Picks of the Week - Divisional Round

Solid start to the playoffs, finishing in the black.  A couple of low-scoring games kept me from being waaaaay up, but that is the nature of betting.  Let's see if I can capitalize on a good playoff start as we head into divisional weekend!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans +9 at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is the overwhelming favorite, and I believe they will win this game.  But, 9 points is a lot for this stage of the playoffs, especially given how close Kansas City's games have been this year.  Plus, Houston's defense is tough (6th against the pass; 11th against the rush, 7th in total defense), and Will Anderson, Jr. is on a heater right now.  And with Danielle Hunter's win percentage on the other side of the defensive line being the highest in the NFL, this game is going to be close.

Kansas City Chiefs -455 v. Houston Texans (Bet $455 to win $100)

I learned a long time ago not to bet against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs.  Even if this game is going to be close, I still feel strongly that Kansas City advances to the Conference Championship weekend; especially if Joe Mixon does not play for Houston (he is questionable).  Plus, Andy Reid is not going to lose coming off a bye week.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 41 1/2

Have to take the over in the lowest O/U number of the weekend.  Plus, the defenses average giving up over 41 total on the season, so I will take it.

Detroit Lions -8 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have had a helluva run this year, and finished as the 5th highest-scoring team in the NFL, but Detroit has been otherwordly on offense, averaging over 33, and their defense is 7th in points allowed.  With an extra week to rest up, and with David Montgomery returning, Detroit should cruise.

Detroit Lions -455 v. Washington Commanders (Bet $455 to win $100)

I already mentioned I think that Detroit is going to cruise, so I have to pick them with the money line, right?  Here is another reason why, Detroit is 5th against the run on defense, which could stifle Washington's 3rd-ranked rush offense, or at least limit it to less yard than they are used to gaining.  And oh yeah, Washington is on a short week.

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions UNDER 55 1/2

The contrapositive of the earlier over/under bet.  If you can't bet the under on the highest number, when can you?

Los Angeles Rams +6 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia's offense just hasn't looked right lately, even with Saquon doing his thing.  Jalen Hurts only threw for 131 yards last week in his first game back from injury for a team that is only 29th in the NFL in passing.  The Rams could focus on Saquon and try to limit his yards, as much as any time can.  On the other side, even a great pass defense like the Eagles are going to have problems with Puka Nacua, especially in inclement weather.

Los Angeles Rams +240 at Philadelphia Eagles (Bet $100 to win $240)

Some upset has to occur, right?  If so, I think it is this one, as the Rams have been a completely different team since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned in Week 7, going 9-3 (including last week's win) since.  And yes this includes a 37-20 loss to the Eagles in Week 12, and I am willing to bet that Saquon doesn't have another 255 yard game along with A.J. Brown going for over 100 as well.   What scares me?  The Rams are playing on a short week, having played the Monday night game last week.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 42 1/2

I thought for sure that I was going to pick the under hear, with sub-freezing temperatures expected, but inclement weather often produces turnovers in plus-territory, meaning two or three extra scoring possessions.

Baltimore Ravens -1 at Buffalo Bills

If a road favorite is only favored by 1, are they truly a road favorite?  Yes the loss of Zay Flowers may hurt, but as I typed last week, the Ravens are scary in two-tight end sets as that increases the big blockers for Derrick Henry, and Isaiah Likely joins Mark Andrews as excellent pass catchers.  Josh Allen has been a force of nature this year, but Lamar is the MVP as far as I am concerned, and Baltimore's number 1 rushing defense will make Allen's arm try to beat them, in inclement weather.

Baltimore Ravens -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)

So, I really could have just bet Buffalo at Even here, which would hedge against my points spread bet, but because of the vig, that would have meant that I just lost $20 with no potential payout, so, the smart thing to do here is just bet on the Ravens for both, and hope for the best.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills OVER 51 1/2

No real reason for picking this over other than I just really want this to be a high scoring game, and I hope this helps manifest the outcome.  But really, both teams average scoring over 30 a game (30.5 for Baltimore and 30.9 for Buffalo), so I don't feel that this is too much of a reach.

