The season is getting tougher and tougher now as the casino actuaries have a much better feel on all of the teams so the lines are ridiculously tough. Let's see if we can't motor through a winning week before the always tough Thanksgiving week.
As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Arizona Cardinals
I hated this line and I hated this pick. Problem is, I would have hated it the other way also. I will take that win.
Tennessee Titans +6 at Baltimore Ravens
Remember just recently when people were touting Tennessee as the best team in the NFL. That was before losing 3 of 4, and that 1 win being against the Chicago Bears. But, they are still tough and their losses have generally been close (except for punter problems against Indianapolis.) I am not saying they win this game, but it should be close. A tough, tough game for both teams.
Detroit Lions -1 at Carolina Panthers
This doesn't really count as picking a road favorite, but with Teddy Two Gloves possible still not even playing, I have to take Detroit. Carolina has played some tough, close games without Christian McCaffrey, but without him and Bridgewater? Probably too much. And, I stand by this pick even if Bridgewater plays, because he is hurt more than Matthew Stafford.
Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia has the 26th ranked rush defense, and Nick Chubb ran for 126 yards on only 19 carries in his return from injury last week. Kareem Hunt added 104 yards on 19 carries. This game could get ugly.
New England Patriots -2 at Houston Texans
This Patriots team is still a shadow of its former self, but it competes and it has Belichick. This Texans team is in complete disarray, ranking 19th in total offense, 25th in scoring offense, 31st (next to last) in total defense and 26th in scoring defense. Bottom line, who do you trust in this game? Oh yeah, and Sony Michel is back for the Patriots.
Jacksonville Jaguars + 10 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh could honestly win this by 30. But, they did play Green Bay close, and they are at home, so I will almost always take double digits.
Atlanta Falcons +3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
Football-wise, the Falcons have the second-most explosive passing offense (with Calvin Ridley returning to the lineup), and the Saints are in the middle of pass defense rankings (15th). In reality, Taysom Hill brings a lot to the table, but not as an every down quarterback. I think the Saints might turn to Jameis Winston at some point in this game, and if so, they are going to regret not giving him the first team snaps this week.
Washington Football Team -1 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow is having a remarkable rookie campaign, but the Football Team has the number 1 ranked passing defense in the entire NFL, holding opponents to an average of 194 yards. That and the incredible story that is Alex Smith (coming soon on an ESPN 30 for 30 AND Disney+ movie near you). (Well, not technically yet, but it is bound to happen, right?)
Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 at Denver Broncos
This, in an ordinary year, would be an easy pick for me - and I would take Denver. Denver is at home in the mile high air, has an adequate defense, and has shocked the likes of New England at home this season. But, Denver doesn't yet know if Drew Lock or Brett Rypien is quarterbacking today, and Miami has been on a run since Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa has started (even though his play has been OK to good, not great), and this team is playing inspired football. Give me the Dolphins.
Los Angeles Chargers -9 1/2 v. New York Jets
Although 0-9, the Jets have played some close, tough games ... AT HOME. Unfortunately, this game is on the road, where the Jets have lost by 10, 29, 24 and 26. That and the Chargers have risen to 7th in the NFL in passing offense, (3rd since Justin Herbert took over), and the Jets are 29th in pass defense. The fact that this is a 13 point spread astounds me.
Green Bay Packers +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis has played remarkable at times, and no more impressive than last week's 34-17 defeat of Tennessee on the road. But, Ryan Tannehill, for all he has accomplished in Nashville, is not Aaron Rodgers. And, more importantly JK Scott is much better at punting than the revolving door at the Titans team facility. Plus, Aaron Rodgers gets Allen Lazard back as well. And, I get points!!! I'll take them.
Dallas Cowboys +7 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
Every week has that one game that surprises everybody, right? So I think this one is it, and I will pick against my instincts. Yes the Minnesota Vikings and their running game with Dalvin Cook has been amazing. But, the Chicago Bears showed a blue print that can keep Cook in check. However, the Cowboys' defense is certainly NOT the Bears' defense. Deciding factors? Minnesota is on a short week having played Monday night, and the Cowboys played the Pittsburgh Steelers incredibly tough.
Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Las Vegas Raiders
Yes, 7 points is a big number for a road favorite in an intradivisional game, especially when the home underdog already defeated the road favorite earlier this year. But, that should be an incentive for the road favorite, especially when the Raiders' defense - well, team really - is ravaged by Covid. At the beginning of the week 8 of 11 defensive starters were on the Covid list. Who knows how many will be ready to play?
Los Angeles Rams +4 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I honestly am not sure which way to pick this game, but the Rams' performace last week against Seattle was great. I will take the points here, since in my mind this shoul dbe a 2 1/2 to 3 points spread.
Bye Week - Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers
Big Bet
New England Patriots -2 at Houston Texans
This Patriots team is still a shadow of its former self, but it competes and it has Belichick. This Texans team is in complete disarray, ranking 19th in total offense, 25th in scoring offense, 31st (next to last) in total defense and 26th in scoring defense. Bottom line, who do you trust in this game? Oh yeah, and Sony Michel is back for the Patriots.
OK - so I hate picking road teams as my big bet, but my first choice was originally the Browns over Philadelphia. But, they burnt me last week as my Big Bet, so I am not picking them twice in a row. My other choices were Miami over Denver and Green Bay over Indianapolis, and they were both road teams as well, and Indianapolis has a phenomenal defense. So, Belichick it is.
Last Week's Record: 7-7
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1Year-to-Date Record: 78-65-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 7-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($235)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1205
No comments:
Post a Comment