Picks of the Week

 

A winning week, but just 2 plays away from a HUGE week, as the Big Bet pushed, and the Patriots covered on a last-minute punt return.    UGH!!!  But, I will take a winning week for sure.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Detroit Lions +9 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Dallas Cowboys -10 v. New York Giants

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 v. New England

Home teams on short weeks cover just over 2/3rds of the time, and that is exactly what happened here!  A Micah Parsons unsportsmanlike conduct penalty which directly led to a Giant touchdown with 12 seconds left is the only thing that kept this from being a sweep!

New York Jets -7 v. Chicago Bears

A lack of Justin Fields, and a lack of Zach Wilson, wins this for the Jets.  And let's be straight - Justin Fields SHOULD NOT play!

Denver Broncos -1 at Carolina Panthers

In a captivating 22nd overall offense versus 32nd overall offense, I'll take the 2nd ranked defense.  Plus, Denver is in the Mountain Time Zone, not the Pacific, so the 1:00 start time doesn't worry me as much.

 

Washington Commanders -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta barely survived the bad defense that is the Chicago Bears, and Washington is much, much better in that part of the field (5th overall, 6th against the rush).  This Washington team seems rejuvenated by Taylor Heinecke and with the re-emergence of Antonio Gibson.

Houston Texans +14 at Miami Dolphins

Two touchdowns is a lot of points to give up at the start of an NFL game.  Houston with a backdoor cover, maybe?

Tennessee Titans +1 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, this Bengals team is a pass-first, run-second offense (4th in the NFL, 28th in the NFL respectively).  But, at least the threat of Joe Mixon could slow down a safety every now and then.  Now, with no Joe Mixon, Joe Burrow is going to have to do it all, likely without J'Marr Chase.

Cleveland Browns +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is largely a pick on emotion.  Not my emotion, but picking on Cleveland's emotion.  This might be Jacoby Brissett's last start as DeShaun Watson is due back, and he is coming off a 324 yard, 3 touchdown game.  Brissett's audition for a team for next year goes well.

Baltimore Ravens -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars

This is just a gut bet as statistically these teams are very similar (Baltimore 14th total offense and 16th total defense; Jacksonville 8th total offense and19th total defense), except in scoring.  Baltimore scores just enough to cover - 27-20.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Arizona Cardinals

In this game of mediocrity, I will take points at home, especially with Kyler Murray returning.  Well, that was my initial thought, but then I remembered that Arizona played on Monday night, so the Chargers it is.  Stay with the rules and you cannot overthink these things.  Or can I?  Ugh!

Las Vegas Raiders +4 at Seattle Seahawks

The Raiders are riding the high of last week's overtime victory over the Broncos, and continue on an upward trajectory to the 15th pick in the draft.

New Orleans Saints +9 at San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco wins this, but on a short week it is closer than it ordinarily would be.

Los Angeles Rams +15 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Wow how the Super Bowl Champs have fallen.  15 1/2 POINTS?!!!  Seriously?  Kansas City jumps out early only to have a late letdown to win 35-24.

Philadelphia -6 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Green Bay is averaging 222.3 passing yards a game.  Philadelphia is averaging 228.1, and they have a better running game and defense.

Pittsburgh +2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Sam Ehlinger is still awaiting his first passing touchdown, and Kenny Pickett has started to play a little better the last couple of games.  Not great, but better.

Big Bet:

Washington Commanders -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta barely survived the bad defense that is the Chicago Bears, and Washington is much, much better in that part of the field (5th overall, 6th against the rush).  This Washington team seems rejuvenated by Taylor Heinecke and with the re-emergence of Antonio Gibson.

I seriously don't like any of these that much.  I considered Denver, because I think they will win, but I don't want to take a road favorite, even if only 1 point.  I thought about Tennessee as Cincinnati is without Joe Mixon, but Cincinnati beat Tennessee at Tennessee last year while giving up 1,400 sacks in the game.  So, I'll take the Commanders at home.

Last Week's Record:  7-5-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  79-77-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-4-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $150

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($700)

Picks of the Week

 

Another approximately .500 week, but capped off by a big bet loss, mostly because of a fluke ending quarter for the Bears, but that is a game that should have ended differently - the crazy lament of the gambler.  In Boston today, so all I hear is Patriots, Patriots, Patriots.  I super hope that all of this doesn't subliminally affect any AFC East picks.  Lets see ...

