NFL Playoffs - Divisional Roundtable

Pepster: Well, we all survived the horrific wild card round of the playoffs, and it looks like at least some of these games could be competitive, hard-fought playoff games.

Sinickal:  Except the one in New England.

Pepster:  You are truly living up to your name.  Now, what you say is true, but it is truly cynical.

Sinickal: No doubt.

Hopps:  Yup.  And since we are already on the topic, let's just discuss this game first.  It's Foxboro, and they are the Pats.

Sinickal:  New England ran all over Houston in Week 3 of the season, with Jacoby Brissett at the helm.  JACOBY BRISSETT.

Pepster:  Now don't knock my boy Brissett.  He is a hometown boy (at least for me).  Now that being said, Houston was obliterated by a third-string quarterback.  New England.

Sinickal:  I am not even wasting my breath picking.

Hopps:  Yup.

Pepster:  That makes it unanimous.  Let's go to today's first game, Seattle at Atlanta.

Hopps:  Atlanta should have beaten Seattle in Seattle.

Pepster: Very true.  Seattle won that game 26-24, at home and coming off a bye, whereas Atlanta had traveled to Denver the week before, and then came back to Seattle.  Everything favored Seattle in that game.  And now Atlanta gets to host.

Sinickal:  That should be all the difference.  We know how much of a home field advantage Atlanta has.

Hopps:  *Does a spit-take*

Pepster:  True cynical form Sinickal.

Sinickal:  Maybe, but it's true.  Look, I lived there for a while, blocks from the stadium.  Atlanta might have the worst fan support in all of sports - except Miami.

Pepster:  Hey.  That's my home ... OK.  You're right.

Sinickal:  Until Atlanta proves it to me that they can handle this type of pressure, I cannot pick them.  Seattle, although more flawed that in the past few years, has done it when it counts.  And Russell Wilson is as cool under pressure as they come.  I'll take Seattle on the road.

Hopps:  Atlanta.

Pepster:  Matt Ryan threw for 335 yards and Julio Jones had 7 receptions for 139 yards in the earlier game, and now Earl Thomas is out.  I think Vic Beasley has meant a world of improvement for this defense, and Atlanta wins.  Any last thoughts on this game?

Sinickal:  Just a shout to all my old neighborhood peeps that will be watching the game at the Elliott Street Pub!

Pepster:  Seems like as good a time to transition to tomorrow's games, where Pittsburgh at Kansas City has been moved to the evening because of an ice storm.  Let's start there.

Hopps:  Mother nature wins again.

Sinickal:  But that weather is football weather!!!  That should be a great game to close out the divisional round.  Kansas City plays tough, Pittsburgh is Pittsburgh (led by my man crush Mike Tomlin).  Looking forward to this one.

Pepster:  It should be a tough, physical game.  And that is just from assistant coach Joey Porter, who will be on the sidelines.

Hopps:  Too much Killer B's.

Pepster:  You mean the Dolphins defense from the early 1980's?

Hopps:  No, you dope.  Ben, Bell and Brown.

Pepster:  Ah, I thought you mean the 1982 Dolphins defense, with starters Bob Baumhower, Bill Barnett, Lyle Blackwood, Glenn Blackwood, Kim Bokamper, Charles Bowser, Doug Betters and Bob Brudzinski.

Sinickal:  F'in nerd!

Pepster:  We established that last week.

Sinickal:  You established that decades ago.

Hopps:  *Does spit-take*

Pepster:  So, Hopps has Pittsburgh.  Sinickal, I assume you do as well.

Sinickal:  Yes.  My man Tomlin.

Pepster:  If the weather affects the passing game, that hurts Pittsburgh more, as they rely much more on Ben and Brown that Kansas City does on anyone in their passing game.  But, Pittsburgh's running game is stellar, and reliable.  Unlike Kansas City's, where most people can't even name their running backs.  I'll go Pittsburgh.

Hopps;  Get to the Cowboys.  Get to the Cowboys.

Pepster:  Ok, Hopps, Green Bay at Dallas.

Hopps:  DALLAS!

Sinickal:  That figures.  Hopps picks his favorite team.

Hopps:  At least I CAN pick my favorite team.  Where are your Bears.