Big Bets:

Houston Texans +9 at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is the overwhelming favorite, and I believe they will win this game.  But, 9 points is a lot for this stage of the playoffs, especially given how close Kansas City's games have been this year.  Plus, Houston's defense is tough (6th against the pass; 11th against the rush, 7th in total defense), and Will Anderson, Jr. is on a heater right now.  And with Danielle Hunter's win percentage on the other side of the defensive line being the highest in the NFL, this game is going to be close.

Going to get my big bets early, taking the Texans to cover for all of the reasons mentioned in this post.  Also, this game is going to be tough to watch as I need KC to win, but not by too much.  Fun times.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 41 1/2

Have to take the over in the lowest O/U number of the weekend.  Plus, the defenses average giving up over 41 total on the season, so I will take it.

Hoping that Kansas City coming off a bye week hits 30 on their own.

Record

Last Week's Record:  11-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-1

Year-to-Date Record:  145-135-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 10-10

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $213.50

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($601.50)

Picks of the Week

The divisional round was fantastic for us, which is a good thing because I do not know if I can really figure out the conference championship games.  Of course, we will give it a shot and hope for the best.  Seriously, this is about the best final four matchups for which we could have hoped in terms of quality teams and great matchups.  Going to be a great football day!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

San Francisco 49ers +3 at Philadelphia Eagles

A dynamic matchup between the 6th and 3rd highest scoring offenses, and the 1st and 4th best defenses.  Strength versus strength with Piladelphia being the 5th best rushing offense and San Franciso being the best overall defense, and 2nd best against the run.  Jalen Hurts is the difference here, as Brock Purdy - who has done an admirable job - is still just a rookie.  But, given that, I still think this game will be close, so I will take the points.  West coast team traveling east, but this game is not being played in the 1:00 time slot, so I will still take the points.

Philadelphia Eagles -155 v. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $155 to win $100)

As stated above, Jalen Hurts is going to be the difference here, and will not make the key mistake(s) that Purdy will.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45

Two of the better defenses in the NFL, and a rookie quarterback make for an interesting under bet.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Another great matchup pitting high-scoring teams (7th and 1st) against each other.  Cincinnati's defense is 5th best in scoring defense, and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are both less than 100%.  Given these facts, and the fact that Joe Burrow just knows how to win, I am going to take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +115 at Kansas City Chiefs

I am going to take a Joe Burrow at 100% with J'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst over a hobbled Patrick Mahomes with Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and a hobbled Travis Kelce.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiegs OVER 48

I expect a shootout!!!

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Another great matchup pitting high-scoring teams (7th and 1st) against each other.  Cincinnati's defense is 5th best in scoring defense, and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are both less than 100%.  Given these facts, and the fact that Joe Burrow just knows how to win, I am going to take the points.

If I expect Cincinnati to win, then the fact that they are getting points must mean I should make this my big bet.

Last Week's Record:  8-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  153-131-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  11-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $620

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $1,084.50

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $1,229.50

Picks of the Week

A wild week 18, with third-string quarterbacks galore.  Some to see what they can do (Sam Howell), some out of necessity (Skylar Thompson), and some just because (every team out of the playoffs).  Coming close to a .500 record for the week secures a winning regular season, that I hope will roll into the playoffs.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

San Francisco 49ers -9 v. Seattle Seahawks

Home team on a short week, but really, probably the best team in the playoffs right now, even with Brock Purdy.  Seattle was a nice story, that ends today.  This game has 31-17 written all over it.

San Francisco 49ers -475 v. Seattle Seahawks (Bet $475 to win $100)

San Francisco's number 1 ranked total defense and scoring defense is what makes the difference.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Listen, I thought the Chargers win this game initially, except losing Mike Williams hurts their offense, a lot.  Sure, several of the receivers stepped up, but the look, feel and speed of the offense is different with Williams out.  Not sure who wins, but this is close enough for the Jaguars to cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars +115 (Bet $100 to win $115)

Not sold on this as an outright win for Jacksonville, as the defense will need to step up, but they are 12th in scoring defense, and somebody like a Rayshawn Jenkins always seems to make a play when needed.

Buffalo Bills -13 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

This isn't the full Dolphins, given that Tuanigamanualepola Tagavailova is still in the consussion protocol.