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Home team on a short week.  Glad the Packers lost, hate it for my picks.

Chicago Bears +3 at Atlanta Falcons

So the Bears defense has been significantly underperforming the offense this year (who would have ever thought that).  But that being said, Atlanta's offense is the 26th ranked in the league.  Both teams are great offensively on third down (7th and 8th), and horrible on third down defense (31st and 29th).  This is a recipe for a close game so I will take the points.

Indianapolis Colts +6 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I really don't like this pick, but I am trying not to overthink it.  Philadelphia is on a short week, having played a tough game on Monday night.  Indianapolis has the 4th ranked defense, so they could keep this close, even if Philadelphia wins.

 

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Pacific time zone team only traveling to the central time zone, not eastern, but they bring with them the worst total offense in the NFL and the worst rushing offense in the NFL.   Defense is still stout (4th in rushing, 4th overall), but this is much more than just a Super Bowl hangover.

Houston Texans +3 v. Washington Commanders

I also don't like this pick, but the Commanders are coming off a hugely emotional win on Monday night, and the combination of a letdown and a short week means Washington wins 21-20.

New York Jets +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Bill Belichick blah, blah, blah, can't be outcoached in a big game, blah, blah, blah, no way the Jets can take over 1st place in the AFC East, blah, blah, blah.  New England has the 27th ranked offense, and the Jets have the 6th best total defense (9th in passing, 11th in rushing).  Jets with points, yes please!

Detroit Lions +3 at New York Giants

Are the Giants the better team?  Yes.  Are the Giants playing at home?  Also yes.  But, Detroit has the 7th best total offense, which is balanced between passing (8th) and rushing (10th).  Detroit also has the worst defens in the NFL, both total and scoring, but the Giants are only 22nd in scoring.  This means a big game for Saquon Barkley that results in a 30-28 victory.

Carolina Panthers +13 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Two touchdowns is a lot of points.  This will probably happen then, since I have been generally bullish on the double digit underdogs to little avail.  I am hoping that Baltimore welcoming back Gus Edwards keeps them just rusty enough to not cover, and Baker Mayfield is just feisty/angry enough to keep this close-ish.

Cleveland Browns +8 at Buffalo Bills

I seem to be a big fan of the underdogs today, and that train continues rolling as the Bills have two consecutive losses, and two relatively close games prior.  I'll take Nick Chubb and the points.

Denver Broncos -2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Derek Carr's emotion during last week's press conference could galvanize the team, but it is more likely that the Raiders find it difficult to score against the best scoring defense, and number 2 total defense in the NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Cincinnati appears to have figured out their offense sans J'Marr Chase.  They will need Burrow to keep up his 102.6 passer rating in order to avenge their early-season loss to the Steelers.

Dallas Cowboys +1 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

This game is in the 4 p.m. time slot, which means that Kirk Cousins will probably underperform.  Seriously, the Noon Nightmare (the 1:00 eastern time slot starts at noon in Minneapolis) is a much better quarterback during the early games.  Yes, his failings ordinarily occur during prime time games, but that must mean he plays progressively worse throughout the day.

Kansas City Chiefs -5 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

A healthy Keenan Allen makes this Chargers offense immensely better, however, we don't necessarily know if Keenan Allen is going to be fully healthy yet.

San Francisco 49ers -8 at Arizona Cardinals

Colt McCoy.

Byes:  Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Big Bet:

Chicago Bears +3 at Atlanta Falcons

So the Bears defense has been significantly underperforming the offense this year (who would have ever thought that).  But that being said, Atlanta's offense is the 26th ranked in the league.  Both teams are great offensively on third down (7th and 8th), and horrible on third down defense (31st and 29th).  This is a recipe for a close game so I will take the points.

I am going to the well for a second straight week, as I think the Bears getting points are much more dangerous than when the gave points to Detroit.  My other thoughts were the Jets, but I didn't want to bet against Belichick; Denver, except they have been so erratic offensively, and the Bye against the Jaguars, but nobody would take that bet.

