Picks of the Week

 

So, my expected backslide did, in fact, occur.  Actually, the pick's weren's so bad (8-8), but the dam big bet got me.  Without going back to look at it, I believe that is 3 big bet losses in a row.  I need to fix that for sure.  In this penultimate regular season week, let's fix that, OK!  Interesting football week this week as for most people it is the fantasy football championships.  I am not in those either, but my wife is!!!  Let's Go Gator Bait!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Tennessee Titans +14 v. Dallas Cowboys

Took a lot of flak for this pick with everybody and their brother not playing for Tennessee - and Josh Dobbs playing - but it turns out ot be a push.  Home team on a short week, ya'll.

Detroit Lions +5 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

Too many people out for the Bears, like offensive lineman and Jack Sanborn.  The good news - the number 1 pick is in play!!!  (And then a trade back to the Colts for the fifth pick, 2 other firsts, a second, and a switch of fifths.  While still landing Will Anderson!

Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. New Orleans Saints

Gardner Minshew can put points up on the board.  New Orleans will give him some trouble as they are 2nd in passing defense, but, the offense just isn't putting up enough points this year (22nd in the league.)

Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carolina has won 3 of its last 4 games.  Could it be that we all dramatically underestimated Sam Darnold?  I don't think so, but Tampa hasn't exactly been world beaters either, so I will take the points and assume this will be a close game.

Denver Broncos +12 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Wholesale changes after a Christmas Day ass-whooping have to account for being able to cover a double-digit spread against a division-rival, right?

New York Giants -5 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

I have not been sold on the Giants all year, but Indianapolis is playing on a short week this week, and look rudderless last week anyway.  Probably a good opponent for a team fighting for the playoffs.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 at Houston Texans

Jacksonville is riding a three-game winning streak, all against playoff-competitive teams, and although I don't usually like giving points to a divisional rival at home, Houston's offense is putrid (26th in passing; 30th in rushing; 30th in scoring; 32nd - last - in total offense.)

Arizona Cardinals +6 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

David Blough versus Desmond Ridder - a stunning QB battle.  But, the last time we questioned David Blough, he threw the ball around the field.  And, in a game with likely little scoring, I will take the points.  Plus, the one thing the Falcons do well offensively is run the ball, but Arizona is a competent 12th against the run, so the score should stay close.

Cleveland Browns +2 at Washington Commanders

Deep in my heart, I feel that Carson Wentz will give the Commanders the same type of jolt as Taylor Heniecke first gave them when he started.  However, teams are 1-14 this year in the week after playing the San Francisco 49ers, and guess who Washington played last week?

New England Patriots -3 v. Miami Dolphins

The starting carousel is swinging at full speed for the Miami Dolphins, and I am not just talking about quarterback.  Key players at basically every position will be out today.

New York Jets -2 at Seattle Seahawks

It appears that Seattle is spent, having lost 3 in a row and 5 of their last 6.

San Francisco 49ers -9 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

This is a HUGE line on the road, but with the craziness going on in the Raiders with the benching of Derek Carr in favor of Jarret Stidham, who although has some athleticism and talent, will be making his first start against the number total defense, scoring defense and rushing defense in the NFL!!!

Los Angeles Rams +6 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

I have said this before, but the Chargers are a different team when they have Mike Williams and Keenan Allen on the field, and that is all for the better.  But, they are on a short week, so I am taking the points, hoping last week's 51-point burst rejuvenated the Rams enough to keep this close.

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings will likely know whether Philly won or lost before they take the field today (and assuming a San Fran win already), so they will need this game to stay in the hunt for the one (or 2) seed in the NFC.  Problem is, this game is in the 4 p.m. Eastern slot, so the Noon Nightmare cannot emerge.  Plus, this Packers team is looking like Rodgers will lead them to a first round exit from the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 at Baltimore Ravens

This game should be really close, especially given the 16-14 Baltimore win just 3 weeks ago.  In the last 4 weeks the Ravens have scored 17, 3, 16 and 10 points.  Any extra points - like the plus 2 in the spread - is welcome in this game.

