Pretty good wild-card weekend picks-wise, as most of the games stunk. I'll take that over picks being bad but having amazing games. Let's see if I can continue this through the divisional round.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs). I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Tennessee Titans -4 v. Cincinnati Bengals
A few things concern me with this pick. First, this line opened at 2 1/2, and has jumped up to 4. That means big money has come in on Tennessee, and you never want to be on the same side as the majority of the bettors in most occasions. Second, Tennessee's defense, although 5th in scoring defense, was 25th against the pass. So, I highly expect Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to make some big plays down the field. But, Cincinnati's offensive line is atrocious and the Titans are 10th in sacks. I expect Joe Burrow to be hit, a lot. And, Derrick Henry returns. Plus, he is fresh. Tennessee wins.
Tennessee Titans -$200 v. Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)
Much like the point spread, but money has poured in for Tennessee as the money line opened at -$145. But, once again Derrick Henry is back. Plus, Ryan Tannehill is way better than he is credited, meaning he and A.J. Brown could make some plays against Cincinnati's 26th ranked pass defense.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans Over 47 1/2
With two bad pass defenses, some big plays are there to be made.
San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Two pretty stingy defenses, with San Francisco's just a bit better than Green Bay's on the season (5th overall to 11th overall; 9th in scoring defense compared to 13th). This game has all the makings of being a close game, much like their week 3 30-28 battle. This game is likely to turn on a turnover (I'm looking at you Jimmy Garoppolo!)
Green Bay Packers -$235 v. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $235 to win $100)
Aaron Rodgers continues his F You tour by leading his Packers to a hard-fought win against the 49ers. The week off gets everyone healthy and rested, and we end up with a Packers versus Buccaneers/Rams NFC championship. A San Fran win would be disappointing to all but San Fran fans. Plus, San Francisco is on a short week.
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers OVER 47 1/2
Their week 3 battle ended 30-28. I expect a similar score this week as Deebo Samuel and Davante Adams both make some big plays.
Los Angeles Rams +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The NFL did Los Angeles no favors by making them play on Monday night, thus creating two teams this round that are playing on a short week. Good thing for the Rams the Cardinals game was not particularly tough. Tampa received some good news as offensive linemen Tristen Wirfs and Ryan Jensen will both be playing, however, they are not 100% after suffering injuries last week. And, with Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd rushing the passer, those two injuries will likely play a major role in this game.
Los Angeles Rams +$130 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bet $100 to win $130)
Cam Akers and Sony Michel offer just enough of a running game to allow Matthew Stafford to make some plays downfield and lead the Rams to the Conference Championship.
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 47 1/2
I love that all 3 of the O/Us are 47 1/2 right now. Making all over bets makes it super easy for me to remember my choices!
Kansas City Chiefs -1 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
This should be a phenomenal game. Buffalo enters the game with the best defense in the NFL statistically (1st in total defense, 1st in scoring defense, 1st in 3rd down percentage defense, 1st in passing defense and 13th in rushing defense). But, Buffalo lost cornerback Tre'Davious White to a knee injury in late November, and it is going to be hard to guard the Chiefs' speed on the outside in Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman without White.
Kansas City Chiefs -$125 v. Buffalo Bills (Bet $125 to win $100)
Buffalo has a great chance to win this game. I only took the Chiefs in the point spread bet because the spread is so low. But, the money line isn't of any value for me to take Buffalo (+$110), if I think that Kansas City is actually going to win, so rather than canceling out my two bets, it is all-or-nothing on Kansas City.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54
Maybe a 38-31 type of a game.
Big Bet:
Tennessee Titans -$200 v. Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)
Much like the point spread, but money has poured in for Tennessee as the money line opened at -$145. But, once again Derrick Henry is back. Plus, Ryan Tannehill is way better than he is credited, meaning he and A.J. Brown could make some plays against Cincinnati's 26th ranked pass defense.
Tennessee finished as the number 1 seed in the AFC even without Derrick Henry for a number of games. This looks like the one favorite that is least likely to lose.
Last Week's Record: 10-7-1
Playoff Record: 10-7-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0Playoff Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 153-136-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $334
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $334
Playoff's Winnings (Losses): $334
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($6)
No comments:
Post a Comment