Last Week's Record:  7-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  72-72-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-4-1

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($235)

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($850)

Picks of the Week

 

A bad week, which although just under .500 was capped with a big bet loss, that I knew was a bad pick.  I even mentioned during the pick.  Oh well, perhaps that will count as a good sacrifice to the gambling gods which could help with this week.  Another unpopular Thursday night pick,  which became a home-team/short-week victory for me.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Home team on a short week.  Worked out, AGAIN!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle has been better this year, but it is a heckuva long way to travel from Seattle to Germany, and is it possible that Brady's game-winning drive turns the season around for the Buccaneers?  At the very lease, I feel like Brady is starting to really trust Otten.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

I believe we have witnessed the ascension of Justin Fields!

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

I am not sure that Tennessee can score enough points. Sure, Derrick Henry is having another stellar year, but Tennessee is 26th in total defense and last in total offense.

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Believe it or not, but Cleveland has a better offense (4th) than Miami (5th), and a better defense (14th) than Miami (23rd), but Miami's team is way more explosive, and those total offense numbers are hindered by Tua being out a couple of games.  Miami covers at home.

New Orleans Saints -1 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Alvin Kamara is the difference-maker in this game, although it does look like T.J. Watt will be back.  New Orleans is just better offensively (6th v. 28th) and defensively (11th v. 29th).  I don't like that New Orleans is on a short week.

Minnesota Vikings +3 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Case Keenum is a professional quarterback, and likely could be starting somewhere, but he is no Josh Allen.

New York Giants -4 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Giants coming off a bye, and even though Dameon Pierce is having a great season, he cannot do it alone, which it seems like he is being asked to do.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

How did Patrick Mahomes throw for 446 yards last week and Kansas City only score 20 points?  That will not happen this week.

Las Vegas Raiders -4 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Jeff Saturday has an inauspicious start, bascially because of a rookie quarterback, Sam Ehlinger.

Dallas Cowboys -4 at Green Bay Packers

Green Bay continues their tumultuous fall, making the Pittsburgh Steelers question not taking Green Bay's second-round pick for Chase Claypool because they thought Chicago's would be a better pick.

Los Angeles Rams -3 v. Arizona Cardinals

And we thought this would be an important game when the season started.

San Francisco 49ers -7 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers offense has performed admirably without Keenan Allen(4th in passing), but they really need Allen against the number 1 defense in the NFL.  Plus, San Francisco gets Deebo Samuel back.

Washington Commanders +11 at Philadelphia Eagles

Double digit is way to much for an intradivisional battle.  Philadelphia wins 30-20.

Byes:  Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, New York Jets

Big Bet:

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

I believe we have witnessed the ascension of Justin Fields!

No, I am not reading too much into last week, as the offense was spectacular against a tough Dallas defense the prior week.  Detroit's defense is last in the NFL in total defense, scoring defense, abd 3rd down defense, 31st in rushing defense and 29th in passing defense.  Chicago is 1st in rushing in the NFL, and 9th in third-down conversions.  Fields keeps several drives alive with big third-down plays.

Last Week's Record:  6-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  65-65-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-3-1

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($335)

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($615)

Picks of the Week

 

Another .500 week, but with the Big Bet being spot-on again, I inch a little closer to the break-even point.  (Yes, I know that cursed me to lose the big bet this week.)  So, a winning record overall, and just a bit in the red for the year, it might be time for me to make my move.  Also, starting off with a Thursday win that practically everybody doubted is a good start.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Houston Texans +14 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Home team on a short week.

Miami Dolphins -4 at Chicago Bears

The Bears have some good young cornerbacks in Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, but against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle the problem is that they are  young.  Oh yeah, and Johnson is out.  Give me Tuanigamanuolepola for the win!

Minnesota Vikings -3 at Washington Commanders

I really hate taking two road favorites in a row, but I feel like I have to do that here.  Taylor Heinecke is a decent option at quarterback, but this teams just doesn't score enough points.  For Washington to have a chance, they are going to have to get off the field on third-down, something that they are third-best in the NFL at doing.  They just don't have enough firepower.

Carolina Panthers +7 at Cincinnati Bengals

Honestly, I think Cincinnati is angry at how they lost Monday night and might be raring to come out firing against a bad Panthers team.  However, their firepower is limited without J'Marr Chase (Higgins and Boyd are excellent, but Chase just puts so much pressure on a defense.)  Plus, it is a short week for Cincinnati.

Buffalo Bills -11 at New York Jets

This is preposterous.  An 11 point favorite on the road in an intra-divisional battle.  However, I am so old that I remember when the Jets were on eof the best passing teams in the league.  That was way back when Joe Flacco was starting and not third-string, a postition to which he was recently demoted.  Now, the Jets are 14th in passing.  The Bills, are 1st in total offense, 3rd in scoring offense, 1st in scoring defense, and 3rd in total defense.  Loooooooong day for Zach Wilson.