Cincinnati Bengals +1 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Cincinnati is only one-game behind the Bills in the race for the one-seed in the AFC.  And Buffalo, despite winning, has not seemed dominant.  Even the Bears stayed with them for 3+ quarters last week.  I hate to pay hunches, but the fact that the teams are pretty evenly matched (2nd and 5th offenses, 7th and 10th defenses); means I have to choose somehow.

Big Bet:

New York Giants -5 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

I have not been sold on the Giants all year, but Indianapolis is playing on a short week this week, and look rudderless last week anyway.  Probably a good opponent for a team fighting for the playoffs.

Nick Foles' lack of mobility will cause at least one really bad turnover which helps the Giants cover the spread because of a short field.  But really, the Colts rushing defense is 20th in the NFL, and the Giants behind Saquon Barkley are 6th in rushing, so that should get it done.

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  122-109-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($245)

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($115)

Picks of the Week

 

So the damn big bet got me this past week, as I finished with more wins than losses, but still lost money.  Guess I need to pay more attention to the big bet.  For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Denver Broncos -3 v. Indianapolis Colts

God was this awful.

Green Bay Packers -8 v. New York Giants (in London)

This game is coming to us from Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.  I feel like Green Bay will win big because they are basically the Tottenham Hotspur of the NFL, so this should feel like a home game.

Minnesota Vikings -7 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

The Bears still have not given up a touchdown in the second half.  I don't know if that streak will continue, but it probably won't matter.

Detroit Lions +3 at New England Patriots

Let the Bailey Zappe era begin (and end!)

Pittsburgh Steelers +14 at Buffalo Bills

This is just a lot of points.

New York Jets +3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

You would be shocked if I told you that the Jets total offense was better than the Dolphins (8th to 10th) and the Jets defense was WAY better than the Dolphins (8th to 28th.)  Yes I will take the points at home.

Atlanta Falcons +10 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a lot of points considering that the Buccaneers only score 20.5 points per game, and Atlanta is actually 8th in scoring offense in the league.

New Orleans Saints -5 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle's defense is next-to-last in the NFL is total defense and scoring defense, 29th against the rush and 28th against the pass.

Jacksonville Jaguars -7 v. Houston Texans

I honestly had no idea what I was going to do here, but Jacksonville is the 6th leading scoring team in the NFL, and the Texans are only 26th.  That is as good a place to start as any.

Tennessee Titans -1 at Washington Commanders

I still love typing "Commanders" instead of "Football Team" and "Racists."  This game should be one that nobody wants to watch.

Cleveland Browns +1 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles is a west coast team travelling east playing in the early game, so of course I am picking the Browns.

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

I was thinking this would be 3 1/2 or 4 points, but I am still taking it at 6 1/2.  Carolina is last in the league in total offense and 18th in total defense.  Those numbers are not going to get it done.

Dallas Cowboys +5 at Los Angeles Rams

The teams are remarkably similar on offense (Rams 26th; Dallas 28th), but Dallas's defense is much, much better.  Los Angeles's defense just doesn't look the same.  Perhaps Von Miller was important?

Philadelphia Eagles -5 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona has been incredibly disappointing so far, and the Eagles are great on offense (2nd overall) and defense (3rd overall.)

Cincinnati Bengals +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore is one-sided, this time over-relying on its offense as the defense struggles (30th overall, last in oassing defense, 23rd in scoring defense.)

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Patrick Mahomes loves prime time.

Big Bet:

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

I was thinking this would be 3 1/2 or 4 points, but I am still taking it at 6 1/2.  Carolina is last in the league in total offense and 18th in total defense.  Those numbers are not going to get it done.

Honestly, I hate taking road teams, much less road favorites, for my big bet, but this seems like the easiest game to pick to me.

Last Week's Record:  8-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  32-29-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-1-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($135) 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  $145

Picks of the Week

Gotta love putting in my weekly picks entry this morning, and there is NFL football on!  Great start to a Sunday.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots -17 v. New York Giants
Home team, short week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 2 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers (from London)
Both teams are surprises this year.  Tampa - because they are playing tough with the breakout player of the year in Chris Godwin and the second best run defense in the country; Carolina - because of undefeated as a starter Kyle Allen.  I expect a close game so I am going to take the points.