Pepster: Just waiting for DeShaun Watson to suit up!

Hopps:  Yeah, well we have Dak Prescott, and Zeke.  The rookies will have the day.

Sinickal:  You know what the rookies won't do?  Stop Aaron Rodgers.  That dude is on fire.

Pepster:  Glad you said it, because I can't say his name.  But, even with Jordy Nelson out, Davante Adams has really been the best receiver this year for the Packers anyway.  And, as touchdowns are falling from the sky, we get to yell, "Geronimo".

Sinickal:  Ezekial Elliott is a monster, and if Dallas can find some way to carve up the already porous Packer secondary, this game could become a super high scoring shootout.  That would favor Rodgers, no?

Hopps:  Cowboys!

Sinickal:  That doesn't answer my question.

Hopps:  I don't care - Cowboys!

Sinickal and Pepster:  Just for  your insolence, Packers.

Pepster:  There you have it.  Unanimous for New England and Pittsburgh.  2 for Atlanta (Pepster and Hopps) and 2 for Green Bay (Pepster and Sinickal).  Last week's records:

Sinickal:  4-0
Pepster:  3-1
Hopps:  3-1

Picks of the Week

PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!!

A time to re-set the mindset from the season (even though I finished with three straight winning weeks (percentage-wise, lost a small amount last week).  Let's just dive right in.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
There is no question that the Raiders are the much better team, except for say, they have to start their third-string rookie quarterback for the first time in the playoffs on the road against the NFL's number 1 ranked defense.

Houston Texans -150 v. Oakland Raiders (Bet $150 to win $100)
I think that it goes without saying that if I am going to pick the Texans to win by more than a field goal, that they would win the game outright.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (37 1/2) UNDER
Brock Osweiler hosting Conner Cook.

Detroit Lions +8 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle's defense has been less than stellar since Earl Thomas has went down, and they struggled to defeat the lowly San Francisco 49ers in week 17 after losing to the Arizona Cardinals at home the previous week.  Matthew Stafford has had a helluva season (more yards, more touchdowns and less interceptions than Russel Wilson).  Since the retirement of Calvin Johnson Stafford has been forced to spread the ball around.  He will miss Theo Riddick as a running back, hell, he will miss a running game, but look for Eric Ebron to make a big play or three with Earl Thomas not in the game.

Detroit Lions +325 at Seattle Seahawks (Bet $100 to win $325)
This isn't the same Seahawks teams as in the past.  Thomas Rawls has only averaged 3.2 yards per rush in filling in for the retired Marshawn Lynch, and Christine Michael is in Green Bay.  I really shouldn't trust the Lions, or Matt Stafford for that matter, but the +325 line is too hard to pass up.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (44) OVER
Somebody has to score in the NFL, and since Houston will beat Oakland 12-6, the points have to be scored in this game.

Miami Dolphins +11 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Miami defeated Pittsburgh earlier in the year, but that was primarily because they knocked out Ben Roethlisberger (enter Landry Jones), and because nobody was prepared for Jay Ajayi.  Well, guess what, people are prepared for Jay Ajayi and they still cannot really stop him.  This game stays pretty close, even though Pittsburgh is hot.  The pass rush of Ndamukong Suh inside and Cameron Wake with Dion Jordan (ha - that's funny) outside will put lots of pressure on Roethlisberger.

Miami Dolphins +475 at Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $100 to win $475)
Now I honestly think Pittsburgh is going to win this game, but Pittsburgh is going off at -650 (other sites have between -600 and -650), which means the payoff opportunity is not there.  So, if there is even chance that Miami could win this game - and obviously there is because it already happened earlier this year - I am going to take that chance.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (46) OVER
If both teams hit their statistical averages in scoring, and are around the statistical averages in points allowed, then this is right at the number.  I think it will be a bit more high scoring than that, say, 28-24.

Green Bay Packers -5 v. New York Giants
This is honestly the toughest one for me to pick as I don't know how this game is going to go.  I have not thought that the Giants were very good all year.  They cannot run, and in fact, were outrused by the Packers who are on their 37th starting tailback this season - and he is a Tight End.  The Giants are 23rd in passing defense, which should favor the Packers, but safety Landon Collins has 5 interceptions, and is playing like the best safety in football.  That being said, Aaron Rodgers has been on a roll, having won 6 straight.  I will ake the Packers to win more easily than most think.