New England Patriots -5 v. Indianapolis Colts

These Patriots might be the worst 4-4 team of all time.  They are 21st in total offense, 19th in total defense, but would you want to go against a Belichick defense if you were a rooke quarterback, huh Sam Ehlinger?

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

All of Jacksonville's losses have been within 1 score, which means they will keep in close.  Never trust a west coast team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, as they fail to cover approximately 2/3 of the time.  Plus, Darren Waller is out.

Detroit Lions +4 v. Green Bay Packers

A home underdog in a division rivalry game always seems right.  But, especially this game as Green Bay must be downtrodden after doing ABSOLUTELY NOTHING at the trade deadline, including losing Chase Claypool to the Bears because Pittsburgh thinks Chicago's 2nd round draft pick will be higher than Green Bay's.  Perhaps not the way Green Bay is playing.

Atlanta Falcons +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

First, the Chargers (along with the Raiders) have to be the most disappointing team in the NFL.  As far as this game goes, Atlanta is 5th in rushing, and the Chargers are 27th in rushing defense.  The Falcons are 6th in scoring and Los Angeles is 31st in scoring defense.  Plus, the Chargers are a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time zone slot.  Wait, anybody know the numbers on this during "fall back" weekeng?

Seattle Seahawks +2 at Arizona Cardinals

Seattle, seriously, is the 4th-highest scoring team in the NFL.  Arizona is the 30th-ranked scoring defense team.  Plus, Kenneth Walker moving into the starting lineup has been a serious game-changer for Seattle.  This kid is a star!

Los Angeles Rams +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I honestly didn't know what to do with this game at first.  Both teams are disappointing, and are not playing up to their potential.  These are the two worst rushing offenses in the league.  Both have pretty good to great defenses.  I'll just take points.

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Double digits are always a lot, but double digit favorites have covered more than they should have already this year.  Patrick Mahomes and his #2 passing offense in the NFL is facing the 24th-ranked passing defense.  And, he has a new toy in Kadarius Toney (to go with Kelce, Smith-Schuster, Hardman, et. al.).  Derrick Henry is still a beast, but Kansas City can slow him down by taking a big lead (and they have the 3rd best rushing defense.)  Plus, a rookie quarterback is making a start after only throwing 10 passes in his starting debut last week.  Kansas City it is.

Baltimore Ravens -2 at New Orleans Saints

Do not let the 5-3 record deceive you, this Ravens team lost a few games at the very end.  They are still losses, but it means they are better than New Orleans.  Andy Dalton might throw for quite a few yards, but the Ravens should run all over the Saints.  Both teams do a good job of converting 3rd downs (9th/8th), and stopping 3rd downs (8th/6th), so whichever team wins that battle will likely win the game.  My guess is Baltimore because of Lamar's scrambling ability.

Byes:  Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Double digits are always a lot, but double digit favorites have covered more than they should have already this year.  Patrick Mahomes and his #2 passing offense in the NFL is facing the 24th-ranked passing defense.  And, he has a new toy in Kadarius Toney (to go with Kelce, Smith-Schuster, Hardman, et. al.).  Derrick Henry is still a beast, but Kansas City can slow him down by taking a big lead (and they have the 3rd best rushing defense.)  Plus, a rookie quarterback is making a start after only throwing 10 passes in his starting debut last week.  Kansas City it is.

This bet is absolutely nuts for a big bet.  No way should I take a prime time game with this big of a spread.  But seriously, Malik Willis, albeit talented, is a rookie that did not have much big game experience in college.  A Kansas City touchdown plus a key turnover on the next drive makes this a two touchdown lead very quickly.  Other games considered, Miami (except they are on the road), Jacksonville (except they are Jacksonville), Seattle (they are on the road), and New England (quarterback issues and competition with Jones v. Zappe.)  If Zappe was starting, I would have New England here.

Last Week's Record:  7-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  59-58-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-2-1

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $80

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($280)

Picks of the Week

A little bit better last week, so trying to creep out of the red.  Hopefully I can use that momentum to have a big week this week.  A good start by winning Thursday's game, and maybe, just maybe, the London early game can help too.  Let's see.  Was in Jacksonville for the Georgia - Florida game, so travelling today, so I probably won't write much analysis.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Baltimore Ravens +2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Good Thursday night win.  Shaq Barrett did the "Ray Lewis Dance" to taunt Baltimore after a sack.  He then proceeded to tear his achilles.

