Week 15, and we are officially in the homestretch. Finally, a week to celebrate, although I missed by big bet. Still, 12-4 is fantastic.
My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else, a reminder. Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.
Los Angeles Rams + 15 at Seattle Seahawks
Miami Dolphins -2 1/2 at New York Jets
Miami had won 7 of its previous 8 and the Jets are one of the five worst teams in the league.
Chicago Bears +4 v. Green Bay Packers
We all know that I am picking the Bears in every game hoping that my jinx works so that they can get DeShaun Watson in the draft. So, here is to the Bears limiting Aaron Rodgers, covering the spread, and hoping Watson slips to the 5th or 6th pick. It is supposed to be a high of around 5 degrees today, so anything can happen.
Baltimore Ravens -5 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
I am way, way too late on the Ravens this year. I still don't see how they are 7-6 and in the playoff hunt, but they are. Mike Wallace has a real chance of going over 1,000 yards receiving on the season in this game.
Buffalo Bills -10 v. Cleveland
It's Cleveland.
Houston -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
I honestly thought that the Texans were done last week against the Colts, but then they pulled out the win in Indianapolis. If they play the same type of football, they win at home against Jacksonville. This is the battle of the two worst starting quarterbacks in the league that do not play for Cleveland.
Tennessee Titans +6 at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are having a great season at 10-3, and can clinch a win with a victory today over the Titans. That still may happen, but the Titans have the 3rd best rushing offense, the 4th best third down percentage and the 3rd best rushing defense. This should be a battle, and that means the game is close.
Minnesota Vikings -5 v. Indianapolis Colts
Only because the Colts laid an egg last week, and I am hoping that the return of Adrian Peterson is just the spark Minnesota needs to pummel the Colts. Not sure this is the smart bet, but it is my bet.
Only because the Colts laid an egg last week, and I am hoping that the return of Adrian Peterson is just the spark Minnesota needs to pummel the Colts. Not sure this is the smart bet, but it is my bet.
Detroit Lions +4 at New York Giants
With Miami, these two teams are the hottest in football with the Lions having won 5 straight games and the Gians having won 7 of their last 8. Detroit has made it a habit of playing very tight, close games, and this one should be no different. Therefore, I will take the points.
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Cincinnati Bengals
Taking a road favorite is bad, but especially an intra-divisional game. Why am I doing it, then? Well, the Steelers have won 4 in a row, having not once surrendered 100 yards rushing during this streak. Without A.J. Green, the Bengals need to rely more heavily on their running game, and it looks like that is not going to happen. Plus, anytime our Patron Saint mouths off, something bad will happen to that team the next game.
New Orleans Saints +3 at Arizona Cardinals
Drew Brees is quietly having one of the best years of his career at age 66. I don't see where Arizona's defense has the capability of shutting him down. Larry Fitzgerald is quietly approaching the 100 reception mark, but New Orleans scores enough to keep in this game.
Atlanta Falcons -14 v. San Francisco 49ers
The Falcons are first in points per game, 3rd in passing yards and 3rd in total yards per game. Meanwhile San Francisco is 32nd in points per game defense, total yards per game defense and rushing yards per game defensively. Atlanta should score, A LOT.
Taking a road favorite is bad, but especially an intra-divisional game. Why am I doing it, then? Well, the Steelers have won 4 in a row, having not once surrendered 100 yards rushing during this streak. Without A.J. Green, the Bengals need to rely more heavily on their running game, and it looks like that is not going to happen. Plus, anytime our Patron Saint mouths off, something bad will happen to that team the next game.
New Orleans Saints +3 at Arizona Cardinals
Drew Brees is quietly having one of the best years of his career at age 66. I don't see where Arizona's defense has the capability of shutting him down. Larry Fitzgerald is quietly approaching the 100 reception mark, but New Orleans scores enough to keep in this game.
Atlanta Falcons -14 v. San Francisco 49ers
The Falcons are first in points per game, 3rd in passing yards and 3rd in total yards per game. Meanwhile San Francisco is 32nd in points per game defense, total yards per game defense and rushing yards per game defensively. Atlanta should score, A LOT.
New England Patriots -3 at Denver Broncos
New England is 6-0 on the road this season, and coming ever so close to clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. This is when Belichick is at his best, especially against a one-dimensional offense. Devontae Booker has not excelled since CJ Anderson went down injured, averaging only 3.43 yards per carry. Meanwhile, LaGarrette Blount is fifth in the NFL in rushing.
New England is 6-0 on the road this season, and coming ever so close to clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. This is when Belichick is at his best, especially against a one-dimensional offense. Devontae Booker has not excelled since CJ Anderson went down injured, averaging only 3.43 yards per carry. Meanwhile, LaGarrette Blount is fifth in the NFL in rushing.
Oakland Raiders -2 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
San Diego is tough, but without a legitimate running game to exploit Oakland's defense, guys like Khalil Mack will feast on the pass rush.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Dallas Cowboys
San Diego is tough, but without a legitimate running game to exploit Oakland's defense, guys like Khalil Mack will feast on the pass rush.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott has failed to reach 200 yards passing in each of his last 3 games. The Buccaneers defense, which is second best in the NFL in 3rd down percentage, is vastly improved from earlier in the season. The best receiver in this game - Mike Evans with 80 catches (compared to Dez Bryant's 38). Yes Ezekial Elliott is a best, but Tampa keeps this game close - and I believe can win outright.
Washington Racists -7 v. Carolina Panthers
Washington is second in the league offensively in total yards and passing yards whereas Carolina's defense is 30th in pass defense. Kirk Cousins should feast this week. I wonder whatever happened to Josh Norman ...
Big Bet Game of the Week
Washington Racists -7 v. Carolina Panthers
Washington is second in the league offensively in total yards and passing yards whereas Carolina's defense is 30th in pass defense. Kirk Cousins should feast this week. I wonder whatever happened to Josh Norman ...
Big Bet Game of the Week
Tennessee Titans +6 at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are having a great season at 10-3, and can clinch a win with a victory today over the Titans. That still may happen, but the Titans have the 3rd best rushing offense, the 4th best third down percentage and the 3rd best rushing defense. This should be a battle, and that means the game is close.
I would have actually picked Miami in this slot, but with them playing the early game, nobody would have believed me. I will take the tough running team getting 6 points.
Last Week's Record: 12-4
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 102-103-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 4-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):$595
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($2,715)
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