Buffalo Bills -900 v. Miami Dolphins (Bet $900 to win $100)

Dolphins have the 24th ranked scoring defense in the NFL going against the second-highest scoring team in the league.

Minnesota Vikings -3 v. New York Giants

I feel like both of these teams are fraudulent as Super Bowl contenders, yet they play each other so one has to advance.  They both have one superstar offensive player (Justin Jefferson and Saquon Barkley), but Minnesota has Dalvin Cook as well, and the Giants are 27th in rushing defense.

Minnesota Vikings -155 v. New York Giants (Bet $155 to win $100)

I am not happy about this, but not getting enough on my money (+135) to pick the Giants.  This could be a double loss if the Giants win.

Cincinnati Bengals -8 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

This game just isn't the same without Lamar Jackson.

Cincinnati Bengals -450 v. Baltimore Ravens (Bet $450 to win $100)

Baltimore's defense is 8th overall and 3rd in scoring defense, but 26th against the pass.  Joe Burrow leads the 5th best passing attack in the NFL.

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It seems really trendy to bet on Tampa Bay and Tom Brady, who is 7-0 against Dallas in his career.  But, I don't like trendy bets.

Dallas Cowboys -140 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If I think the Cowboys will cover the spread, then I have to think they will win outright, right?  Tampa's lack of a rushing game (last in the league) will not punish Dallas' 22nd ranked rus defense.

Big Bet:

San Francisco 49ers -475 v. Seattle Seahawks (Bet $475 to win $100)

San Francisco's number 1 ranked total defense and scoring defense is what makes the difference.

Three easy bets this week, San Fran, Cincinnati and Buffalo to win.

Last Week's Record:  7-8-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  137-123-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($30)

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $145

Picks of the Week - Wildcard Round Edition

Always hard to pick the last week of the season, when you are unsure who is actually going to play an entire game (looking at you Aaron Rodgers), but given how the season started, a pretty strong finish overall (thank you weeks 15 and 16)!  Now it's the wildcard round, and I wll pick the games - using the spread and the money line - and the over/under.  Here we go ...

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs).  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals -5 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

I really wanted to pick the Raiders here, but then I remembered they will be travelling on a short week, and the loss of defensive tackle Darius Philon might open some things up for Joe Mixon, giving Joe Burrow the opportunity for some play-action passes, and not just heaving it to J'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

Cincinnati Bengals -$240 v. Las Vegas Raiders (Bet $240 to Win $100)

As much as I wanted to select the Raiders with the spread, I always thought the Bengals were going to win outright.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals Over 48

Neither team is great getting off the field on 3rd down, and the Raiders are 26th in the league in points allowed.

Buffalo Bills -4 v. New England Patriots

The Bills are just better.  New England's victory over Buffalo this year came in a weird windstorm that resulted in New England passing 3 times the entire game.  In the week 16 rematch, the Bills won 33-21 in New England.  Plus New England is away on a short week.

Buffalo Bills -$210 v. New England Patriots (Bet $210 to Win $100)

Obviously if I am going to give points, I am goint to think the favorite will win outright.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills OVER 43

It is going to be COLD tonight, but hardly any wind and no precipitation.  Bills score 30+ themselves.

Philadelphia Eagles +8 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Philadelphia is 7-3 in their last 10 games, including last week's loss where they started nobody.  This game is going to be wierd as a cold front should be going through Tampa during the game.  Temperatures in the 60s isn't exactly cold, but alomst 20 mph winds and basically 100% chance of rain, will affect this game.  The Eagles have been running the ball extremely well and finished best in the league.  Tampa Bay was 26th in rushing, but playoff Lenny will be back.  Except, now Playoff Lenny is out, as is Ronald Jones II.  At least Giovanni Bernard is fresh.

Philadelphia Eagles + $320 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bet $100 to win $320)

Now, I don't actually think Philadelphia is going to win, but I also don't want to take the -$400 money line on Tampa.  If the Eagles cover the spread, then these two bets are basically a wash, which I could live with.  But, given the likely weather, this is a upset upon which I am willing to take a chance.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 46

The weather.