Jacksonville Jaguars -1 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Somewhere in London, there is a high schooler who cannot understand why Blake Bortles is not still in the league.

Chicago Bears +10 at Dallas Cowboys

Ten points is an awful lot of points in the NFL.  Even though I am sure Dallas wins this game, I will take the points.  I also know the Bears played Monday night, but this is a lot of points.

Minnesota Vikings -4 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona's defense lets them down in this one.

Miami Dolphins -4 at Detroit Lions

The third best passing team versus the 22nd ranked pass defense.  Miami will gain a lot of yards in the air.

New Orleans + 1 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Two exciting offenses, 1 mediocre defense and 1 bad defense.  The bad defense is in Las Vegas.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

Carolina's surprise win came last week.

New England Patriots -3 at New York Jets

Is anybody healthy for the Jets offense?  New England is on a short week, but the Jets just have too many injuries.

Pittsburgh Steelers +10 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I don't particularly like this bet, because Philly could ice this game early, but I don't want to bet on a double digit favorite, even if at home (see Cowboys, Dallas).

Tennessee Titans pick 'em at Houston Texans

Derrick Henry versus the NFL's worst run defense.

New York Giants +3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Saquon Barkley verus the number 29th ranked rush defense in th league.

San Francisco 49ers -1 at Los Angeles Rams

The Super Bowl hangover continues.

Washington Commanders +3 at Indianapolis Colts

We do not know what we are going to get with Sam Ehlinger at quarterback, but I would expect some rookie mistakes.

Buffalo Bills -10 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

This is a lot of points, but you know what, one of the three double digits will probably be covered by the favorite, and I think it will be this one.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at Cleveland Browns

Cincinnati have won 4 of their last 5, and are just better than Cleveland right now.

Byes:  Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers

Big Bet:

Washington Commanders +3 at Indianapolis Colts

We do not know what we are going to get with Sam Ehlinger at quarterback, but I would expect some rookie mistakes.

I am just wondering how psyched Montez Sweat is to be going against a rookie quarterback in his first start!

Last Week's Record:  7-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  52-51-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $80

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($360)

Picks of the Week

 So last week was my worst week of the year.  Not only did I fall under .500, but I lost the big bet - a big bet that I even wrote was a horrible pick at the time I made it.  Perhaps sometimes I should listen to myself.  Anyway, perhaps a kick-start of a win on Thursday night can bring me out of the red for the season.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Arizaona Cardinals -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Home team on a short week.  This was, finally, a great football game on Thursday night.  Week 1's Buffalo-Los Angeles matchup was a great game by the Bills, but not the Rams, and it was in Week 1, meaning not a short week.  Problem is, we will not get too many games on Thursday nights like this Arizona victory.

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

When teams do not score a lot of points (Indianapolis 17.2 per game and Tennessee 19.2 per game), I am going to want to take the points in the spread.  Plus, Matt Ryan is second in passing yards whereas Tennessee's defense is last in the NFL in pass defense.  This is a tough pick because Derrick Henry could have a huge game against Indianapolis' 20th ranked rush defense.

New York Giants +3 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Yes, the 5-1 Giants are underdogs on the road against Jacksonville.  Although I feel that New York's 5-1 record is not truly indicative of how average a team they are, they seem to come through when it matters most.  Plus, they are tied for 7th in scoring defense.  I'll take the points.

Carolina Panthers +13 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thirteen points in the NFL, on the road, in an intra-divisional game is A LOT of points.  I don't care if they did just trade Christian McCaffrey.  

Washington Commanders +4 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

So, did you know that Green Bay only averages 1 passing yard a game more than Washingon?  Sounds crazy, right?  Well, that changes as the Packers have the number 1 passing defense in the NFL, and Washington cannot run very well (24th in the NFL).  Of course, Brian Robinson is back and he looks lively.  So, you know what?  I am going to take the points, and expect a Taylor Heinicke bump.

Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Detroit can score, as they are 3rd in the league in scoring offense.  But, the are alos last in the league in scoring defense, giving up an average of 32 points per game.  You read that right, 32 POINTS PER GAME!  Dallas's offense has looked pedestrian, at best, under Cooper Rush.  But, Dak Prescott is back.  Dallas makes a statement.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Honestly, this line looks a little high.  It should be about 4 1/2 in my estimation, but I am not an actuary (and THOSE people are the smartest people on the planet.)  Still, I am going to give the points for two reasons:  (1) Cincinati is 9th in passing offense and Atlanta is 31st in passing defense; and (2) Cincinnati is 3rd in third down percentage offense and Atlanta is 30th in third down percentage defense.  Frankly, you can score a lot of points if the other team cannot stop you on third-down.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Our third consecutive 6 1/2 point spread, and trust me, I hate giving points on all three of the games.  But, I am going to do it, most reluctantly on this game and here is why.  Rushing.  But Pepster, Cleveland has the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL led by Nick Chubb, with some Kareem Hunt thrown in.  Correct, they do.  But, Baltimore is 8th in rushing defense, and could slow down the Browns' runners, some.  And, even with J.K. Dobbins out, Kenyan Drake is averaging more yards per carry than Nick Chubb.  Plus, Lamar Jackson is the 4th leading rusher in the NFL himself.

Denver Broncos +1 1/2 v. New York Jets

This pick is amazingly stupid, except there is a reason the spread is only 1 1/2.  First, the Broncos only give up 16 points per game.  Second, the Jets are travelling to altitude.  Third, is it possible that Wilson being out is the ultimate addition-by-subtraction?  Do the Broncos get a Brett Rypien/Josh Johnson bump?  I say yes.  Or even if they don't, Jets win 10-9.  Denver did play Monday night, which does not bode well for this pick, but Russell Wilson will not play today, and I think that makes the difference.

Houston Texans +7 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders might be the most disappointing team in the NFL right now, and, if they really want to make the playoffs, they have to start winning somewhere.  This looks like the right spot for that.  Easy pickings.  But, we know that sometimes the obvious bet isn't the smartest play.  Houston - as is typical in Lovie Smith-led teams - doesn't give up many points (13th in the league), and if they can hold true to that form today, they will win the bet, if not the game.  Josh Jacobs has himself a game, but the Raiders only win 27-21 in a backdoor cover (which I think is my first backdoor cover prediction this season.)

Los Angeles Chargers -5 v. Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith has been playing great football, and Kenneth Walker is an emerging star at running back, but the Chargers have won 3 in a row, doing it primarily by passing the ball with the 3rd best passing offense in football.  AND, Just Herbert gets Keenan Allen back from injury after having not played since week 1.  I hate this pick because the Chargers played Monday night, but Keenan Allen didn't, so I will keep it.

Kansas City Chiefs -1 at San Francisco 49ers

Honestly, I am picking the Chiefs because I believe there will be a over-exaggeration of the impacts on the Christian McCaffrey trade.  First, San Francisco can always run the ball, no matter the running back. Second, more passes to McCaffrey means a few less to Deebo, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle.  Third, that just seems to be the way the NFL works.  Plus, with San Francisco's expected increased reliance on their running game, Kansas City has the defense (4th in the NFL in rushing defense) to try and combat it.  Now, next week's game for the 49ers with a full week of practice for McCaffrey may be a whole different matter.

Miami Dolphins -7 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I hate overexaggerating the effects of one player, or one action, or just one of anything.  But, I am going to do it here.  Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa returns, and means the world to the Dolphins and their 2nd ranked passing offense - which now gets the Steelers and their 30th ranked passing defense.

New England Patriots -8 v. Chicago Bears

I have no faith that the Bears can score meaningful points against anyone, much less a Bill Belichick coached team.

Byes:  Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles

Big Bet:

Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Detroit can score, as they are 3rd in the league in scoring offense.  But, the are alos last in the league in scoring defense, giving up an average of 32 points per game.  You read that right, 32 POINTS PER GAME!  Dallas's offense has looked pedestrian, at best, under Cooper Rush.  But, Dak Prescott is back.  Dallas makes a statement.

More points than I want to give up for a big bet, but worth it in this case, I think.  Dallas's defense has been amazing, and now the offense can be as well.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  45-44-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($445) 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($440)

Picks of the Week

 

An easy win on a big bet salvaged an otherwise losing week.  If one is to select each and every game every week, losing weeks will happen; the key is to make sure those losses are limited and the 49ers definitely helped me there.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Chicago Bears +1 v. Washington Commanders

Despite dominating, Chicago could not pull it out at home.