Green Bay Packers -230 v. New York Giants (Bet $230 to win $100)
For much of the same reason as outlined above.  I really feel that the Packers are going to win this game outright, and at -230, it isn't that bad of a risk to win $100, especially considering that the Giants are only at +190 (some books at +200).  Give me Aaron Rodgers.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (44 1/2) OVER
Green Bay might score 31 by themselves.


Last Week's Record:  9-7
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  132-121-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($35)

Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,560)

NFL Wild Card Roundtable

Pepster:  It is that time of year, ladies and gentlemen, where the best of the best football players in the world start the competition for Super Bowl Champion.  That's right, it's Wildcard Weekend, with four (almost) scintillating competitions that begin this afternoon.  Let's jump right it, and we will take the games in the order that they will be played.  First up:  Oakland and Houstson.

Sinickal:  Excuse me?  That is the first playoff game of the year?  Can we just fast forward to next week?

Hopps:  I probably won't even watch.

Pepster:  OK,I hear you.  So we don't start off with the most attractive of matchups, especially given the Brock Osweiler/Conner Cook quarterback competition.  Which sounds like something that should be said during training camp for third string.

Hopps:  This is the first time in the Super Bowl era that a quarterback will be making his first career start in the postseason.  Good luck Conner Cook, you are going to need it.

Sinickal:  The over/under on Cook completions should be 2.

Pepster:  That might be a little low, so I'll take that over, but the Texans did finish the season with the number one defense in terms of total yards (but 11th in points).  Good thing for them that they are a whopping 29th in total yards on offense (but they are T28th in points).

Hopps:  Speaking of Houston's defense, I predict that Michael Crabtree will get his chain snatched again.

Sinickal:  That is where we disagree.  Crabtree will be wearing a padlock around his neck.  That might slow him down a bit, though.

Pepster, Sinickal, Hopps (in unison):  Texans.

Pepster:  Let's turn to tonight's game in Seattle as the Seahawks  host the Detroit Lions.  Matthew Stafford has had by most standards, a helluva year, especially given the retirement of Calvin Johnson and virtually every running back on the team.

Sinickal:  Stafford will break his thumb on this throwing hand - because that's what the Lions do.

Hopps:  The Lions haven't won a playoff game since Barry Sanders.  BARRY SANDERS.

Pepster:  Well, both of those may be true, but this isn't the same Seahawks team as the previous few years.  They struggled early (boring close win [12-10] over the Dolphins in week 1 when the Dolphins started pre-retirement Arian Foster), they struggled late (losing at home to Arizona in week 16 and barely beating a despicably bad San Francisco team 25 - 23 in week 17).  They just haven't been the same since Earl Thomas went out.  Part of what makes the "Legion of Boom" great is all of them collectively, and Thomas is likely the best.

Sinickal and Hopps (in unison):  BUT IT'S THE LIONS!

Pepster:  I am going with Detroit.  Stafford throws for 330 and 3 touchdowns.

Sinckal and Hopps:  HA! HA! HA!

Sinickal:  Wait, you're serious?

Hopps:  Given me Seattle.

Sinickal:  Me too.  Good luck with that.

Pepster:  Hopefully tomorrow's games will be more enticing that the dreck we have tonight.  Let's go to the early game where the Miami Dolphins are visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Steelers are a 10 point favorite.  Now, honestly, this I do not understand.  The Dolphins defeated the Steelers earlier this season - albeit at home - after knocking Ben Roethlisberger out of the game.  Their defense bottled up Le'Veon Bell nicely, who only gained 53 yards rushing (+55 yards receiving).  Should this really be a 10 point spread.

Sinickal:  Well, Matt Moore is pretty nice as far as backup quarterbacks go, but I think Ryan Tannehill gets into this game for at least one snap just so he can say he played in a playoff game.  Come to think of it, so will Brock Osweiler!

Hopps:  Not that I am a big Tom Savage fan, but GOOD GOD - BROCK OSWEILER.

Pepster:  Anyway - let's get back to the Dolphins/Steelers game.

