UGLY, UGLY, UGLY!!! That is the only way to explain last week's results. And this week is likely to be even worse with so many starters not even playing, some teams with incentives, and a lot with not. Who even knows. Prayers and luck this week, for sure.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Baltimore Ravens
Yes, I know I should always pick the home team on a short week, but Pittsburgh needs a win to qualify for the playoffs - with some help - and Baltimore is sitting Lamar Jackson and other starters, and even playing Laquon Treadwell.
Indianapolis Colts +1 /2 v. Houston Texans
Both teams have something to play for, as the winner is in the playoffs, whereas the loser is not. Can't take the visiting team on a short week in both games, and this game should be incredibly close. Now if only Tyler Goodson holds onto the damn ball!!! (Yes I know, it was thrown a bit behind him too.)
New Orleans Saints -3 v. Atlanta Falcons
The winner of this game wins the NFC South at 8-8 IF Carolina manages to upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so this game is important. Sains have won 3 of their last 4, including defeating Tampa Bay last week; whereas the Falcons have lost 3 of their last 4, including being destroyed by the Bears last week and a 9-7 loss to the hapless Panthers.
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
Simply put, there is just too much at stake for Jacksonville, as a win gives them the AFC South title, whereas a loss puts them out of the playoffs entirely. Jacksonville defense has been horrid this year (22nd overall and 27th against the pass), but Tennessee's offense has been equally putrid (27th overall and 28th passing). With Trevor Lawrence and Will Levis both hobbling, could it come down to C.J. Beatherd v. Ryan Tannehill? I think Calvin Ridley finally shows up, and the Jaguars win, even as favorites on the road.
Detroit Lions -4 v. Minnesota Vikings
Does Dan Campbell strike you as someone that lets his foot off the gas? Yeah, me neither.
New England -2 1/2 v. New York Jets
Despite their 4-12 record, New England has been playing tough, close games. And, given that this might be Bill Belichick last game, I expect the Patriots to win this game fairly convincingly.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 at Carolina Panthers
This game is way too eeerily similar to the Jaguars situation. Buccaneers win and their are the NFC South champions; lose and they go home. Also playing the basement-dweller in their division. I imagine that one of these two games is an upset, although I cannot pick either of them to happen. Baker Mayfield rolls.
Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Jeff Driskel starting fot the Browns as Cleveland is stiting a number of its star players. Jake Browning might be playing for a potential starting job on another team for next year, or at least a prime backup role on a squad with an oft-injured QB.
Green Bay Packers -3 v. Chicago Bears
The Bears are playing better than anybody, having won 5 of 7, and in those two losses had double-digit leads into the 4th quarter. But, the Packers have the chance to make the playoffs. And no matter how much ever Bears player and fan hates the Packers and would love to knock them out of the playoffs, Green Bay has much more incentive in this game.
Philadelphia Eagles -5 at New York Giants
God do I hate betting this many road intra-divisional favorites, but the Eagles NEED this. Not so much for the playoffs or the divisional title (although a win with help could give them the latter), but they just need to play a good ball game.
Arizona Cardinals + 3 v. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle has just been playing too many close games. Arizona has the 6th best rushing team in the NFL and Seattle is 30th against the rush. James Conner and Michael Carter for the cover.
San Francisco 49ers -4 v. Los Angeles Rams
Nobody is playing, so who cares. I gotta hope the 49ers depth is better than the Rams depth.
Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. Denver Broncos
This Raiders team has been playing inspired football under Antonio Pierce. If they just had a talented quarterback. I wonder if they would trade this year's, 2025's and 2026's firsts, this year's second, and next year's third for the number one overall pick? Or, instead of 2026's first, throw in a player?
Los Angeles Chargers -3 v. Kansas City Chiefs
We will have a Blaine Gabbert sighting!!! Although to be honest, Kansas City hasn't been amazing even with Patrick Mahomes. I'll take Easton Stick sounds like I am in a craft drink lounge.
Dallas Cowboys -13 at Washington Commanders
Too many points, on the road, in an intradivsional game - except, the Cowboys need this to win the division, and the Commanders aren't playing for anything, except for a trade with the Bears if they like Caleb Williams.
Buffalo Bills -3 at Miami Dolphins
I might as well keep the road favorites train rolling. The Bills are the third-betting favorite to win the Super Bowl, and if they lose this game they miss the playoffs. The Dolphins are without Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle, not to mention their rush edges Jaelen Phillips and Bradley Chubb.
Big Bet:
New England Patriots -2 1/2 v. New York Jets
Despite their 4-12 record, New England has been playing tough, close games. And, given that this might be Bill Belichick last game, I expect the Patriots to win this game fairly convincingly.
Had to select a home team, and at least this will give me a reason to watch this game.
Record
Last Week's Record: 6-10
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 134-108-14
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 7-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($665)
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $920