Dallas Cowboys -3 v. San Francisco 49ers

This is the game that I don't want to touch, but for both of my fans out there, I will.  So, this is just a guess on a whim, but I feel like the comeback last week by the 49ers to secure the playoff spot might just have been too much for them to be ready this week, especially facing the number 1 offense in the NFL (total and scoring).  Although San Francisco's defense has been stellar (5th overall, 6th passing defense, 7th rushing defense, T9th in scoring defense), they just might have used up everything they had last week.  Again, just a hunch.

Dallas Cowboys -$160 v. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $160 to win $100)

I would have been more enticed by the money line for San Francisco if I could have gotten more than just +$140.  Dallas to win.

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboy OVER 49 1/2

Could be a 31-24 type game.

Kansas City Chiefs -11 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers shouldn't even be in the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs -$700 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $700 to win $100)

Even with Pittsburgh sitting at a nice +$540 doesn't entice me to pick THIS underdog.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 45 1/2

Kansas City may do this on their own.

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona is better than the Los Angeles in almost every statistic - 6th in total offense (to 9th), 11th in scoring offense (to 17th), 10th in total defense (to 17th), and T9th in scoring defense (to T15th).  But, the Rams beat the Cardinals in Week 13 at home 30-23 (although Kyler Murray threw for 383).  It will be hard for Arizona to replicate those offensive numbers without DeAndre Hopkins, and LA has Aaron Darnold, who might be the best player in the entire NFL.  Hopefully the Rams learned from the second half of San Francico that they have to play 100% for 100% of the game.

Los Angeles Rams -$190 v. Arizona Cardinals (Bet $190 to win $100)

This game is a potential NFC championship game if DeAndre Hopkins was playing.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams OVER 49

I sure am excited about seeing a potential Monday night shootout!

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs -$700 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $700 to win $100)

Even with Pittsburgh sitting at a nice +$540 doesn't entice me to pick THIS underdog.

Easiest bet on the board in a long - long time.

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  143-129

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($140)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($340) 

Picks of the Week

OK - so I got hammered to end the season, but I don't care because the playoffs are here.  Actually, I do care, but it is my own fault for rushing through the picks in about 10-15 minutes of time.  The playoffs is where I make my money (hopefully), and I am much more prepared for this.

The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under.  This allows 12 picks for the weekend.  I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100.  Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts +2 at Houston Texans
In what is listed as the closest game this weekend, I will take the road underdog Indianapolis Colts.  Both of these teams are amazing stories to have even made the playoffs.  Indianapolis started 1-5, including a week 4 loss to the Texans 37-34 in Indianapolis.  Houston started 0-3 before running off a 9 game winning streak commencing with that week 4 victory over Indianapolis, which subsequently ended the streak in week 14 in Houston.  These games are close, so I will take the points.

Indianapolis Colts +110 (Bet $100 to win $110) at Houston Texans
So both teams won one game each against the other by 3 points, but the week 4 win by the Texans was mostly due to a completely boneheaded decision by the Colts coaching staff.  I will take Indianapolis because (1) I think they are going to win; and (2) less of a bet, even though the money line is close.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans OVER 48.
In the lowest scoring of the two games between these two teams, they went 24-21 (45 points).  I think the offenses make enough plays to get this to the over, and even if the defense makes a great play with a turnover, they might score themselves or set up an easy score.

Seattle Seahawks +2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
This is basically in Russell Wilson we trust, and certainly more than we trust Dak Precott.  While Prescott can lean on Ezekial Elliott, Chris Carson is on slouch, averaging almost as many yards per carry as Elliott (4.66 to 4.72) and with more TDs (9 to 6).  If Dallas wins, it is going to need a bigger game from Amari Cooper than Seattle gets from its receivers, but again, I trust Russell to get the ball to his receivers in better spots.

Seattle Seahawks +125 (Bet $100 to win $125) at Dallas Cowboys
For many of the reasons that I listed in the previous bet, I think Seattle is going to win this one outright.  Seattle is first in rushing in the NFL and 11th in scoring defense, and they get off the field well, as they are 5th in third down percentage defense.  Dallas is 5th in rushing defense, but only 16th in scoring defense and 27th in third down percentage defense.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys OVER 43 1/2.
A final score of 24-20 hits the over.  I can picture that type of score here.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
This game is a tough pick because almost everything I have seen this year tells me the Chargers are better, even Baltimore's 22-10 victory over the Chargers.  But, one of my standard rules is do not take a west coast team travelling east playing in the early game, so that, coupled with that earlier victory by the Ravens over the Chargers makes me take the home team here.  Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon could keep the ball away from Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense, thus controlling the game.