Sinickal:  Pittsburgh, easy.

Hopps:  I concur.

Pepster:  It's unanimous.  Steelers.  Primarily because I do not want to see the Dolphins play at New England next week.  Last game, New York Giants at 11-5 travel to the higher seeded Green Bay Packers at 10-6.  Predictions?

Sinickal:  Aaron Rodgers is pushed out at the sideline for a first down in the second quarter next to Eli Manning, where the two set into a heated squabble over who is the greatest playoff QB ever. Strangely missing from that conversation is Joe Montana.

Hopps:  Well, the last two times the Giants went to Green Bay they went on to win a Super Bowl.  Eli has a much better post season record in Green Bay than Aaron Rodgers.

Pepster:  Guys, are we really getting into the minutiae of which quarterback is better in one specific stadium?

Sinickal:  I didn't mean for us to get into that discussion, I just think Eli and Aaron will.

Hopps:  I will get into any argument I want.

Pepster:  Well, I will never give any credit to Aaron Rodgers, so to try to seem neutral, I will compliment Green Bay's left tackle, David Bakhtiari who, with all apologies to Tyron Smith, was the best left tackle in football this year.

Sinickal:  F'in nerd!

Pepster:  No, that is Baltimore Ravens guard John Urschel, who while playing in the NFL just started pursuing his Ph.D. in Mathematics at M.I.T., was named to Forbes "30 under 30" list in the field of science, has had six peer reviewed mathematics papers (with 3 more ready for review), and he specializes in spectral graph theory, numerical linear algebra and machine learning.

Sinickal:  I was talking about you!

Hopps:  Well, you both have points there.

Pepster:  So, who is going to win?

Hopps:  Giants.

Sinickal:  Packers.

Pepster:  Green Bay has gone through Eddie Lacy, James Starks, Knile Davis, John Kuhn, Christine Michael at Running Back, and even Offensive Coordinator Edgar Bennett thought about coming out of retirement before they settled on Tight End Ty Montgomery as their go-to tailback.  They still have a better rushing attack then the Giants.  Packers.

Any last thoughts

Sinickal:  Can we just get to next week?

Hopps:  So you can watch my Cowboys?

Sinickal:  Dope.

Pepster:  See everyone here next week.

Picks of the Week

We are finally at week 17 of what has been an eventful, interesting, and costly NFL Season.  Since we really have no idea who is really going to be playing this week, I should just take this week off, but after three great weeks in a row, I will try to make it four.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Chicago Bears +6 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
My reverse curse of hopefully ending up with DeShaun Watson seems to be working.  A loss here cements the third pick in the draft, unless the 49ers win their second in a row and then the Bears will pick second!

Cincinnati Bengals +1 v. Baltimore Ravens
I have no idea who is going to show up in this game, but I am taking the Bengals because they are at home, and more importantly, I feel that the Ravens will be flat after missing out on the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 v. Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay still has a shot at the playoffs if:  (1) Tampa wins over Carolina; (2) Detroit beats Green Bay; (3) Tennessee defeats Houston; (4) Indianapolis conquers Jacksonville; (5) Dallas knocks off Philadelphia; (6) San Francisco overcomes Seattle; and (7) New York (Giants) tie Washington.  So you are saying there's a chance.  Well, at least it starts here.

Houston Texans +3 at Tennessee Titans
Tom Savage and Matt Cassell in an epic battle of mediocrity.

Jacksonville Jaguars +6 at Indianapolis Colts
Allen Robinson finally made an appearance last week.  Leave it to the Jaguars to play hard for their coach in the two games AFTER he was fired.

Miami Dolphins +7 1/2 v. New England Patriots
New England still has to win (or lose and have help) to maintain home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  That makes this game one of the more interesting ones on the weekend.  The textbook on how to beat Brady is to put pressure on him from the middle - enter Ndamukong Suh - and hit him/sack him - enter Cameron Wake.

New York Jets + 3 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
The Jets can't even effectively bench their starting quarterback, as Ryan Fitzpatrick is again starting.  Look for him to fling it around the field in search of a new team/contract for next year.  Oh yeah, plus E.J. Manual.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have absolutely nothing to play for, and the story is that Dak Prescott, Tony Romo AND Mark Sanchez will all play today.  Philly wins big.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
No two game winning streak for the Browns.  The Steelers are just too much, even if they play backups.