Baltimore Ravens -11 v. Cincinnati Bengals
This is the year for going against established betting rules, as a double digit favorite in an intra-divisional game usually a big No-No.  But, Cincinnati is 31st in rush defense and will try to stop the Ravens, that are second in rushing offense at 192.2 yards per game.  This does not bode will for the Bengals.

Cleveland Browns +1 v. Seattle Seahawks
Just as I espoused about not staying with traditional betting rules, here I go abiding by one in the face of a line that screams to take the Seahawks.  But, I will stay with the "west coast team travelling east to play the early game rarely cover" rule as I think Cleveland is due for a breakout game after being manhandled by the San Francisco 49ers last week.

New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
I have been as impressed with Gardener Minshew II as anyone, but I am taking the Saints because they are getting points.  If the line was reversed and the Jags were getting 2 1/2 points, I would have to think about it and seriously consider taking it, but it is much more likely that New Orleans wins big, or this game is close, than the Jaguars winning big.

Houston Texans +4 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
I have gone back-and-forth on this game all day, and I have no idea which team to pick.  Take the points.

Washington Racists -4 at Miami Dolphins
Worst game of the year.  I cannot believe that I am taking Washington will giving points.  But, I feel strongly that the Dolphins could go 0-16 against the spread.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
This game should be really exciting as both teams do some things on offense extremely well (Philadelphia 7th in scoring; Minnesota 3rd in rushing).  I will take the points in a game that could go either way.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Only because David Johnson isn't playing, but I could easily see losing this bet.

San Francisco 49ers +3 at Los Angeles Rams
No Todd Gurley for the Rams, and the 48ers defensive line showed their mettle last week against the Browns.  I expect that to continue.  Strength against strength when the Rams have the ball as LA is second in passing offense and the 49ers are second in passing defense.

Tennessee Titans +2 at Denver Broncos
Denver just is not very good, despite their victory last week against the Chargers.  I am taking Tennessee because of their defense (3rd in 3rd down percentage; 6th in scoring defense; 9th in total defense; and 10th in passing defense).

Dallas Cowboys -7 at New York Jets
The return of Sam Darnold, but i have no expectations for New York to perform well, as I have had mononucleosis, and there is no way he performed any football activities at any level until this week.  Dallas has fallen back to earth a bit, and the Jets are just what they need to reassert some type of dominance in a football game.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Delvin Hodges.  Enough said.  But, to counter his first NFL start, Philip Rivers will be making his 214th straight start.  At least Pittsburgh has Paxton Lynch to back up Hodges.

Green Bay Packers -4 1/2 v. Detroit Lions
Aaron Rodgers in a prime time game sounds good to me.  I'll take it.

Byes:  Buffalo Bills. Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Oakland Raiders

Big Bet
New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
I have been as impressed with Gardener Minshew II as anyone, but I am taking the Saints because they are getting points.  If the line was reversed and the Jags were getting 2 1/2 points, I would have to think about it and seriously consider taking it, but it is much more likely that New Orleans wins big, or this game is close, than the Jaguars winning big.
I like a lot of my picks, but didn't love one.  I hate taking a road team as a big bet, but at least I am getting points.

Last Week's Record:  8-7
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  36-42
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  2-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($135)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,215)

NFL Picks of the Week

Sadly, the Bears Super Bowl hopes went "doink, doink", but at least I had Philly plus the points.  Average week, but hopefully this gets easier, at least the way the weather is in half the games should help, but you never know.

The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under.  This allows 12 picks for the weekend.  I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100.  Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts +4 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
So, Kansas City is incredibly high scoring - this we all know.  But, Indianapolis was 5th in scoring this year as well and 10th in scoring defense.  Plus, it is snowing right now in Kansas City, as I just saw a picture from my friend Alison who is currently tailgating at the game (she is from Kansas City).  This game is going to require a stop, and the Colts defense will make enough to keep this close - especially since Kansas City's defense doesn't stop anybody (31st in the league at 405.5 yards per game).