Los Angeles Chargers +130 (Bet $100 to win $130) at Baltimore Ravens
Yes, so part of this is hedging my bet, but the Baltimore pick is -145, and I don't feel that confident in a rookie quarterback in his first playoff game, no matter how athletic he is.

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 42
Everything about this game screams defensive struggle, from Baltimore's defense (1st overall, 2nd in scoring defense, third in third down percentage, 4th in rushing defense and 5th in passing defense) to the Chargers defense (9th in total defense, passing defense and rushing defense and 8th in scoring defense) to the previous 22-10 game.  The under it is.

Philadelphia Eagles +6 1/2 at Chicago Bears
So there are a number of reasons for this selection.  First, it would ease my pain from any Bears loss.  Second, even if the Bears do win I can see this being close.  Third, the Eagles just play better with Nick Foles at quarterback.  There, I said it.

Chicago Bears -250 (Bet $250 to win $100) v. Philadelphia Eagles
Despite all of the above being true, this Chicago Bears defense is legitimate.  Pro Bowlers on the inside of the line (Akiem Hicks), rushing from the outside (Khalil Mack), covering on the corner (Kyle Fuller) and at safety (Eddie Jackson), with Mack, Fuller and Jackson as All-Pros (with Tarik Cohen as punt returner).  The defense is 1st in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game, 1st in rushing defense at 80.8 yards per game, 3rd in total defense, 4th in third down defense and 7th in passing defense.  And, despite an inexperienced quarterback in Mitchell Trubisky, the Bears were 9th in scoring in the league.  Philly meanwhile is 14th in total offense (18th in scoring) and 23rd in total defense (but 12th in scoring defense).  The Bears should win this game at home.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears OVER 42 1/12
I am not happy with this pick, but I am going with it as I see the defenses/return teams setting up two easy scores

Big Bet
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans OVER 48.
In the lowest scoring of the two games between these two teams, they went 24-21 (45 points).  I think the offenses make enough plays to get this to the over, and even if the defense makes a great play with a turnover, they might score themselves or set up an easy score.

I was honestly torn between making this my big bet or the Colts + 2 1/2, but I think we will see some points in this game.

Last Week's Record:  6-10
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  124-121-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($665)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($880)

Divisional Roundtable

Both the American League and National League have started their respective divisional series, so it is officially playoff time!  Enough with this stupid one game wildcard stuff.  Real series, where the depth of the pitching staff is tested, rather than hoping your one ace can win a game for you.  We gathered the entire WeMakeItRain staff, plus our friend Tony to discuss our predictions for this round.  Our gathering took place last week, but I am just now getting around to putting our collective thoughts on screen.  Here are the predictions from WeMakeItRain to you ...


Pepster:  OK fellas.  It's playoff baseball time, a glorious time of year to be a sports fan.  Let's jump right into the series.  The marquis series features 100 win teams but since both of the historic rivals Boston and New York play in the same division, one - the Yankees - ended up the Wild Card.  Thus, they travel to Boston to start the series.  This is interesting here because Hopps is a lifelong Sox fan and Tony is a lifelong Yankees fan.  We will go with home-field advantage first, so Hopps?


Hopps:  Red Sox.  Best team in baseball. HARD STOP.


Tony:  Are you kidding me?  Yankees.  They may not have won 108 games, but they are better than the Red Sox, and I will rejoice when Fenway collapses on them.


Hopps:  I have glaucoma, and even I can see that isn't the case.  If we played just our "B" guys - Betts, Benintendi, Bogaerts and Bradley we win.


Tony:  Until we start a fight, and then Judge and Stanton pummel the entire Sox nation.


Pepster:  Woah, woah, woah, guys.  Let's not make this too personal. 


Hopps:  Red Sox/Yankees IS personal.

Tony:  Don't you mean Yankees/Red Sox.