New Orleans Saints +7 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
This could end up being a shootout.  With just a couple of more wins, Drew Brees would likely be the leading MVP candidate.

Washington Racists -7 1/2 v. New York Giants
The Giants have nothing to play for, whereas the Racists still have the opportunity to make the playoffs with a win and the Detroit/Green Bay game finishing in anything other than a tie.  (There is a scenario with Washington ties, Detroit beats Green Bay and Carolina defeats Tampa, but what are the odds that Washington finishes the season with two ties?)

Denver Broncos -1 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
We do not know what we will be getting with Matt McGloin (or as was told to him at Penn State "Pat My Groin").  We do know that the Broncos will be fired up to win one for Gary Kubiak, who is rumored to be retiring due to health issues.

Los Angeles Rams +7 v. Arizona Cardinals
A likely snoozer, but the Rams defense - behind the stellar play of Aaron Donald - will likely keep this one close.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
The Chiefs can still win the division, and possibly have home-field advantage.  That is something to play for as the Chiefs have one of the best home field crowds in the NFL.

San Francisco 49ers +11 v. Seattle Seahawks
Only because Seattle's mind likely won't be in this game for the entirety.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Detroit Lions
The biggest, most important, most anticipated game of the day occurs in the evening, where the winner makes the playoffs and likely knocks the loser out of the playoffs.  In this type of scenario, would YOU bet against Aaron Rodgers?  I wouldn't.

Big Bet
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
No two game winning streak for the Browns.  The Steelers are just too much, even if they play backups.  It's Cleveland, and the point spread seems small.

Last Week's Record:  10-6
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  123-114-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $490
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,525)

Picka of the Week

I am travelling for the holidays, so no analysis, just picks.  Merry Christmas all and enjoy your Saturday NFL games.

New York Giants +1 at Philadelphia

Chicago Bears +3 v. Washington Racists

Miami Dolphins +4 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Atlanta Falcons -3 at Carolina Panthers

Cleveland Browns +4 v. San Diego Chargers

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

 Tennessee Titans -5 at Jacksonville Jaguars

New England Patriots -17 v. New York Jets

Oakland Raiders -3 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Los Angeles Rams -4 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Arizona Cardinals +7 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Cincinnati Bengals +1 at Houston Texans

Baltimore Ravens +6 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Kansas City Chiefs -3 v. Denver Broncos

Detroit Lions +6 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Big Bet - Miami Dolphins (almost went with the Packers)

Last Week's Record:  11-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  113-108-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $700
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($2,015)

Picks of the Week

Week 15, and we are officially in the homestretch.  Finally, a week to celebrate, although I missed by big bet.  Still, 12-4 is fantastic.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Los Angeles Rams + 15 at Seattle Seahawks

Mind you, I didn't think the Rams would actually win this game, but getting more than two touchdowns?!  The Rams lost the first game to Seattle 9-6.  I thought 20-6 was a distinct possibility..

Miami Dolphins -2 1/2 at New York Jets
Miami had won 7 of its previous 8 and the Jets are one of the five worst teams in the league.

Chicago Bears +4 v. Green Bay Packers
We all know that I am picking the Bears in every game hoping that my jinx works so that they can get DeShaun Watson in the draft.  So, here is to the Bears limiting Aaron Rodgers, covering the spread, and hoping Watson slips to the 5th or 6th pick.  It is supposed to be a high of around 5 degrees today, so anything can happen.

Baltimore Ravens -5 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
I am way, way too late on the Ravens this year.  I still don't see how they are 7-6 and in the playoff hunt, but they are.  Mike Wallace has a real chance of going over 1,000 yards receiving on the season in this game.

Buffalo Bills -10 v. Cleveland
It's Cleveland.

Houston -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

I honestly thought that the Texans were done last week against the Colts, but then they pulled out the win in Indianapolis.  If they play the same type of football, they win at home against Jacksonville.  This is the battle of the two worst starting quarterbacks in the league that do not play for Cleveland.

