Two winning weeks in a row - I will take that for sure. Especially as we enter the first really precarious weekend of the NFL season. We have one Covid cancellation (Tennessee-Pittsburgh); one Covid postponement until Monday or Tuesday (New England-Kansas City); one big star testing positive (Cam Newton) and one false positive (with the New Orleans Saints). I will be predicting the KC-NE game, but that bet will not count if not played by Tuesday (this week). Tennessee-Pittsburgh has already been re-scheduled for later in the season, but I will mention it - but not pick it this week.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
I don't care that it is a short week, I will take points from the Jets.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans PPD (Covid-19)
Technically this is being changed into a "Bye Week", but the Titans have had 18 players and staff test positive for Covid-19. We don't yet know which players, but that will affect them next week against Buffalo.
New Orleans Saints -3 at Detroit Lions
We had a scare with the fullback, who was sitting on the team plane next to Alvin Kamara, tested positive for Covid-19, but the follow-up test confirmed the first positive was a false positive - therefore a negative. Anyway, New Orleans is 1-2, and more importantly just hasn't looked like it should, especially offensively without Michael Thomas. That should change today with the Setroie Lions being 28th in total defense and 30th in rushing defense (and 26th in scoring defense).
Carolina Panthers +3 v. Arizona Cardinals
I really, really want to take the Cardinals. But, the gambling rules say take the home team when the visiting team is from the west coast and travels east for the early game. Especially when the visiting west coast team is a favorite. I will ultimately - and begrudgingly - take Carolina and hope Arizona wins 23-21.
Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
I hate, hate this game. Not from a gambling stanpoint but from a football fan standpoint. This game is between two not very good teams - but both very fun to watch. I take it back, I love this game. Minshew and Burrow are going to be throwing the ball all over the place. For that, I will just take the points, and because Jacksonville is inconsistent and they were horrible last week.
Dallas Cowboys -4 v. Cleveland Browns
The Cowboys are remarkably 21st in rushing offense, mostly because they are 1st in passing offense (and total offense). That is mostly because they were beding to the Rams and Seattle in the games they have lost and were way behind in Atlanta and came back to win. They should not have the same problem against Cleveland and can comfortably rush the ball from ahead.
Minnesota Vikings +3 1/2 at Houston Texans
Houston's paltry offense (28th overall; 31st rushing offense; 29th scoring offense) versus Minnesota's anemic defense (30th in total defense and passing defense; 26th in rushing defense; 31st in scoring defense). But, Minnesota does have the 8th best rushing offense and Houston has the league's worst rushing defense allowing 188.3 per game.
Miami Dolphins +5 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
You should all be able to recite the "west coast team traveling east and playing the early game" mantra. However, the one team immune to that is Seattle, who have managed to win, and cover, regularly on the east coast. Then why don't you just pick them Pepe? Because this line seems weird. It seems like a Ryan Fitzpatrick touchdown pass late, late in the game to lose 31-27.
Los Angeles Chargers +7 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This number is just too high. Yes I know LA is a west coast team and this is a 1:00 game. The number is too much. Should have been about 4 or 4 1/2. Chargers have the 6th total offense (6th in rushing and 8th in passing) as well as the 8th total defense (11th in passing and 11th in defense; 4th in scoring defense). Tampa just shouldn't be able to score enough more than Los Angeles to cover this number.
Washington Football Team +14 v. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are much better than the Football Team, and they are probably angry and embarrassed at their performance last week against Kansas City, but they are on a short week and on the road (albeit not very far), so to give up two touchdowns is A LOT. Baltimore wins, but maybe 34-24.
Chicago Bears +3 v. Indianapolis Colts
Let's be honest, this is a crapshoot because we don't know how the Bears' offense is going to react to Nick Foles being under center for the entire game. Also, Tarik Cohen out for the year on a cheap shot (he was hit in the leg while fair catching a punt). I think (hope) they rally around Foles. They will have to do just that going against the #1 defense in the NFL as of right now (1st in total defense, 1st in scoring defense, 1st in passing defense, 3rd in 3rd down conversion defense and 4th in rushing defense). Bears keep it close, even if they fall for their first loss of the season. Please note, this game was moved from the 1:00 time slot to 4:25 due to the postponement of the New England Kansas City game.
Los Angeles Rams -13 v. New York Giants
I do not know why I am so willing to give 13 here, but not 14 in the Baltimore game. It must be because the Rams are home with a prolific offense (3rd in total offense and rushing offense, 6th in passing offense, 7th in scoring offense). In contrast, the GIants have the absolute worst offense in the NFL (25th in passing defense, dead last in total defense, rushing defense and scoring defense).
Buffalo Bills -3 at Las Vegas Raiders
This is a classic strength versus weakness battle. Buffalo has the offense (4th in total offense, 3rd in scoring offense, 2nd in passing offense) whereas Las Vegas has problems stopping anybody (22nd in passing defense, 25th in scoring defense, 27th in total defense, 28th in rushing defense). Bills get to 4-0 and cover doing it.
Philadelphis Eagles +7 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco still wins this game, as they are very comfortable with Nick Mullens behind center. But, their injuries have to start catching up to them at some point, right? Even in Philadelphia doesn't win, they have to start playing better at some point also. The Eagles have offensive line problems, but the entire starting defensive line for the 49ers is injured. San Francisco may win, but don't cover.
Green Bay Packers -7 v. Atlanta Falcons
I have said it before and I will say it again. This is about the Aaron Rodgers internalized revenge against the Packers for having the audacity to use a high round draft pick to take a quarterback to possibly replace me instead of giving me any more weapons tour. A little long-winded, sure, but apropos.
Kansas City Cheifs No Line v. New England Patriots
Right now they are going to play Tuesday, but nobody knows for certain, and no line has been set. I will make a pick when it is, but it is likely going to be Kansas City anyway, because Brian Hoyer is starting at QB for New England.
Big Bet
I have said it before and I will say it again. This is about the Aaron Rodgers internalized revenge against the Packers for having the audacity to use a high round draft pick to take a quarterback to possibly replace me instead of giving me any more weapons tour. A little long-winded, sure, but apropos.
The spread is a little high for me for a big bet, but I get Aaron Rodgers on an MVP-type roll (and Aaron Jones also), and at home in a big prime time game. Plus, it worked last week for me!
The other game I gave serious consideration to choosing for this slot was Dallas -4 v. Cleveland, but I trust Aaron Rodgers more.
Last Week's Record: 9-7
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0Year-to-Date Record: 27-20-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 3-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $280
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $950
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