Pepster:  Ok, moving along.  Sinickal?


Sinickal:  F'in Cubs. 


Pepster:  Great analysis there.  I guess that leaves me.  The Sox are thin in starting rotation, and even thinner in the bullpen.  If there "star"ters - Sale and Price - can get into the 7th or 8th innings, the Sox will win.  Only needs to happen twice, as the Sox can win one slugfest as they have bats all up and down the order.  As does New York.    I will go with Boston as 108 wins is 108 wins.  What did Bill Parcells use to say?  "You are what your record says you are".  So - Boston.  Next up - Houston and Cleveland.


Tony:  Indians. After Houston won the World Series last year, Cleveland just wants it more.


Hopps:  That is exactly why I am picking the Astros.  They are defending champs, and they defended their title with quite possibly the quietest 103 win team ever.  They keep rolling. 


Pepster:  I am with  you Hopps.  The pitching is phenomenal and Alex Bregman has joined Altuve, Correa and Springer as a top bat.  Tough to pitch to this lineup.


Sinickal:  (Mumbling) Up four, end up tied for the division.  Lose the play-in, then lose the wildcard.


Pepster:  Huh?


Sinickal:  F'in Cubs.


Pepster:  Speaking of the Cubs, let us turn to the National League where the surprising Milwaukee Brewers won the NL Central to earn the home-field advantage against the Rockies.


Sinickal:  I hate you.


Pepster:  Hopps?


Hopps:  I hate you too!  Ha.  So I am going with Milwaukee.  Just a guess.

Tony:  Leave it to the Sox fan to "take a guess".  Take a stand you idiot.  I am picking Milwaukee because they are a great team and are hungry.


Pepster:  I get the hungry part.  Milwaukee was supposed to be a year away, from being a year away.Then, they go out and pick up Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and likely NL MVP Christian Yelich - man I wish the Marlins could get a player like Yelich.  So, I am taking Milwaukee.  F'in Marlins.


Sinickal:  Are the Marlins even a team?


Pepster:  Fair question.  Last series.  Dodgers hosting Atlanta.  Really good young talent in Acuna and Albies, and another team that is supposed to be a year away from being a year away.  But that Dodgers lineup - Wow.  They have guys on the bench that would be stars, not just starters, on any other club. Plus, they have two Cubans.  Dodgers in a walk.


Tony:  I also am picking the Dodgers; great team and they are hungry.


Hopps:  Are you sure it isn't YOU that is hungry?  Dodgers.  Atlanta still can't win in the post season.


Sinickal:  F'in Cubs.


Pepster:  And there you have it.  Our divisional series round-up.  Be back shortly for the ALCS and NLCS.

End of an Era? Not just yet...

I am fascinated by the results of the five New Year's Day bowl games. Not because your boy Sinickal had EVERYTHING wrong. After all, everyone had most of them wrong. And for those of you claiming that you did have the SEC going winless, Florida State getting blown out, and the Big Ten going 3-1, where were you on New Year's Eve? I don't remember hearing the trash talk before the games at the volume that I am hearing it now. And if you did believe it before you saw it, you were in a very small minority of sports fans. And none of you said anything!

Okay, back to football. What the hell happened yesterday? I am not quite sure yet, but I am going to classify it as more aberration than evolution. Let's discuss this in the form of questions and answers...

1. Is the SEC over rated?

No, I don't believe it is. I still think that the SEC is a formidable conference and either the best or second best in the country. If I were a school in the Big Ten, I would not start scheduling SEC teams for homecoming just yet. I get that five of the top teams in the conference lost in big spots over two days, but lets look as some of the facts regarding the conferences...

According to fbschedules.com, here are the non-conference winning percentages for the power five conferences against power five teams prior to conference play this year.

Big Ten - 31% 
Big 12 - 40% 
ACC - 44% 
SEC - 71%
PAC 12 - 75% 

With regard to the bowl season, the current record for the SEC is 5-5. By comparison, the Big Ten is 5-4, The ACC is 5-6, and the Big 12 is 1-4. The star of the group is the Pac 12 which is currently 5-1.

So, let's not consider the SEC on the same level as the Sun Belt conference just yet. I am pretty sure that the depth of the conference is real and that the top teams will be just fine.