Tennessee Titans +6 at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are having a great season at 10-3, and can clinch a win with a victory today over the Titans.  That still may happen, but the Titans have the 3rd best rushing offense, the 4th best third down percentage and the 3rd best rushing defense.  This should be a battle, and that means the game is close.

Minnesota Vikings -5 v. Indianapolis Colts
Only because the Colts laid an egg last week, and I am hoping that the return of Adrian Peterson is just the spark Minnesota needs to pummel the Colts.  Not sure this is the smart bet, but it is my bet.

Detroit Lions +4 at New York Giants

With Miami, these two teams are the hottest in football with the Lions having won 5 straight games and the Gians having won 7 of their last 8.  Detroit has made it a habit of playing very tight, close games, and this one should be no different.  Therefore, I will take the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Cincinnati Bengals
Taking a road favorite is bad, but especially an intra-divisional game.  Why am I doing it, then?  Well, the Steelers have won 4 in a row, having not once surrendered 100 yards rushing during this streak.  Without A.J. Green, the Bengals need to rely more heavily on their running game, and it looks like that is not going to happen.  Plus, anytime our Patron Saint mouths off, something bad will happen to that team the next game.

New Orleans Saints +3 at Arizona Cardinals
Drew Brees is quietly having one of the best years of his career at age 66.  I don't see where Arizona's defense has the capability of shutting him down.  Larry Fitzgerald is quietly approaching the 100 reception mark, but New Orleans scores enough to keep in this game.

Atlanta Falcons -14 v. San Francisco 49ers
The Falcons are first in points per game, 3rd in passing yards and 3rd in total  yards per game.  Meanwhile San Francisco is 32nd in points per game defense, total yards per game defense and rushing yards per game defensively.  Atlanta should score, A LOT.

New England Patriots -3 at Denver Broncos
New England is 6-0 on the road this season, and coming ever so close to clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.  This is when Belichick is at his best, especially against a one-dimensional offense.  Devontae Booker has not excelled since CJ Anderson went down injured, averaging only 3.43 yards per carry.  Meanwhile, LaGarrette Blount is fifth in the NFL in rushing.

Oakland Raiders -2 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
San Diego is tough, but without a legitimate running game to exploit Oakland's defense, guys like Khalil Mack will feast on the pass rush.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott has failed to reach 200 yards passing in each of his last 3 games.  The Buccaneers defense, which is second best in the NFL in 3rd down percentage, is vastly improved from earlier in the season.  The best receiver in this game - Mike Evans with 80 catches (compared to Dez Bryant's 38).  Yes Ezekial Elliott is a best, but Tampa keeps this game close - and I believe can win outright.

Washington Racists -7 v. Carolina Panthers
Washington is second in the league offensively in total yards and passing yards whereas Carolina's defense is 30th in pass defense.  Kirk Cousins should feast this week.  I wonder whatever happened to Josh Norman ...

Big Bet Game of the Week

Tennessee Titans +6 at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are having a great season at 10-3, and can clinch a win with a victory today over the Titans.  That still may happen, but the Titans have the 3rd best rushing offense, the 4th best third down percentage and the 3rd best rushing defense.  This should be a battle, and that means the game is close.

I would have actually picked Miami in this slot, but with them playing the early game, nobody would have believed me.  I will take the tough running team getting 6 points.

Last Week's Record: 12-4

Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 102-103-5

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 4-10

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):$595

Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($2,715)

He IS Our Patron Saint!

Another great day of NFL football was made even greater yesterday by an epic appearance from our Patron Saint. If you were watching the Cleveland Browns lose their 16th straight game yesterday to the Cincinnati Bengals, you were there for the trainwreck that is pro football in Ohio.

It. Was. Awful.

But. But, it was also fun to see the Browns mascot take a header on the sidelines trying to retrieve a football. It was fun watching Robert Griffin III throw a fleaflicker from his endzone into triple coverage for an interception. And most importantly, it was fun to see our Patron Saint in a post-game interview talking about Terrelle Pryor. I have no idea what prompted this, and since I am not a journalist, I don't care. The video link below (courtesy of FOX19, via Facebook) is all you and I need...

Adam Jones "Trashes" Terrelle Pryor

I only wish that there was a way for him to have made it rain also.