Minnesota Vikins -3 at Miami Dolphins

Not a big fan of having to take road favorites, but 3 is a small number, and this is the Dolphins of Skylar Thompson.  

New England Patriots +3 at Cleveland Browns

This might be some of the best coaching that Bill Belichick has ever done, and his team is only 2-3.

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I also hate picking west coast teams flying east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, but with Atlanta's 26th ranked defense (29th against the pass), along with their pedestrian offens (22nd overall and 30th in passing), going against the number 1 total defense, number 1 rushing defense and scoring defense, and number 3 passing defense), I'll take my chances with San Francisco.  Especially since they won in the 1:00 time slot at Carolina last week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Ordinarily this would be an absurd bet.  However, Pittsburgh is reeling, and they are still trying to find their footing under Kenny Pickett.  And even though Tampa Bay's office has struggled at times this year, they are still the 3rd passing offense in the league whereas Pittsburgh passing defense is 30th, giving up over 287 yards per game.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at New Orleans Saints

This Saints offense is better than most people would think, ranking 5th in the NFL in total offense, and 10th in rushing and their defense is about the same as the Bengals, but Joe Burrow is returning to the Caesar's Superdome, so I expect him to have a huge game.  Also, the Saints have the 23rd ranked rushing defense so perhaps Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine can get the running game on track.

New York Giants + 5 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore's defense is horrible this year, as they are 28th in total defense, and last in passing defense.  The Giants on the other hand are 2nd in rushing offense, and stingy in giving up points, being 9th in scoring defense.  I think Baltimore wins this game, but the Giants should keep it close.

Green Bay Packers -8 v. New York Jets

On the season, the Jets have a better passing game than the Packers (9th to 19th), but most of that is based upon Joe Flacco's work, not Zach Wilson's.  Strangely, the strength of the Packers this year is defense (2nd in passing defense, 4th in 3rd down defense and 5th in total defense).  Plus, Green Bay has bounced back after every loss this year.  Honestly, I wanted to take the points in this game, but changed my mind as I typed.

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Both of these teams are remarkably similar:  16/13 in total offense; 15/13 in passing offense; 7/6 in total defense; 14/16 in passing defense; 6/4 in rushing defense.  So, being that close, I will take the points, plus the fact that Indianapolis is last in scoring in the NFL.

Arizona Cardinals -2 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

The Geno Smith resurgence is an amazing story, but this Seahawks defense is sooooo bad (last overall, and in rushing defense, 31st in scorind defense and 26th in passing defense).

Los Angeles Rams -10 v. Carolina Panthers

So the Rams are playing nowhere near good enough to be a double digit favorite against anyone, except for all of the news that the Panthers are listening to trade offers for absolutely everyone, including Christian McCaffrey.  That cannot be good for morale.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

This should be the most exciting game of the year, on paper, and points should be flying across the board as both teams average over 30 points per game.  But, Buffalo also has a defense (1st in scoring, 2nd overall, 2nd rushing, 5th passing), which will be the difference in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys being undefeated under Cooper Rush is a nice story, but that is exactly what it is.  They are 27th in passing offense, and 24th in points.  The Eagles have a great offense (2nd overall, 5th in scoring, 5th in rushing, 7th in passing) AND a stout defense (4th overall, 6th passing, 7th scoring, 10th rushing).  The Eagles solidify the top spot in the NFC East.

Los Angeles Chargers -5 v. Denver Broncos

This is definitely strength versus strength - The Chargers passing offense (2nd) versus the Broncos passing defense (1st).  Although Denver may be tough to score against, they also have problems scoring themselves, averaging only 15 points per game.  The Chargers by a touchdown.

Byes:  Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans

Big Bet:

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I also hate picking west coast teams flying east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, but with Atlanta's 26th ranked defense (29th against the pass), along with their pedestrian offens (22nd overall and 30th in passing), going against the number 1 total defense, number 1 rushing defense and scoring defense, and number 3 passing defense), I'll take my chances with San Francisco.  Especially since they won in the 1:00 time slot at Carolina last week.

I am going to regret this by going to the well one too many times but this bet - that goes against all of the rules for a bet in general, much less a big bet - but I will give it a shot.

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  39-36-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-1-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($140) 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  $5