

Minnesota Vikings -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Neither team is performnig up to expectations, but Atlanta has the 31st ranked total defense and Minnesota - hehind Dalvin Cook - has the the best rushing offense.

New York Giants -3 v. Washington Football Team

God, I still love typing "Football Team" instead of "Racists".  Giants win this one because despite being horrible, they have the 8th best total offense and 10th best passing offense.  

Baltimore Ravens -9 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Not only are the Eagles horrible, but the Ravens have the 3rd best rusing offense and the 5th best rushing defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Yes the Browns are 4-1, but the Steelers have the 6th best scoring defense, 4th best passing defense, 3rd best total defense, and 2nd best rusing defense.

Tennessee Titans -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans

At some point people are going to realize tht last year for Tennessee wasn't a fluke, and that Ryan Tannehill can ball.  I am leery of this one because of the short week.

Denver Broncos +9 at New England Patriots

This spread is just too high, especially given that Drew Lock is supposed to play this week.

Miami Dolphins -9 v. New York Jets

The Jets are horrible, but are they 9 points worse than the 2-3 Dolphins?  Yes, they are.

Green Bay Packers -1 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I have said it about 4 times already this year, Aaron Rodgers is on a mission.

Los Angeles Rams -3 at San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco seems a bit lost right now, and the Rams are both 4th in total offense and total defense.

Buffalo Bills +4 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City seems a bit off the last few weeks, and Buffalo getting points? .. .I'll take them.

Arizona Cardinals -1 at Dallas Cowboys

Tough to guess how Dallas will bounce back from Dak Prescott's injury.  My guess is they will not.

Bye Week - Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks

Big Bet

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Yes the Browns are 4-1, but the Steelers have the 6th best scoring defense, 4th best passing defense, 3rd best total defense, and 2nd best rusing defense.

I wanted to take Tennesee, but they are on a short week, so I will take Pittsburgh's defense.

Last Week's Record:  12-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  47-28-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $1130
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $2370

Picks of the Week

   

So I say this not to jinx myself, but just to post information - three winning weeks in a row.  I hope I can keep this up.  No time for a lot of analysis this week, as I am travelling and pressed for time, but I do want to get these out.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears + 3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Short week, home team!

Carolina Panthers +1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Short week for Atlanta.

Baltimore Ravens -12 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

I know it looks like too many points, but Cincinnati cannot stop anybody.

Houston Texans -6 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars have been disappointing versus the spread since week 2.

Las Vegas Raiders +12 at Kansas City Chiefs

I cannot give up 12 points in two games this week, and Chiefs are on a short week.

Arizona Cardinals -7 at New York Jets

I hate going against the betting rules, but Arizona isn't really west coast.

Pittsburgh Steelers -7 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles are bad.

Washington Football Team +7 v. Los Angelse Rams

I cannot pick two west coast going east, and perhaps Kyle Allen can spark something in Washington.

Miami Dolphins +8 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Garropolo might be back, but could be rusty.  San Fran missing too much talent.  Win by 7.

Cleveland Browns +1 v. Indianapolis Colts

Basically a pick 'em on the board, and in my head.  I could have gone either way.

New York Giants +8 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Both awful teams, and no the Cowboys have lost one of their best players - Tyron Smith - for the season.

Seattle Seahawks -7 v. Minnesota Vikings

Seattle is just playing too well.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (No Line)

If this is single digits I am taking New England.  If not, I will check back and choose when a line is up.

Los Angeles Chargers +8 1/2 at New Orlenas Saints

This is a really big spread for how poorly New Orleans has looked this year.

Bye Week - Detroit Lions/Green Bay Packers

Big Bet

Pittsburgh Steelers -7 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles are bad.

Because Pittsburgh is coming off its Covid-induced bye (because of Tennessee, not Pittsburgh) and because of its defense (1st in rushing defense, 2nd in total defense, 5th in scoring defense, and 6th in passing defense).

Last Week's Record:  8-6-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  35-26-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $290
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1240