Always hard to pick the last week of the season, when you are unsure who is actually going to play an entire game (looking at you Aaron Rodgers), but given how the season started, a pretty strong finish overall (thank you weeks 15 and 16)! Now it's the wildcard round, and I wll pick the games - using the spread and the money line - and the over/under. Here we go ...
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs). I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Cincinnati Bengals -5 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders
I really wanted to pick the Raiders here, but then I remembered they will be travelling on a short week, and the loss of defensive tackle Darius Philon might open some things up for Joe Mixon, giving Joe Burrow the opportunity for some play-action passes, and not just heaving it to J'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
Cincinnati Bengals -$240 v. Las Vegas Raiders (Bet $240 to Win $100)
As much as I wanted to select the Raiders with the spread, I always thought the Bengals were going to win outright.
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals Over 48
Neither team is great getting off the field on 3rd down, and the Raiders are 26th in the league in points allowed.
Buffalo Bills -4 v. New England Patriots
The Bills are just better. New England's victory over Buffalo this year came in a weird windstorm that resulted in New England passing 3 times the entire game. In the week 16 rematch, the Bills won 33-21 in New England. Plus New England is away on a short week.
Buffalo Bills -$210 v. New England Patriots (Bet $210 to Win $100)
Obviously if I am going to give points, I am goint to think the favorite will win outright.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills OVER 43
It is going to be COLD tonight, but hardly any wind and no precipitation. Bills score 30+ themselves.
Philadelphia Eagles +8 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Philadelphia is 7-3 in their last 10 games, including last week's loss where they started nobody. This game is going to be wierd as a cold front should be going through Tampa during the game. Temperatures in the 60s isn't exactly cold, but alomst 20 mph winds and basically 100% chance of rain, will affect this game. The Eagles have been running the ball extremely well and finished best in the league. Tampa Bay was 26th in rushing, but playoff Lenny will be back. Except, now Playoff Lenny is out, as is Ronald Jones II. At least Giovanni Bernard is fresh.
Philadelphia Eagles + $320 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bet $100 to win $320)
Now, I don't actually think Philadelphia is going to win, but I also don't want to take the -$400 money line on Tampa. If the Eagles cover the spread, then these two bets are basically a wash, which I could live with. But, given the likely weather, this is a upset upon which I am willing to take a chance.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 46
The weather.
Dallas Cowboys -3 v. San Francisco 49ers
This is the game that I don't want to touch, but for both of my fans out there, I will. So, this is just a guess on a whim, but I feel like the comeback last week by the 49ers to secure the playoff spot might just have been too much for them to be ready this week, especially facing the number 1 offense in the NFL (total and scoring). Although San Francisco's defense has been stellar (5th overall, 6th passing defense, 7th rushing defense, T9th in scoring defense), they just might have used up everything they had last week. Again, just a hunch.
Dallas Cowboys -$160 v. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $160 to win $100)
I would have been more enticed by the money line for San Francisco if I could have gotten more than just +$140. Dallas to win.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboy OVER 49 1/2
Could be a 31-24 type game.
Kansas City Chiefs -11 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers shouldn't even be in the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs -$700 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $700 to win $100)
Even with Pittsburgh sitting at a nice +$540 doesn't entice me to pick THIS underdog.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 45 1/2
Kansas City may do this on their own.
Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is better than the Los Angeles in almost every statistic - 6th in total offense (to 9th), 11th in scoring offense (to 17th), 10th in total defense (to 17th), and T9th in scoring defense (to T15th). But, the Rams beat the Cardinals in Week 13 at home 30-23 (although Kyler Murray threw for 383). It will be hard for Arizona to replicate those offensive numbers without DeAndre Hopkins, and LA has Aaron Darnold, who might be the best player in the entire NFL. Hopefully the Rams learned from the second half of San Francico that they have to play 100% for 100% of the game.
Los Angeles Rams -$190 v. Arizona Cardinals (Bet $190 to win $100)
This game is a potential NFC championship game if DeAndre Hopkins was playing.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams OVER 49
I sure am excited about seeing a potential Monday night shootout!
Big Bet:
Kansas City Chiefs -$700 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $700 to win $100)
Even with Pittsburgh sitting at a nice +$540 doesn't entice me to pick THIS underdog.
Easiest bet on the board in a long - long time.
Last Week's Record: 7-9
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0Year-to-Date Record: 143-129
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($140)
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($140)
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($340)
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