My first huge week of the year. I usually have 2 or 3 of those, to counteract 3 or 4 really bad weeks, with the rest all within a game or so either way. So, I will take the big week when all 16 teams are playing (no byes), as that makes the winning just so sweet (and gives me a cushion for the inevitable poor showing).
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
I took the home team on a short week, and no, I am not ashamed. I will just take the "L".
Chicago Bears +3 at Atlanta Falcons
Everything about this game tells me to take the Falcons. Their offense is humming despite being 0-2; whereas the Bears have squeaked by Detroit and the New York Giants to be 2-0. But, the Falcons already suspect defense (31st in total defense, 31st in pass defense, 32nd in scoring defense) lost first round pick and starting corner A. J. Terrell for the game due to a positive Covid-19 test. At least the game didn't get canceled.
Buffalo Bills -2 v. Los Angeles Rams
I actually think the Rams are the better team, and their offense is 3rd in rushing AND 9th in passing (5th overall). But, I try not to overthink things and the Rams are a west coast team travelling west and playing in the early game, which I almost always try to bet against. It is easier to do when Buffalo has the 3rd best total offense and the 5th best total defense.
Cleveland Browns -7 v. Washington Football Team
I have no idea what to think of the Browns. Seven points seems really high so I should take Washington, but sometimes when that bet looks just too easy, go the other way, especially when Washington has the 31st ranked offense in the league.
Tennessee Titans -3 at Minnesota Vikings
Say what you will about the Vikings, but they are consistent. They rank 30th in total offese AND total defense.
New England Patriots -6 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders
Two things at play here: (1) A west coast team travelling east for the early game; and (2) The Raiders are on a short week having played on Monday night. That, and this Belichick coached team is remarkably balanced, ranking 8th in passing offense and 9th in rushing offense.
New York Giants +3 v. San Francisco 49ers
Nobody knows what we will be getting from this 49ers team, having lost their entire defensive line and their quarterback last week. Yes Saquon Barkley is out for the Giants, but they are playing at home and they spread the ball out well against the Bears last week.
Philadelphia Eagles -4 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow has played remarkably well, and has a much higher passer rating than Carson Wentz. But, he doesn't get to play against his own defense like Wentz does today.
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 v. Houston Texans
Stop me if any of this surprises you. Pittsburgh has the best rush defense, the 7th best pass defense, the 2nd best total defense and 6th best scoring defense. Watson, lost his best receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
New York Jets +11 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
Listen, I know the Jets stink. Badly. But 11 1/2 is a big spread consider Indaianapolis' offense is 31st in third down conversions (gotta keep the ball to score). That being said, it will be hard for the Jets to move the ball against the Colts. Still, give me that many points and I'll say 28-17 Indy.
Los Angeles Chargers -6 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers
Mike Davis is an adequate replacement for an injured Christian McCaffrey, but nobody in this league is McCaffrey. At least Teddy Bridgewater did't receive a punctured lung from his own training staff.
Arizona Cardinals -5 1/2 v. Detroit Lions
The Lions were steamrolled by Green Bay after DeAndre Swift's heart-breaking, game-ending drop against the Bears in week 1. Their misery continues against a good-looking Cardinals team that - since they play in the NFC West - needs to win as many of these non-divisional games as possible.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 at Denver Broncos
Because you can't have enough road favorites. (That is sarcasm, but besides this is only number 2 of those this week).
Seattle Seahawks -5 v. Dallas Cowboys
Seattle is GOOD, offensively. Their defense is great against the run (2nd in the league), but paltry elsewhere (last in passing defense and total defense, 20th in scoring defense). So, if Ezekial Elliott can establish any bit of a running game, the could have a chance. But, they would still have to stop the Seahawks, with the 25th ranked total and scoring defense. Not going to happen.
Green Bay Packers +3 at New Orleans Saints
Aaron Rodgers is on fire; Drew Brees is not. Green bay has the best total offense, rushing offense and scoring offens in the NFL (and 4th in passing), with the 10th best total defense. New Orleans has been struggling on offense and are again without record-setting receiver Michael Thomas.
Kansas City Chiefs +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
Yes Baltimore's defense is amazing so far. But, Mahomes and his weapons can score against anyone. And I get points? Yes please!!!
Big Bet
Green Bay Packers +3 at New Orleans Saints
Aaron Rodgers is on fire; Drew Brees is not. Green bay has the best total offense, rushing offense and scoring offens in the NFL (and 4th in passing), with the 10th best total defense. New Orleans has been struggling on offense and are again without record-setting receiver Michael Thomas.
Although there were a couple of easy-looking bets on the board, I feel that Aaron Rodgers is on a mission to prove to the Packers - and the world - that he was not ready for them to draft a quarterback to "replace" him.
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 18-13-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 2-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $700
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $670
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