2. Certainly, we can agree that this is the end of the  current SEC run, correct?

Again, I am not sure that I would stretch that far based on a 40 hour snapshot. Over the last decade, the SEC has shown in wins and in talent that this current run of dominance is not a fluke. Again, here are the facts...

The SEC has produced 8 of the last 10 National Champions, including 7 in a row from 2006 to 2012. This is a near impossible run in which 4 different teams from the conference won more than half of the national championships awarded in the BCS era!

Looking at the NFL draft over the last few years gives the following. According to NFL.com, the SEC has had:

• The most players drafted in each of the last 8 years. 49 players were drafted in the most recent NFL draft.
• The most players drafted in the 1st round in each of the last 4 years. In all four years, at least 10 players have gone in the 1st round. By comparison, the only other conference with as many as 8 during that time is the Big 12.
• The number of 1st round picks by conference in the last five drafts are
• SEC - 50
• Big 12 - 27
• ACC - 21
• Big 10 - 18
• Pac 12 - 17
• Big East - 6
• The total number of picks by conference in the last five drafts are
• SEC - 241
• ACC - 169
• Big 12 - 150
• Big 10 - 154
• Pac 12 - 124
• Big East - 73

It is noted that conference realignment would increase the numbers for the Big East schools that moved to the ACC, Big 10 and Big 12. Despite that, it is difficult to reload over and over again with the amount of talent leaving the SEC every year. And it is an obscene amount of talent!

3. Okay, then what does it mean that Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss all lost in a matter of 40 hours?

I am going to concentrate on Alabama and, to a lesser degree LSU here. Specifically, let's look at two things a little more closely here.

First, go back and look at the rosters of Alabama and LSU from their 2011 regular season game. As of the 2014 NFL Draft, 42 players from those two rosters were selected by teams. By the time all of the players from the rosters have completed their colleges runs, it is estimated that 70 could be drafted. Let me repeat that, 70 players drafted from two rosters in one college game in an "over rated" conference! If you want to see the names and some mind blowing stats, check out this cbssports.com link.

Second, based on information from NFL.com, Alabama has been a talent pipeline for the NFL over the last few years. We can agree that Alabama's biggest weakness was in its secondary this year. It simply gave up too many big plays. That is just one glaring problem caused by the amount of talent lost recently. Consider that Alabama has had 9 defensive backs drafted in the last 5 years, with 5 in the 1st round. The Crimson Tide has also gone 5 consecutive years with multiple 1st round draft picks. That has never been done before. By the way, I could have done the same thing with LSU and it would have been as impressive.

I am not going to say that these schools shouldn't be able to reload, I am saying that sometimes it takes a little time to overcome significant loss. Again, I wouldn't start loading up these teams to enhance your non-conference record.

4. Fine, you can admit that the Big Ten is a much better conference than you thought, right?

Hell. And. No.

Ohio State is really good and Urban Meyer is simply a great football coach. Michigan State is consistently the second best team in that conference and a really good football team. The rest of the Big Ten is dog shit and you can have it.

5. How do we know that the SEC was that good over the last decade, since the playoff system clearly exposed Alabama?

I would simply go back and look at the talent produced. It was not an accident that SEC was pounding anyone it faced when it mattered. This year, the playoff format matched the four best teams in the country. No one, and I mean no one argued that Alabama was not one of them. Even those of you who think that the SEC is over rated as a conference thought Alabama belonged in the Final Four teams.

6. Is this the end of SEC dominance?

Let's not treat the last 48 hours with Twitter gloves. The SEC is not going to stop recruiting or simply not try anymore because its top teams lost in bowl games this year. Dominance in college football is most often ended by external means. That is, scandal and sanctions. I don't believe that the entire conference is going to be placed under probation anytime soon. Therefore, you can continue to fear the talent showing up at those schools

7. Is there anything else you want to talk about?

Yes!! In a separate post, we are going to talk about trash talking among fans and fan bases. The trolling that you currently see and hear is not trash talk. It is gloating and post-game posturing. That is different. If you are confident enough in your team to trash talk and tongue wag, then do it right. Damn, I hate people that hide before and during a game then tell you how great they are after the fact!