Indianapolis Colts +180 (Bet $100 to win $180) at Kansas City Chiefs
If I think this is going to be close, I have a lot of faith in Adam Vinatieri in kicking field goals in inclement weather, even important ones.  Plus, I like the +180 odds better than the -220 to select the Chiefs.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54
Three unders hit last week, much to my dismay, but bad weather doesn't always mean low scoring.  Sometimes it means defensive backs slipping on coverage, or linebackers losing their footing when trying to wrap up a big back.  It can also mean fumbles in your own territory.  I look for the over to come in this game.

Dallas Cowboys +7 at the Los Angeles Rams
I don't think I am on the Dallas Cowboys are for real and legitimate Super Bowl contenders bandwagon, but I am on the Rams have not looked great for about a month now bandwagon, and the way the Cowboys defense has been playing, the Rams should not run away with this, even if they win.

Dallas Cowboys +270 at Los Angeles Rams (Bet $100 to win $270)
Honestly, I don't know if the Cowboys are actually going to win this game, all I know is that Amari Cooper has changed this offense dramatically - for the better - and Ezekial Elliott has been a monster with the safeties not able to play in the box to cover Cooper over the top.  Plus, the Rams are at -330, and I do not like that risk at all.

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams OVER 48 1/2
Even with Dallas's defense playing extraordinarily well of late, would it shock you if this ended up at least 28-24?  It wouldn't for me.  I'll take the over.

New England Patriots -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
I like the Chargers so much more than the Patriots this year, but the Chargers history in New England, and Phillip Rivers's history against Tom Brady, might just be too much to overcome in the bad weather in Foxboro.

New England Patriots -190 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Bill Belicheck with a bye week to prepare against a warm weather west coast team traveling east to play in the early time slot.  This should be -250.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots UNDER 48
I just don't see a shootout hear.  Maybe something like 24-17,

New Orleans Saints -8 v. Philadelphia Eagles
New Orleans was 13-3 this year for good reason, and this after starting the season with a loss to Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  New Orleans was the third highest scoring team in the league and second in total defense, meaning Nick Foles is going to have to do this by himself.  Besides Drew Brees, who will be playing against Philly's 30th ranked pass defense, the Saints have the most dangerous running back in the game in Alvin Kamara - because of his versatility.  Here is where the title defense ends.

New Orleans Saints -380 v. Philadelphia Eagles
I thought about hedging my bet here as the Eagles are getting +320, but New Orleans likely beats Philly last year if not for that ridiculous Stefon Diggs last second catch-and-run in the playoffs to knock the Saints out.  This playoff run is a long-time coming for the Saints.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints OVER 51 1/2
Did I mention Philadelphia's 30th ranked pass defense?

Big Bet
Dallas Cowboys +7 at Los Angeles Rams
I just feel the league, starting with the Bears loss, and continuing through the Philly loss the following week, might have found a way to slow down the Rams.

Last Week's Record:  7-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  131-126-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($105)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($985)

Picks of the Week

Driving to the Artist Formerly Known as the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, so no real time to explain all of my picks, as I am typing these on my phone.  At least I did give them some thought agfer going over .500 last week.

On to the picks:

Houston Texans -7 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles (in London) - If someone has only watched the games in London over the past few years, that person would think Blake Bortles belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Chicago Bears -8 v. New York Jets

Carolina Panthers + 2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Detroit Lions -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Denver Broncos +9 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Washington Racists pick 'em at New York Giants

Cleveland Browns +8 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Indianapolis Colts - 3 at Oakland Raiders

San Francisco 49ers -1 at Arizona Cardinals

Green Bay Packers +9 at Los Angeles Rams

New Orleans pick 'em at Minnesota Vikings

New England Patriots - 13 1/2 at Buffalo Bills (Why not?)

Big Bet:

Washington Racists pick 'em over New York Giants

Last Week's Record:  8-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 53-48-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-5

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($25)

Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($505)